Article: TB 8, MIN 7: Playing The Wrong Notes

[Riverbrian]

 

LaMarre doesn't have a "hot bat". He has struck out a lot, has no extra-base hits and literally every ball he's put in play has happened to not get caught. He's showed weakness in the form of striking out, a lack of strength with no XBH and he's been lucky. 

 

If we're going to get mad at Molitor for not taking statistics into consideration, we need to be consistent. The underlying numbers on LaMarre clearly show that his hot streak is a mirage. 

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "Struck out a lot". 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "No XBH"

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "He's been Lucky" 

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "an everyday job in the major leagues either". 

 

The underlying numbers don't clearly show anything. 

 

I'm asking for LaMarre to get the opportunity to get some actual underlying numbers. 

[howieramone2]

I'm promoting LaMarre simply because, right now, he's the hot hand. Also, I believe a ball got by Mr. Grossman last night that Kepler, or, perhaps, LaMarre would have caught. 

 

I believe it's up to the Manager to identify the hot bat and use it until that bat cools down. Obviously, this is not done with players that are considered regulars but, I don't consider Grossman to be a regular. 

 

My biggest frustration with Mr. Molitor is that he seems to make the conventional decisions that are safe and won't be questioned. I see very little innovation is Molitor's approach to the game.

I'm promoting LaMarre simply because, right now, he's the hot hand. Also, I believe a ball got by Mr. Grossman last night that Kepler, or, perhaps, LaMarre would have caught. 

 

I believe it's up to the Manager to identify the hot bat and use it until that bat cools down. Obviously, this is not done with players that are considered regulars but, I don't consider Grossman to be a regular. 

 

My biggest frustration with Mr. Molitor is that he seems to make the conventional decisions that are safe and won't be questioned. I see very little innovation is Molitor's approach to the game.

The reigning AL manager of the year, is very good with young players. As our young stars continue to mature, you will see Molly institute small ball more and more. Time to embrace the big picture.

[jorgenswest]

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "Struck out a lot". 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "No XBH"

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "He's been Lucky" 

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "an everyday job in the major leagues either". 

 

The underlying numbers don't clearly show anything. 

 

I'm asking for LaMarre to get the opportunity to get some actual underlying numbers. 

If we are going to judge by numbers, we can start using slash stats at around a full season of plate appearances. We can look at strike out rates, walk rates and ISO at around a quarter season of regular play. Are you asking for to get an opportunity to the point where the sample is meaningful?

[Mike Sixel]

There was no reason at all for Lynn to go back out there. Terrible decision.

 

This is the Rodney they signed, don't know why anyone is surprised . Same with Duke and Reed.

 

I agree with a poster above, they should call up Garver at some point and play him

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not at all suggesting they micromanage Molitor.

 

What I mean, is they chose to bring Molitor back, and they know he will not use a LOOGY.

So, they have/had two choices.

Hire a manager that will use a LOOGY.

Or, don't sign a LOOGY, when you know your manager won't use him properly.

not resign manager of the year and St Paul native Paul Molitor? Is that realistic?

[howieramone2]

There was no reason at all for Lynn to go back out there. Terrible decision.

 

This is the Rodney they signed, don't know why anyone is surprised . Same with Duke and Reed.

 

I agree with a poster above, they should call up Garver at some point and play him

I'm not surprised. Lamarre is the flavor of the month and Garver, in continuing the TD tradition started with the likes of Pinto, Arcia, and Vargas, is a new board favorite.

Edited April 21, 2018 by howieramone2

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not surprised. Lamarre is the flavor of the month and Garver, in continuing the TD tradition started with the likes of Pinto, Arcia, and Vargas, is the new board favorite.

Garver was the prospect of the year here not long ago, not a flavor of the month. Not even close. As for Lamarre, I have no idea why you mentioned him on response to me. I've never asked for him to even be on the roster.

[ThejacKmp]

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "Struck out a lot". 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "No XBH"

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "He's been Lucky" 

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "an everyday job in the major leagues either". 

 

The underlying numbers don't clearly show anything. 

 

I'm asking for LaMarre to get the opportunity to get some actual underlying numbers. 

 

But he does have enough at bats that he qualifies as a "hot bat"? Can't have it both ways, either he has enough at bats for us to draw conclusions or he doesn't.

 

People are arguing that his results this year demand more playing time. That couldn't be farther from the truth. His hits are all singles and every ball he puts in play has landed safely. He's been striking out a lot - 5 times in 12 at-bats. The only thing keeping it going is that 7/7 batted balls are hits. If he had a regular BABIP of .333 he'd be 2 for 12 with five strikeouts and people would be fishing through the Rochester box scores to see who should be brought up for him.

 

We need to get some perspective on Mr. Lamarre. People are setting themselves up for disappointment.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I would have sat Sano last night for Adrianza.

The next two games are versus left handers so LaMarre needs to play. We all know the small sample but as long as he's producing get him in there, especially with these other guys looking lost. Garver should catch tonight and DH tomorrow or vice versa.

 

LaMarre should definitely get one of the games. I'm not sure he should get both. Grossman is a better player historically and is much more likely to be an enduring part of the Twins team than LaMarre. It'd be smart for the Twins to get Grossman one of those two games.

 

Garver DHing is not a bad idea though again, the Twins might be better off getting Grossman some RH DH at-bats that game and keeping Garver as a PH for Castro late in the game against a lefty reliever.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm promoting LaMarre simply because, right now, he's the hot hand. Also, I believe a ball got by Mr. Grossman last night that Kepler, or, perhaps, LaMarre would have caught. 

 

I believe it's up to the Manager to identify the hot bat and use it until that bat cools down. Obviously, this is not done with players that are considered regulars but, I don't consider Grossman to be a regular. 

 

My biggest frustration with Mr. Molitor is that he seems to make the conventional decisions that are safe and won't be questioned. I see very little innovation is Molitor's approach to the game.

 

Grossman is far more likely to be an enduring part of this team than LaMarre. The Twins should invest at-bats in him over a guy who is a fringe 25-man guy.

 

I'm also always baffled by the hot bat thing. I agree that there are times that guys look dialed in. And maybe it works for guys like Dozier or Mauer where the hot streak runs for 2-3 weeks. But for a guy like LaMarre, aren't you also going to get two 0-5 games at the end before you find out that the hot streak is over? You've gotten maybe two games of hot streak and gotten two games of "Oh yeah, that's why we got this guy for nothing."

 

There are reasons to worry about Grossman and reasons to upgrade on the 4th OF at the deadline (Andrew McCutchen is my target) but Ryan LaMarre is not likely to be that upgrade. Grossman has proven himself on the MLB level and deserves a little more time before we write him off. Same thing with Logan Morrison.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thank you for putting me in a position to defend Mr. Molitor.*

 

With roster spots at a premium the "LOOGY" pitcher has become a luxury most teams cannot afford these days. Lefties have to have the ability to get out right-handed batters these days or they, most likely, are going to be looking for another job.

 

*do I really need to mention that was sarcasm?

the one issue I have on this roster/bullpen is 3 LOOGYs and a rule 5 guy with a thin bench and short one fireman. They really need another arm that can warm up quick and get your starter out of a jam. Lots of inherited runners scored, not much trust by Molly for too many members of the bullpen.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Garver was the prospect of the year here not long ago, not a flavor of the month. Not even close. As for Lamarre, I have no idea why you mentioned him on response to me. I've never asked for him to even be on the roster.

 

Garver is rated a B-/C prospect by most lists (B = could be an everyday player, C = likely a role player). He's not an elite prospect and has been built up a bit too much on TD. I like Garver great as a backup catcher who also profiles as a nice bench bat and spot starter at 1B/DH. It's also nice that he can play corner OF in a pinch and has some pop.

 

But he's not some elite hitter and he shouldn't be the Twins DH when he's not catching. Maybe the occasional DH spot against a tough lefty?

[ThejacKmp]

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "Struck out a lot". 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "No XBH"

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "He's been Lucky" 

 

He hasn't had enough plate appearances to qualify for "an everyday job in the major leagues either". 

 

The underlying numbers don't clearly show anything. 

 

I'm asking for LaMarre to get the opportunity to get some actual underlying numbers. 

 

Also, we have a lot of underlying numbers for LaMarre. Those would be his minor league numbers and his struggles at the MLB level in the past.

 

It would be one thing if LaMarre had solid minor-league numbers like Grossman (.772 OPS in AAA), Garver (.905 OPS) or Granite (.830 OPS). But he doesn't. His AAA OPS is .726 with 19 home runs in almost 1000 at-bats. Guys with that track record better be elite CF or have elite base running skills to hang on as 4th outfielders. Ryan LaMarre is not that guy; he profiles to have a sub .700 OPS in the majors with little pop and average corner outfield defense and base running.

Edited April 21, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[slash129]

At least Cleveland lost

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

I'm nowhere near jumping ship right now. But it's extremely frustrating for a team likely fighting tooth-and-nail for the last wildcard spot to be dropping games like these. This game literally might be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

 

But games like this happen at least several times a year (to every team). They certainly happened to the Twins last season, and yes, there were some who thought those losses were "season-enders" for us. It turns out the Twins made the playoffs fairly easily.

 

Close losses are frustrating, but they happen a lot in baseball. The Twins will be fine.    

[rghrbek]

Lynn coming out for the 7th, is pretty weird.  Strib insinuated that Molly wanted him to get more innings.  If true that is flawed thinking.

 

I am more concerned about Molly's bullpen usage.  Not so much last night, as the order he threw the pitchers out there was per the plan in the off season.  More so how he has used Duke

 

Duke was decent against righty's last year.  I believe that was his only year that he was good in that matter.  I think we can all agree let's slow down trying to have Duke pitch against multiple right handed batters.  Molly has just given him the 6th or 7th inning no matter who is batting.  That has to stop.  

 

I am also fearful that if Rodney (who has one clean inning in all of his appearances and I think that was a double play ball when he came in w/ runners on base) continues to pitch poorly that they don't wait for him to get better into June.  Same with Duke.

 

I also see a trend of not pinch hitting for Castro with Garver, very late in games or in extra innings.  Seems he has the same fear that Gardy did of being stuck with no catcher on your bench, which is silly.

 

 

[Rosterman]

LaMarre is hot. Okay, Grossman can draw a walk...but....

 

Line-up construction. How much longer is Sano in the #3. Of course, it is a tossup who bats cleanup. Rosario? Morrison? Sano?

 

Maybe time to put Kepler in the #3 spot (although I would love to see Dozier there, with Buxton getting his act together and leading off, but what do I know - yes, I know nothing).

 

Why send Lynn out for the 7th. You have the BIGGEST bullpen ever. And, please, use Kinley and Moya. Using either of them, you might still be behind by four runs, but no matter what you do you can't control bad pitching.

 

So, safe to say that we aren't safe at all if Rodney has to pitch in a one-run save opportunity? Still scary if it is only a two-run lead. The guy has stuff, but does he really have a plan beyond trying to throw it past the batter (which he almost did, on the other side of Gomez). 

 

Always thought Duke was a pure situational lefty. He gets a guy on base, pull him. That's the rule (wish the same could be said on Rodney's use). 

 

Trying to squeeze that extra out of a pitcher. Thought Molly would learn from Gardenhie's mistakes.

 

Bad use of bullpen. You right now have EIGHT arms out there. To get NINE out in a game. Go for it!

 

Homer leader leading off. Strikeout King batting third. Morrison fighting to get a hit. Yes, you know (hope) things SHOULD change with the seasoned regulars, but.......

 

[Mr. Brooks]

not resign manager of the year and St Paul native Paul Molitor? Is that realistic?

That wasn't the only option that I gave.

The other option is, don't sign a LOOGY when you have a manager that you know isn't going to use him properly.

[bluechipper]

 

LaMarre doesn't have a "hot bat". He has struck out a lot, has no extra-base hits and literally every ball he's put in play has happened to not get caught. He's showed weakness in the form of striking out, a lack of strength with no XBH and he's been lucky. 

 

If we're going to get mad at Molitor for not taking statistics into consideration, we need to be consistent. The underlying numbers on LaMarre clearly show that his hot streak is a mirage. 

I'll take my chances seeing if LaMarre's "hot bat" is a mirage or not if it means having a competent defensive player playing RF. 

[bluechipper]

All of these walks are getting ridiculous. The Twins current BB/9 of 4.11 would have been the second worst rate in 2017.

[Riverbrian]

 

If we are going to judge by numbers, we can start using slash stats at around a full season of plate appearances. We can look at strike out rates, walk rates and ISO at around a quarter season of regular play. Are you asking for to get an opportunity to the point where the sample is meaningful?

 

I am asking for opportunity. 

 

I get small sample sizes and I'm saying that 7 for 12 doesn't prove anything about his past or future but it does say that he deserves a chance to try and go 10 for 16 right now and so on. Let Ryan LaMarre determine if he is a major league ball player. I'm not comfortable with any manager making the decision for him. 

 

I have a lot of responses to respond to and I don't want to turn last nights game into a discussion on LaMarre so I will start a new thread with my thoughts nutshelled to the best of my ability (which is a low bar to clear). 

 

 

[jkcarew]

Lot of things working against the club right now with the injuries, struggles, weird schedule, etc...and now the very back end of the rotation getting exposed, followed by a trip to Yankee Stadium.  There are points, even for contending teams, where it's good enough to simply avoid the catastrophic losing skid.  Feels like that's where the club is right now.

 

And so far, so good:  six of the last seven starters faced by the Twins:  Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, Kluber, Carrasco, and Archer.  Record:  3-3.

 

Survive to thrive.  Live to fight another day.  It's a marathon.  What am I forgetting?

 

 

[mikelink45]

I am less concerned with Molitor than with the team.  Managers are always over and underrated.  But I go back to my premise in the off season when many thought we should be mining free agents and my mantra is bring up the young players.   Of course you do not do that if you have a lousy minor league group, but we don't.  I wanted Romero and Gonsalves, I wanted Chargois and some of our minor league relief pitchers.  I would have had Vargas at DH or someone else that got hot in the minors, I would have Gordon auditioning at SS.  And I would have Granite or Wade as the fourth outfielder and I would play LaMarre until the star stops shining.

​Go with the hot hand, go with the talent.  I know that is not popular, but what I am seeing right now does nothing to diminish those thoughts.  

[h2oface]

 

LaMarre doesn't have a "hot bat". He has struck out a lot, has no extra-base hits and literally every ball he's put in play has happened to not get caught. He's showed weakness in the form of striking out, a lack of strength with no XBH and he's been lucky. 

 

If we're going to get mad at Molitor for not taking statistics into consideration, we need to be consistent. The underlying numbers on LaMarre clearly show that his hot streak is a mirage. 

 

Now there is some alternative facts for you.

[h2oface]

 

Also, we have a lot of underlying numbers for LaMarre. Those would be his minor league numbers and his struggles at the MLB level in the past.

 

It would be one thing if LaMarre had solid minor-league numbers like Grossman (.772 OPS in AAA), Garver (.905 OPS) or Granite (.830 OPS). But he doesn't. His AAA OPS is .726 with 19 home runs in almost 1000 at-bats. Guys with that track record better be elite CF or have elite base running skills to hang on as 4th outfielders. Ryan LaMarre is not that guy; he profiles to have a sub .700 OPS in the majors with little pop and average corner outfield defense and base running.

 

Nobody, including LaMarre himself, is thinking this will last forever, or even that much longer, perhaps! But it is happening now, and the balls hit are falling in. To waste it is unevolved management. People won't be slumping forever, either (hope hope). If players get butthurt by sitting when they suck, they need to grow up and be part of a team.

[Blake]

 

Grossman is far more likely to be an enduring part of this team than LaMarre. The Twins should invest at-bats in him over a guy who is a fringe 25-man guy.

 

I'm also always baffled by the hot bat thing. I agree that there are times that guys look dialed in. And maybe it works for guys like Dozier or Mauer where the hot streak runs for 2-3 weeks. But for a guy like LaMarre, aren't you also going to get two 0-5 games at the end before you find out that the hot streak is over? You've gotten maybe two games of hot streak and gotten two games of "Oh yeah, that's why we got this guy for nothing."

 

There are reasons to worry about Grossman and reasons to upgrade on the 4th OF at the deadline (Andrew McCutchen is my target) but Ryan LaMarre is not likely to be that upgrade. Grossman has proven himself on the MLB level and deserves a little more time before we write him off. Same thing with Logan Morrison.

I'd buy that argument but I saw a couple of plays in the game against the Rays that reminded me more of Grossman when he started with the team than the one we saw last year.

 

It is what it is. 

 

Fun to argue about, though.

[Blake]

 

The reigning AL manager of the year, is very good with young players. As our young stars continue to mature, you will see Molly institute small ball more and more. Time to embrace the big picture.

Where's the fun in that? 

 

Since I cannot argue with the umpire, I must argue with those who are available!

[Mike Sixel]

Garver is rated a B-/C prospect by most lists (B = could be an everyday player, C = likely a role player). He's not an elite prospect and has been built up a bit too much on TD. I like Garver great as a backup catcher who also profiles as a nice bench bat and spot starter at 1B/DH. It's also nice that he can play corner OF in a pinch and has some pop.

 

But he's not some elite hitter and he shouldn't be the Twins DH when he's not catching. Maybe the occasional DH spot against a tough lefty?

How about catching? Maybe at least one third of the time? Where did I say DH?

[Platoon]

Some random thoughts:

 

Grossman has a good eye(s). Which would be more useful if he could hit. He can be neutralized by simply throwing him strikes. No nibbling. He should not be allowed to possess a fielders glove. If he does have one, no one should tell Molitor.

 

LaMarre has enough history available to know what he is. Not that good a hitter, with enough defensive ability to filed three OF positions.

 

Reigning MOTY? First team ever to go from 100 + losses to playoffs? And how many teams have went from 83 wins to 103 losses? How many managers get a chance to survive 103 losses with the expectations that 2016 held, or even get to finish the season? I remain a firm believer that a good manager may win you a few games, but a bad manager will lose you many more. And I do not regard Molitor as a good manager. Remove his MLB player career and his St. Paul roots from his resume, and he would have been out of here two years ago, or probably not even hired in the first place.

[KirbyDome89]

 

But he does have enough at bats that he qualifies as a "hot bat"? Can't have it both ways, either he has enough at bats for us to draw conclusions or he doesn't.

 

People are arguing that his results this year demand more playing time. That couldn't be farther from the truth. His hits are all singles and every ball he puts in play has landed safely. He's been striking out a lot - 5 times in 12 at-bats. The only thing keeping it going is that 7/7 batted balls are hits. If he had a regular BABIP of .333 he'd be 2 for 12 with five strikeouts and people would be fishing through the Rochester box scores to see who should be brought up for him.

 

We need to get some perspective on Mr. Lamarre. People are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Nobody is arguing that it's sustainable. The guy is swinging a hot bat, there's no denying that, so why not take advantage of it while it's still hot and then toss him aside when reality sets in? That's really all anybody has suggested, I don't think it's unreasonable.