Article: Sano to DL, Petit Promoted, Enns Designated, Kinley Returned

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given his injury history, that confidence is likely misplaced. It’s also pretty likely that he will land on the DL again this year. And also pretty likely that at least one other infielder will as well. Even with Polanco back in July, the best plan B the FO has is Gregorio Petit. That is poor roster management for a team that was expected to contend this year.

 

Injuries are a part of the game. Your team needs to anticipate them and be prepared. This FO got caught with it’s collective pants down IMO. Sano getting injured was extremely forseeable. Inexcusably poor planning IMO. I’m done giving this FO the “benefit of the doubt”. When obvious mistakes are made, they need to be held accountable, same as the Ryan regime.

I agree, to an extent. The obvious long term plan here is Gordon. If the front office is confident Sano will be back, one week of Petit is no big deal.

 

If a longer term solution is needed, Gordon should be ready to take that role.

[nicksaviking]

After two second half collapses, I'd guess they probably want to see him hold up for a full season, then start 2019 in AAA if he does.

Why not then put him to use in the first half then demote him should he struggle in the second?

[USAFChief]

 

Resembles a Split Squad in Spring Training........

Nope. 

 

Couple years ago they put in a rule, you have to have at least 4 MLB players in your starting lineup.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Nope. 

 

Couple years ago they put in a rule, you have to have at least 4 MLB players in your starting lineup.

 

ouch.

[jorgenswest]

Wade should be the starter right now.

 

.

 

Reminds of a guy the Twins have who started as a CF in the minors but moved to a corner while producing low ISOs and lots of walks. In his prime with luck we might expect a Robbie Grossman.

 

Wade’s defense is better than Grossman at 28 but no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat. Walks with low ISO doesn’t translate well to the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

 

.

Reminds of a guy the Twins have who started as a CF in the minors but moved to a corner while producing low ISOs and lots of walks. In his prime with luck we might expect a Robbie Grossman.

Wade’s defense is better than Grossman at 28 but no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat. Walks with low ISO doesn’t translate well to the majors.

 

fangraphs projects him to be a better hitter than Rosario.....so, no. that isn't correct.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why not then put him to use in the first half then demote him should he struggle in the second?

They aren't going to add him to the 40 man roster before they have to, if they don't think he's ready.

I have no idea if he's ready or not, but I can see why the Twins might not think he is yet.

[jokin]

 

Maybe they should have more than zero position players in AAA? So, you know, if there is an issue?

 

Seems like that has been strictly a weather-related decision to keep the true prospects playing regularly in better conditions, no?

 

I don't think they could have forseen all the "issues" that have befallen this team in the last two weeks.

 

With the calendar turned to May and the Twins' playoff prospects turning to crap, I'm looking for a lot of prospect promotions to AAA and inevitably to the big club in the next 60 days.

[jokin]

 

Nope. 

 

Couple years ago they put in a rule, you have to have at least 4 MLB players in your starting lineup.

 

Ouch, indeed. That one is going to leave a mark. Feel free to forward your feelings to Falvine and crew. 

 

Probably still too soon to push the panic button, but there's no denying that this is some of the worst Twins baseball in this decade- beyond Escobar and Kepler, this team looks to barely be clinging on to life support.

 

Not sure of the bonafides, of the pitching and hitting coaches, either.

 

Time for a shake-up of the status quo.

 

How about along with bringing up 3 of the top 10 prospects, hiring Tori Hunter as the bench coach?

[mikelink45]

 

Currently sporting a .250/.275/.364 line in Chat-town.

 

Might be a while.

He is off to a poor start, but compared to Morrison and Grossman he looks like an all-star.  But I did not mean to imply that he would be up soon - I am just anxious. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Reminds of a guy the Twins have who started as a CF in the minors but moved to a corner while producing low ISOs and lots of walks. In his prime with luck we might expect a Robbie Grossman.

Wade’s defense is better than Grossman at 28 but no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat. Walks with low ISO doesn’t translate well to the majors.

I'm not sure why you'd say that. At the same age as Wade is now, Grossman already had almost 300 PA in MLB with a 95 OPS+, and would go on to log another 400 more at 91 OPS+ before his next birthday. That's pretty close to the 101 OPS+ that Grossman put up last year (and that Fangraphs is projecting for the rest of his 2018 season). Why is it unreasonable to think Wade could be in the same range at the same age? Wade has had a better wRC+ than Grossman at every level of the minors so far, and Wade has also struck out notably less than Grossman in the minors too, which makes his performance less dependent on BABIP.

 

Grossman was a high school draftee, but that advantage was mostly neutralized when he had to repeat A-ball for a full season. At the time of their AA debuts, Grossman and Wade were less than a year apart in age.

 

Wade will require a 40-man roster spot this upcoming offseason too, so it's not like we'd be rushing him from that perspective either. I guess calling him up before August makes it more likely that he could use an option this year, but even worst-case scenario, he wouldn't run out of options until his age 27 season, a year later than Grossman did (Grossman burned his first option at age 23).

Edited May 2, 2018 by spycake

[GCTF]

 

No arguments there. Like I said, I don’t like Petit on the team.

People are pissed about this? Guy has a ****ing calendar named after him. How awesome is that?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

People are pissed about this? Guy has a ****ing calendar named after him. How awesome is that?

Not to mention his own chant!

 

Maybe they promoted him to be a calming influence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK5AohCMX0U

[jorgenswest]

fangraphs projects him to be a better hitter than Rosario.....so, no. that isn't correct.

I see a steamer 1 plate appearance projection. Is that the one you are referring to?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see a steamer 1 plate appearance projection. Is that the one you are referring to?

 

in fringe five, they stated he was projected to be better......

[Squirrel]

I agree, to an extent. The obvious long term plan here is Gordon. If the front office is confident Sano will be back, one week of Petit is no big deal.

 

If a longer term solution is needed, Gordon should be ready to take that role.

I don’t have objections he wasn’t called up to the Twins. I do wonder why he wasn’t moved up to AAA to take Petit’s place instead of Sean Miller, even if for only a week.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I see a steamer 1 plate appearance projection. Is that the one you are referring to?

Steamer doesn't project playing time / counting stats for him. You can still look at the rate stats of the projection, it comes to a 97 wRC+.

 

You can also click the "Projections" link just above the stat table which will toggle the preseason projections. Steamer is basically the same, and ZiPS was at 89 wRC+ (and included some counting stats for illustration).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa856280&position=OF

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don’t have objections he wasn’t called up to the Twins. I do wonder why he wasn’t moved up to AAA to take Petit’s place instead of Sean Miller, even if for only a week.

Yeah, I don't get that. Starting some of those guys in Chattanooga to avoid weather issues in April was a savvy move.

 

Keeping those guys in Chattanooga as the calendar flips to May is not.

[jorgenswest]

in fringe five, they stated he was projected to be better......

Thanks for the link. It is the 1 PA steamer projection that they are comparing. I hope that steamer and other minor league projections based only on data can not be found in the Twins front office.

 

It would be better to find comps of guys the same age with an ISO near 100 at 23 in AA but good OBP. How many of those guys make it? How long does it take them? Grossman is kind of close but better. He was 22 in AA with an ISO of 144 and lots of walks. ISO is a better indicator of future success because those walks off of minor league pitchers drop significantly against major league pitchers particularly if a player has little power.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks for the link. It is the 1 PA steamer projection that they are comparing. I hope that steamer and other minor league projections based only on data can not be found in the Twins front office.

It would be better to find comps of guys the same age with an ISO near 100 at 23 in AA but good OBP. How many of those guys make it? How long does it take them? Grossman is kind of close but better. He was 22 in AA with an ISO of 144 and lots of walks. ISO is a better indicator of future success because those walks off of minor league pitchers drop significantly against major league pitchers particularly if a player has little power.

 

I was responding to the post that "no reasonable projection" would have him ever be good.......

 

we aren't sure one way or the other....but his defense has to be MUCH better than Grossman's, and Buxton is out for some time. Let's find out if he's going to be good or not, or at least expose him to MLB pitching, or at least gather data.

[old nurse]

 

Seems like that has been strictly a weather-related decision to keep the true prospects playing regularly in better conditions, no?

 

I don't think they could have forseen all the "issues" that have befallen this team in the last two weeks.

 

With the calendar turned to May and the Twins' playoff prospects turning to crap, I'm looking for a lot of prospect promotions to AAA and inevitably to the big club in the next 60 days.

Not much in AAA to get excited about, Gonsalves is about it. Reed hasn't pitched much this year. In AA  there is Gordon maybe Wiel if they find a taker for Morrison, maybe Wade if he continues to hit. Jay has not pitched much yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It would be better to find comps of guys the same age with an ISO near 100 at 23 in AA but good OBP. How many of those guys make it? How long does it take them? Grossman is kind of close but better. He was 22 in AA with an ISO of 144 and lots of walks. ISO is a better indicator of future success because those walks off of minor league pitchers drop significantly against major league pitchers particularly if a player has little power.

Projections are based on component comps. It's not a fixed adjustment applied to every player. Heck, Grossman's rookie performance is probably a part of Wade's projection (as would be the success/failure of players similar to Grossman and Wade).

 

With your comparison, you're ignoring league factors. Grossman and Wade are very similar by the criteria you specify. Here are the relative stats for their AA debut seasons:

 

Grossman:

22.5 years old

ISO +.012 compared to his leagues

BB% +5.6% compared to his leagues

 

Wade

23.3 years old

ISO -.006 compared to his league

BB% +5.5% compared his league

 

Park factors could add another layer, but I'm not seeing any meaningful difference here. That ISO difference is, what, 8 total bases over a full season?

 

More stats to consider: Grossman's K rate at AA was virtually the same as his league average, while Wade's was 7.8% lower than his league average last year (and even better this year).

[jorgenswest]

This was a steamer projection. My understanding of steamer is that it uses a system of weighted averages and not component comps of minor leaguers.

 

I don’t see a lot of difference either but 8 total bases would be an increase from 22 to 30 doubles. Wade has 3 extra base hits in 91 PAs this year. I don’t see how that is going to work well as a starting major league player on a corner. In AA, the first thing I look at as a hitter is age. The second is ISO. Walks are way down on the list for a few reasons.

 

1) Absent of power walks don’t translate well to the major leagues.

2) In order to get to that walk, the batter often would have seen a pitch or two that they could have barreled up in that at bat but didn’t. With all of his walks, Wade has seen a lot of pitches with few extra base hits as a result.

[Mike Sixel]

Defense counts too..... And he replaces Lamarre on the roster.... At least move him to AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t see a lot of difference either but 8 total bases would be an increase from 22 to 30 doubles. Wade has 3 extra base hits in 91 PAs this year. I don’t see how that is going to work well as a starting major league player on a corner.

Well, if you want to express it as 22 doubles to 30, you also have to subtract 8 singles. Net +4 doubles, or less than 1 per month.

 

91 PAs? Aren't you usually reminding folks about sample size? Why wouldn't you be using his stats from last season, where he had roughly double that rate of XBH? Does the most recent 91 PA trump that somehow?

 

What would you have predicted for Grossman when he moved up to AAA and posted an .083 ISO, in the PCL with a league ISO of .144? Then came to MLB that same season and posted a .101 ISO? Nobody made Grossman improve upon his roughly league average ISO in AA before they would advance him.

 

I'm not guaranteeing that Wade would succeed, but when he has to be added to the 40-man this year anyway, and you are stuck starting either Grossman or LaMarre in your outfield every single day right now, would it hurt that much find out? What is the point of having Jake Cave on the roster with options instead if he's not even going to play the outfield over Grossman or LaMarre? At least move Wade up to AAA so you are better prepared for the next time an outfielder gets hurt.

Edited May 2, 2018 by spycake

[jorgenswest]

Lots of stuff above.

 

LaMarre is the only true centerfielder of the group. Grossman is the best hitter (today) of the group. Could that why be the front office has chosen these two?

 

As for sample, I didn’t use rate stats for that reason and used a count but the ISO are so similar I could have done the count across two years.

 

When using ISO I used his 2017 numbers. Yes 8 singles would turn into doubles otherwise the batting average would change. In this case it was about increasing in power to increase SLG without increasing AVG.

 

To stay focused on the big picture though...

 

A minor league corner OF profile of very good OBP and low ISO does not translate well to the majors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To stay focused on the big picture though...

 

A minor league corner OF profile of very good OBP and low ISO does not translate well to the majors.

You keep repeating this as if Wade is a banjo hitter like Granite. He's not. No matter how much importance you want to assign to ~1.5 extra total bases per month in their AA seasons, Wade's profile is much closer to Grossman's minor league profile (in fact possibly better if you consider his dramatically lower K rate to go along with his similar ISO and BB rate).

 

Wade probably won't be a star or reach his AA 135 wRC+ in MLB, but the ZiPS/Steamer projections for Wade seem entirely reasonable right now (89-97). No guarantee he would do it, of course, but it could be fairly valuable to the Twins to find out, at least with a promotion to AAA (seriously, what do we see in Jake Cave if he can't crack this roster right now?). Grossman/LaMarre does not appear to be viable, considering offense plus defense plus roster concerns (they both have to be each other's exclusive substitute right now), and I suspect this isn't the last time we're going to need a replacement for Buxton.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’m not saying the Twins should or should not promote Wade but are ZiPS/Steamer projections even remotely accurate for MiLB players? From what I’ve seen over the years, they’re rarely even close (but it’s not as if I diligently check the things).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I’m not saying the Twins should or should not promote Wade but are ZiPS/Steamer projections even remotely accurate for MiLB players? From what I’ve seen over the years, they’re rarely even close (but it’s not as if I diligently check the things).

I don't get that impression. It's not like they regularly project rookies to be stars. There is certainly a bit more volatility with rookie projections, sure. A lot of that is probably guys like Kinley who are terrible in a small sample and don't have the opportunity to normalize those numbers to merely bad.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't get that impression. It's not like they regularly project rookies to be stars. There is certainly a bit more volatility with rookie projections, sure. A lot of that is probably guys like Kinley who are terrible in a small sample and don't have the opportunity to normalize those numbers to merely bad.

That’s fair. I’m not saying they’re worthless but when I’ve tracked them, I haven’t felt comfortable relying on them at all.