Article: The Beginning of the End for Phil Hughes

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's probably time to move on from Hughes but if he's stashed at the back of the bullpen as a long man, I'm not too worried about whether he's on the roster or not.

 

A long man has such a small impact on wins/losses that I'm not sure it really matters... and I'm not ready (not yet, anyway) to waste a prospect in the role, giving him little work and accruing service time in the process.

 

When May comes back, it'll probably force a decision. I don't see Trevor going back into the rotation this season, there simply isn't much room for him. I assume Lynn will normalize a bit. Odorizzi, Gibson, Berrios are close to locks. Romero looked good in his first start but Santana is going to bump somebody out of the rotation and once that happens, I don't see where May fits.

[Mr. Brooks]

And you'll hire the broker that bought the stock from your OLD broker if he can explain the fundamentals that caused him to like the crashed stock your old guy hated.

 

IMO, the FO will cut the cord the minute the field people are convinced Hughes has close to a zero percent chance of reacquiring those fundamentals. I really think that's the driver. Someone apparently, until recently, thought Hughes might recover enough to pull a James Shields. Because with pitching there's such a fine line between failure and success, it seems like organizations give guys like Hughes as many chances as they can to come back. Usually the guy is cooked, but there are enough examples out there to inspire hope. The fact that he's not being called upon from the pen is a bad sign for Hughes and I think a good sign for the fans.

 

They don't always pay enough attention to the opportunity cost of parading that guy out there instead of just going with a Romero, Gonsalves or Sleger as you and others pointed out so well. It's this opportunity cost factor that would cause me to "risk" a bounce-back with another organization after I cut him.

 

I wonder if there's a kind of disconnect that happens, where the field people are acutely focused on exhausting every last chance and are insensitive to the potential opportunity cost of Hughes vs. Romero, and the FO is somewhat insensitive to how remote the chances are of recovery for a guy like Hughes because their conversation with the field people is exclusively about Hughes instead of being a "best decision" thing.

Expertly stated. Thanks.

[yarnivek1972]

It's probably time to move on from Hughes but if he's stashed at the back of the bullpen as a long man, I'm not too worried about whether he's on the roster or not.

 

A long man has such a small impact on wins/losses that I'm not sure it really matters... and I'm not ready (not yet, anyway) to waste a prospect in the role, giving him little work and accruing service time in the process.

 

When May comes back, it'll probably force a decision. I don't see Trevor going back into the rotation this season, there simply isn't much room for him. I assume Lynn will normalize a bit. Odorizzi, Gibson, Berrios are close to locks. Romero looked good in his first start but Santana is going to bump somebody out of the rotation and once that happens, I don't see where May fits.

Hughes isn’t being stashed, he’s not being used. He certainly isn’t being used as a “long man”. That appears to be Magill’s role. Hughes has pitched one inning since his start 10 days ago. An inning that Magill could just as easily have pitched, because he was already going to be shut down a few days because of the pitches already thrown in his outing.

 

IMO, that IS a problem. Because it is an extra pitcher on the roster that clearly is not needed, handcuffing bench strategy. Of course, all the position injuries make bench moves somewhat moot as no one on the “usual” bench is an upgrade to the starter. But the point still remains: you don’t need (and indeed can’t afford to have) two mop up relievers.

[Riverbrian]

 

And you'll hire the broker that bought the stock from your OLD broker if he can explain the fundamentals that caused him to like the crashed stock your old guy hated.

 

IMO, the FO will cut the cord the minute the field people are convinced Hughes has close to a zero percent chance of reacquiring those fundamentals. I really think that's the driver. Someone apparently, until recently, thought Hughes might recover enough to pull a James Shields. Because with pitching there's such a fine line between failure and success, it seems like organizations give guys like Hughes as many chances as they can to come back. Usually the guy is cooked, but there are enough examples out there to inspire hope. The fact that he's not being called upon from the pen is a bad sign for Hughes and I think a good sign for the fans.

 

They don't always pay enough attention to the opportunity cost of parading that guy out there instead of just going with a Romero, Gonsalves or Sleger as you and others pointed out so well. It's this opportunity cost factor that would cause me to "risk" a bounce-back with another organization after I cut him.

 

I wonder if there's a kind of disconnect that happens, where the field people are acutely focused on exhausting every last chance and are insensitive to the potential   opportunity cost of Hughes vs. Romero, and the FO is somewhat insensitive to how remote the chances are of recovery for a guy like Hughes because their conversation with the field people is exclusively about Hughes instead of being a "best decision" thing.

 

Running an organization is running an organization. I have no idea on how the Twins operate specifically but I am able to imagine that the office politics would be similar to the office politics anywhere else. 

 

Players/Employees need advocates. The advocates would be the field people who report to the front office. If Phil Hughes was a jerk, not listening or trying... he wouldn't have advocates and the decision to cut him would be much easier because the information passed upwards wouldn't be good. I assume with no information at all... that everyone is working together to get Phil better and progress is being made... even if it seems like baby steps. As long as someone feels like it can be fixed and Phil is working toward it being fixed...  it would be premature to toss the $26M in the garbage. 

 

Who knows... but I don't think that the field people would necessarily have to consider opportunity cost. That would be the job of the GM based upon their feedback. The field people jobs would be to assess and maximize return. 

 

These are all assumptions made by me... but I don't feel the assumptions are outlandish. 

 

When posters were claiming last year around this time that there seemed to be very little difference between Falvey/Lavine and Ryan. I would always point out that the staff was pretty much unchanged and as long as the staff was still the same... the data would as well. The staff are the guys who provide a lot of the information that they use so Falvey/Lavine was getting the same info that Ryan was getting and therefore similar results. 

 

I believe roster space pressure or no advocates will be what will force a decision on Hughes. Until then... back to work everybody... Let's get him fixed.