Article: Sano to DL, Petit Promoted, Enns Designated, Kinley Returned

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another way to look at it: if Wade had a high ISO to go along with the rest of his performance, he would be a top 100 prospect for sure, maybe even upper half. I don't think that should be the threshold required for promotion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That’s fair. I’m not saying they’re worthless but when I’ve tracked them, I haven’t felt comfortable relying on them at all.

Here are some 2018 Twins projections from Steamer:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&lg=all&players=0

 

It doesn't include guys with zero MLB time, so you have to click through their individual pages to see them.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&lg=all&players=0

 

Jake Cave is at 78-80 wRC+, Gordon at 68-70, Rooker at 71-78, Wiel at 68, etc.

 

Anything stand out as out of line?

[Oldgoat_MN]

A fair number of questions/remarks about Jake Cave. Here are some stats.

2017 - beat up AA, promoted to AAA where he posted a slash line of .324/.367/.554 (.921) in 297 PA.

.

THAT is why he is on the 40-man. So far he's not following up in Rochester, but his being put on the 40-man roster was not just a wild a** shot in the dark.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Here are some 2018 Twins projections from Steamer:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&lg=all&players=0

It doesn't include guys with zero MLB time, so you have to click through their individual pages to see them.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&lg=all&players=0

Jake Cave is at 78-80 wRC+, Gordon at 68-70, Rooker at 71-78, Wiel at 68, etc.

Anything stand out as out of line?

It's not that anything stands out as out of line with MiLB players, it's that the actual MLB results of rookies are all over the place and you may as well try to throw a dart at a board blindfolded as to accurately predict a rookie season.

 

I'm not arguing that Steamer is wrong and I'm right, I'm saying that more often than not, everybody is wrong.

 

See Sano, Berrios, and Buxton for examples. I'm almost certain Steamer didn't predict Sano's 149 wRC+ or Buxton/Berrios' epic meltdowns as rookies.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm certainly not saying get rid of Cave....

[yarnivek1972]

I’ve never really looked at Zips or Steamer projections but to have any validity at all one would assume that the projections are based on the past. That is, player x had these kind of minor league numbers and did this at the mlb level. Player y has very similar milb numbers so it is probable that his mlb numbers will be pretty close to player x.

 

But they are still simply projections. A guy like, Lenny Webster can foul things up in a hurry. He had an OPS in 1200 some PA above A ball of about .720. But in the MLB, had a career OPS of .699. Some guys are major leaguers, some guys aren’t.

[Mike Sixel]

No one is saying they are perfect. This all started because someone posted no reasonable projection system would say he can hit.....I merely pointed out that one system did. Nothing more or less.

 

They promoted an OF from Ft Meyers to AAA, and not Wade..... Just like they promoted a different IF than Gordon. It can't be that they don't want top prospects in Rochester. Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia are there, or were. So I got no idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

See Sano, Berrios, and Buxton for examples. I'm almost certain Steamer didn't predict Sano's 149 wRC+ or Buxton/Berrios' epic meltdowns as rookies.

Sure, of course. Projections can't and shouldn't predict performances like that. It's not what they do. But they can suggest a performance lean that isn't readily apparent, and that information can have some value.

 

Keep in mind, the context of this discussion is a poster claiming that "no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat" in regards to Wade. When in fact it seems that every public projection system seems to give that outcome a reasonable shot (above comparable prospects). This wasn't a generic debate questioning the validity of all projections, this was a specific claim invoking projections (incorrectly, it appears).

 

I am sure the claim will shift now to an irrefutable appeal to authority argument, that the Twins know best in this specific case...

[Otto von Ballpark]

A fair number of questions/remarks about Jake Cave. Here are some stats.

2017 - beat up AA, promoted to AAA where he posted a slash line of .324/.367/.554 (.921) in 297 PA.

.

THAT is why he is on the 40-man. So far he's not following up in Rochester, but his being put on the 40-man roster was not just a wild a** shot in the dark.

I am not questioning why we claimed Cave in the first place, I liked the move. I am questioning his value if he can't crack an outfield featuring Grossman/LaMarre every day.

 

And that's not to say that Cave should be cut today, but rather he shouldn't be invoked as a depth-chart reason to hold back Wade. The Twins outfield plans are apparently pretty tenuous past the top 3 of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, and Wade deserves to be in the conversation for that 4th spot somehow -- if not by MLB promotion, then at least AAA.

[old nurse]

 

It's not that anything stands out as out of line with MiLB players, it's that the actual MLB results of rookies are all over the place and you may as well try to throw a dart at a board blindfolded as to accurately predict a rookie season.

 

I'm not arguing that Steamer is wrong and I'm right, I'm saying that more often than not, everybody is wrong.

 

See Sano, Berrios, and Buxton for examples. I'm almost certain Steamer didn't predict Sano's 149 wRC+ or Buxton/Berrios' epic meltdowns as rookies.

couldn't quickly find steamer 2017 but you can see how individually off Zips is

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

When I looked one time they get the team about right as a whole. Individuals, not so much

 

[Oxtung]

 

I am not questioning why we claimed Cave in the first place, I liked the move. I am questioning his value if he can't crack an outfield featuring Grossman/LaMarre every day.

And that's not to say that Cave should be cut today, but rather he shouldn't be invoked as a depth-chart reason to hold back Wade. The Twins outfield plans are apparently pretty tenuous past the top 3 of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, and Wade deserves to be in the conversation for that 4th spot somehow -- if not by MLB promotion, then at least AAA.

I question the Cave trade. Given the Twins young outfield, their depth with Grossman, Granite and Wade with Rooker right behind, I don't see the value in adding another ok but not great OF prospect. Now the pitcher they gave up is very far away but he seemed to have some real upside potential.

 

That said, now that the trade is done I agree with your other points. The only conclusion I've come to is the Twins think the high BA, OBP with low ISO profile isn't particularly valuable as evidenced by trading for Cave to essentialy replace Wade, starting Wade again at AA, showing no interest in re-signing Mauer and replacing Grossman in the starting DH spot.

[Danchat]

Dietrich Enns has cleared waivers and will return to pitch in AAA.

 

I think it would be wise to try and see if he could make it as a reliever, but as of now he's still slated to be a starter.

[yarnivek1972]

Dietrich Enns has cleared waivers and will return to pitch in AAA.

 

I think it would be wise to try and see if he could make it as a reliever, but as of now he's still slated to be a starter.

Meh, if he can get outs as a starter, he can likely do so as a reliever. Teams usually don’t put a guy in the pen until he proves he can’t get outs as a starter. Because once you make that switch, a guy rarely goes back the other way. Enns hasn’t reached that point yet I don’t think.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh, if he can get outs as a starter, he can likely do so as a reliever. Teams usually don’t put a guy in the pen until he proves he can’t get outs as a starter. Because once you make that switch, a guy rarely goes back the other way. Enns hasn’t reached that point yet I don’t think.

That's just not true anymore. Not and more teams have young relief pitchers, because relief pitching is more and more important. Enns will never be a MLB starter on a good team. But he could be a RP. In many ways, it is better for his money making if they switch him, frankly.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Meh, if he can get outs as a starter, he can likely do so as a reliever. Teams usually don’t put a guy in the pen until he proves he can’t get outs as a starter. Because once you make that switch, a guy rarely goes back the other way. Enns hasn’t reached that point yet I don’t think.

 

But it's also about how you are likely to help the team. The Twins have a ton of minor league depth that would appear to be above him on the list: Mejia, Santana, Gonsalves, Jorge, May etc. He seems unlikely to crack the Twins as anything other than an emergency starter.

 

On the other hand, a third left handed reliever has real value. The Twins don't have Duke past this year either. Knowing that Enns can fill the #2 or #3 lefty reliever void likely has significantly more value than having an 11th starter.