Article: The K Brigade: Twins Pitchers on a Strikeout Binge

[Nick Nelson]

Up is down. Black is white. And Twins pitchers are striking everyone out.

 

We've come a long way since the days of 'pitch to contact.' A perfect storm of circumstances has led to a stunning transformation for a Minnesota staff that throughout recent history has reliably – VERY reliably – been among the game's most contact-heavy.With 31 games in the books, Twins pitchers are averaging 9.4 K/9 and striking out 23.5% of batters faced. Such numbers are unheard of around these parts.

 

Now, first, a little context: as you're probably aware, swings and misses are off the charts throughout baseball. April marked the first month in MLB history with more strikeouts than hits. In 2006, the last time Minnesota boasted a true power pitching staff, the team's 7.3 K/9 rate and 19.2 K% both ranked second in the majors. Currently those marks would both be in the bottom five.

 

Even when you account for the seismic shift taking place across the game, though, the Twins' relative standing has improved to a ridiculous degree. Compare their present rankings in K/9, K% and swinging strike rate to the past three seasons:

 

Download attachment: Kgraph.JPG

What's driving this spike in strikeouts? Well, in part, it is by the design of Minnesota's new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made power arms a clear emphasis when reshaping the bullpen this offseason; Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke are all unsurprisingly averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Each have been among Paul Molitor's most oft-used options, as has Ryan Pressly who is blowing people away. That helps.

 

But the real story here is in the rotation, suddenly brimming with strikeout artists.

 

How'd we get here? Through a combination of several factors.

 

In some ways, this is just a reflection of the state of the game. Lance Lynn is the most conspicuous example. Despite his overall struggles, the veteran has been generating plenty of whiffs with an 11.4% swinging strike rate that would've led all Twins starters in any of the past five years. Lynn has never posted a whiff rate of even 10% in the past.

 

Meanwhile, Jake Odorizzi has been doing his normal thing, with a 21.9% K-rate and 10.9% swinging strikes — both very much in line with his career baselines but well above the local norm. So here too, additions from the front office have played role.

 

But there's also this: Kyle Gibson has harnessed the improvements he made in the latter half of 2017 and is now a bat-missing machine. Jose Berrios continues to take steps forward in his development. And of course, Fernando Romero has now arrived with some of the best stuff we've seen from any Twins pitcher in years.

 

Add it all up, and you've got a staff that can actually strike fear into opposing lineups, retiring hitters without constantly relying on the defense to make plays (a luxury that will prove critical if Byron Buxton misses much more time this summer).

 

For those of us who've been watching Twins players consistently induce contact over the past decade-plus, it's a jarring change, but a very welcome one.

 

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[mazeville]

I was looking for a free agent pitcher for my fantasy baseball team, and searched for available pitchers with the highest strikeout rate.

 

There was Kyle Gibson, right at the top. Nearly fell off my chair.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I was looking for a free agent pitcher for my fantasy baseball team, and searched for available pitchers with the highest strikeout rate.

 

There was Kyle Gibson, right at the top. Nearly fell off my chair.

 

Did you pick him up?

[Danchat]

When someone asks "what has the new regime accomplished so far?", I'd say this is one of the biggest answers. The pitch-to-contact mantra has finally been 100% purged and while the pitching still has a ways to go, they've finally caught up with the MLB with the strikeout trends.

[Broker]

The pitchers are doing great. But don't forget the rest of the team. The Twins are winning games without some of their players. Buxton, Palonco, Sano and Santana are all gone for a while but the team is beginning to win most of their games.

[Shaitan]

How does their strikeout rate compare to league average? I mean, every hitter strikes out about once per game nowadays.

[snepp]

 

How does their strikeout rate compare to league average? I mean, every hitter strikes out about once per game nowadays.

 

K/9

7th - MLB

5th - AL

 

K%

9th - MLB

5th - AL

[yarnivek1972]

Strikeouts are fascist.

[nicksaviking]

 

Strikeouts are fascist.

 

I want Mussolini on the mound, Crash. Let the outfielders pick dandelions and the infielders build sand castles.

[yarnivek1972]

But seriously, anyone have an opinion as to whether the MLB trend of Ks is permanent or just the current fad? In the late 60s, early 70s, it was an era of sluggers and strikeouts (Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Reggie Jackson) The late 70s, early 80s saw a shift to contact and the running game (Pete Rose, Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson) and the beginning of the “closer” era (Gossage, Fingers, Sutter). The late 80s, early 90s shift was to “toolsy” players (Bonds, Canseco) and the top pitchers (Glavine, Maddux, Viola, Clemens) were guys who could get some Ks, but mostly induce weak contact and pitch deep into games. The steroid era saw a switch to power hitters again and to combat it, teams went after pitchers that kept the ball in the park or on the ground (Mike Hampton most notably). Etcetera, etcetera. So, what is the next adjustment? Two way players like Ohtani to combat roster limitations?

[mazeville]

 

Did you pick him up?

 

No. Been a fan way too long to do that. But I was tempted.

[ThejacKmp]

 

No. Been a fan way too long to do that. But I was tempted.

 

I don't know, I think I might have grabbed him. The Twins hit enough that he'll get wins (unless your league is progressive enough to get rid of wins) and those K numbers are pretty useful. He's at least a nice streaming option in two start weeks.

[mazeville]

 

I don't know, I think I might have grabbed him. The Twins hit enough that he'll get wins (unless your league is progressive enough to get rid of wins) and those K numbers are pretty useful. He's at least a nice streaming option in two start weeks.

 

We use quality starts rather than wins. Quality starts as a statistic sucks, but at least you get rid of cheap reliever wins. 

 

As I said, I was tempted. And if I was not a Twins fan I probably would have grabbed him without hesitation. That K/9 is really good.

[Craig Arko]

Not really on-topic, but it’s been confirmed Romero vs Ohtani on Sunday.

 

Happy Mother’s Day.

[nicksaviking]

 

But seriously, anyone have an opinion as to whether the MLB trend of Ks is permanent or just the current fad? 

 

Sports in the 21st century have seemed to evolve dramatically and in a short period of time. My crystal ball says some team is going to have success by somehow increasing contact (probably with a particular type of players who aren't expensive) OR a team figuring out how to consistently beat today's new launch angle craze (high fastballs?) and the rest of the copy-cats follow suit. 

 

My crystal ball says the next fad is going to be precision bunting. No one will be swinging the bat, they'll all be trying to reach on bunt singles. You guys are going to love it!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But seriously, anyone have an opinion as to whether the MLB trend of Ks is permanent or just the current fad? In the late 60s, early 70s, it was an era of sluggers and strikeouts (Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Reggie Jackson) The late 70s, early 80s saw a shift to contact and the running game (Pete Rose, Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson) and the beginning of the “closer” era (Gossage, Fingers, Sutter). The late 80s, early 90s shift was to “toolsy” players (Bonds, Canseco) and the top pitchers (Glavine, Maddux, Viola, Clemens) were guys who could get some Ks, but mostly induce weak contact and pitch deep into games. The steroid era saw a switch to power hitters again and to combat it, teams went after pitchers that kept the ball in the park or on the ground (Mike Hampton most notably). Etcetera, etcetera. So, what is the next adjustment? Two way players like Ohtani to combat roster limitations?

I think the Ks are here to stay in some capacity, though almost certainly not to the extent we see now.

Sabrmetrics have done a lot of cool things for baseball but they've also made the game less watchable. We have pretty concrete proof that launch angle, swinging out of your shoes with two strikes, and working counts lead to more wins. Those will almost certainly stay, though maybe not at the levels we see today.

 

Because at some point, guys who don't do those things will become undervalued. Some team will build a roster that looks like the mid-80s Cardinals and will beat the snot out of the rest of baseball for a few years, probably with a payroll in the bottom third of MLB.

 

And like the lemmings front offices have shown themselves to be over the past century, half of baseball will chase that idea and drive up prices on those players.

 

Cue the never-ending cycle.

[gunnarthor]

I think it's cyclical although our emphasis on "launch angle" might end up just being an excuse for much more PED use than thought in the league.

 

My guess is that as hitters see the one dimensional slugger type becoming easy to replace, hitters will strive to improve their hitting tool and not just power. We've made tons of improvements on power but we really haven't seen a 'hit' break-out yet. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

We use quality starts rather than wins. Quality starts as a statistic sucks, but at least you get rid of cheap reliever wins. 

 

As I said, I was tempted. And if I was not a Twins fan I probably would have grabbed him without hesitation. That K/9 is really good.

 

Yeah, quality starts is a bad stat but there isn't something better to track it.

 

I've always thought they could make QS better by giving you one point for a 6 inning QS, 2 for a 7 inning QS, 3 for an 8 inning etc. Sucks to lose the QS because your guy gives up two runs in the 8th but if they do, you still get credit for the 7 inning QS. Also makes a shutout worth an appropriate amount because as is, Paxton would get the same point as Odorizzi would have if he went one more inning yesterday. That seems unfair.
 

[gocgo]

 

But seriously, anyone have an opinion as to whether the MLB trend of Ks is permanent or just the current fad? In the late 60s, early 70s, it was an era of sluggers and strikeouts (Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Reggie Jackson) The late 70s, early 80s saw a shift to contact and the running game (Pete Rose, Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson) and the beginning of the “closer” era (Gossage, Fingers, Sutter). The late 80s, early 90s shift was to “toolsy” players (Bonds, Canseco) and the top pitchers (Glavine, Maddux, Viola, Clemens) were guys who could get some Ks, but mostly induce weak contact and pitch deep into games. The steroid era saw a switch to power hitters again and to combat it, teams went after pitchers that kept the ball in the park or on the ground (Mike Hampton most notably). Etcetera, etcetera. So, what is the next adjustment? Two way players like Ohtani to combat roster limitations?

Great question.  I think it will depend on the division actually.  For example, if you were the GM of a team in the AL East, what kind of a pitching staff would you assemble to win the division?  If you need to beat the Yankees and the Red Sox, you need sinker ballers with great infielders to keep the ball in the park and off the wall.  Divisions with bigger ball parks would be able to have more fly ball pitchers with a speedy outfield.  The smaller the ball park, the less important speed in the outfield is and sacrificing speed for a little more pop becomes an option...aka Willinghammer outfield.  Just my 2 pennies.

[mazeville]

UPDATE: I have now picked him up after reading this thread, which means I've guaranteed that he will go back to his no-strikeout self.

 

I was looking for a free agent pitcher for my fantasy baseball team, and searched for available pitchers with the highest strikeout rate.

 

There was Kyle Gibson, right at the top. Nearly fell off my chair.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

UPDATE: I have now picked him up after reading this thread, which means I've guaranteed that he will go back to his no-strikeout self.

 

You will be perma-banned should we find out that you caused Gibson to backslide.

[USAFChief]

 

You will be perma-banned should we find out that you caused Gibson to backslide.

Along with generations of his offspring, comrade!