Article: What's Gotten Into Kyle Gibson?

[Cody Christie]

Kyle Gibson hasn’t been perfect throughout his major league career but something has changed with the former first-round pick. In his sixth professional season, Gibson might finally be putting it all together. So what has changed? Has Gibson started pitching differently? And most importantly, what’s gotten into Kyle Gibson?Roller Coaster Career

Gibson’s best season by most statistical accolades was the 2015 campaign. In his age-27 season, Gibson posted a 3.84 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Minnesota was a surprise second-place finisher in the AL Central that season and Gibson played a large role in the club’s improvement. In fact, Twins Daily named him the team’s 2015 Pitcher of the Year.

 

Even looking at his best season, Gibson has never been built to be a frontline starter and there have been some rough moments over the last two seasons. He struggled out of the gate last season with an 8.20 ERA in his first six starts. Opponents were hitting .342/.419/.579 against him and the Twins decided to send him to Rochester. It had to be a low point for Mr. Gibson.

 

After making two starts in the minors, Gibson was recalled and posted a 4.44 ERA over his last 131 2/3 innings. In September alone, he went 4-0 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Gibson also posted a 31-to-8 strikeout to walk ratio over those final 35 2/3 innings.

 

Flipping the Switch

Gibson seems to have built off of the positive end to his 2017. According to MLB.com’s Baseball Savant, hitters are barreling up the ball against Gibson less frequently this year. Last year, batters had a 6.9% barrel percentage and they’ve posted a 5.9% barrel percentage against him since 2015. This year his barrel percentage is down to 5%. He currently ranks as the 22^nd best pitcher when it comes to barrels per plate appearance. Less frequent barreling of the ball has also helped other areas of his pitching.

 

His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are currently sitting at all-time lows. For his career, Gibson had allowed a .269 XBA and a .426 XSLG. Through his first 650 pitches this season, he has limited batters to a .232 XBA and a .375 XSLG. One of the biggest reasons for the switch has been Gibson’s ability to miss bats this season.

When this tweet was circling the internet last week, it opened plenty of eyes. Even in Gibson’s most dominating years in the minors, he wasn’t getting swings and misses like he is in 2018. His strikeouts per nine rate is over 10.0 for the first time at the big league level. He’s been keeping the ball down and making it tough for hitters to make consistent contact.

 

Looking Long-Term

The new and improved Gibson has been a bonus this year but other younger pitchers have entered the Twins’ long term plans with the potential to be frontline starters. Jose Berrios has shown tremendous ability this season. Top prospect Fernando Romero was just called up and Stephen Gonsalves has been dominating Triple-A. Minnesota doesn’t need Gibson to be the team’s best pitcher but he is showing plenty of value so far this season. Consistently sticking in the role of a number three or four starter would be a positive over what Twins Territory saw last year with Gibson.

 

There have been other pitchers who took time to develop at the big league level. Gibson might be figuring out the best ways of attacking hitters with the pitches he has to offer. As a savvier veteran, Gibson might be reaching his full potential.

 

Playoff teams need more than a top-of-the-rotation ace pitcher. Other pitchers need to step up and fill in those other spots. Gibson has been much more than a fill-in this season.

 

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[MN_ExPat]

I've always felt that Gibson has really​ good "stuff", just that his ability has never really matched his output in the field and that he was his own worst enemy.   Perhaps as you say Cody, he has reached a point in his career where he just "gets it" more.   I certainly hope so, because he's really fun to watch right now.

[Blake]

 

I've always felt that Gibson has really​ good "stuff", just that his ability has never really matched his output in the field and that he was his own worst enemy.   Perhaps as you say Cody, he has reached a point in his career where he just "gets it" more.   I certainly hope so, because he's really fun to watch right now.

I second the "fun to watch."

 

Berrios, Gibson and now Romero are "must watch Twins baseball?"

[laloesch]

This is certainly a good problem to have  and how bout Romero kid is awesome!

Edited May 8, 2018 by laloesch

[Loosey]

3 pitchers who give the team a legitimate chance to win every start is good.  And Santana has shot to come back at some point.  This team has a real starting pitching staff.

[DocBauer]

I still go back to the game last season against, I believe it was Seattle, where he was staked to a BIG lead and kept letting the Mariners nibble away at the lead. Molitor came out for a mound visit, not the pitching coach, and it felt like a take but public tongue lashing. He was sent down soon after, or right after that game. When he came back, and began his impressive second half run, one of the things he talked about was taking a different demeanor to the mound.

 

For those of us old enough to remember, (man I hate using that phrase!) Frank Viola found a similar epiphany, though at a younger age. Despite not having an exploding FB, Frank became convinced he was a "power" pitcher. He began to attack more and maintained that kind of mentality. I've even heard broadcasters other than those of the Twins speak about Gibson's stuff and if he could harness it. Later than we would have liked, but I think Gibson has developed a more confident, bulldog or attacking mindset.

 

At this point, I don't think we are talking SSS any longer. I think we are actually looking at the maturation of a MLB starter.

[twinsfanstreif]

I second the "fun to watch."

 

Berrios, Gibson and now Romero are "must watch Twins baseball?"

Are you telling me Lance Lynn is not "must watch" baseball?! It's kinda like watching David Wells run a marathon, it's a total train wreck but so hard to look away

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Are you telling me Lance Lynn is not "must watch" baseball?! It's kinda like watching David Wells run a marathon, it's a total train wreck but so hard to look away

 

Right now, when Santana or May are ready, Lynn is on the outside looking in. Hopefully we can correct him so to speak...enough that someone might take him off our hands for a C prospect. But given how Romero, Gibson, Berrios, and Odorizzi are pitching, Lynn should be nervous... especially if he wants that payday.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I think one thing that has helped is that Gibson has relied more on his breaking pitches (slider and curve) to put away hitters rather than rely on his sinker that he’d nibble over the strike zone. Gibson seems to be coming into his own, I hope he continues.

[USAFChief]

More use of his 4 seam FB, less 2 seam has been the key, IMO. He gets ahead, he's able to generate swings and misses, and he doesn't get so many bad 2 seam FBs nailed when he's behind in the count.

 

All of that sets up his slider so much better.

[wsnydes]

 

I've always felt that Gibson has really​ good "stuff", just that his ability has never really matched his output in the field and that he was his own worst enemy.   Perhaps as you say Cody, he has reached a point in his career where he just "gets it" more.   I certainly hope so, because he's really fun to watch right now.

Agreed on his stuff.  I always thought that his issue was between the ears.  He got flustered rather easily and then imploded.  The stuff has always been good though.

[gunnarthor]

Nice to see.

[Doctor Wu]

Interesting article. Thanks for posting that. But I'm still trying to get my head around "barreling of the ball" and "barrel percentage." For an old school guy like me, all of these newly introduced stats are hard to understand and put in perspective. Not saying it's a bad thing at all, just a whole new concept for me!

[clutterheart]

Hasn't this been his MO his entire career? Flashes of brilliance, a few good stretches and then some major rough patches? Hope it can continue but experience tells me those of us who expect good things from Gibson get disappointed.  

 

[blindeke]

Is he a free agent next year?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is he a free agent next year?

No, 2020.

 

If Romero is legit and the Twins get back a healthy May, this offseason should be very interesting.

 

They'll have four pitchers with one remaining year of control: Gibson, Odorizzi, Santana, and May.

 

None of them will bring back a king's ransom but we may be looking at the Twins dishing off some starting pitching this offseason, as weird as that is to say.

[mikelink45]

 

Right now, when Santana or May are ready, Lynn is on the outside looking in. Hopefully we can correct him so to speak...enough that someone might take him off our hands for a C prospect. But given how Romero, Gibson, Berrios, and Odorizzi are pitching, Lynn should be nervous... especially if he wants that payday.

Lynn is that one year great deal like Kendrys Morales was a one year great deal.  Nothing better than FA to fix your team.  Keep bringing up the young guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Lynn is that one year great deal like Kendrys Morales was a one year great deal.  Nothing better than FA to fix your team.  Keep bringing up the young guys.

It's way too early to throw away Lynn. He had one terrible month. We'll see how he looks in May.

[mikelink45]

Baseball is full of players who learned how to master their "stuff" later in their career - look at Sandy Koufax and his initial struggles, Randy Johnson took time to become a good then great pitcher.  The issue for the Twins is his age, how much do they invest in Gibson beyond this year.  Downward trends can happen as quick as upsurges. 

 

I love having the homegrown Berrios, Romero, Gibson going well, but I will not be satisfied until Gonsalves joins them. 

[IowaTwin346]

And most importantly, what’s gotten into Kyle Gibson?

 

I picture Mike McGrevey walking away saying 

"A multi year deal worth big bucks, that's what"

[bobs]

Kyle Gibson has always had the stuff.  His 2-seamer/sinker are ridiculous with their movement. I think he's just finally gotten out of his own way....stopped overthinking everything/trying to be too fine and just trusts his stuff. 

[bobs]

 

Lynn is that one year great deal like Kendrys Morales was a one year great deal.  Nothing better than FA to fix your team.  Keep bringing up the young guys.

Sorry, but Kendrys Morales was not good the short time he was here.  I think these  FA/FO are learning that ST actually is important....see, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, Morrison, etc.

[bobs]

 

Interesting article. Thanks for posting that. But I'm still trying to get my head around "barreling of the ball" and "barrel percentage." For an old school guy like me, all of these newly introduced stats are hard to understand and put in perspective. Not saying it's a bad thing at all, just a whole new concept for me!

Old school guy myself.  Why can't we just say "other teams just aren't hitting ball very hard off of him" like we used to?!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sorry, but Kendrys Morales was not good the short time he was here.  I think these  FA/FO are learning that ST actually is important....see, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, Morrison, etc.

I agree but Arrieta is actually doing pretty well for himself.

 

Lynn, Cobb, and Morrison? Maybe not so much.

 

(but I made a similar point the other night... guys need to pay attention to what's happening to these players and reconsider if they want to postpone into late February before signing a contract that may very well hinder future seasons and long-term contracts)

[clutchhittin18]

 

No, 2020.

 

If Romero is legit and the Twins get back a healthy May, this offseason should be very interesting.

 

They'll have four pitchers with one remaining year of control: Gibson, Odorizzi, Santana, and May.

 

None of them will bring back a king's ransom but we may be looking at the Twins dishing off some starting pitching this offseason, as weird as that is to say.

Don't forget about Pineda too.  The Twins gave him a 2 year deal when they signed him, with the expectation of pitching in 2019.  I doubt he would be traded because he won't pitch much this year if at all, but he does have 1 year left as well.

[USAFChief]

 

Interesting article. Thanks for posting that. But I'm still trying to get my head around "barreling of the ball" and "barrel percentage." For an old school guy like me, all of these newly introduced stats are hard to understand and put in perspective. Not saying it's a bad thing at all, just a whole new concept for me!

Remember when you took a swing, hit the sweet spot, and it felt like you hadn't even hit the baseball?  No resistance at all, as opposed to when you got one off the end of the bat and it felt like the baseball was a shotput?

 

That's "barreling" it.

 

Pitchers try to avoid that...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Don't forget about Pineda too.  The Twins gave him a 2 year deal when they signed him, with the expectation of pitching in 2019.  I doubt he would be traded because he won't pitch much this year if at all, but he does have 1 year left as well.

Oh, damn. Yeah, completely forgot about him.

[gunnarthor]

 

No, 2020.

 

If Romero is legit and the Twins get back a healthy May, this offseason should be very interesting.

 

They'll have four pitchers with one remaining year of control: Gibson, Odorizzi, Santana, and May.

 

None of them will bring back a king's ransom but we may be looking at the Twins dishing off some starting pitching this offseason, as weird as that is to say.

I'm not as convinced as you are that Trevor May belongs in this discussion but the Twins actually have control of him through the 2020 season, so two more years after this one.

[Thrylos]

 

 

They'll have four pitchers with one remaining year of control: Gibson, Odorizzi, Santana, and May.

 

 

 

Not Santana.  I just cannot see them picking that option up.  So those 3, Pineda, Berrios and Romero will likely be the conversation for the Twins' rotation in 2019

Edited May 8, 2018 by Thrylos

[ashbury]

Not Santana.  I just cannot see them picking that option up. 

But, decline the option, and then re-sign him on amicable terms for a lower amount? I'd still see the Twins as a likely landing spot for him as a free agent.