Article: The Beginning of the End for Phil Hughes

[Cody Christie]

Phil Hughes had to know his leash was short in the Twins rotation. Minnesota’s Triple-A rotation is full of plenty of major league-ready arms. During his last spring training start, Hughes left the game with an oblique injury that seemed very convenient for the Twins front office. Since his return from that injury, Hughes has allowed six earned runs on 10 hits in seven innings of work.

 

With Fernando Romero making his big league debut on Wednesday, Hughes is headed to the bullpen. Is this the beginning of the end for Phil Hughes?Record Breaker

Minnesota's original signing of Phil Hughes seemed like a very “Twins-like” move. Over his last three seasons in New York, he started 75 games and posted a 4.82 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. His 68 home runs could be attributed to pitching with the short porch in the Bronx. The Twins were hoping a new ballpark and a new environment could re-create the younger version of Hughes.

 

During the 2014 season, Phil Hughes was a breath of fresh air for the Twins starting rotation. His 3.52 ERA and 209.2 innings pitched looked Cy Young worthy when compared to the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia. He even set the MLB record for strikeout-to-walk ratio in a season. Minnesota was so starved for starting pitching, the club restructured his contract following 2014 to cover the 2015-2019 seasons.

 

If the Twins were going to get the 2014 version of Hughes, his new contract seemed like a good investment. In hindsight, it has been an injury-ridden deal full of frustration for fans and even more frustration for the player.

 

Frustration

Hughes pitched 27 games in 2015 with a 4.40 ERA while allowing the most home runs in the American League. His last two seasons have been cut short by injuries. He was limited to just 26 games in 2016-17. The Twins owe Hughes $26.4 million for 2018 and 2019 and he is being demoted to a bullpen role.

 

Last summer, Hughes was asked by the Pioneer Press if his second season-ending surgery in as many summers was a threat to his career. “I try not to think that way,” Hughes said. “It’s been a rough go the last few years. I try not to let my mind wander that way. I try to take it with what I can do now and focus on that. It has been frustrating, even disheartening a little bit, but I try not to think that way.”

 

One has to wonder if Hughes has started to think that way over the last handful of days. When asked about his transition to the bullpen, Hughes is trying to stay positive. “I can only embrace it,” he said. “If I go down there with a positive attitude and help the team win in whatever role I’m given, that’s all I can do. I think it’s a positive thing.”

 

Fastball Falloff

Hughes has been a successful bullpen option but that was early in his career with New York. In fact, he was a critical part of the 2009 Yankee team on their way to the World Series title. Since that campaign, he has never made more than five relief appearances. Those five appearances came last season as he fought through his injury.

 

During his career, Hughes has never been noted for his velocity. The decline in his fastball velocity has been a concern in recent years, especially with all of his mounting injuries. He was averaging over 93 miles per hour through the majority of the 2014 campaign. Through his first two appearances in 2018, his fastball velocity has averaged 90.5, which is over two miles per hour slower than his career mark.

 

It remains to be seen if Hughes will be able to regain some magic in a bullpen role. There are plenty of younger arms in the Twins system waiting to get a shot at the big league level. Since he was signed under the previous regime, the current front office shouldn’t feel an allegiance to the rest of the money owed to Hughes.

 

If the bullpen doesn’t work out, the end might be looming for Mr. Hughes.

 

Around Twins Daily

Royce Lewis is Finding His Stroke

Can Fernando Romero Spark the Twins?

Something Has Clicked with Eduardo Escobar

 

Click here to view the article

[gil4]

I think we may be closer to the end of the end.  

[Brandon]

If he is willing to go to minors or back on tje DL if this bullpen doesnt go right, The Twins should keep him around through next spring training at the latest. But they could also cut bait for the extra roster spot as well. Having pitchers ready in the minors doesnt help his cause any.

[DocBauer]

Too bad really. He seems like the kind of good guy you really want to root for. He obviously loves the game. His signing was a good one and probably should have spring boarded him to the best 3-5 year stretch of his career. But stuff happens. And unfortunately, it's time to move on for all involved.

[jokin]

 

Too bad really. He seems like the kind of good guy you really want to root for. He obviously loves the game. His signing was a good one and probably should have spring boarded him to the best 3-5 year stretch of his career. But stuff happens. And unfortunately, it's time to move on for all involved.

 

Signing: Good

Extending: Not Good

[RaoulDuke]

His initial signing was a great deal, he had some struggles with the Yanks that made him a low risk high possible upside deal.  He preformed well outside of Yankee stadium and delivered a lot of excess value that first season. 

 

There was zero reason to extend him the way they did.  He had 1 good season out of 3 or 4 and they threw money at him instead of making sure that it was real (it wasn't).  Extending young guys/ buying out some free agent years is a solid plan, extending mediocre vets when you already have them on a good contract is dumb.  Even if Hughes had pitched well all 3 years no one was going to be throwing money at him outside what the Twins could afford.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If he is willing to go to minors or back on tje DL if this bullpen doesnt go right, The Twins should keep him around through next spring training at the latest. But they could also cut bait for the extra roster spot as well. Having pitchers ready in the minors doesnt help his cause any.

I don’t really see the point. The Twins already leapfrogged several guys to call up Romero. Next on the list is surely Gonsalves.

 

And then we have the return of Santana and May. There’s simply no room for Hughes in the organization.

[Vanimal46]

I think we may be closer to the end of the end.

At the very least he's at the middle of the end... But yeah, probably the end of the end for him.

[Platoon]

>>>>>>>>>>>Since he was signed under the previous regime, the current front office shouldn’t feel an allegiance to the rest of the money owed to Hughes.<<<<<<<<<< I doubt it's the FO that feels any allegiance to the money left on Hughes contract. But I would imagine Jim Pohlad might!

[rdehring]

Not certain how much of the contract is covered by insurance, but would think some.  Also don't know if the Twins could collect as he is healthy enough to pitch, just not at the level he was pitching when the policy was purchased.  Expect there is some negotiating to be done between the Twins/doctors and their insurance carrier.

 

As for his future, unless he can be something different coming out of the pen, I see him retiring sometime between now and the end of the year.  

[Tommygun921]

Giving him an extension on his contract when he still had two years remaining was dumb. I like Phil and will root for him to find success but I don't think it'll happen.

[mikelink45]

This is the baseball is done now.  It why free agency is so poor an option.  Team sign players for what they have done without regard to age and potential.  Extending young players make sense, with older players it very seldom works out well. But it should make people think again about Mauer.  The Twins gave him a contract most think was too high, but he has stayed on the field and performed. 

[Thrylos]

.300/.337/.500: what Matt Kemp is hitting for the Dodgers.  Wonder whether there might be an interest for a swap there.  Hughes contract is slightly better and for the same length.

 

Frankly, the one thing that the Twins should try to do is swap him for another bad contract hoping that the other guy would catch lightning in a bottle.

[PDX Twin]

I'm really sorry to see him fade. He is a class act. I will always remember him for the way he reacted to falling one out short of an incentive clause in his 209.2 inning season. How many of us could lose out on what (for us, at least) would be a huge payday and not show any resentment?

[mazeville]

 

His initial signing was a great deal, he had some struggles with the Yanks that made him a low risk high possible upside deal.  He preformed well outside of Yankee stadium and delivered a lot of excess value that first season. 

 

There was zero reason to extend him the way they did.  He had 1 good season out of 3 or 4 and they threw money at him instead of making sure that it was real (it wasn't).  Extending young guys/ buying out some free agent years is a solid plan, extending mediocre vets when you already have them on a good contract is dumb.  Even if Hughes had pitched well all 3 years no one was going to be throwing money at him outside what the Twins could afford.

 

 

Came here to say this. 

 

What a disappointment. Phil has been a good guy, just injured and unable to recover. I hope the bullpen experiment helps him build strength and regain some velocity. But after two surgeries I'm not confident. 

 

 

 

[Teflon]

Question - is the money owed Hughes recouped in some portion by the Twins from insurance if he is injured? Does this then incentivize the team to pitch him until he breaks down again? 

[jmlease1]

 

I don’t really see the point. The Twins already leapfrogged several guys to call up Romero. Next on the list is surely Gonsalves.

And then we have the return of Santana and May. There’s simply no room for Hughes in the organization.

 

This. If Phil can't find a way to add value in the bullpen, he's cooked. The control is gone the velocity is down, he's got a limited effective pitch mix...this is do or die.

 

I loved the initial signing. I hated the extension (made no sense to me then, looks like a fireable offense now). It's a shame that injuries have put Phil Hughes in this position, but that's baseball. And we simply can't carry him if he can't pitch.

[Parker Hageman]

I think this applies...

 

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/992063234306801665

[Otto von Ballpark]

.300/.337/.500: what Matt Kemp is hitting for the Dodgers. Wonder whether there might be an interest for a swap there. Hughes contract is slightly better and for the same length.

 

Frankly, the one thing that the Twins should try to do is swap him for another bad contract hoping that the other guy would catch lightning in a bottle.

Dodgers kind of need Kemp right now. With Seager out, Taylor moves back to the infield, and their outfield is pretty thin.

 

Don't think there is any chance of moving Hughes right now. The only possibility is exchanging him for a greater dead weight deal to relieve another team of some luxury tax burden, but I don't think any team is going to be looking at luxury tax until next winter. And of course, such a deal may not even make sense from the Twins perspective, if they take on more cash for a really bad player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Question - is the money owed Hughes recouped in some portion by the Twins from insurance if he is injured? Does this then incentivize the team to pitch him until he breaks down again?

Doubtful. Hughes's health has been a problem long enough now that even if he was once insured, that policy term has likely expired (most contract insurance is just for 2-3 years) and he's been practically uninsurable for awhile now (the premiums would be basically equal to his salary).

 

And to my knowledge, there has never been a media report about contract insurance for Hughes either, while I think it had been mentioned for past injured Twins players like Joe Nathan and Ricky Nolasco.

Edited May 3, 2018 by spycake

[bobs]

Phil Hughes has always seemed like a stand up guy.  I think he has worked extremely hard to try and come back from injury so he can earn that payday.  It really is too bad b/c he was terrific in 2014 and just has not been healthy since then.  Ideally for the Twins he would retire.  But at some point, I think they just need to cut their losses and let him go...paycheck and all.

[Rosterman]

 

Phil Hughes has always seemed like a stand up guy.  I think he has worked extremely hard to try and come back from injury so he can earn that payday.  It really is too bad b/c he was terrific in 2014 and just has not been healthy since then.  Ideally for the Twins he would retire.  But at some point, I think they just need to cut their losses and let him go...paycheck and all.

I agree that he is working hard to fulfill his contract. But the stuff is just not there. If the Twins keep playing the way they are playing, maybe they can afford to keep him in the backend of the bullpen, use him for that occasional double-header start, and see if there really is potential use in key situations. But when you can't afford to carry a guy that you can't trust in a pressure situation on the mound (and the game matters), it hurts the team.

 

Sure, it would be nice to stash him at AAA and let him pitch to his hearts content, he still gets paid. But (remember Mike Lamb) the Twins surely don't want to pay for him to be backend in someone else's organization and have him suddenly develop into a fine pitcher again. It seems to be a front office ego thing, although the current front office was not responsible for this signing.

[spanman2]

Unfortunately I think his arm/shoulder has just flat out had it.  You can tell how badly he wants it to be there but it just isn't.

[Mike Sixel]

I don’t really see the point. The Twins already leapfrogged several guys to call up Romero. Next on the list is surely Gonsalves.

 

And then we have the return of Santana and May. There’s simply no room for Hughes in the organization.

And Mejia. And some think Slegers

[twins_89]

I think if the guys in the Twins bullpen were pitching better Hughes would be waived. Since the bullpen only has a couple of guys (Pressly and Reed) pitching well, Hughes will get a chance to show if he can be better than the other poorly performing bullpen options.

[howieramone2]

 

Doubtful. Hughes's health has been a problem long enough now that even if he was once insured, that policy term has likely expired (most contract insurance is just for 2-3 years) and he's been practically uninsurable for awhile now (the premiums would be basically equal to his salary).

And to my knowledge, there has never been a media report about contract insurance for Hughes either, while I think it had been mentioned for past injured Twins players like Joe Nathan and Ricky Nolasco.

My sources tell me there is 80-90% probability there has always been insurance on that contract. Further, there has never been a preexisting injury exclusion. Who would be buy an auto policy that doesn't cover car accidents? In what world, would the premiums equal his salary? 

 

You do know the Pohlads are billionaires right?

[Otto von Ballpark]

A word of caution for fellow posters: don't take the bait! Serenity now!

[lukeduke1980]

Can he learn a knuckleball?

[Riverbrian]

If the Twins front office thinks he/they can fix it. They won't release him and run the risk of paying the 26 million to pitch decently for another team. 

 

You don't want to be in the owners office after Hughes (while pitching for the Royals) pitches well against the Twins and you are still the one paying him all that money. 

 

The Twins front office is going to need to be absolutely sure before they cut bait. Even if the owner signs off on cutting Hughes. The owner will still be relying on the input, expertise of the POBO and GM before he signs off.

 

So if it happens... the POBO and GM will doing a lot of hemming and hawing to some very pointed questions. 

 

 

[Danchat]

 

If the Twins front office thinks he/they can fix it. They won't release him and run the risk of paying the 26 million to pitch decently for another team.

I don't think Hughes pitching well for another team is a realistic concern. That's no reason to keep him on the team while providing negative value.