Article: Were We Possibly This Wrong?

[mikelink45]

I see a number of important issues and many of the comments cover them.

• This is on Falvine combo - this is there team.  The TR team gave us a winning season the year they were hired.  Now the FA, the Rule 5, the waiver wire pick ups and the DFAs are on the current FO.  So far the grade is not good.
• Sano and Buxton are going to be on the DL every year.  No longer an excuse when they are gone because we have seen this over and over.  The solution - someone who can play CF with good defense on our bench and a good shortstop - Gordon? - who can allow Escobar to be at third or an excellent 3B player on the bench.  Defense is more important that Morrisons historic 38 HR season last year or Grossman's walks.
• Signing FA pitchers is more than a gamble, it seldom works out.  Pitchers have to be comfortable to pitch well and new team dynamics seem to make their signing questionable.  But when you have near MLB ready pitchers in your system I want them to have a chance - hurray for Romero, where is Gonsalves?
• The bullpen for all its problems was better last year.  What happened?  Over use?  New guys in and one is good, but DFA of Chagois was a big mistake.  Glad to see Curtiss up.
• Molitor is the same guy he has always been.  Where is his analytic advisor coach. 
• Where is the big pitching coaching system that was put in place.  We have as many pitching gurus as we do pitchers.  Is it helping? 
• Dozier always has weeks of ineffectiveness so if he is now in one of those periods it is not an excuse because it happens every year.
• Polanco was a non-factor for the first half last year so his absence in the first half this year is not an excuse. 
• If Rosario has an attitude where are all those great ex Twins signed to foster a positive team feeling?  Shouldn't they be showing up all over the field during this down period?
• Losing to the Yankees is a Twins expectation, but it should not have set us up to lose to Cincinnati.  There is a lot to be rectified, but defense and pitching are the two most important elements to change things. 

[Puckett34]

Didn't expect to be THIS wrong.    Nor to I expect it to continue.    Just need to start hitting better than .194 with RISP and pitch better.  

 

You know.    Easy stuff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can shrug off bad pitching for a month. It happens.

 

I can shrug off bad hitting for a month. It happens.

 

Entire pitching staffs and lineups sometimes flounder at the same time. I can accept those things and not get too worked up about it. I've watched a lot of baseball over the years and sometimes, the stars align in a positive way. Other times, they align in the worst way possible.

 

So I'll just ride out this bad stretch before demanding a massive roster overhaul.

 

But what chaps me to no end is the sloppy, SLOPPY play by the defenders. Rodney has been bad but he probably blows two fewer saves if his defense makes routine plays behind him. I can recall at least half a dozen losses that swung against the Twins after someone in the field did something incredibly stupid and/or lazy. And it's not one guy making all the mistakes. It's at least half the friggin' team. On a nightly basis, someone new steps forward and laces up their clownshoes in preparation for an epic night of failure.

 

And that's unacceptable. If this team was merely competent defensively, they're probably 11-13 or even 12-12 right now. We're a bit disappointed by the month as a whole but are able to look forward to improvement.

 

Instead, they've dug themselves a six game hole to climb out of in a division that has one of the best teams in the AL sitting on top.

[Platoon]

You'll never hear me questioning effort. I won't do that because there is no way to know.

 

Rosario had the error last night. That wasn't lack of effort, it was taking his eye off the ball, thinking he was closer to the fence than he was. Dozier didn't have his error after the due to lack of effort. He just didn't field the ball right. Lance Lynn isn't walking hitters because of lack of effort. I don't if it's mechanical or what, but it isn't like he's trying to walk guys. 

 

And yeah, I know the manager will take blame for the slow start. I get that. But he can't hit with runners in scoring position, and Molitor was never a pitcher, so he can't go out there and pitch for them. He can't field. 

 

And the team is prepared. We heard last year how they have so much more to digest in terms of stats and analysis. They aren't' suddenly using less of it now. Lineup construction is often overrated, but I don't really have an issue with that at this point. The guys at the top of the order are getting on, but they're not getting knocked in. Bullpen management is something he continues to get questioned on. I personally don't have much issue with it. I wonder about his usage of Duke against strings of righties, but outside of Reed and Pressly, its not like he's had anyone else be reliable. He's given Hildenberger a lot of chances, and hopefully last night's performance will spring him toward his 2017 success. He's used the short-term guys appropriately.  As for motivation, that's always a tough one for me. One form of motivation isn't going to work for everyone. And again, I won't question the players' motivation or effort. If they can't get motivated to play an MLB game, that's on them. 

 

And also... there is a lot of baseball left. If they go 13-7 in their next 20, they're back to .500 before the end of May. If they go 23-17 in their next 40, they're at .500 in mid-June, and they're well within reach. So, I think we can ask the question (which I did in the article), but it's definitely too early to think we already know the answer.

 

You think lollygagging after a flyball, not blocking pitches, getting caught off base on third on a fly ball with no outs, not picking up a bunt and tagging home, etc, etc etc, is being prepared? Baseball is the only game around where you have the time to imagine scenarios ahead of them happening, if you want to do the thinking. Stat prep and info have nothing to do with keeping your eye on the ball, or any of the above named deficiencies. A lack of focus does however. You can call it whatever you want, effort, focus, preparedness, interest, or motivation, but whatever you call it, it's missing right now.

[bighat]

 

 

And also... there is a lot of baseball left. If they go 13-7 in their next 20, they're back to .500 before the end of May. If they go 23-17 in their next 40, they're at .500 in mid-June, and they're well within reach. So, I think we can ask the question (which I did in the article), but it's definitely too early to think we already know the answer. 

 

"there is a lot of baseball left" could also be a negative. The problem with this statement is that the way the Twins are playing, a 23-17 run over the next 40 games seems highly improbable. Impossible even.

It's like getting straight Ds and Fs all semester, and then saying:  "Well, if I get straight A's next semester I'll have my GPA back to a 2.0". 

 

I like the positive attitude and the spin. But let's be honest: we're here to gripe and complain. We're frustrated and ticked off. The only thing that's going to make us feel better are:

 

1. Twins wins

2. More cowbell

 

Pep talks and 'what ifs' aren't my cup o' tea right now, unfortunately! I wish they were.

 

I like your positive spin. I truly hope the Twins do get on a roll.
 

[jmlease1]

I'm hoping this is the woes of small sample size and and some bad luck of so many players struggling at the same time.

 

The offense has been disappointing so far. Morrison struggled so badly to start the season that he's going to be in a hole for a while. He's looking and hitting much better but the first three weeks of the season he was almost an automatic out. Castro has been rough at the plate, Buxton started slow before getting hurt, Sano hits it a ton when he connects, but isn't connecting enough. Grossman has been awful as a hitter and his usual mess of a fielder. Rosario has taken a step back. That's a lot of hitters not hitting. Mauer, Escobar, Kepler, and Dozier are the only ones getting on base at an acceptable level (and I expect more out of Dozier, frankly)

 

The pitching...Berrios has been what we hoped, and Odorizzi and Gibson have been serviceable. But Gibson and Odorizzi and getting late enough in games is a problem because the 4th and 5th slots stink so our bullpen is overworked...again. Pressly & Reed have been great, but no one else has been consistent, unless it's been consistently bad. Again, small sample size, especially with relievers, but Rodney has been bad, Hildenberger, Rogers, and Moya all disappointed...maybe Duke has put it back together? He's started to look like he's finding his control.

 

but I agree: the players need to play their way out of this.

 

So far, only one of the offseason moves has really worked out: Addison Reed. But come on: not even the people predicting regression on morrison thought he'd be this bad. even the people who were "meh" on Lynn didn't think he'd be a dumpster fire.

 

They're not as bad as they've been playing. But they need to get it together.

 

[LeatherAntenna]

"there is a lot of baseball left" could also be a negative. The problem with this statement is that the way the Twins are playing, a 23-17 run over the next 40 games seems highly improbable. Impossible even.

 

It's like getting straight Ds and Fs all semester, and then saying:  "Well, if I get straight A's next semester I'll have my GPA back to a 2.0". 

 

I like the positive attitude and the spin. But let's be honest: we're here to gripe and complain. We're frustrated and ticked off. .....

 

I like your positive spin. I truly hope the Twins do get on a roll.

. Could do a 2006, 25-32 on June 7 and then 71-34 the rest of the year.

[LeatherAntenna]

If Buxton and Sano bust, this core isn't good enough to win anyway. It was imperative during the rebuild that Buxton and Sano became stars. Kepler and Rosario are good, not great players. Berrios could be great. Without a true star leading the way, the rebuild led by the past regime is a bust.

. It is possible that we have an emerging star in Kepler, he seems to have a better bat this year. And do we need emerging stars.

[Taildragger8791]

I'm curious what the plan is going to be if Sano can DH but can't play the field for a length of time due to hammy issues. It's going to get congested at DH/1B.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Taildragger8791

[Taildragger8791]

 

. It is possible that we have an emerging star in Kepler, he seems to have a better bat this year. And do we need emerging stars.

 

I think getting Kepler into the 3rd or 4th spot in the lineup would help the offense significantly. They need better bat control in those spots.

[gocgo]

9-15 is bad, but what compounded it was that we went 4-6 against teams with losing records.  Not just losing records but horrible records.  Some of the worst records in baseball.  That's alarming to me.  When you have a losing record against a number of teams with losing records, you're not good.  Period.  Numbers don't lie.  Records don't lie.  If we had gone 7-3 against those teams, we'd be 12-12...but we didn't and those games count in September.  The reality is that this is a talented but bad baseball team and our record shows that.  Can we turn it around?  I believe the month of May will be the key month in this season.

[Seth Stohs]

 

You think lollygagging after a flyball, not blocking pitches, getting caught off base on third on a fly ball with no outs, not picking up a bunt and tagging home, etc, etc etc, is being prepared? Baseball is the only game around where you have the time to imagine scenarios ahead of them happening, if you want to do the thinking. Stat prep and info have nothing to do with keeping your eye on the ball, or any of the above named deficiencies. A lack of focus does however. You can call it whatever you want, effort, focus, preparedness, interest, or motivation, but whatever you call it, it's missing right now.

 

I'd' say each was a varying level of mistake. 

I don't' think Rosario lollygagged on the dropped fly ball. He got there in plenty of time, he just looked to find the wall and took his eye off the ball.

 

I wont call it effort. I couldn't' tell you if it is about focus. I don't' know how to measure preparedness. You can prepare for everything as much as you want but the players have to do it. I definitely dont' question interest. I'm not going to question motivation. 

 

They're' losing right now. Its not fun for us to watch. I feel pretty strongly that it''s harder on the players, coaches, manager and front office. 

[FormerMinnasotan]

I agree, it's too early to give up on this team and they have plenty of talent. But, as I mentioned in another thread, I do think some of these problems are on Molitor and the coaching staff.

 

We have the talent but the ML coaches have to get the talent out of these guys. I'm flabbergasted that Lynn is this bad. I have no idea why. I know NL pitchers have trouble adjusting to the AL but this is ridiculous. Hopefully it's lack of ST and he gets going soon but, wow, he's been bad.

That’s why I suggested moving Lynn to AAA or at worst the bullpen until he gets his control/command back. I think Lynn’s struggles are from not having a spring training. If he could take a week or two in a lower pressure situation he might come back sharper and closer to the pitcher he was. We have some depth in the minors to cover until Lynn works his issues out.

[slash129]

 

But what chaps me to no end is the sloppy, SLOPPY play by the defenders. 

 

And that's unacceptable. If this team was merely competent defensively, they're probably 11-13 or even 12-12 right now. 

 

Watching them go 0/6 on double play chances Sunday was very frustrating.  Couple that with Dozier in slo-mo on a couple rollers to the right side, and it just got worse.  

 

I know a couple of the DP chances were on slower choppers, but the plays didn't look fluid either.

 

If half of those 8 plays get made, that would have been a completely different ballgame.

 

I've been one of the biggest Dozier-for-life supporters, but I sure wish he'd play with a bit more hop in his step.  If he's actually slowing down, then maybe, with reference to the article title, I was just possibly that wrong.

[beckmt]

I did not think we should have signed Lynn, because his national league stuff usually did not  translate well to the American league, but Cobb has been worse and his contract is much worse.  

If the Twins felt Gordon was ready, he should have been in Rochester, there is a reason the FO sent him back to Chattanooga. 

We have more than a month before we can trade the players we signed last winter, so will see what happens, but at this time the Twins to me are unwatchable.  

Twins also continue to not be able to develop or fix pitchers, maybe we need to put out a call through all organizations to find a pitching coach who can do this, and fit his approach to the talent they have, Alston seems to be failing the that respect.

I do agree with the poster who would not have signed Molitor to a new contract, there were coaches and mangers out there who were better, Twins just needed to sign one.

 

 

[biscuit]

Berrios got squeezed by the umpire in NY.  Ok.  That happens to everybody in NY. But then he started pitching scared.  The other day against Cincinnati, it looked, again, like he was pitching scared.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't recall anyone saying the front office did nothing. I do recall people questioning some of the specific moves.

 

This core lives and dies in Sano and Buxton. Buxton can't hit or stay healthy. Sano can hit, but not enough, and can't stay healthy. That does not excuse their other issues at all. But they need to fix those two players, badly.

 

In the meantime, Wade should be in a corner OF spot. I'd consider promoting Gordon.

 

The FO is not without blame. The kinley move was always a bad idea. There are zero position players in AAA, and no, that isn't normal.

 

The manager needs to move Dozier to the three hole. He needs to manage the pitchers better.

 

I have no confidence Rosario will ever figure it out. He's been a professional ballplayer for how long now?

 

On the plus side, Kepler is legit

Edited May 1, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Taildragger8791]

 

If the Twins felt Gordon was ready, he should have been in Rochester, there is a reason the FO sent him back to Chattanooga. 

 

To be fair, the Twins often call up their top hitting prospects directly from AA. I don't think Gordon being in Chattanooga affects his call-up timeline if they need/want him in Minnesota.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yu Darvish is 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. I think if he were on the Twins with those statistics, these columns would be filled with negative comments. It's time to forget about Darvish. It didn't happen and probably never would have happened. Let's deal with reality. I am glad to see Romero given a chance and I hope he's allowed to make several starts before any decisions are made. Curtiss might be the anti-Rodney we need closing games. And I like the idea that Gordon and Gonsalves might also be given an opportunity at the major league level soon.

He also went 6 innings, 0 ERs, 8 Ks against a good Milwaukee team his last time out.  Reality is that the Twins decided not to make a serious offer and instead opted to spend that money on a handful of lesser players. Those two decisions are linked whether or not people want to acknowledge it. 

 

At this point Romero and Gonsalves can't be worse than Hughes and Lynn. 

[Primetime82]

I'm excited to see who we trade at the deadline and for another top 10 pick next season!

 

Dozier, Santana and Reed could fetch us some quality prospects in trades.

 

Anyone not named Buxton,Rosario, Kepler, Romero and Berrios should be on the trade block at the deadline.

[beckmt]

 

To be fair, the Twins often call up their top hitting prospects directly from AA. I don't think Gordon being in Chattanooga affects his call-up timeline if they need/want him in Minnesota.

You will normally see better offspeed stuff in AAA.  Most of these staffs are AAAA type pitchers, but have enough control to expose holes in a swing.  Gordon needs to see some of that before I feel he is ready.

[markos]

First, as many others have already pointed out, this is still a small sample size. Last year, the Twins has 8 different 24-game stretches with a 9-15 record. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streaks.cgi?request=1&games=24&year=2017&SHOW=TOT&includes=nospan_years&team_id=MIN&orderby=losses

 

Second, it is hard to be "wrong" about predictions when the team is dealing with injuries/suspensions. The team that was on paper in March is NOT the same team that has been playing the past few weeks. I mean, what kind of prediction for the season would everyone have if you knew that:

- Buxton was going to play less than half the games.

- Sano was going to play only 80% of the games.

- Santana was going to make 0 starts.

- Polanco was going to play 0 games. 

If that was was known beforehand, I don't think there is anyone who would have been super confident that the Twins would be above .500. 

 

Finally, I do think that the front office deserves some criticism. My own bone to pick: Buxton has a pretty extensive injury history at this point. He gets dinged up; he misses time. The fact that they have yet to acquire a legitimate backup centerfielder for the 4th OF spot is unbelievable to me. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

First, as many others have already pointed out, this is still a small sample size. Last year, the Twins has 8 different 24-game stretches with a 9-15 record. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streaks.cgi?request=1&games=24&year=2017&SHOW=TOT&includes=nospan_years&team_id=MIN&orderby=losses

 

Second, it is hard to be "wrong" about predictions when the team is dealing with injuries/suspensions. The team that was on paper in March is NOT the same team that has been playing the past few weeks. I mean, what kind of prediction for the season would everyone have if you knew that:

- Buxton was going to play less than half the games.

- Sano was going to play only 80% of the games.

- Santana was going to make 0 starts.

- Polanco was going to play 0 games. 

If that was was known beforehand, I don't think there is anyone who would have been super confident that the Twins would be above .500. 

 

Finally, I do think that the front office deserves some criticism. My own bone to pick: Buxton has a pretty extensive injury history at this point. He gets dinged up; he misses time. The fact that they have yet to acquire a legitimate backup centerfielder for the 4th OF spot is unbelievable to me. 

 

Any legit backup OF....many here called for them to do so this off season.

 

Call up Wade already....heck, projection systems think he'll be better on offense than Rosario right now....

[Mauerpower]

Grossman’s offense is not good enough to make up for his lack of defense in the of. I don’t know who’s decision it is to keep him out there rather than bringing someone up from the minors or from a different team, but the fo needs to address the situation. They should’ve addressed before the season started, since they didn’t they should’ve once Buxton was out on the dL.

[Tomj14]

 

Anyone not named Buxton,Rosario, Kepler, Romero and Berrios should be on the trade block at the deadline.

Isn't that what everybody was saying during the off season?

As bad as the Twins have been, I think it is a bit earlier to go into tank/trade mode. IMO while you can always use top prospects in the low minors, that isn't really a weak spot of the Twins right now, it is prospects that are ready to contribute.

If the Twins start trading for low minor prospects they might as well look into trading Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Rosario because by the time the new guys are ready to contribute these four will be free agents.

[Rosterman]

I think the team is better. But, also, the play of baseball is better. In any contest, one team wins, one team loses. There is no sure pathway to a victory. Otherwise, you would be able to predict winners over losers easily. But you can't.

 

Were the Twins cheap? Supposedly, no. But they did BUY to be competitive as a Wild Card team, NOT to take the division today or tomorrow. Still too many factors there. The resurgence of rookies and sophs.  A new bullpen. A better middle-of-the-road rotation. But still, unless you truly think Detroit and Kansas City and Chicago are worse teams, which they very well may be, the Twins still have to say "Are we better than every other team in baseball?

 

You would think coaching and managing would've figured some things out, from arm usage to line-up construction. SO much of the game is going over stats and film and players just can't throw the ball hard and be tricky anymore, just like batters can't wait for the perfect pitch. 

 

It is work, on and off the field. The talent is there, but the talent is there on so many other teams, too.

 

The weather was bad, but the Twins weren't the only team suffering from cancelled games and bad weather.

 

Target Field is a gem, but how many of the guys on the current team really played the game at Target Field (of course, are biglosses were in Tampa Bay, land of great weather, and Yankee Stadium, which everyone dreams to play). 

 

I want to have patience. But I also know the front office is sweating the sell of the team, coming out badly in the gate.

 

Cheap tickets this month, still, folks!

 

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

First, as many others have already pointed out, this is still a small sample size. Last year, the Twins has 8 different 24-game stretches with a 9-15 record. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streaks.cgi?request=1&games=24&year=2017&SHOW=TOT&includes=nospan_years&team_id=MIN&orderby=losses

 

Second, it is hard to be "wrong" about predictions when the team is dealing with injuries/suspensions. The team that was on paper in March is NOT the same team that has been playing the past few weeks. I mean, what kind of prediction for the season would everyone have if you knew that:

- Buxton was going to play less than half the games.

- Sano was going to play only 80% of the games.

- Santana was going to make 0 starts.

- Polanco was going to play 0 games. 

If that was was known beforehand, I don't think there is anyone who would have been super confident that the Twins would be above .500. 

 

Finally, I do think that the front office deserves some criticism. My own bone to pick: Buxton has a pretty extensive injury history at this point. He gets dinged up; he misses time. The fact that they have yet to acquire a legitimate backup centerfielder for the 4th OF spot is unbelievable to me. 

 

The Twins aren't simply below .500. They're regularly getting smoked by mediocre and bad ball clubs and too many games aren't even competitive. Even with those guys out they shouldn't be this bad. Comparisons to last season may help lessen the sting, but this year it might take 90 wins to snag the last wildcard spot. If it takes 2-4 weeks to get healthy and get their head on straight that won't be achievable and we'll be hosting a mid-summer yard sale.

 

But yeah, the front office didn't do any favors by assuming Buxton & Sano would stay healthy for the first time ever. Going forward the roster should be built to better withstand loss of their playing time (especially in the field) because for them it's clearly a matter of when, not if.

[Blake]

I have to admit, I'm liking the Lynn signing more and more.

 

Not because the Twins got him, rather, it's a one year contract.

 

Which means Lynn is pitching for his next contract and, as of right now, he won't get it.

 

Contrast that with the contract the Twins have with Hughes....

[KirbyDome89]

 

First, as many others have already pointed out, this is still a small sample size. Last year, the Twins has 8 different 24-game stretches with a 9-15 record. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/streaks.cgi?request=1&games=24&year=2017&SHOW=TOT&includes=nospan_years&team_id=MIN&orderby=losses

Those aren't 8 separate stretches of 24 games each, that would be over a full season of games. They're double dipping. Just looking at the top two "streaks," the first lasted 7/6 - 8/5 and the second was from 7/8 - 8/7. That's essentially the same streak with a difference of only a game or two on either end. Six of those eight "streaks," cover basically that same time period. There's one stretch from late June to late July, but even that is including a lot of the same games as the July - August "streaks," above. There's only one other distinct stretch and that was from late May to mid June. It's really more like two periods of really bad baseball. 

 

I guess the silver lining is that the Twins haven't hit the same level of bad as that late June - early August stretch last year, at least in terms of games lost. I think we could make an argument they've hit that low in regards to performance. The season certainly isn't lost, but Twins aren't the kind of team I'd bet on to dig themselves out of big holes. This is a team that should be around .500 a few months and pushing over .500 for the rest to build to 85-86 wins. Finishing a month over .500 is a big deal for this team, and now barring a crazy winning streak, they need to do that for multiple months just to break even. Like I said, this isn't a time to panic, but I do think the work that's required for the Twins to dig themselves out is being a bit understated. 

[laloesch]

 

Just watching Lynn and his pitch count shoot up reminded me that this year will be another long one. 88 pitches through 4 innings. We wonder then about lackluster fielding? Only 10 pitches in the 5th, the Toronto batters were either feeling compassion for Lynn or the players were just getting tired of taking batting practice and probably wanted to face a different pitcher.

 

Sure does look like the rest of the league and the Twins were colluding against Lynn and swindled him out of a multi-year contract for 100+ million at this point doesn't it?