Article: Cooperstown Case: Should Joe Mauer Make the Hall of Fame?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/27398-regarding-and-re-evaluating-mauer-yet-again/page-3

 

As we discussed before the correlation between his hard hit rate and average of ball in play is close to poor, so I'm don't think it supports his drop in production being related to his concussion.

But we established there was a moderate correlation... which doesn't tackle the rest of the problem, that Mauer struck out more in 2014 than he had in any previous season while also hitting the ball more softly than any point in his career.

 

BABIP and hard hit is a correlative argument but it still doesn't explain why Joe missed the ball so often and so rarely squared up.

 

And, yes, his 2013 season saw an increase in strikeouts... but the rest of his stats, even the underlying ones, stayed strong. He posted one of the highest OPS seasons of his career with that strikeout rate because those underlying stats stayed at his career norms (his BABIP was a bit high but only .040 over his career rate, nothing even close to explaining a .150 OPS drop).

 

So what changed? People who argue the concussion wasn't the most significant impact on his career throw out "shifts" and "harder-throwing pitchers" but that doesn't pass the smell test. It's not as if shifts and harder-throwing pitchers showed up overnight. Those are gradual game changes not implemented by every team to this day, yet it's used as a reason why Mauer went from great to pedestrian in ten months.

[DrNeau]

No HOF for Mauer... just like Don Mattingly, Mark Grace, and Wally Joyner. 

[KGB]

 

But we established there was a moderate correlation... which doesn't tackle the rest of the problem, that Mauer struck out more in 2014 than he had in any previous season while also hitting the ball more softly than any point in his career.

 

BABIP and hard hit is a correlative argument but it still doesn't explain why Joe missed the ball so often and so rarely squared up.

 

And, yes, his 2013 season saw an increase in strikeouts... but the rest of his stats, even the underlying ones, stayed strong. He posted one of the highest OPS seasons of his career with that strikeout rate because those underlying stats stayed at his career norms (his BABIP was a bit high but only .040 over his career rate, nothing even close to explaining a .150 OPS drop).

 

So what changed? People who argue the concussion wasn't the most significant impact on his career throw out "shifts" and "harder-throwing pitchers" but that doesn't pass the smell test. It's not as if shifts and harder-throwing pitchers showed up overnight. Those are gradual game changes not implemented by every team to this day, yet it's used as a reason why Mauer went from great to pedestrian in ten months.

At .437 it falls in the moderate range, but closing out on the weak rating.

 

.00-.19 “very weak”
.20-.39 “weak”
.40-.59 “moderate”

 

And the "great to pedestrian in ten months" is very misleading when you actually look at his BABIP during those 2 years.  He had a 10 year average BABIP of .340 but jumped up to .383 in 2013.  I think any other player, this board would be all over with prediction about his upcoming drop in production due to going back to is norm. In 2014, that is exactly what he did with a BABIP of .340, but somehow the reasoning is it has to be related to his concussion. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

At .437 it falls in the moderate range, but closing out on the weak rating.

 

.00-.19 “very weak”
.20-.39 “weak”
.40-.59 “moderate”

 

And the "great to pedestrian in ten months" is very misleading when you actually look at his BABIP during those 2 years.  He had a 10 year average BABIP of .340 but jumped up to .383 in 2013.  I think any other player, this board would be all over with prediction about his upcoming drop in production due to going back to is norm. In 2014, that is exactly what he did with a BABIP of .340, but somehow the reasoning is it has to be related to his concussion. 

Except your .040 BABIP doesn't explain the .150 OPS drop from 2013 to 2014.

 

Using Joe's 2013 season, normalizing his BABIP from .380 to .340 is a difference of only 15 hits over the course of a season.

 

But to get his OPS to drop 150 points, you need to remove 25 doubles from his 2013 season. That's 50 bases removed to see a 150 point drop in OPS. Joe's 2013 season would have gone from 35 doubles all the way down to just 10. Not only do you need more than 15 hits to get a drop that large, you need every one of those hits to count for extra bases, which we know just isn't a reality in the game.

 

Your BABIP argument doesn't add up. A .040 swing in BABIP just isn't that much and, sure, it'll take a decent chunk out of a player's OPS season-over-season but nothing even close to 150 points. Something more like .075 of OPS at the upper end of the spectrum.

[KGB]

 

Except your .040 BABIP doesn't explain the .150 OPS drop from 2013 to 2014.

 

Using Joe's 2013 season, normalizing his BABIP from .380 to .340 is a difference of only 15 hits over the course of a season.

 

But to get his OPS to drop 150 points, you need to remove 25 doubles from his 2013 season. That's 50 bases removed to see a 150 point drop in OPS. Joe's 2013 season would have gone from 35 doubles all the way down to just 10. Not only do you need more than 15 hits to get a drop that large, you need every one of those hits to count for extra bases, which we know just isn't a reality in the game.

 

Your BABIP argument doesn't add up. A .040 swing in BABIP just isn't that much and, sure, it'll take a decent chunk out of a player's OPS season-over-season but nothing even close to 150 points. Something more like .075 of OPS at the upper end of the spectrum.

And a 15 hit difference is 30 points on his batting average.  Here's a breakdown of the average drop from 2013 to 2014:

 

2013                     .324

2014                     .277

                             ------

Drop                      .047

 

change due to BABIP                   .030

change due to HR drop                .015

increased strike outs                    .002

                                                     --------

Total                                              .047

 

The BABIP and K's are reduction is clearly not concussion related.  If you want to home run reduction or any reduction in slugging percentage is concussion related, I'm fine with that, but you really can't say that was a "great to pedestrian in ten months" drop since his home run total was always pretty pedestrian.

[gocgo]

Hmmm.  Based on current numbers, tough to say.  5 more years of playing puts him around 650 more hits if he keeps hitting for his current average and plays 1B full time. 

 

However, there is one more factor that hasn't been discussed - likability.  It's easy to vote for a guy that's humble, and easy to like vs.....oh, say...Gary Sheffield?

[kab21]

 

Hmmm.  Based on current numbers, tough to say.  5 more years of playing puts him around 650 more hits if he keeps hitting for his current average and plays 1B full time. 

 

However, there is one more factor that hasn't been discussed - likability.  It's easy to vote for a guy that's humble, and easy to like vs.....oh, say...Gary Sheffield?

The other thing about this is if he is still considered a catcher on the ballot and by the voters. Guys like Sheffield, Grace, McGriff get ignored because they are a few of many 1B/DH or corner OF'ers that hit well. I still consider him a catcher.

Mauer is 4th in OPS for catchers between 2000-now. Piazza, Posada and Posey are the only catchers ahead of him. I am partial to the argument that at least a few players of each generation should be inducted. Piazza and IRod were closing their careers  as Mauer was getting started.

 

Besides Posey what other catchers would be considered HOF'ers that were Mauer's contemporaries? Posada (not a bad case)? VMart? McCann?

 

I think when compared versus other catchers that played during his career it shows that he wasn't just 'very good'.

[gocgo]

 

The other thing about this is if he is still considered a catcher on the ballot and by the voters. Guys like Sheffield, Grace, McGriff get ignored because they are a few of many 1B/DH or corner OF'ers that hit well. I still consider him a catcher.

Mauer is 4th in OPS for catchers between 2000-now. Piazza, Posada and Posey are the only catchers ahead of him. I am partial to the argument that at least a few players of each generation should be inducted. Piazza and IRod were closing their careers  as Mauer was getting started.

 

Besides Posey what other catchers would be considered HOF'ers that were Mauer's contemporaries? Posada (not a bad case)? VMart? McCann?

 

I think when compared versus other catchers that played during his career it shows that he wasn't just 'very good'.

Yadi Molina.  Best defensive catcher in baseball for like 15 years.  Batted .284 which isn't bad for a great defensive catcher.

Edited April 19, 2018 by gocgo

[kab21]

 

Yadi Molina.  Best defensive catcher in baseball for like 15 years.  Batted .284 which isn't bad for a great defensive catcher.

Good addition. That makes 3 including Joe. I think that is a decent minimum for a position over a 10-15 year span.