Article: Joe Mauer's Future

[Mr. Brooks]

Joe Mauer was a catcher through 2013. In every one of those years he had the wear and tear of catching. It is hard to imagine that he is close to matching his plate appearance in seasons since. It can’t even be close.

 

It would not make sense to split out any DH/PH/1B at bats from his seasons as a catcher but maybe that was what was done. He was still catching a lot of games in those years which would be tough on the body,

It's not about wear and tear (that's an obviously legitimate, but separate discussion.), it's about positional value. In which case it wouldn't make sense to compare his 1B/DH numbers during those years to historical catchers, as the team still had to employ a catcher on those days.

[jorgenswest]

It's not about wear and tear (that's an obviously legitimate, but separate discussion.), it's about positional value. In which case it wouldn't make sense to compare his 1B/DH numbers during those years to historical catchers, as the team still had to employ a catcher on those days.

Are you arguing this is how you expect HOF voters to look at his career or is this how you personally look at his career?

 

I have to believe most voters will see him as a catcher for those 10 years and understand the significance. There will always be critics but a solid majority will get him elected to the HOF.

[ThejacKmp]

None of this has any bearing on his perceived future value. That's what what will drive contract negotiations wherever he lands.

Um, no one said it did? I a!so never made the argument he was in the Wizard of Oz.

[ThejacKmp]

You'd rather see the Twins re-sign Mauer than win a World Series?   If so, you are Mauer fan and not a Twins' fan.

Because those are the only two options

[Mr. Brooks]

Are you arguing this is how you expect HOF voters to look at his career or is this how you personally look at his career?

 

I have to believe most voters will see him as a catcher for those 10 years and understand the significance. There will always be critics but a solid majority will get him elected to the HOF.

I'm saying that when they look at his numbers, they will take into account all of the following: the numbers he put up as a catcher, the numbers he put up post catching, and the numbers he was able to add while playing DH during his catching days, something that relevant historical catchers didn't have the opportunity to do.

 

If DH'ing during his catching career didn't help limit wear and tear over the course of a season, the Twins wouldn't have put him at DH.

 

The voters will look at all available information, I don't see why they'd choose to ignore any of it.

[D. Hocking]

I think he if gets a few more solid years at 1B it will help him, not necessarily because the numbers will HOF worthy, but it will help show that his subpar seasons with the big drop-off were due to the concussions.  It also adds to the story of someone who always was at the top of his game sticking with it and playing through some bad seasons and having a bit of a come-back.

[jorgenswest]

I

I'm saying that when they look at his numbers, they will take into account all of the following: the numbers he put up as a catcher, the numbers he put up post catching, and the numbers he was able to add while playing DH during his catching days, something that relevant historical catchers didn't have the opportunity to do.

If DH'ing during his catching career didn't help limit wear and tear over the course of a season, the Twins wouldn't have put him at DH.

The voters will look at all available information, I don't see why they'd choose to ignore any of it.

I think they will treat him like Ernie Banks who is in as a SS though he only had 45% of his PA as a SS and more as a 1B. He was a great SS through age 30 winning both his MVPs. 80% of his WAR came through age 30. Banks was a HOF SS and mostly a below average 1B the second half of his career. I have no doubt that Joe Mauer will be in the HOF.

[specialiststeve]

Joe has been a great asset to the Twin's for a long time. His value clearly decreased when he had to go to first for health reasons. That being said he can clearly still rake. He is a table setter and plays a very good 1B defensively. He and the Twin's will work something out to bring him back at a reduced rate.

 

He has made his cash and this will be to continue his legacy.

 

Arguing about his stats is fairly silly He is/was a great hitter with limited power.... period.

 

A 2 year deal for anywhere from 8-12 mill per year would be decent for both sides while we figure out our long-term plan there. Don't have to overthink this one ...

[Mr. Brooks]

I

I think they will treat him like Ernie Banks who is in as a SS though he only had 45% of his PA as a SS and more as a 1B. He was a great SS through age 30 winning both his MVPs. 80% of his WAR came through age 30. Banks was a HOF SS and mostly a below average 1B the second half of his career. I have no doubt that Joe Mauer will be in the HOF.

Fair point, but a few points on Banks.

He had 21 more career WAR than Joe currently has.

His peak was much better than Joe's. He had a 10+ WAR season (!!!), a 9+ WAR season, and 2 more 8+ WAR seasons. Joe's best was a 7.8 WAR season, so Banks had 4 seasons better than Joe's 2009 season, which is pretty insane.

 

If Joe had a peak like that during his catching days, he'd be a 100% first ballot lock.

 

As it stands now, I think it's a lot closer than you think.

It's so close, IMO, I wouldn't bet even a single dollar on either side of the bet.

[jorgenswest]

Fair point, but a few points on Banks.

He had 21 more career WAR than Joe currently has.

His peak was much better than Joe's. He had a 10+ WAR season (!!!), a 9+ WAR season, and 2 more 8+ WAR seasons. Joe's best was a 7.8 WAR season, so Banks had 4 seasons better than Joe's 2009 season, which is pretty insane.

If Joe had a peak like that during his catching days, he'd be a 100% first ballot lock.

As it stands now, I think it's a lot closer than you think.

It's so close, IMO, I wouldn't bet even a single dollar on either side of the bet.

According to JAWs, Joe is the 7th ranked catcher and Ernie is the 7th ranked SS.

[Mr. Brooks]

According to JAWs, Joe is the 7th ranked catcher and Ernie is the 7th ranked SS.

Good point.

[MN_ExPat]

 

You'd rather see the Twins re-sign Mauer than win a World Series?   If so, you are Mauer fan and not a Twins' fan.

That's a wee bit snarky, don't ya' think??

[killertwinfan]

I am not sure where you go this, but Mauer only played in 113 games  in 2013 and I think this would make him the highest paid player by a fair margin for that season.  To me there is no question that he did not provide the value we expected. Whether it was juiced baseballs or juiced baseball players we needed to see at 25 HR per year and more RBI.  $8M, is probably on the high side.  $6M is more in my comfort zone.  

 

 

Let's take it a bit further and look at the huge Mauer contract:

 

2017: Mauer has 2.3 WAR. WAR is worth $10.5 mill. Mauer is worth $24.15 mill
2016: Mauer has 0.9 WAR. WAR is worth $10.2 mill. Mauer is worth $9.18 mill
2015: Mauer has 0.2 WAR. WAR is worth $9.6 mill. Mauer is worth $1.92 mill
2014: Mauer has 1.6 WAR. WAR is worth $7.7 mill. Mauer is worth $12.32 mill
2013: Mauer has 5.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.2 mill. Mauer is worth $37.44 mill
2012: Mauer has 4.5 WAR. WAR is worth $6.2 mill. Mauer is worth $27.9 mill
2011: Mauer has 1.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.4 mill. Mauer is worth $8.88 mill.

 

Thus far Mauer has been worth $121.79 million in all but the final year of a $184 million contract. 

 

He needs a pretty big throwback season to make the whole contract worth it. If WAR is worth $10.5 million this year he'd need a 6.0 WAR season. So far he has 0.6 WAR and is on pace for 8.8 WAR. Let's rewrite this narrative and make that contract worth it!

 

 

[ewen21]

We are not getting him into the HOF.  IT will be the Baseball Writers' Association of America, not people from Minnesota (or Twins fans) who love Joe Mauer.  

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by ewen21

[Squirrel]

As of this moment Mauer is second in the majors in BA, second in the majors in OBP and seventh in the majors in OPS. A player with that kind of offensive production is more than welcome in my lineup no matter what position he plays. And if he's a stellar defender on top of that there is nothing to complain about. A 2-year extension for a player who is obviously still able to play baseball at an elite level should be a no-brainer.

Concur. Provided his numbers stay close to that by season’s end. I think it’s too early in the season to proclaim anything about any player.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

all of which ignores that he is the face of the franchise, puts butts in seats and sells #7 jerseys. Ever been to a Twins game? They are everywhere

Yes - he is the face of the franchise and his jersey is popular.  If we went buy jerseys we'd be in the hunt for Carew, Killebrew, and Puckett too.  This has nothing to do with it.

 

I don't speak for all fans, but I don't know if I ever bought a ticket just to see Mauer play.  He's just not that type of player.  I bought a ticket to watch Johan pitch, I bought tickets to see McGuire and Sosa, I bought tickets to see a really good Twins team in the mid-2000's, but I have never once bought a ticket to see Joe slap an opposite field single.  This isn't me ripping on him...I appreciate everything about Mauer, but my point is that he's not that "must see" type of player IMO.

 

If they bring him back it should only be based on the market value and whether they believe he makes the team better.  Don't get me wrong - it would be awful to see Joe in another uniform but I'm also more impressed with wins than watching aging stars bring down a team.  At this point, I don't see a viable replacement so as long as we can get him at a fair deal, then I see him in a Twins uniform for the next few years!

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yes - he is the face of the franchise and his jersey is popular.  If we went buy jerseys we'd be in the hunt for Carew, Killebrew, and Puckett too.  This has nothing to do with it.

 

I don't speak for all fans, but I don't know if I ever bought a ticket just to see Mauer play.  He's just not that type of player.  I bought a ticket to watch Johan pitch, I bought tickets to see McGuire and Sosa, I bought tickets to see a really good Twins team in the mid-2000's, but I have never once bought a ticket to see Joe slap an opposite field single.  This isn't me ripping on him...I appreciate everything about Mauer, but my point is that he's not that "must see" type of player IMO.

 

If they bring him back it should only be based on the market value and whether they believe he makes the team better.  Don't get me wrong - it would be awful to see Joe in another uniform but I'm also more impressed with wins than watching aging stars bring down a team.  At this point, I don't see a viable replacement so as long as we can get him at a fair deal, then I see him in a Twins uniform for the next few years!

 

I don't think Kelly is saying that people go just to see Mauer - she's saying that Mauer has value beyond what is on the field. For one thing, he certainly sells memorabilia that benefit the bottom line. I'd also argue that while you may not be going to see games to see Mauer, plenty of Minnesotans still see him as a big draw. No one goes to a game for one position player (well, maybe Bonds back in the day?) but Mauer is a big part of the Twins experience.

 

I can't tell you the number of times I've been queueing for a day game (hooray "working" downtown in the summer!) and heard people in line talking about whether or not Joe will get the day off. He's no longer the face of the franchise but he's top-5 player on a given day for most Twins fans. For me still #1 but I'm an extreme Mauer-lover.

 

I think some sense of decorum plays into this. The Twins could likely go out there and find someone cheaper with more upside, especially since they have Sano and Morrison for next year at 1B if need be. But there's a sense of doing the right thing - if Mauer can play at an MLB level and isn't asking for $18 million/year, it seems like you're picking a fight for no reason.

 

It also can't hurt to have demonstrated that kind of loyalty, especially when you think about the Twins FO need to sign guys like Berrios, Buxton, Kepler etc. in the coming years. Showing you take care of your guys has to have some impact. I was thinking about that when Joe was getting his standing O for #2000 - you have to think that Kepler, Buxton and co. were thinking about whether that could be them someday. These guys play for the money but they were all little kids too, thinking about being the hero in the big game.

 

All of this will be a moo point when Mauer hits .400 for the year of course.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I am not sure where you go this, but Mauer only played in 113 games  in 2013 and I think this would make him the highest paid player by a fair margin for that season.  To me there is no question that he did not provide the value we expected. Whether it was juiced baseballs or juiced baseball players we needed to see at 25 HR per year and more RBI.  $8M, is probably on the high side.  $6M is more in my comfort zone.  

 

That table is a creation of my own but it's based on reputable sources. Fangraphs lists a player WAR and calculates what each point of WAR is worth per year. From there it's just multiplication and addition. Feel free to check the math but I did it twice and got the same numbers. Not sure about your 2013 point either. Mauer had an .880 OPS and played 75 games at C. That's pretty valuable even if it isn't 120 games at C.

 

No one is saying the contract paid off. If you read the chart, it says that Mauer has not provided the value of the contract. Says it pretty explicitly. He'd need a 6.0 WAR season (basically Joey Votto) to make the contract with it. He'd basically have to play pretty near the level he's playing right now all year.

 

My point is that he's close to being worth the contract (conservatively assuming he ends up with 2.0 WAR he'd end up being $40 million under the contract - which averages out to like $5 million/yr) and that's with a pretty-close-to-worst-case scenario: concussions forced him from catcher 3 years before we expected and cost him basically two years without being a big enough injury the Twins got insurance money.

 

P.S. For fun, I also looked at 2006 to 2010. On a $33.4 million contract, Joe Mauer produced $164.51 million of WAR. That's pretty insane.

 

P.P.S. If Mauer puts up 2.0 WAR season, it's be worth $20 million+. Now he's not going to get that because the upside isn't there and the downside isn't but $8 million is really low. I'd see $10-$12 million and think the Twins could be getting a nice bargain.

 

P.P.P.S. Are you suggesting that Joe Mauer is on steroids? That seems pretty unlikely

[ThejacKmp]

 

As of this moment Mauer is second in the majors in BA, second in the majors in OBP and seventh in the majors in OPS. 

 

Can we take a minute to say how crazy it is that his OPS is 7th with no HR or 3Bs? I know it's small sample but even so, you'd think that enough guys would've hit 5-8 HR and be ahead of him. Speaks to the insane OBP he's been putting up this year.

[Mike Sixel]

People are convinced this is the real Joe Mauer, but not convinced this is the real Buxton?

 

I think we need more than 10-15 games to know what either might be, but I could be wrong. 

 

Like it or not, the game is about more than just OBP. He plays (more accurately, how they expect him to play in the next year or two) first base, how he plays relative to:

 

1. Other options for the Twins

2. Other first basemen

 

is how his future should be judged.

 

IMO, we aren't enough games into this season to have any real idea yet.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[killertwinfan]

I understood your point and I am sure your math is accurate.  I was pointing out that the dollar link to WAR could be a flawed approach because he wasn't actually worth $37M in 2013.  Joe on steroids now?  I highly doubt it.  In 2009 when he hit 28HR? I have no idea. Could be juiced baseballs, could be something else. It certainly is an outlier of a season in terms of home runs and is very well timed when you are trying to earn that big contract!

 

 

That table is a creation of my own but it's based on reputable sources. Fangraphs lists a player WAR and calculates what each point of WAR is worth per year. From there it's just multiplication and addition. Feel free to check the math but I did it twice and got the same numbers. Not sure about your 2013 point either. Mauer had an .880 OPS and played 75 games at C. That's pretty valuable even if it isn't 120 games at C.

 

No one is saying the contract paid off. If you read the chart, it says that Mauer has not provided the value of the contract. Says it pretty explicitly. He'd need a 6.0 WAR season (basically Joey Votto) to make the contract with it. He'd basically have to play pretty near the level he's playing right now all year.

 

My point is that he's close to being worth the contract (conservatively assuming he ends up with 2.0 WAR he'd end up being $40 million under the contract - which averages out to like $5 million/yr) and that's with a pretty-close-to-worst-case scenario: concussions forced him from catcher 3 years before we expected and cost him basically two years without being a big enough injury the Twins got insurance money.

 

P.S. For fun, I also looked at 2006 to 2010. On a $33.4 million contract, Joe Mauer produced $164.51 million of WAR. That's pretty insane.

 

P.P.S. If Mauer puts up 2.0 WAR season, it's be worth $20 million+. Now he's not going to get that because the upside isn't there and the downside isn't but $8 million is really low. I'd see $10-$12 million and think the Twins could be getting a nice bargain.

 

P.P.P.S. Are you suggesting that Joe Mauer is on steroids? That seems pretty unlikely

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I understood your point and I am sure your math is accurate.  I was pointing out that the dollar link to WAR could be a flawed approach because he wasn't actually worth $37M in 2013.  Joe on steroids now?  I highly doubt it.  In 2009 when he hit 28HR? I have no idea. Could be juiced baseballs, could be something else. It certainly is an outlier of a season in terms of home runs and is very well timed when you are trying to earn that big contract!

 

What's your argument for him not being worth it in 2013? He put up 5.6 WAR. For context, that would put him around Pedroia, Rizzo and Lindor territory last year. That's pretty solid company. I know he played 113 games but 75 were at catcher and were gold glove quality. Definitely worth $37 million with that offense at catcher.

 

As far as steroids, that's ludicrous. Mauer was in line for a big extension no matter what, that year aded some dollars but wasn't the reason he got a big deal. It also wasn't a contract year, he was a year away from free agency. If you look at those home runs in 2009, almost all of them were in the first five rows in left and left center field. He hit most of them at home and took advantage of the Metronome having a short field. Also, you just don't know Joe if you think he was on steroids. There's no player in baseball I'd be more shocked to hear was on roids than Mauer. He only drinks milk.

 

I'm violently opposed to saying anyone was on steroids (ball juiced is ridiculous since it wasn't juiced for just Mauer) unless you have more proof than "He hit 28 home runs one year and never hit more than 13." That's irresponsible, even for an opinion.

[killertwinfan]

Because no one got paid that much in 2013.  

What's your argument for him not being worth it in 2013? He put up 5.6 WAR. For context, that would put him around Pedroia, Rizzo and Lindor territory last year. That's pretty solid company. I know he played 113 games but 75 were at catcher and were gold glove quality. Definitely worth $37 million with that offense at catcher.

 

As far as steroids, that's ludicrous. Mauer was in line for a big extension no matter what, that year aded some dollars but wasn't the reason he got a big deal. It also wasn't a contract year, he was a year away from free agency. If you look at those home runs in 2009, almost all of them were in the first five rows in left and left center field. He hit most of them at home and took advantage of the Metronome having a short field. Also, you just don't know Joe if you think he was on steroids. There's no player in baseball I'd be more shocked to hear was on roids than Mauer. He only drinks milk.

 

I'm violently opposed to saying anyone was on steroids (ball juiced is ridiculous since it wasn't juiced for just Mauer) unless you have more proof than "He hit 28 home runs one year and never hit more than 13." That's irresponsible, even for an opinion.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Because no one got paid that much in 2013.  

 

Huh? Just because no one got paid that much in 2013 doesn't mean that no one was worth that much. Players can have extra value beyond what they're paid if they perform well. 

 

In fact, this most regularly happens with star players. By stats and on-court performance, Lebron James and Kevin Durant are worth two and three time what they're paid in the NBA but because of the cap, they get paid less that that. Your third center who gets paid $5 million is getting way more than his value - that's the result of collective bargaining.

 

Baseball isn't as drastic as the NBA because of the lack of a cap but owners are constantly using their leverage to drive salary down. I'm not going to get into collusion this past offseason but it has clearly happened in the past. Guys like Kershaw, Harper, Trout etc. produce way more than they are paid, even with astronomical salary.

 

Mauer in 2013 is similar. He was early in a contract that was set up so that, in an ideal world, he would exceed the yearly value on the front end and come up short on the back end. The concussion changed that but it's not weird that he would exceed the $23 million on the front end of the contract. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

People are convinced this is the real Joe Mauer, but not convinced this is the real Buxton?

 

I think we need more than 10-15 games to know what either might be, but I could be wrong. 

 

Like it or not, the game is about more than just OBP. He plays (more accurately, how they expect him to play in the next year or two) first base, how he plays relative to:

 

1. Other options for the Twins

2. Other first basemen

 

is how his future should be judged.

 

IMO, we aren't enough games into this season to have any real idea yet.

 

Oh this is not the real Joe Mauer. He'll certainly fall back to earth. But this fast start makes me feel better about him being able to replicate last year's stats. For one thing, he's bankrolled these games. For another, he's having great at bats so it meets the eye test.

 

Agreed that the big thing is what the Twins other options are.

 

1) They don't have strong internal candidates unless Rooker goes nuts and Sano can't play 3B etc.

 

2) The free agent market looks pretty barren - Mauer might actually be the best candidate at 1B since he's certainly above Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Parmelee (the 1B free agents I located). DH has Victor Martinez, Evan Gattis and Nelson Cruz hitting the market. I don't see the Twins making a move on one of those three, though perhaps Cruz or Martinez might be interesting.

 

Hard to see a better external candidate and internally, there seems to be a place. Depends on the money but Joe doesn't seem like he'll demand a ton and it's in the Twins best interests not to try to screw him. If he wants to play and is reasonably effective I'd see a 1 or 2 year deal for sure. 

 

EDIT: I'll take that back. Lucas Duda might be an equivalent option to Mauer at 1B. He is perennially underrated and underpaid. $3.5 million this year for a guy who hit 30 bombs last year and put up an .818 OPS. He hits lefty too so that makes it tougher too. Joe has more OBP and better D but they're not dissimilar value wise. I still don't see the Twins going after him since Joe means more and Duda is a bit redundant as a strikeout-prone three outcomes guy. But worth saying that Duda is not on the same replacement level as those other guys.

Edited April 17, 2018 by ThejacKmp