Article: Searching for Answers on Trevor Hildenberger

[Nick Nelson]

There has understandably been much hand-wringing over the Twins bullpen here in April. The unit has not performed, with fresh additions like Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney proving problematic in the early going. Another newcomer, Tyler Kinley, has already been shipped out.

 

But in my mind, the most alarming development in Minnesota's relief corps is the striking and inexplicable regression of a player who seemed to be its safest bet.

 

If Trevor Hildenberger can't find it again, and soon, the Twins are in real trouble.Coming into the season, there were plenty of question marks surrounding the Twins bullpen, rebuilt in the wake of an unimpressive 2017 campaign.

 

Hildenberger didn't seem to be one of them, at least not from my view.

 

The formula he deployed very successfully as a rookie was an extremely reliable one: ground balls (58.8% GB), strikeouts (9.4 K/9) and control (1.3 BB/9). Combine these three components, and you've got an almost unassailable recipe for consistently getting hitters out. These are the same strengths that carried Hildenberger through the minors, where he posted a 1.57 ERA in four seasons.

 

The right-hander's signature skills were noticeably amiss in spring training, where he walked four hitters and surrendered five homers in 12 innings. Last year with the Twins, he allowed only four homers and four unintentional walks in 42 innings.

 

But, it's spring training. Struggles during the exhibition slate don't always — or even often — transfer to the regular season. Following one of the righty's rough Grapefruit League outings, I asked Paul Molitor if something seemed off to him about Hildenberger, given the sudden and odd tendency to cough up free passes and long balls.

 

The manager acknowledged that his staff had noticed issues in the sidearmer's delivery.

 

"He's trying really hard to make some adjustments," Molitor said. "I think there have been some things that Garvin (Alston) and Eddie (Guardado) have been looking at to try to get him back mechanically to where he was last year. I think there are some things that are a little bit off. If you're out there thinking about mechanics you're probably not going to make very good pitches."

 

Despite Hildenberger's 7.50 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in 12 Grapefruit League appearances, the Twins never seemed to give much thought to leaving him off the roster, which isn't surprising. He was one of Molitor's most vital and trusted weapons after joining the roster in 2017, accruing the second-highest WPA of all relievers on the staff. And hey, it was only spring training.

 

Unfortunately, in this case, the distressing aspects of an ugly spring have carried over into the games that matter. It is apparent that Hildenberger is out of whack. In just 10 innings, he has already allowed three homers and three unintentional walks — again, he totaled four of each in in 42 frames with Minnesota last year. His ground ball rate is down from 58.8% to 39.4%. Swinging strikes are down from 11.8% to 9.0%.

 

In some ways, the Twins have bigger fish to fry — as of now, Rodney is the lunker of the day. But whereas most members of the bullpen are merely short-term cogs, Hildenberger is key to the big picture. What he brings when he's on his game is extremely difficult to replace. The Twins need him to become entrenched as a quality option in their pen. Right now he's a far cry from that.

 

What would you do? Send him to Triple-A to work out the kinks? Let him keep trying and fight through it in the majors, with help from Alston and Guardado?

 

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[jtkoupal]

At this point, there are no roster moves that are going to fix the Twins. They can play with the bullpen and a few odds and ends as they wish, but no roster move is going offer a real solution at this point. No prospects of significance are going to be called up until June 1, you know that.

 

I don't know if anyone else has heard anything new on Ervin Santana. That could be a boost, but regression seems inevitable after an unsustainably hot 2017. 

 

The only real solution to the Twins' problems right now is for guys to step up. The bullpen is full of sever guys who have shown they can do it. Guys will start heating up. The rotation will improve. The offense will click at some point, there is too much talent there for it not to. 

 

Patience, my friends. Better days are coming. It has been a difficult April with weather, postponements, trips to San Juan, guys who had short spring trainings, etc. The rest of the season won't be like this. This is not 2016. 

[Old Twins Cap]

You look at his strike and ball chart, and the strikes are getting the fat part of the plate, and the balls are not close.

 

Most relievers, or at least good pitchers, they only touch the strike zone on the edges.

 

That's where you need to be as a pitcher, especially in Hildenberger's case.

 

So, lack of command.  Erratic.  Whatever.

 

He's getting touched up because he's lost his touch.

 

Twins have certainly lost their touch as a unit.

[RaoulDuke]

I think they should send him down to work it out in AAA, he is obviously out of whack.  They are running through relievers quick after we thought Reed/ Duke/ Rodney would really shore things up and allow the kids to compete.

 

Trevor May cannot get healthy soon enough.  I haven't checked out minors stats hopefully Melotakis/ Jay/ Reed/ ect are doing well.

 

Chagois has 8 innings logged with LA with, 10/3 k/bb only 2 runs allowed.....

 

Why the F**&^ did Falvine let him go I just don't understand that move at all.

[mikelink45]

Nothing is more mysterious than relief pitchers.  Did he get used too much last year, did he change his routine over the winter because he was in the bigs, has he changed attitude?   Too many unknowns, but we have two pitching coaches on the staff and I remember that there is supposed to be a pitching guru that we hired in the FO.  Where are they with all the pitching woes we are seeing.  Or is the answer that there are too many coaches, too many voices?  I have no answer.  But I know that teams trade or sign great bullpen players only to wonder who swapped bodies when they appear on the new team. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

Trevor May cannot get healthy soon enough.  I haven't checked out minors stats hopefully Melotakis/ Jay/ Reed/ ect are doing well.

 

2 out of 3 are doing ok.  Jay is back from groin issues.  Reed is out likely for a while with shoulder impingement syndrome...

 

Matt Magill is doing better and likely the next reliever up

[markos]

I don't think there is much to explain or try to figure out. A certain amount of his initial success was due to his funky delivery. Big league hitters are very good, and adjust quickly. I don't think it is a coincidence that last year players that faced Hildenberger more than once had a .800 OPS, while those who have faced him only once had a .413 OPS. Also, his velocity is down about 1 MPH from last year. 

[The Wise One]

 

2 out of 3 are doing ok.  Jay is back from groin issues.  Reed is out likely for a while with shoulder impingement syndrome...

 

Matt Magill is doing better and likely the next reliever up

Magill is having a career year at AAA. Did the Padres fix something or is it a case of smart enough to get AAA batters out, not good enough for MLB

[ashbury]

Magill is having a career year at AAA. Did the Padres fix something or is it a case of smart enough to get AAA batters out, not good enough for MLB

He actually did pretty well in AAA last year. A 3.95 ERA and 1.5 WHIP look bad, but the PCL inflates numbers^*, and El Paso as a home park in particular did him no favors. The IL and Rochester have to be like a breath of fresh air for him.

 

^{* _{Western elevations don't explain away his chronic BB problem of course.}}

[Tom Froemming]

I don't think it's time to send him down. He's been put into some tough situations. Half of his appearances he's entered the game with runners on base and he's only started with his own inning in three of his 10 games. 

 

There's definitely something going on, and it sounds like he's trying to make adjustments, but that seems difficult to do while you're also trying to clean up other people's messes. I say let him get some extended work in low-leverage situations for the next couple weeks and reassess at that point.

[nicksaviking]

Are they asking him to make adjustments because something is off in his mechanics? Or are his mechanics off because they asked him to make adjustments?

 

I'm just wondering if they saw something they didn't like last year and asked him to make a change, or if they saw that he was doing something different this spring so they are asking him to change back.

[joefish]

I don't think there is much to explain or try to figure out. A certain amount of his initial success was due to his funky delivery. Big league hitters are very good, and adjust quickly. I don't think it is a coincidence that last year players that faced Hildenberger more than once had a .800 OPS, while those who have faced him only once had a .413 OPS. Also, his velocity is down about 1 MPH from last year.

[joefish]

I agree. Gimmicky pitchers generally get figured out. Hildy might be that kind of casualty

[Brandon]

He has given up 5 runs in 10 innings. And only 10 hits and 4 walks. The 3 HRs are alarming but its not like he's getting crushed. Seems like either his control is off a little or the decrease in velo or both are contributing to the worse numbers. I think he just needs more time and he'll be fine. I think the cold, postponments, and just a good old fashion few too many mistake pitches are the bigger problem.

[Rosterman]

Right now, who would they bring up that is better suited for whatever his role is in the bullpen. By the way, what is his role...to come in, worth men on base, and end the inning. Not working. Pitch mix/match? Is the film on him working for the other team? Is his velocity down? Better to work on it in the minors, in many ways. But if you choose between him or, say, Busenitz or Curtiss, who do you pick?

 

The Twins are actually one plus in the relief corps now...but only if they felt the need for a stronger bench.

 

Buxton coming back will show movement of a bullpen arm, perhaps.

[Danchat]

At this point, we're searching for answers for every single pitcher not named Gibson, Berrios, Reed, and Pressly.

[ashbury]

At this point, we're searching for answers for every single pitcher not named Gibson, Berrios, Reed, and Pressly.

_{Sh! What are you trying to do, jinx them too?}