Article: Myth Busting: How Has Joe Mauer Fared in the Clutch?

[Steve Lein]

 

P.S. "you're not going to convince me" is a bad way to contribute to a discussion. It ends the inquisitive process and makes it about forcing other people to agree with you.

 

Don't take it personal I've had this discussion many times. I want my best hitter in that situation to be that best hitter, that's all this is getting at. It's my opinion, and that statement is not meant to discourage any other discussion.

[Tom Froemming]

 

That's scoring *A* run, meaning 1 single run. What about the chances for scoring multiple runs? That's probably the important one, being that we were down 4 runs in 7th inning at the time.

I believe the overall run expectancy based on the data from 2010-15 says your expected runs that inning jumps from .319 to .429. Here's a link to the Run Expectancy Matrix.

 

With 2-outs and a runner on 2B, average number of runs: .319

With 2-outs and runners on 1B and 2B, average number of runs is .429.

 

As far as walks go, I'll take one in pretty much any situation from any batter. If his teammates get out and no runs score, that's their fault. Don't blame it on the guy who reached safely.

 

The only way an inning ends is by recording three outs. A hitter's ability to simply not get out is still an underrated skill. Joe Mauer is a very good hitter, but his career BABIP is .342, meaning he gets out 65.8 percent of the time he puts the ball in play. Gimme a walk all day, every day.

[jmlease1]

 

Wade Boggs doesn't take that 2-0 pitch.

 

But you're right about one thing...I don't give a damn about "clutch OBP." 

 

And BTW since teams abandon right field against Mauer, even a double to right scores Grossman, with two out, easily.

 

Bold statement on Boggs, not sure it holds up. Mauer and Boggs are pretty darn similar in a lot of ways as hitters. lots of singles, always willing to take a walk, OB% running about 85 pts ahead of their BA, not a big HR threat outside of one freak year, enough doubles to keep a respectable slugging %...

 

I wouldn't be too sure Boggs would swing at that 2-0 pitch.

[Steve Lein]

 

And for the record, IMO "run expectancy tables" are a pretty bad way to manage a baseball game.   Very few individual situations are exactly the same as the aggregate of thousands of situations.

 

Mike Trout against Taylor Rogers isn't the same as Adrianza vs Andrew Miller. But a run expectancy table treats them both the same.

 

Yup, and this is exactly why I'm taking into account the individual hitting ability of Joe Mauer in my comments for these situations. I'd expect his to be even higher individually, but a walk takes that advantage away.

 

Not at all ragging on Mauer, he's a great hitter as I've said several times now. 

 

Just for some #FunWithNumbers, anyone know how many times Mauer has delivered a walk-off hit in his career? Game-winning hits? I wonder if those totals would surprise you.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Don't take it personal I've had this discussion many times. I want my best hitter in that situation to be that best hitter, that's all this is getting at. It's my opinion, and that statement is not meant to discourage any other discussion.

 

Not taking it personally. Just saying that if your interest is to spark a discussion and learn, "you're not going to convince me" tells people you're not interested in them responding. They then are not likely to respond.

 

Too many people take this attitude towards subjects vastly more important than Mauer (gun control, abortion, race) and it makes the world a worse place.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Fun part about evaluating your idea here, is you can actually throw some Run Expectancy stuff at it, and your "chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base" comment is, well, not actually true.

 

Straight from Tom Tango, and tables for "the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning, from each base/out state":

 

With 2-outs and a runner on 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.216.

 

With 2-outs and runners on 1B and 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.222.

 

Basically, it doesn't affect that chance to score runs at all.

 

When you take into account Mauer's hitting ability, individually, to that situation you're not going to convince me passing it on to the next guy is the better option. That's what my "I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch" comment gets at.

 

The score matters a ton in this situation to. At  0-0 in the first, I think aggressive is smarter. Down 6-1 late though? You need a lot more than 1 run and don't have many chances left. I think the walk certainly makes more sense, because the expectancy of scoring multiple runs just went up significantly. 

 

But yes, we both agree that Joe needs to show more aggression at times. 

[Loosey]

I think if you can get on base in clutch situations without causing anyone else to get out, you are clutch.  

 

For example down 1 run in the ninth with 2 outs and no one on, the best result would be a home run to tie the game.  The worst would be to make the last out.  By taking a walk in that situation he extends the game.  

 

Mauer has a .392 career OBP.  Probably the best of anyone on the team.

 

I would like to see a stat that shows in late inning situations (tied or down by 1 run) what percentage of time a run has scored to tie or take the lead after Joe kept the game alive with 1 or more outs. 

 

Perhaps it is very, very low and will depend on the quality of player behind him.  But I would like to see that compared to other players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hate to agree with Chief on anything Mauer related but it wouldn’t have killed Joe to swing at that 2-0 pitch.

 

I’m not one to get too down on Joe because his approach is so consistent and solid but that doesn’t mean it isn’t occasionally aggravating, either.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I hate to agree with Chief on anything Mauer related but it wouldn’t have killed Joe to swing at that 2-0 pitch.

I’m not one to get too down on Joe because his approach is so consistent and solid but that doesn’t mean it isn’t occasionally aggravating, either.

 

There's something to be said about the quality of hitters behind you as well. Sano is striking out a bit too much at the moment, but when he's on, I'd probably prefer Mauer taking that walk more times than not. Mauer didnt' always have good hitters behind him though. That's a place where you want him being more aggressive.

[D. Hocking]

 

I hate to agree with Chief on anything Mauer related but it wouldn’t have killed Joe to swing at that 2-0 pitch.

I’m not one to get too down on Joe because his approach is so consistent and solid but that doesn’t mean it isn’t occasionally aggravating, either.

 

I think baseball  more than any other sport, even your favorite players are going to aggravate you from time to time.   The chance of failure is about 70% regardless of their game-plan, and it is easy to second guess them once the at-bat is over.

[ewen21]

 

Interesting spin on this topic, which is one I researched myself about 3 years ago, though in a different way.

Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't define Mauer as "clutch," but I would call him "not as clutch as you'd expect for a hitter of his caliber."

My research was based on what I called "RBI percentage."

Pretty simple: how many guys had he driven in divided by how many possible runners had he had to drive in (including himself with a HR).

I compared him to the primary 1B #3 hitter of every team at the time from the prior season and the results for him were decidedly... (drum roll) ... below average.
 

I would agree with the underlined.  I also looked at how much more often he walks with RISP than he does with no one on base.  When you compare him to say....Miguel Cabrera, a guy who people DEFINITELY pitched around he walks way WAY more with RISP.

 

I just don't see a whole lot of "Joe Mauer Moments" on his resume.  He had that walk off HR last season and his only other walk-off hit up until then was against Oakland in 2007.  My main issue with Joe is in big situations I see him standing in the box watching fat pitches sail on by way too often.  I wouldn't call that a myth

 

 

 

 

[ewen21]

 

Concur.

 

Which is why it's important to attempt to take advantage of situations where you have a better than ordinary chance.

 

Mauer--regarded as a "great hitter" by many here--bats left handed and has a fairly predictable pitch coming at 2-0, against a tough RH hitter. He takes the pitch. Ultimately, he leaves it to Sano, a strikeout prone RH hitter who was, I believe, something like 1 for 20 against Kluber coming into the game, to drive in the run(s).

 

Very few "great" hitters take that pitch in that situation. For a good reason. It's a bad approach.

Even Joey Votto, who also gets criticized for watching too many pitches go by doesn't get as stiff as Mauer does with RISP.  He has walked 365 times in his career with RISP, less 133 IBB that = 232 walks.  With no one on he has walked 470 times (more than twice that amount).  Mauer, on the other hand, has walked 403 times with RISP, less 140 IBB that = 363 walks with RISP.  With no one on?  Mauer just 349 times.  Even with the intentional passes subtracted out, Mauer has walked more with RISP than he has with no one on.  How is that even possible?

 

It is pretty easy to see that Joe becomes way more selective with RISP than he should. He was paid to be the franchise player it was incumbent upon him to carry more of that weight.  Like you say he seems content to just unhook the shin guard and trot down to first and consider it a success.

 

For a contrast, Miguel Cabrera:

[Thrylos]

 

 

Over at Fangraphs, they have their own way of calculating how clutch a player has been in their career, with a stat that they refer to simply as Clutch. If you want to read more about how this stat is formulated you can do so here.

In the history of the Minnesota Twins, there have been 164 hitters who have had at least 300 plate appearances as a member of the organization, and of those 164, Joe Mauer ranks as the ninth most clutch player.

Unsurprisingly, Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek rank as the most and second most clutch players in Twins history. While Torii Hunter, Tom Brunansky and Roy Smalley all ranked as the three least clutch players in Twins history.

 

A couple of caveats regarding this: 

 

- the data is good starting 1974, so lots of players including Oliva, Killebrew etc are excluded.

 

- This is like WAR, so it is cumulative measurement, so people who played more seasons have higher.  Also, it is a situational measurement, so it is relative to other players. So a Clutch/season might be a more interesting measurement.  To that point. Mauer is ranked 9th with a 2.55 clutch measurement.  Arguably, the number 10th ranked Twins player, Delmon Young wiht a 2.52 measurement, but in about half of Mauer's seasons is twice as "Clutch" as Mauer, per that measurement    So not sure how it can help with granular quantifying comparisons of outcomes between players.

 

Of course, as far as perennial negative "Clutch" hitters like Hunter, Cuddyer, and Dozier go, it can be very informative...

 

It is more of a trend measurement (overall positive or overall negative) vs. quantifying...

 

[gagu]

 

Not trying to open a can of worms here or attack your work.

 

Unless I am missing it, you reference the phrases "high leverage", "medium leverage", and "low leverage" without ever defining what those actually mean.  I know those definitions aren't exactly static, but some general explanation of what those means could be helpful.

 

I interpreted this statement, "In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position", as you further proving he is clutch because he hits well with RISP + 2 outs.  I wouldn't call it "clutch" if that happens in the first inning, but would might call it "clutch" if that happens in the 9th inning depending on the situation.

 

It's not "clutch" if the game is out of reach in either direction.

It is "clutch"if that happens in the 9th inning, we are losing, and he ties the game. 

It's even "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are tied, and it wins the game. 

It's EVEN "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are losing, and and it wins the game.

 

I guess my point is what defines "clutch"?  What defines low leverage v. medium leverage v. high leverage?

For what it's worth, Dynasty League Baseball is a very accurate computer/board game. This is their criteria: "Clutch Hitter" situations occur whenever the tying or go-ahead run is on base or at bat from the 7th inning on, or at any time when there are runners in scoring position with two outs. "Jam Pitcher" situations occur whenever the tying or go-ahead run is on base or at bat from the 7th inning on, or at any time when there are runners in scoring position with two outs. A Jam pitcher cancels out a Clutch hitter advantage and vice versa. Vintage Mauer was always a "clutch" hitter in the seasons that I purchased the cards..

I've forgotten the exact details now but I think it was the during the 2013 All Star game that Tim McCarver described Mauer as the best clutch hitter in baseball at that time. 

I love all the arguments and counter-arguments that come with the nuances of the game. So many gray areas. But I'm satisfied that Mauer has fit the definition of a clutch hitter.

[DJSim22]

Is there another player who is more unappreciated in sports by hometown fans?  It's mind numbing, kind of embarrassing.  

Edited April 19, 2018 by DJSim22

[ken]

Is there another player who is more unappreciated in sports by hometown fans? It's mind numbing, kind of embarrassing.

All players have flaws and discussing isn't showing a lack of appreciation for what a does well.

 

It's like saying we should just be happy the Twins made the playoffs last year and shouldn't discuss what they need to do to improve team.

[Steve Lein]

 

I would agree with the underlined.  I also looked at how much more often he walks with RISP than he does with no one on base.  When you compare him to say....Miguel Cabrera, a guy who people DEFINITELY pitched around he walks way WAY more with RISP.

 

I just don't see a whole lot of "Joe Mauer Moments" on his resume.  He had that walk off HR last season and his only other walk-off hit up until then was against Oakland in 2007.  My main issue with Joe is in big situations I see him standing in the box watching fat pitches sail on by way too often.  I wouldn't call that a myth

 

Yup, your walking with RISP idea was the basis for why I looked at that data.

 

And I asked a similar "Joe Mauer Moments" question because I have had the same observations. I don't have the patience to look up his 'game-winning hits' total, but I know he only has 2 walk-off hits in his career.

 

Randball wrote on this last September: http://www.startribune.com/analysis-why-does-joe-mauer-have-only-one-career-walk-off-hit/328056491/

 

Interesting note in there, is Kurt Suzuki had 9 walk-off hits in his career to that point. Again, not a knock at all on Mauer (I think we all know how good of a hitter he is), just some #FunWithNumbers stuff that points to the ideas myself and others have presented.

[ewen21]

Why are we relying so heavily on RISP?  There are plenty of situations where it is garbage time, or tack on runs, or times where we are down by six or eight runs, etc.  Let's get into why he never was much for late inning dramatics.  This is what we are talking about here.

 

Joe Mauer in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7Cmauerjo01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

 

Is it complaining to say the guy has done very little in these situations since Target Field opened?  Here are the numbers for Joe in Close and Late situations during that time:

PA--614

AB--508

H----130

2B----24

3B-----1

HR---10

RBI---61

AVG--.255

SLG--.369

 

Feel free to check my math.  I have had a long day, but honestly, I really don't see why I even needed to go this route and put the numbers out there.   We all watch the games.  Simple observation should show anyone here the guy looks for walks these situations.  Is it such a leap to say he lets tons of hittable pitches go by?  It has been such a prevailing theme that it has made me wonder why he doesn't seem to have a "happy zone" or a specific pitch that he is looking to drive.  The approach he takes makes no sense if we are talking about a player being considered for Cooperstown.  This approach is why he doesn't have many big late inning hits in close games that we can refer to.  

 

It is as simple at this for me:

Since 2011 the guy changed.  That was when he was just 28 years old and it was before the concussion.   Watching him play over the last seven seasons don't feel like I am watching greatness.  Sorry, I just don't.  Especially when we are talking about this topic right here.  I have struggled through too many Mauer at bats over the last seven years in these situations to be just blowing smoke.  The numbers don't lie and they reflect an approach that is passive to a fault when his team most needs him to HIT (not walk).

 

Here's hoping he gets some memorable hits over the course of this season.  Up until last year the dude had ONE walk off hit.  That was in 2007 against Oakland.  It took him ten seasons to get another one.  That is just odd for a hitter of his caliber.  Then again, it really isn't if you watch the guy's approach when the money is on the table.  Rather than dig in and be the man he looks to set the table (when the table is already set).

 

 

[ewen21]

Edit feature isn't showing up so I cut and past this to correct something.  Note the underlined is what I meant.

 

Is it complaining to say the guy has done very little in these situations since his contract kicked in?  Here are the numbers for Joe in Close and Late situations during that time:

 

PA--614
AB--508
H----130
2B----24
3B-----1
HR---10
RBI---61
AVG--.255
SLG--.369

 

I would also like to add this as a comparison.  Here he is in close and late situations from 2004 to 2010 (from the age of 21 to 27)

PA--582
AB--464
H----142
2B----22
3B-----2
HR---16
RBI---85
AVG--.307
SLG--.433

 

Note how much more he slugged, how many more home runs he hit, how many more runs he drove in and this was done in 32 fewer plate appearances.  No one was saying much about Joe taking too many strikes back during this period because he just WASN'T taking as many strikes.  He was on those pitches a lot more than has been since the ink dried on the contract.

 

[D. Hocking]

I can understand why he aggravates some people, but I would be hesitant to imply he got complacent because of the contract.   Other factors are he lost his Metrodome home-run sweet spot, he had health issues in 2011, and again post concussion the end of 2013 to who knows when.  There are too many other factors since his contract kicked in to do a comparison pre-contract and post-contract numbers.

 

 

[Darius]

I have never seen anyone say (seriously, anyway) that Mauer legitimately doesn't try. Or, that he milked the concussions. Nothing beyond sarcastic jokes in those regards.

 

As far as being a clutch hitter, not sure homeruns have much to do with it. You can be a clutch hitter without being a power hitter. I think about this way: If I'm down by 1 with the bases loaded in the ninth, who is most likely to get that run in from third to tie the game?

 

I'd take very few in the game over Mauer in that scenario.

[ewen21]

Guys, it isn't about the WHY.  Forget the why.  Only Joe can tell us why he takes this approach.  It is about what the approach yields for the Twins in these situations.  I am not slamming the guy, but I do bristle at the notion that what I have said can be classified as "mythology".

 

 

Edited April 20, 2018 by ewen21