Article: Week in Review: Too Many Missteps

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins played only five games over the past week, though it felt like they got two in on Wednesday when they outlasted the Indians over 16 innings.

 

In a week that unfortunately featured a lot more lowlights than highlights, we'll cover both below while also looking ahead to one of the toughest series on the schedule.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/16 through Sun, 4/22

***

Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 8-8)

Run Differential Last Week: -16 (Overall: -2)

Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1..5 GB)

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Eduardo Escobar met Nicolas Cage in Puerto Rico and got a photo with him. Pretty hard to top that:

 

 

Whitney McIntosh of SB Nation wrote up an article later in the week discussing seven things we know and 10 we don't about the meeting – very amusing read.

 

Also, there was baseball.

 

As far as bright spots on the field over the past week, Wednesday's marathon victory over Cleveland in San Juan is really the only qualifier. That game featured plenty of encouraging developments, namely the third absolute gem this year from Jose Berrios – who is very much pitching like an elite ace – and strong work from seven relievers who followed him.

 

 

The offense was quiet for much of the week, scoring once in two games and twice in another, but did show impressive resilience by mounting comebacks against the Rays on Friday and Sunday. One of the few hitters to shine throughout the week was Brian Dozier, who extended his team-record season-opening hitting streak to 16 games on Sunday.

 

Dozier went 9-for-26 for the week and is slashing .310/.372/.535 on the season. Helping drive his success is the fact that he has significantly cut down on the whiffs; the second baseman's 15.4% K-rate is well below last year's 20% mark. He's still producing plenty of power, while also protecting the plate and using all fields. Dozier looks fantastic.

 

LOWLIGHTS

 

The Twins played easily their worst ball of the season in Tampa Bay, where they were swept by the Rays in a series that featured plenty of puzzlement and frustration. A few items of note:

 

* At a time where Robbie Grossman should seemingly be playing his way out of the Twins' plans, he is instead somehow working his way into more critical spots.

 

Grossman's season started on a very positive note, when he delivered a game-tying two-run bloop single as a pinch-hitter in the opener. Since then, it's been ugly. He has looked terrible defensively when in the outfield, and has gone 3-for-33 with 14 strikeouts and two walks since the aforementioned single.

 

With Byron Buxton sidelined by migraines, Grossman started all five games last week, going 2-for-16 at the plate and committing an error in right field on Friday that cost a run.

 

Despite this lack of effectiveness at the plate, Paul Molitor inexplicably had Grossman in as his cleanup hitter on Saturday in Tampa, and then in the No. 3 spot on Sunday. Maybe it was just an attempt to boost his confidence. Whatever the case, it's hard to believe that Grossman – who ranks second-to-last on the team in WAR (ahead of only Logan Morrison) – has a particularly long leash. He needs to hit to have value, and when you combine his poor start with his pedestrian 2017 campaign and a .720 career OPS, there's just not a lot to fall back on.

 

* As expected, Phil Hughes was called up to make Sunday's start with the Twins finally in need of a fifth rotation member. He looked about exactly like one would expect – which is to say, not good enough.

 

He needed 70 pitches to get 10 outs, giving up five hits (including a homer) with two walks and two strikeouts. Molitor pulled him after he gave up two singles in the fourth.

 

Hughes had decent enough command, but there's just no upside in his repertoire at this point. He doesn't have the stuff to consistently get big-league hitters out and while it's commendable that he's doing what he can to reinvent himself, sooner than later the Twins will need to come to grips with the situation and make a decision for the good of the team. As we'll discuss in the "Down on the Farm" section, one starter in particular may be poised to force their hand.

 

* Miguel Sano's struggles were profiled in this space last time around, and the contact-challenged slugger went on to endure another tough week. His solo home run in extra innings against Cleveland, while huge, was one of only three hits in 22 plate appearances. He struck out eight times without drawing a walk, and saw his OPS drop from .908 to .744. Sano has only one multi-hit game this season.

 

* While Grossman, Hughes and Sano took their lumps, the biggest culprit in a 1-4 week that dropped the Twins to .500 was, without question, the bullpen. Gabriel Moya gave up a run on Tuesday, then surrendered three more on Saturday and found himself demoted to make room for Hughes. Tyler Kinley followed Moya in Saturday's game and also allowed three runs, pushing his ERA to 12.00 in three appearances. Fernando Rodney blew his second save on Friday night and Zach Duke followed by losing the game when he failed to touch first base and retire Denard Span as the winning run crossed home. Even Addison Reed, who's been lights-out all year, couldn't avoid the damage, coughing up Carlos Gomez's walk-off homer on Sunday.

 

TRENDING STORYLINE

 

A bad week for the bullpen shouldn't necessarily fling us all into a panic; there's still much to like about the unit. But with games scheduled for the next 16 consecutive days, and the first four of those coming at Yankee Stadium, the Twins will need all the relief help they can get. The luxury of being able to stash their Rule 5 pick Kinley for sporadic usage in inconsequential situations is going to evaporate, especially with a fifth starter now on the roster.

 

Down in Rochester, Tyler Duffey has been pitching like a man on a mission, with 11 scoreless innings and a 14-to-1 K/BB ratio in four appearances. Duffey was solid as the team's long man last year and the decision to carry Kinley over him out of spring training was somewhat dubious. A swap feels imminent. We'll see how long it takes, and whether they can find a way to keep Kinley in the organization.

 

DOWN ON THE FARM

 

Kinley isn't the only one who's being pushed by a strong performer in Triple-A. As mentioned earlier, Hughes doesn't have a ton of ground to stand on in the rotation. Twins Daily's No. 2 prospect Fernando Romero was masterful for the Red Wings on Sunday, allowing one run on two hits over 6 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and two walks. His ERA sits at 1.69. A few more outings like that should quickly put him in the discussion for that fifth starter spot.

 

Meanwhile, No. 1 prospect Royce Lewis lifted his batting average at Cedar Rapids from .222 to .323 on Saturday with a four-hit game. All is going well for the teen phenom in the Midwest League, where he has struck out only three times in 35 plate appearances.

 

Zack Littell, who we ranked as the organization's 11th-best prospect and fifth-best pitcher, has piled up 25 strikeouts in 14 innings at Chattanooga after fanning eight over 5 2/3 on Tuesday. He has induced double-digit swinging strikes in each of his three starts with an eye-popping 17% whiff rate overall. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

 

No. 7 prospect Brent Rookerslumped out of the gates at Chattanooga, entering last week with a .212 average to go along with no walks and no extra-base hits. Not exactly what you like to see out of a highly drafted college player lauded for his advanced bat. But he got it going in six games for the Lookouts last week, posting a 7-for-23 (.304) with his first Double-A homer as well as a double and triple. He still hasn't worked a single walk this season though.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

Heading to the Bronx for a four-game series against the Yankees and their loaded lineup isn't exactly the ideal elixir for a slumping team with a beleaguered bullpen, but that is what's what the Twins now face. It could be a rough week for the pitching staff, but the team will at least get a reprieve when they return home for the weekend to host Cincinnati, a team so bad it fired its manager after a 3-15 start.

 

MONDAY, 4/23: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Masahiro Tanaka

TUESDAY, 4/24: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP CC Sabathia

WEDNESDAY, 4/25: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Sonny Gray

THURSDAY, 4/26: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Jordan Montgomery

FRIDAY, 4/27: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Castillo v. RHP Phil Hughes

SATURDAY: 4/28: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Sal Romano v. RHP Jake Odorizzi

SUNDAY, 4/29: REDS @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Mahle v. RHP Jose Berrios

 

Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

• Game 12 | CLE 6, MIN 1: Kluber, Lindor Outshine Twins in Puerto Rico
• Game 13 | MIN 2, CLE 1: Berrios Stars, LaMarre Plays Hero as Twins Survive 16-Inning Duel
• Game 14 | TB 8, MIN 7: Playing the Wrong Notes
• Game 15 | TB 10, MIN 1: Snell Stifles Twins Bats
• Game 16 | TB 8, MIN 6: Twins Swept on Gomez Walk-off Homer

More on Twins Daily

• "If Joe Mauer retired today, there is a good chance he wouldn’t get the call from Cooperstown." What can he do going forward to change that? Cody Christie explored Mauer's Hall of Fame caseand how the first baseman can strengthen it before he retires.
• Meanwhile, Andrew Thares examined the myth around Mauer's supposed lack of clutch hitting. His findings are worth your time.
• Jamie Cameron broke down the numerous improvements we've seen from Max Kepler at the plate early on.
• Luke Albrecht filed a report from his experience Puerto Rico, where he watched both games between the Twins and Indians.
• Ted Schwerzler wrote about the stunning success of Ryan Pressly, who finally seems to be pulling it all together and turning his stuff into results. Pressly was flat-out nasty on Sunday, striking out four of the five hitters he shut down in order.

 

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[mikelink45]

"A bad week for the bullpen shouldn't necessarily fling us all into a panic; there's still much to like about the unit. But with games scheduled for the next 16 consecutive days, and the first four of those coming at Yankee Stadium, the Twins will need all the relief help they can get. The luxury of being able to stash their Rule 5 pick Kinley for sporadic usage in inconsequential situations is going to evaporate, especially with a fifth starter now on the roster."

 

Sorry but I am ready to panic with this bullpen.  Yikes.  Nothing like an incompetent rule 5 filling out the roster or an old and ineffective pitcher filling out the rotation.  Take out Hughes, Take out Gibson.  Lets see what Gonsalves and Romero can do (I sound like a broken record, but I mean it.)  Lynn, Duke and Rodney need to step up, Grossman needs to go down.

 

Granite is on the DL, but Wade is a better choice for the extra fielded.  Molitor batting Grossman 3 and 4 to give him confidence gives me the shutters.  Bad!

Same with letting Morrison continual bat in crucial places before he finds his bat.  

 

This is not about feelings, it is about winning.  

 

I wonder how bad it would have been to have Vargas instead of Morrison at DH?  

 

Keep an outfield defense if nothing else.

​Bring up Gordon and let him struggle and learn. 

 

Give Sano an eye test.

 

Tell Castro that a smart catcher might have an idea what they are throwing to him.

 

Tell all the coaches - I do not even know how many there are - to get to work. 

[Danchat]

It's good to see Romero is still dealing. He might be in the majors sooner than expected, as it's clear Hughes is pitching on fumes. I'm sure they don't want to rush Romero, but his time is coming...

[wsnydes]

I'm not sure who's decision it was to start Hughes today in front of the Yankees series, but it should have been expected that it'd be a short start, taxing the bullpen in a game before they head to NY where the bullpen should be expected to get plenty of work. Bumping Odorizzi up would have been my preference if for no other reason than to try to save the pen. Maybe they make a move and bring up Duffey and decide to quit hiding Kinley. I can at least understand that approach.

 

Grossman batting in the middle of the order is a complete joke. Having a hitter that is struggling as bad as Grossman is in the middle of the order is amateur hour. Following that logic, I'm half surprised that we didn't see a Grossman/Morrison 3/4 combo. Meanwhile Kepler is on fire and hitting 7th? Neat. This series isn't on Molitor, but decisions like that most certainly are and they didn't help circumstances.

Edited April 23, 2018 by wsnydes

[David HK]

"...but the team will at least get a reprieve when they return home for the weekend to host Cincinnati, a team so bad it fired its manager after a 3-15 start."

 

Y'know, that's kind of what I thought going into Tampa....  oops!

[Nick Nelson]

 

Sorry but I am ready to panic with this bullpen.  Yikes.  Nothing like an incompetent rule 5 filling out the roster or an old and ineffective pitcher filling out the rotation.  Take out Hughes, Take out Gibson.  Lets see what Gonsalves and Romero can do (I sound like a broken record, but I mean it.)  Lynn, Duke and Rodney need to step up, Grossman needs to go down.

This is fair but I will point out that the bullpen's xFIP (4.17) is way lower than its ERA (4.70) and the group is currently sporting an inflated .327 BABIP. 

 

They're averaging 9.5 K/9 after averaging 7.6 last year, which to me is a promising early sign. Let's see what happens as the luck starts to neutralize a bit. 

[rghrbek]

Couldn't we kinda see this coming with Sano?  His impatience at the plate was really starting to show last year before he got hurt.  I believe he was swinging at pitches outside the strike zone at a mid to low 20 percentile in April (when he had a ton of walks), and then got really bad before he got hurt (40%).  That was alarming last year.

 

The trend continues this year.  He has become the new Eddie R!  Troubling.

[joefish]

Rosarios little league outfield throwing blunders almost make me miss Delmon and Oswaldo. What goes through his head?

[bobs]

Good to see Twins be part of the Puerto Rico series...power outage and all.  Was great to get a picture of that island and it's truly unbelievable baseball heritage.  Weekend at the Trop?  Well, let's hope that come September we'll be saying "remember when they got swept at Tampa?!" when the Twins have about locked up a playoff spot.  It's still April people.

[KirbyDome89]

 

This is fair but I will point out that the bullpen's xFIP (4.17) is way lower than its ERA (4.70) and the group is currently sporting an inflated .327 BABIP. 

 

They're averaging 9.5 K/9 after averaging 7.6 last year, which to me is a promising early sign. Let's see what happens as the luck starts to neutralize a bit. 

Almost all of those guys have thrown less than 8 innings so I'm not sure how much we can really get from measuring collective ERA vs. collective xFIP.

 

The K/9 is encouraging but the BB/9 isn't. IMO the high BABIP is more about who is pitching rather than bad luck. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is fair but I will point out that the bullpen's xFIP (4.17) is way lower than its ERA (4.70) and the group is currently sporting an inflated .327 BABIP. 

 

They're averaging 9.5 K/9 after averaging 7.6 last year, which to me is a promising early sign. Let's see what happens as the luck starts to neutralize a bit. 

 

And, in fWAR, which is not based on ERA....they aren't in the top 20 bullpens....

 

Having two guys take up space, that really shouldn't be in the majors, doesn't help.

 

Having a LOOGY continue to face right handed batters doesn't help.

 

Not sure having Duke helps, but we'll see.

 

Rodney, meh.