Article: Myth Busting: How Has Joe Mauer Fared in the Clutch?

[Andrew Thares]

Throughout Joe Mauer’s tenure as a Minnesota Twin there have been a lot of narratives, true or not, about him: Not living up to his big contract, his lack of effort to become more of a power hitter, over playing his concussion issues, not being a strong leader in the clubhouse. Another one that I have been hearing is Twins fans’ conception that Joe is not a good hitter in the clutch.I’m not really sure where this notion was born from, but it seems to be something that I've heard more and more of lately. So, I guess the question to ask is has Joe Mauer been a good performer in clutch? Let’s find out.

 

As we all know, baseball is a game built on situations. With every new batter, and even every new pitch, the situation of the game changes. Some situations have a high impact on the outcome of the game, while others don’t really have much significance to the game’s fate.

 

Here's how Joe's splits break down by leverage over his 15-year career.

Download attachment: MauerSheet.png

You many have noticed the stat referred to as tOPS+ and thought to yourself "what in the world is that?" Well, simply put, tOPS+ is a metric developed by our friends at Baseball Reference that is used to measure how well a player preformed in a certain situation relative to their overall performance. A tOPS+ of 100 means that the player had the same OPS in that specific situation as they have overall, while a 105 tOPS+ means their OPS was 5% better in that situation, and vise versa for a tOPS+ of 95.

 

As we can see from the chart, Joe Mauer has excelled over his career in medium leverage situations. However, to be clutch it is important to look at how Joe preformed in high leverage spots.

 

Overall, Joe has a .821 OPS in high-leverage situations, which is 3% lower than his career .835 OPS. Having a tOPS+ of less than 100 in high leverage situations is expected for most hitters, however, as these plate appearances often come late in games against the opposing team’s best relief pitchers. Given that, Mauer’s career .821 OPS in high-leverage situations is actually pretty good.

 

Joe Mauer has also excelled when the Twins have needed him to drive in runs with two outs in the inning. In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position.

Over at Fangraphs, they have their own way of calculating how clutch a player has been in their career, with a stat that they refer to simply as Clutch. If you want to read more about how this stat is formulated you can do so here.

 

In the history of the Minnesota Twins, there have been 164 hitters who have had at least 300 plate appearances as a member of the organization, and of those 164, Joe Mauer ranks as the ninth most clutch player.

 

Unsurprisingly, Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek rank as the most and second most clutch players in Twins history. While Torii Hunter, Tom Brunansky and Roy Smalley all ranked as the three least clutch players in Twins history.

 

If there is one area that Joe hasn’t been as clutch it has been in the postseason, where he has a modest .641 OPS. While that isn’t a terrible number, it surely doesn’t live up to the expectations that we have for Joe. However, it is hard to put much weight into this number given that it is over just 11 career postseason games, and just one good game can bring those numbers from a little below average to pretty good.

 

In all, I think it is safe to say the Joe Mauer has indeed been a clutch player throughout his career with the Twins, though it would be nice to see him bring up his postseason numbers. Hopefully, with this talented Twins team he will get a shot this year, or potentially in future years if he chooses to return to the Twins after this season.

 

Click here to view the article

[Dantes929]

How about this.    2006, 2008, and 2009 were three of the tightest races in the history of the sport with a pennant won on the last day in 2006 and games 163 in 08 and 09.   In the heat of those races Mauer's final month OPS was .956. .904 and .958.    

[Steve Lein]

Interesting spin on this topic, which is one I researched myself about 3 years ago, though in a different way.

Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't define Mauer as "clutch," but I would call him "not as clutch as you'd expect for a hitter of his caliber."

My research was based on what I called "RBI percentage."

Pretty simple: how many guys had he driven in divided by how many possible runners had he had to drive in (including himself with a HR).

I compared him to the primary 1B #3 hitter of every team at the time from the prior season and the results for him were decidedly... (drum roll) ... below average.

If I remember correctly he barely slotted in front of Adam Dunn, who barely hit above the Mendoza line that year.

Easy to explain, and also correlates easy to the idea and data you present here: Mauer just doesn't alter his approach in those situations. He'll take your walk and leave it up to the next guy.

I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch.

Granted, that doesn't always happen. But it's my observation and my data and yours, whether you believe it or not, says so (in my opinion).

Good stuff!

 

Edit: I found my data, it wasn't 1B-man, it was the primary #3 hitter for each team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting spin on this topic, which is one I researched myself about 3 years ago, though in a different way.

Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't define Mauer as "clutch," but I would call him "not as clutch as you'd expect for a hitter of his caliber."

My research was based on what I called "RBI percentage."

Pretty simple: how many guys had he driven in divided by how many possible runners had he had to drive in (including himself with a HR).

I compared him to the primary 1B of every team at the time from the prior season and the results for him were decidedly... (drum roll) ... below average.

If I remember correctly he barely slotted in front of Adam Dunn, who barely hit above the Mendoza line that year.

Easy to explain, and also correlates easy to the idea and data you present here: Mauer just doesn't alter his approach in those situations. He'll take your walk and leave it up to the next guy.

I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch.

Granted, that doesn't always happen. But it's my observation and my data and yours, whether you believe it or not, says so (in my opinion).

Good stuff!

I will concede that Mauer isn't "clutch" in the sense that he'll take that walk all day long if the pitcher gives it to him.

 

But is it really fair to compare him to the rest of first basemen when RBI are so homerun-driven and Mauer doesn't hit homeruns?

 

We all love home runs but I thought one of the sticking points of the Moneyball era was "don't get out". I'm not dogging home runs but if you gave me a choice of Wade Boggs or Jim Rice, I'd choose the former.

[Matthew Lenz]

Nice job, Andrew.  I think this is an unfair criticism of Mauer.

 

I would be interested to see his BA/OBP/SLG in the 7th - 9th inning, 3 run or less game, with runners in scoring position.  I know that anytime you have RISP or RISP w/ 2 outs it takes some clutch factor to get those guys in, but that's very different in the 1st inning than in the 9th inning with the game truly on the line.  I also wonder how he fares as compared to other players in the MLB (2004-curent), rather than historically compared to players in the Twins organization.

 

Also, his postseason OPS is awful...we have to be honest about that.  Sometimes I think the irrational "hate" that Mauer gets is defended by irrational "love".

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch.

This. This is correct.

[Number3]

The fact that this thread was deemed appropriate speaks for itself. The announcer on the PR game last night said it all about Mauer. (paraphrase) "To speed the game up just give Mauer 2 strikes when he steps into the batters box". This is clearly not a hitter whose primary goal is to make solid contact with the baseball. Mauer is simply not an aggressive hitter. He works the count, plays the stats (and the umpire), and is more than happy with a flare to left or, even better, a free pass. So be it. Looks good on paper. Does not pass the eye test on the field.

[Andrew Thares]

 

Nice job, Andrew.  I think this is an unfair criticism of Mauer.

 

I would be interested to see his BA/OBP/SLG in the 7th - 9th inning, 3 run or less game, with runners in scoring position.  I know that anytime you have RISP or RISP w/ 2 outs it takes some clutch factor to get those guys in, but that's very different in the 1st inning than in the 9th inning with the game truly on the line. 

Literally what you described here are the high leverage situations that I pointed out in the article. So to answer your question he has a .287/.413/.408 slash line in those situations.

[USAFChief]

This. This is correct.

We saw it last night. Mauer takes a get-me-over cutter on a 2-0 count without so much as a flinch. Pitch could not have been more center cut. With a runner on base, in a close game.

 

He ends up walking, and leaves it up to Sano, against a RH pitcher like Kluber, to get the job done.

 

How do you suppose that ended up?

 

I don't think that's good baseball. I think a "good hitter" has to be attacking that 2-0 pitch. I don't give a darn if his "clutch" OBP went up.

 

If that was an isolated incidence, ok. It wasnt.

[Steve Lein]

 

I will concede that Mauer isn't "clutch" in the sense that he'll take that walk all day long if the pitcher gives it to him.

 

But is it really fair to compare him to the rest of first basemen when RBI are so homerun-driven and Mauer doesn't hit homeruns?

 

We all love home runs but I thought one of the sticking points of the Moneyball era was "don't get out". I'm not dogging home runs but if you gave me a choice of Wade Boggs or Jim Rice, I'd choose the former.

 

I actually found my data, I recalled incorrectly.

 

It was a comparison to the primary #3 hitter of each team

[Dantes929]

He has always passed the eye test with me.   I have always considered him to be a table setter but he was an elite table setter.    Leaving it to the next guy wasn't such a bad option when you added a guy on base for Morneau, Thome and Cuddyer.    With the bad teams who is going to pitch to Mauer with the game on the line when Doumit and Plouffe are your next  batters?   Do the clutch stats contemplate intentional and semi intentional walks?    

We have had this conversation before.   In the midst of one of these conversations in years back I kept track of a 3 game set.   It was probably serendipity but there were 6 runs scored where he advanced the runner to 2nd or 3rd either through a walk, single or double and that runner scored either from 2nd with a base hit or from third with a sac fly or ground out.    6 runs where Mauer was a major factor in 3 close games but his stat sheet (what was referred to earlier as looking good on paper) had no runs scored and no RBI for Mauer.    I am guessing he has always been pretty high in the category of runs produced without getting credit for RBI or run scored.  Clutch or otherwise.     Batters behind him have always benefited.  Is Morneau MVP without Mauer's .347 BA and .429 OBP.?   Is he runner up for MVP without Mauer's .328 ave and .413 OBP?

As far as approach, several years ago I noted that Mauer and Delmon Young had almost the exact same splits for various counts, meaning the various ways you can be even, behind and ahead in the count.   What separated a guy we are sorry we traded for and a guy some think has a strong case for HOF is that by being patient Mauer found himself in the favorable counts way more often than did Young despite the general opinion that Mauer always starts the count 0-2.   I wish he would swing at the 1st pitch a little more often just to keep the pitchers honest but his formula works.  He is actually not a great hitter when behind in the count.   He is at .255 when behind, .316 when even in the count and .360 when ahead in the count in his career and he has been ahead in the count way more often than behind in the count.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

Literally what you described here are the high leverage situations that I pointed out in the article. So to answer your question he has a .287/.413/.408 slash line in those situations.

Not trying to open a can of worms here or attack your work.

 

Unless I am missing it, you reference the phrases "high leverage", "medium leverage", and "low leverage" without ever defining what those actually mean.  I know those definitions aren't exactly static, but some general explanation of what those means could be helpful.

 

I interpreted this statement, "In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position", as you further proving he is clutch because he hits well with RISP + 2 outs.  I wouldn't call it "clutch" if that happens in the first inning, but would might call it "clutch" if that happens in the 9th inning depending on the situation.

 

It's not "clutch" if the game is out of reach in either direction.

It is "clutch"if that happens in the 9th inning, we are losing, and he ties the game. 

It's even "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are tied, and it wins the game. 

It's EVEN "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are losing, and and it wins the game.

 

I guess my point is what defines "clutch"?  What defines low leverage v. medium leverage v. high leverage?

[bighat]

Mauer's postseason "clutch numbers" would be much higher if the umps didn't steal that huge double from him in New York many years ago.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Not trying to open a can of worms here or attack your work.

 

Unless I am missing it, you reference the phrases "high leverage", "medium leverage", and "low leverage" without ever defining what those actually mean.  I know those definitions aren't exactly static, but some general explanation of what those means could be helpful.

 

I interpreted this statement, "In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position", as you further proving he is clutch because he hits well with RISP + 2 outs.  I wouldn't call it "clutch" if that happens in the first inning, but would might call it "clutch" if that happens in the 9th inning depending on the situation.

 

It's not "clutch" if the game is out of reach in either direction.

It is "clutch"if that happens in the 9th inning, we are losing, and he ties the game. 

It's even "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are tied, and it wins the game. 

It's EVEN "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are losing, and and it wins the game.

 

I guess my point is what defines "clutch"?  What defines low leverage v. medium leverage v. high leverage?

The leverage stuff is based on hard numbers. Here's some more info from B-Ref on win expectancy and leverage index. I believe they define a high-leverage situation as anytime the leverage index is 1.5 or higher.

 

Only 19.2 percent of Mauer's career plate appearances fall into that high leverage bucket, so it's not like they're casting a very wide net.

[ThejacKmp]

 

We saw it last night. Mauer takes a get-me-over cutter on a 2-0 count without so much as a flinch. Pitch could not have been more center cut. With a runner on base, in a close game.

He ends up walking, and leaves it up to Sano, against a RH pitcher like Kluber, to get the job done.

How do you suppose that ended up?

I don't think that's good baseball. I think a "good hitter" has to be attacking that 2-0 pitch. I don't give a darn if his "clutch" OBP went up.

If that was an isolated incidence, ok. It wasnt.

 

In a 5-1 game in late innings against a top pitcher, I absolutely want him to take a walk. Every statistical model you would look at would say the same thing. The way you can tell that is that Cleveland didn't intentionally walk Mauer when it was 2-0. They wanted him to swing.

 

Getting Sano up to bring the game within a run is 100% the right call. If he swung away on 2-0 and grounded out, you'd be wasting the opportunity. Putting more guys on base late it always a good idea. If the guy after Mauer doesn't get it done, that's not Mauer's fault.

 

Sometimes the Mauer hate seems to be just for the sake of complaining. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Interesting spin on this topic, which is one I researched myself about 3 years ago, though in a different way.

Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't define Mauer as "clutch," but I would call him "not as clutch as you'd expect for a hitter of his caliber."

My research was based on what I called "RBI percentage."

Pretty simple: how many guys had he driven in divided by how many possible runners had he had to drive in (including himself with a HR).

I compared him to the primary 1B #3 hitter of every team at the time from the prior season and the results for him were decidedly... (drum roll) ... below average.

If I remember correctly he barely slotted in front of Adam Dunn, who barely hit above the Mendoza line that year.

Easy to explain, and also correlates easy to the idea and data you present here: Mauer just doesn't alter his approach in those situations. He'll take your walk and leave it up to the next guy.

I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch.

Granted, that doesn't always happen. But it's my observation and my data and yours, whether you believe it or not, says so (in my opinion).

Good stuff!

 

Edit: I found my data, it wasn't 1B-man, it was the primary #3 hitter for each team.

 

This is an interesting way to look at things but I think it's flawed.

 

There are two positive outcomes in a late-inning situation, not one. Getting the run in is obviously ideal. But so is "not making an out". Your research didn't take this second positive outcome into consideration.

 

If a batter doesn't make an out, he gives the hitters after him a chance to hit - with a chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base. Since Mauer generally hits #2 or #3, that's a pretty good hitter after him (you could make an argument that a guy hitting 7th should swing away more since the guy after him is likely weaker). He should get some credit for the success of guys who hit after him.

 

I don't want Mauer to change his approach. It works. It predicates his overall success. If he's switching approaches, who can say that he's able to continue his typical success? Hitting is about repetition. Mauer seeing pitches and having good at-bats is a great thing for young hitters - they get to see the pitcher and they get to see what professional hitting is like.

 

P.S. I see people ragging on Eddie Rosario for swinging out of his shoes trying to win games, striking out easily. Same thing with Buxton and Torii back in the day. And yet we rag on Joe for consistently having good at bats. Think about it. When's the last time you saw Joe Mauer have a bad at-bat? I can't think of one. That's something that should be celebrated, not criticized. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

We saw it last night. Mauer takes a get-me-over cutter on a 2-0 count without so much as a flinch. Pitch could not have been more center cut. With a runner on base, in a close game.

He ends up walking, and leaves it up to Sano, against a RH pitcher like Kluber, to get the job done.

How do you suppose that ended up?

I don't think that's good baseball. I think a "good hitter" has to be attacking that 2-0 pitch. I don't give a darn if his "clutch" OBP went up.

If that was an isolated incidence, ok. It wasnt.

 

Also, Sano was facing left-hander Andrew Miller, not right-hander Corey Kluber. So by taking the walk he got the platoon advantage working for the Twins.

 

This criticism makes no sense. The walk was absolutely an ideal outcome.

[USAFChief]

 

In a 5-1 game in late innings against a top pitcher, I absolutely want him to take a walk. Every statistical model you would look at would say the same thing. The way you can tell that is that Cleveland didn't intentionally walk Mauer when it was 2-0. They wanted him to swing.

 

Getting Sano up to bring the game within a run is 100% the right call. If he swung away on 2-0 and grounded out, you'd be wasting the opportunity. Putting more guys on base late it always a good idea. If the guy after Mauer doesn't get it done, that's not Mauer's fault.

 

Sometimes the Mauer hate seems to be just for the sake of complaining. 

The score was 0-0 in the bottom of the 3rd. Grossman on base. Kluber on the mound.

 

And for the record, I don't hate Mauer.

 

I just don't think he's nearly as valuable as he gets credit for around here. And I personally don't think his approach to hitting is the most effective way to play baseball.

 

The way you can tell that is, really good hitters don't take 2-0 pitches in situations that call for an extra base hit. And that situation SCREAMED for sitting on a pitch and trying to make the game 2-0. 

 

Again...if this was an isolated incident, I wouldn't have this opinion. But it's not. 

[Andrew Thares]

 

Not trying to open a can of worms here or attack your work.

 

Unless I am missing it, you reference the phrases "high leverage", "medium leverage", and "low leverage" without ever defining what those actually mean.  I know those definitions aren't exactly static, but some general explanation of what those means could be helpful.

 

I interpreted this statement, "In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position", as you further proving he is clutch because he hits well with RISP + 2 outs.  I wouldn't call it "clutch" if that happens in the first inning, but would might call it "clutch" if that happens in the 9th inning depending on the situation.

 

It's not "clutch" if the game is out of reach in either direction.

It is "clutch"if that happens in the 9th inning, we are losing, and he ties the game. 

It's even "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are tied, and it wins the game. 

It's EVEN "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are losing, and and it wins the game.

 

I guess my point is what defines "clutch"?  What defines low leverage v. medium leverage v. high leverage?

It mostly depends on how much the game is impacted from a win probability prospective. Obviously there are more volatile changes in win probability late in close games, than there are early in games. So those would be defined as high leverage situations.

 

Something like 2nd and 3rd with 1 out in a 2 run game in the 2nd might be defined as a medium leverage situation. Still could be defined as a big moment, but won't have as drastic impact as it would late in the game.

 

While things like Joe batting with 1 out and no one on in the top of the first might be a low leverage situation, since whatever he does (even if its a home run) wont have too big of an impact on the result of the game.

[Andrew Thares]

 

The score was 0-0 in the bottom of the 3rd. Grossman on base. Kluber on the mound.

 

And for the record, I don't hate Mauer.

 

I just don't think he's nearly as valuable as he gets credit for around here. And I personally don't think his approach to hitting is the most effective way to play baseball.

 

The way you can tell that is, really good hitters don't take 2-0 pitches in situations that call for an extra base hit. And that situation SCREAMED for sitting on a pitch and trying to make the game 2-0. 

 

Again...if this was an isolated incident, I wouldn't have this opinion. But it's not. 

Every situation calls for and extra base hit, but they are very hard to do and can't just be created out of thin air. Often times as a hitter you have to take what is given to you, and against a pitcher like Corey Kluber, extra base hits are very rarely given to you.

[USAFChief]

 

Every situation calls for and extra base hit, but they are very hard to do and can't just be created out of thin air. Often times as a hitter you have to take what is given to you, and against a pitcher like Corey Kluber, extra base hits are very rarely given to you.

Concur.

 

Which is why it's important to attempt to take advantage of situations where you have a better than ordinary chance.

 

Mauer--regarded as a "great hitter" by many here--bats left handed and has a fairly predictable pitch coming at 2-0, against a tough RH hitter. He takes the pitch. Ultimately, he leaves it to Sano, a strikeout prone RH hitter who was, I believe, something like 1 for 20 against Kluber coming into the game, to drive in the run(s).

 

Very few "great" hitters take that pitch in that situation. For a good reason. It's a bad approach.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

The score was 0-0 in the bottom of the 3rd. Grossman on base. Kluber on the mound.

 

And for the record, I don't hate Mauer.

 

I just don't think he's nearly as valuable as he gets credit for around here. And I personally don't think his approach to hitting is the most effective way to play baseball.

 

The way you can tell that is, really good hitters don't take 2-0 pitches in situations that call for an extra base hit. And that situation SCREAMED for sitting on a pitch and trying to make the game 2-0. 

 

Again...if this was an isolated incident, I wouldn't have this opinion. But it's not. 

 

Okay. In that situation, there was a guy on first with two outs. Every model of scoring runs would say that you are better off getting a walk and getting that guy into scoring position. Grossman isn't particularly fast so most doubles don't score him. Mauer isn't a homerun hitter, that isn't his game. Sano already hit a single off of Kluber earlier in the game so he's not helpless up there.

 

You also don't know that Mauer wasn't sitting there looking for something. He might have been sitting on a breaking ball or a changeup. He may have been looking for something on the outside half and it was inside half.

 

P.S. "Mauer hate" means casting shade Mauer's way, not that you actually hate him. These kids and their lingo.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Concur.

 

Which is why it's important to attempt to take advantage of situations where you have a better than ordinary chance.

 

Mauer--regarded as a "great hitter" by many here--bats left handed and has a fairly predictable pitch coming at 2-0, against a tough RH hitter. He takes the pitch. Ultimately, he leaves it to Sano, a strikeout prone RH hitter who was, I believe, something like 1 for 20 against Kluber coming into the game, to drive in the run(s).

 

Very few "great" hitters take that pitch in that situation. For a good reason. It's a bad approach.

 

Joey Votto takes that pitch. Is he not a great hitter? 

 

Your definition of great hitter is pretty narrow. Mauer is pretty widely considered to be a great hitter. Not a great power bat but a great hitter. Never has bad at-bats, always goes up there with a plan.

[Dantes929]

 

The score was 0-0 in the bottom of the 3rd. Grossman on base. Kluber on the mound.

 

And for the record, I don't hate Mauer.

 

I just don't think he's nearly as valuable as he gets credit for around here. And I personally don't think his approach to hitting is the most effective way to play baseball.

 

The way you can tell that is, really good hitters don't take 2-0 pitches in situations that call for an extra base hit. And that situation SCREAMED for sitting on a pitch and trying to make the game 2-0. 

 

Again...if this was an isolated incident, I wouldn't have this opinion. But it's not. 

In that situation it is probably only a home run that will score Grossman and who is more likely to hit a home run, Mauer or Sano?   Sano is way more likely to and it would be a three run homer vs a less likely two run homer from Mauer in the third inning  Even given the 2-0 count it is pretty much a push. Plus the best odds of scoring a run is having Grossman on 2nd because Sano is still way more likely to get a single or double than either is of hitting a home run.    The only argument for Mauer swinging away is your belief that somehow Mauer is more likely to hit a home run than Sano is to get a hit of any kind.  Its playing the odds because the eye test lies.       Do you give a damn about Mauer's clutch OBP when it has contributed to rallies and close wins because those are not isolated instances either.   He's Wade Boggs.   He's not Mike Schmidt.    Do you value him for being like Boggs (HOFer) or do you find him wanting because he's not Mike Schmidt (also HOFer)?    

[USAFChief]

 

In that situation it is probably only a home run that will score Grossman and who is more likely to hit a home run, Mauer or Sano?   Sano is way more likely to and it would be a three run homer vs a less likely two run homer from Mauer in the third inning  Even given the 2-0 count it is pretty much a push. Plus the best odds of scoring a run is having Grossman on 2nd because Sano is still way more likely to get a single or double than either is of hitting a home run.    The only argument for Mauer swinging away is your belief that somehow Mauer is more likely to hit a home run than Sano is to get a hit of any kind.  Its playing the odds because the eye test lies.       Do you give a damn about Mauer's clutch OBP when it has contributed to rallies and close wins because those are not isolated instances either.   He's Wade Boggs.   He's not Mike Schmidt.    Do you value him for being like Boggs (HOFer) or do you find him wanting because he's not Mike Schmidt (also HOFer)?    

Wade Boggs doesn't take that 2-0 pitch.

 

But you're right about one thing...I don't give a damn about "clutch OBP." 

 

And BTW since teams abandon right field against Mauer, even a double to right scores Grossman, with two out, easily.

[Steve Lein]

 

If a batter doesn't make an out, he gives the hitters after him a chance to hit - with a chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base. Since Mauer generally hits #2 or #3, that's a pretty good hitter after him (you could make an argument that a guy hitting 7th should swing away more since the guy after him is likely weaker). He should get some credit for the success of guys who hit after him.

 

Fun part about evaluating your idea here, is you can actually throw some Run Expectancy stuff at it, and your "chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base" comment is, well, not actually true.

 

Straight from Tom Tango, and tables for "the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning, from each base/out state":

 

With 2-outs and a runner on 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.216.

 

With 2-outs and runners on 1B and 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.222.

 

Basically, it doesn't affect that chance to score runs at all.

 

When you take into account Mauer's hitting ability, individually, to that situation you're not going to convince me passing it on to the next guy is the better option. That's what my "I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch" comment gets at.

Edited April 18, 2018 by Steve Lein

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fun part about evaluating your idea here, is you can actually throw some Run Expectancy stuff at this idea, and your "chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base" comment is, well, not actually true.

 

Straight from Tom Tango, and tables for "the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning, from each base/out state":

 

With 2-outs and a runner on 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.216.

 

With 2-outs and runners on 1B and 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.222.

 

Basically, it doesn't affect that chance to score runs at all.

That's scoring *A* run, meaning 1 single run. What about the chances for scoring multiple runs? That's probably the important one, being that we were down 4 runs in 7th inning at the time.

 

Although I'm not ragging on Mauer here. He was facing LHP Andrew Miller, a walk to bring up RHB Sano is probably just fine.

[USAFChief]

 

That's scoring *A* run, meaning 1 single run. What about the chances for scoring multiple runs? That's probably the important one, being that we were down 4 runs in 7th inning at the time.

 

Although I'm not ragging on Mauer here. He was facing LHP Andrew Miller, a walk to bring up RHB Sano is probably just fine.

The AB in question is the bottom of the 3d, vs Kluber.

 

Down 5-1, against Miller, working a walk is absolutely the right approach.

 

And for the record, IMO "run expectancy tables" are a pretty bad way to manage a baseball game.   Very few individual situations are exactly the same as the aggregate of thousands of situations.

 

Mike Trout against Taylor Rogers isn't the same as Adrianza vs Andrew Miller. But a run expectancy table treats them both the same.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Fun part about evaluating your idea here, is you can actually throw some Run Expectancy stuff at it, and your "chance to score even more runs since more guys are on base" comment is, well, not actually true.

 

Straight from Tom Tango, and tables for "the chance that a run will score at some point in the inning, from each base/out state":

 

With 2-outs and a runner on 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.216.

 

With 2-outs and runners on 1B and 2B, chance to score a run is: 0.222.

 

Basically, it doesn't affect that chance to score runs at all.

 

When you take into account Mauer's hitting ability, individually, to that situation you're not going to convince me passing it on to the next guy is the better option. That's what my "I'll always argue I want him to be more aggressive in "clutch" situations. He's too good of a hitter to leave it to the next guy if he gets a hittable pitch" comment gets at.

 

Yeah but what's your chance to score multiple runs? Your scenario works if we're talking tie ballgame bottom of ninth and need to score A RUN but we're not. We're talking high leverage situations - late in a close game. That could be Twins up 5-4 or Twins down 5-3. It could be the seventh or it could be the 10th. There could be one out or two outs.

 

Getting multiple runs makes you more likely to win and multiple base runners make those runs more likely to score. I find it hard to believe that multiple runs is the same with those two situations.

 

P.S. "you're not going to convince me" is a bad way to contribute to a discussion. It ends the inquisitive process and makes it about forcing other people to agree with you.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The AB in question is the bottom of the 3d, vs Kluber.

Actually there were 2 AB in question. The 3rd inning is the one you brought up, but the 7th inning is what Steve was quoting run expectancy for.