Article: Changing Timeline: Is It Time To Start Worrying About Santana?

[Danchat]

 

Worrying?   Why?  There are two pitchers in the organization, one available now (Fernando Romero) and one available later (Trevor May) who are likely better than Santana, with a third (Michael Pineda) who will be ready to come during the final sprint of the season.

 

Wasted money this season and he should had been traded when he had some value after last season that was an aberration.

 

Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins anyways, with Lance Lynn's addition...

Look, I have always been an advocate for Trevor May, but calling him a better pitcher than Ervin Santana? We barely have enough tape on the guy in the majors as a starter to even think that he's better than Ervin. Now after having back problems and then missing a full year to Tommy John surgery, he'll suddenly become a better pitcher than Santana? I highly doubt that.

 

And saying that Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins is simply inaccurate. He was going to be the Opening Day pitcher until the injury happened. The rotation would have been Santana-Odorizzi-Berrios-Lynn-Gibson... I bet if you asked Molitor who his ace starter was, he'd tell you it is Ervin. Even if he's the de facto ace, that makes him at the very least relevant.

 

I was open to trading him, but the price had to be right. I expect regression for him, but apparently not as much as you do... I can just imagine it now, seeing Twins Daily blow up after the front office trades Santana for a B-level prospect and whiffing on Darvish. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

And saying that Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins is simply inaccurate. He was going to be the Opening Day pitcher until the injury happened.

 

Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...

[ahart10]

I’m not too worried. It’s the last year of his deal so if he comes back and is horrible they will just 60day DL and go with hopefully not Hughes.

[Danchat]

 

Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...

I don't think Falvey/Levine anticipated that Santana would need surgery in February after his post-season MRI came back clean. Santana started pitching again in February and felt discomfort, leading to the surgery. I suppose it's possible the front office knew something about Ervin's finger I that everyone else didn't, but I doubt it.

[TheLeviathan]

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.  I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

 

 

[Teddy]

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm not worried. Even if it takes until June 1 for him to be ready to go, that just means he'll be fresher for the stretch run later this summer.

 

If this stretches out longer than that, I might reserve the right to change my perspective.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think Falvey/Levine anticipated that Santana would need surgery in February after his post-season MRI came back clean. Santana started pitching again in February and felt discomfort, leading to the surgery. I suppose it's possible the front office knew something about Ervin's finger I that everyone else didn't, but I doubt it.

They knew about at the end of the year and went with the rest and rehab approach.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, I'm 99.99% sure that SpoTrac is wrong.

MLBTraderumors, Cot's Contracts, and Twinkie Town all report that it's AND 200 IP in 2018.

The writers on this site have also previously confirmed that it's AND 200 IP in 2018.

 

With a Google search of Ervin Santana contract, SpoTrac is the only place reporting it as OR 200 IP in 2018, so I don't know where they are sourcing that from.

They’ve had it listed that way for ages and it’s wrong.

[Oxtung]

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.  I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

I’m not sure if it gets to “likely” because that depends on ones personal definition but there are a lot of red flags for Santana right now.

 

-he’s 35

-out performed his peripherals last couple of years

-unsustainable BABIP and strand rates last season

-fly ball pitcher in middle of fly ball revolution

-his first game action will come against teams in mid-season form

-his arm has been heavily used and he will still be playing with a partially torn ligament

-coming back from injury (and a fairly major one IMO considering how integral that finger is and how poorly it’s gone so far)

 

Does that get one to likely? Maybe. Maybe not. As I said earlier it depends on ones definition. However let’s not pretend there no “facts or evidence” suggesting it’s possible.

 

Personally, if the choice was Santana or one of the field, I’d take the field.

[TheLeviathan]

The last time Trevor May started a baseball game Barack Obama was President.

 

Fernando Romero has pitched one game above AA and last year, at AA, posted a 4.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35.

 

I don't care what your definition of likely is, they aren't "likely" to outpitch a guy that has posted an ERA+ over 100 all three years with the Twins.  Is it impossible?  Of course not.  But likely is just nonsense.

[jharaldson]

 

They’ve had it listed that way for ages and it’s wrong.

 

Just to confirm, I had done some research and found that Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in 2014 when the contract was signed:

 

https://www.twincities.com/2014/12/12/twins-signing-ervin-santana-about-more-than-the-arm/

 

Santana’s deal includes a fifth-year vesting option based on innings pitched — either 200 in 2018 or a combined 400 in 2017-18 — but it does not include a no-trade provision.

 

I would trust Beradino over all of the other sources as I think he may have actually spoken to someone vs just being an aggregator of news articles written by others.  Are you saying Mike is wrong as well?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would trust Beradino over all of the other sources as I think he may have actually spoken to someone vs just being an aggregator of news articles written by others. Are you saying Mike is wrong as well?

Of course, Berardino has reported it the other way more recently too:

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/04/05/ervin-santana-could-be-sent-back-to-hand-surgeon-for-another-look/amp/

[Oxtung]

The last time Trevor May started a baseball game Barack Obama was President.

 

Fernando Romero has pitched one game above AA and last year, at AA, posted a 4.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35.

 

I don't care what your definition of likely is, they aren't "likely" to outpitch a guy that has posted an ERA+ over 100 all three years with the Twins.  Is it impossible?  Of course not.  But likely is just nonsense.

I’ll be very surprised if Santana has an ERA+ >100 and pitches more than 100 innings this season.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I’ll be very surprised if Santana has an ERA+ >100 and pitches more than 100 innings this season.

 

That can all be true and it can still be silly to think it is "likely" he'll be worse than a guy who hasn't started in two years (or pitched at all in a year) and a rookie who had a 4+ ERA in AA last year are going to rise up and be better than him.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That can all be true and it can still be silly to think it is "likely" he'll be worse than a guy who hasn't started in two years (or pitched at all in a year) and a rookie who had a 4+ ERA in AA last year are going to rise up and be better than him.  

Never mind that Santana has started 80 games for the Twins and compiled a 123 ERA+ in the process.

 

Sure, he might (likely will) regress from 2017. That doesn't mean he's going to implode because he has a long way to drop before it becomes an implosion.

 

Hell, getting eight weeks off to start the season could actually end up being good for the guy. People are writing him off and I'm not sure why.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well I, for one, don't think he'll be the same after the surgery.

I have no medical data to back that up, but i just feel like that finger is too important to the delivery of his slider, and I don't think he'll be able to throw it effectively anymore.

[kab21]

 

The last time Trevor May started a baseball game Barack Obama was President.

 

Fernando Romero has pitched one game above AA and last year, at AA, posted a 4.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35.

 

I don't care what your definition of likely is, they aren't "likely" to outpitch a guy that has posted an ERA+ over 100 all three years with the Twins.  Is it impossible?  Of course not.  But likely is just nonsense.

At this point due to injury, a late season start and age I am not any more confident that he would outperform Romero or May this season.

But Thyrlos made a statement that Romero and May were better than Santana and Santana was going to be irrelevant this season anyway. I completely disagree with that. The injury changes things though.

[DocBauer]

Look, I'm not a doctor...its only a nickname...but I'm disappointed. Not worried, just disappointed. I get a pitcher's hand/fingers are important, but thjs was a clean-up procedure, yes? Not TJ, not a labrum or a ripped up knee. It may take time get a "feel" for everything again, as well as build up full arm strength, but this guy is a proven commodity. He's had a solid career, and has been good to excellent since joining the Twins. He had one of his best season's last year while pitching with discomfort in his finger. He is now, from reports I've seen, gripping the ball and playing catch. Call me an optimist if you want, but I'd think when he gets cranked up, eventually, having a healthier finger could make him more effective than last season.

 

I am very disappointed he's going to miss the first month, maybe two, if this season. And maybe he even struggles a couple times out of the gate, but I'm just not worried at this point.

[DocBauer]

As to May...since he's been brought up here...he's been a hard luck case, and probably mishandled in his Twins career. I'm not trying to open up a can of worms again, but he was showing signs of rounding in to a nice, solid SP a couple of years ago when Gardenhire moved him to the pen over Pelfrey. His back issues may or may not have been related to adjusting to the pen in 2016, but it happened nonetheless. But he was looking really good in ST 2017 before his elbow gave out. Hell, he even finished his inning with his elbow shredded.

 

Is he going to come back and save the day? Probably not. And we all know it takes some time to get the full feel of your pitches back. But he's got some quality stuff, and some potential still. Potential to help this season and even more next, like Pineda. Don't count on him, but don't dismiss him.

[TheLeviathan]

At this point due to injury, a late season start and age I am not any more confident that he would outperform Romero or May this season.

But Thyrlos made a statement that Romero and May were better than Santana and Santana was going to be irrelevant this season anyway. I completely disagree with that. The injury changes things though.

Absolutely, injuries are wildcards that shake your confidence. Im making no grand predictions about Santana, more asserting just how grand a prediction it is to think May or Romero are going to jump from their last season to what was stated in this thread.

[Oxtung]

Absolutely, injuries are wildcards that shake your confidence. Im making no grand predictions about Santana, more asserting just how grand a prediction it is to think May or Romero are going to jump from their last season to what was stated in this thread.

I, and Thrylos based on his previous statements, have very different views on Romero than you do. He had a 2.60 ERA, >9 K/9, and a >50% ground ball rate up until his last 3 starts last year where he utterly fell apart. To me that is clearly fatigue, which is also what we saw with Berrios a few years back. Romero is much better than the “4+ ERA” guy you are portraying him as, IMO.

 

To get back to my original point, there absolutely is credible evidence to suggest that Romero or May will be better than Santana.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I, and Thrylos based on his previous statements, have very different views on Romero than you do. He had a 2.60 ERA, >9 K/9, and a >50% ground ball rate up until his last 3 starts last year where he utterly fell apart. To me that is clearly fatigue, which is also what we saw with Berrios a few years back. Romero is much better than the “4+ ERA” guy you are portraying him as, IMO.

To get back to my original point, there absolutely is credible evidence to suggest that Romero or May will be better than Santana.

 

I disagree, you have credible speculation.  You have plausible hopes.  Not evidence.  

 

Plus, I'm not sure the argument "he made 20 starts and was so exhausted he stunk terribly" is a compelling argument.   

 

And, again, this is not crowning Santana or crapping on May and Romero.  Just taking that hyperbole about "likeliness" back to reality.

Edited April 12, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[kab21]

 

I, and Thrylos based on his previous statements, have very different views on Romero than you do. He had a 2.60 ERA, >9 K/9, and a >50% ground ball rate up until his last 3 starts last year where he utterly fell apart. To me that is clearly fatigue, which is also what we saw with Berrios a few years back. Romero is much better than the “4+ ERA” guy you are portraying him as, IMO.

To get back to my original point, there absolutely is credible evidence to suggest that Romero or May will be better than Santana.

Your final sentence is 'will be' and Thrylos stated now. I am cautiously optimistic that Romero goes the Liriano route (with the injury risk) because his upside his really high (not just a 4+ ERA guy) but I wouldn't say that he is better than Santana now (minus Santana's injury). Santana wasn't going to be irrelevant (also stated by Thrylos) this season. He might be now though and that is a loss to the rotation.

[Oxtung]

  

Your final sentence is 'will be' and Thrylos stated now. I am cautiously optimistic that Romero goes the Liriano route (with the injury risk) because his upside his really high (not just a 4+ ERA guy) but I wouldn't say that he is better than Santana now (minus Santana's injury). Santana wasn't going to be irrelevant (also stated by Thrylos) this season. He might be now though and that is a loss to the rotation.

The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence.

 

So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.

 

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.  I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  
The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence.

So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.
 

And there we have a semantical argument. I'm not saying that's a bad thing but when someone says to me "likely", I translate that as "likely to happen". That implies a better than 50% chance of something happening.

 

You're not wrong in your use of that word but also understand my use of that word is equally correct.

 

It's a vague word.

[TheLeviathan]

 

  
The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence.

So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.
 

 

What "evidence" you have is still based almost entirely in speculation.  That's fine, but it's much weaker evidence.

 

What I actually said was that saying it's "likely" to happen flies in the face of evidence.  A phrase which typically means the vast majority of evidence available is on the other side of your opinion.  And, further, I explicitly said there is a chance it's true.  What I have taken issue with is the word "likely".  So I'll reiterate:

 

The idea that Trevor May, who hasn't started a baseball game in two years or even pitched in one for well over a year, and a promising prospect who hasn't risen above AA will "likely" be better than Ervin Santana flies in the face of majority of the evidence we have.  Could it happen?  Yes.  Is it likely to happen?  That's silly hyperbole.

Edited April 13, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[kab21]

 

  
The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence.

So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.
 

You do realize that this entire debate started with Thrylos's bold claim that they are better than Ervin?

 

He didn't even leave it open as a possibility that Ervin had any value to this year's team due to the two mentioned pitchers AND the rest of the rotation. That is the flat out absurdity of the statement. This rotation is much improved and there are actually good reinforcements available (like those mentioned) but the rotation isn't that good.

[Mr. Brooks]

ESPN reporting that Ervin Santana has been shut down, and sent to see a specialist.

 

I never believed the club for a second when they said May 1st return, that was borderline preposterous, IMO.

 

I also haven't thought he'd ever be the same again after the surgery, certainly not this season.

 

Anyone rethinking their expectations from Santana at this point?