Article: Blackmon's Deal With Rockies Sets Precedent For Dozier

[Nick Nelson]

Brian Dozier wants get paid what he's worth. As he should. The superstar second baseman has earned a relative pittance in his MLB career up to this point.

 

Trouble is, in a suddenly fluctuating player market, it's a bit tricky to assess just what his worth is, practically speaking. But a new $108 million contract extension struck on Wednesday by the Rockies with their stud center fielder Charlie Blackmon may provide some clues.Not so long ago, a Gold Glove infielder with elite power production would've been a shoe-in for a monster deal. But the past offseason made it clear that valuations are changing across the league, and the standard indicators of a surefire free agent windfall are shifting.

 

Dozier, for his part, seems to get it.

 

"If you hit 30 home runs and drive in 80 and you’re one-dimensional and your WAR is a .8 you aren’t going to get paid like players used to," he said during spring training. "If you’ve had a high WAR for many years, I think you’ll do all right.”

 

That last viewpoint is surely helping to fuel Dozier's confidence as he approaches his first date with the open market. Blackmon's new deal will only serve to bolster it.

 

Over the past two seasons, Dozier ranks 13th among all big-leaguers in WAR (the FanGraphs version) at 10.8; Blackmon ranks one spot behind him, with his 10.6 mark checking at No. 14.

 

Blackmon is a year older than Dozier and has followed a somewhat similar career path — a late-bloomer who turned the corner from quality performer to top-tier stud in his late 20s.

 

Although they are different players in many ways, Dozier and his agent now have a reasonable baseline to work against.

 

Breaking Down Blackmon's Deal

Here's how the pact for Blackmon works out, per NBC Sports:

 

2018: $12 million + $2 million signing bonus, which basically replaces the $14 million arbitration-avoiding deal Blackmon signed in January;

 

2019: $21 million;

 

2020: $21 million;

 

2021: $21 million;

 

2022: $21 million Player Option;

 

2023: $10 million Player Option, subject to various bonuses and escalators.

 

So essentially, it's a five-year extension with opt-outs in the last two years. That works out to an average of almost $19 million per season, which is about what Dozier could expect in 2019 if he were to accept a qualifying offer from the Twins.

 

Given his desire to cash in with a career payday and lock up long-term security, I see almost no chance the second baseman would accept a QO unless something happens to seriously diminish his value between now and then. But offering it is essentially a no-brainer for Minnesota.

 

What Kind of Offer Would Make Sense for the Twins?

We're getting ahead of ourselves here, obviously. Dozier and the Twins have both made clear that in-season negotiations are off the table, so any negotiations will need to take place in the coming offseason, where Minnesota will have to bid against the field.

 

Considering the prudence they've shown up to this point, it seems unlikely the Twins front office would be willing to offer a five-year, $100 million contract in the realm of Blackmon's. Their best bet might be to try to retain Dozier with something in the three-year, $75 million range. It would minimize his risk of diminishing production with age, and by the time such a deal expired, prospects like Royce Lewis and Wander Javier figure to be just breaking into the majors.

 

My sense, however, is that Dozier will prioritize length in his next contract, and recognizing that the Twins won't meet his terms may be the basis for his evident resignation. I continue to believe this will be his last year in Twins uniform, but the potentially career-altering PED suspension for Jorge Polanco – Dozier's possible heir apparent at second – could change things.

 

In any case, with Blackmon and the Rockies hammering out a long-term agreement, we at least have some clarity around what kind of commitment Dozier might realistically command.

 

More on Twins Daily:

• Steve Buhr lists some highlights from media night for what figures to be a very intriguing Cedar Rapids Kernels team
• My breakdown of the first Twins homestand, which kicks off Thursday with the Target Field opener
• Your chance to win free tickets to a meet-and-greet with Twins DH Logan Morrison
• Cody Christie's preview of this year's Ft. Myers Miracle squad

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff. Clearly long term deals are not dead yet! I don't know what I'd do if I was them.

[Rosterman]

Interesting. That's a lot of money to pay for a guy who may be on the downswing. Yes, he may be comfortable at Rockies land, so you are, in a sense, rewarding him for what he has done for the team already.

 

Should the Twins do the same?

 

A monster start by Dozier means they could get something for him in mid-season, assuming Polanco or Gordon are ready to advance and become the future for the Twins middle-infield, at least until Escobar leaves and Lewis and Company arrive, too.

 

I conisdered Dozier an almsot more valuable asset to invest in than, say, Joe Mauer. Joe Mauer continues to be the elephant in the room. If you resign Mauer, he plays first or he is the designated hitter. If you sign Dozier for the equivalent of what you might have to pay Mauer on a year-to-year, you get a guy who can still play second next season, probably even beyond. And he could rotate into playing first base, being a designated hitter, and possibly even pick up a third baseman or outfieldes glove in an emergency. Plus he shows the power you want from the designated hitter position going forth, and he could continue to be the Face of the Franchise, so-to-speak, in years 3-5 of a contract.

 

The question is: How much. Is Dozier worth $100 million? I would say no, but like our Minnesota ownership, I am also cheap. Would Dozier give us five years for $60 million? I bet he'd rather try the free agent marketplace. But then he will be walking away (more than likely) from a qualifying offer and he MIGHT not find takers for three years at $15+ million a year. Or, maybe he will. But the Twins would at least get a compensatory pick...which again, at the tradeline, is probably what they would also get for Brian, unless they would take another free-agent-to-be off the hands of another team (along with a prospect).

 

I shake my head at the Blackmon deal. That shows that a player needs to strike, when they can, after a big season. The guy is good, but would another team have poney-ied up the same.

 

Dozier. Dozier. The Twins had the chance to make a longer-range decision on Brian that might've extended him two years beyond today in the off-season before last. They could've dangled something, anything....but not sure what this off-season. 

 

But, in the end, Dozier would be a fool not to try free agency. Happily he will play hard and, if he stays healthy, will be a benefit for the eam.

 

Although batting him third and maybe having him hit home runs with men on base would be a nicer choice than all these leadoff dingers!

[gunnarthor]

I do hope Dozier gets paid very well this offseason. I don't think it'll be us though. For all the payroll changes the Pohlad's have made, we're still a pretty low payroll team (I think we're #19 this year) so a longterm commitment to Dozier doesn't really work.

[beckmt]

I just do not see more than a three year deal from the Twins.  At that point Lewis and Javier are here. Along with Polanco and Gordon.  

Would like to see Dozier stay, just do not see the numbers and prospects working.  

[TheLeviathan]

If he wants to do something similar for half the years, I'm interested.  

 

I'd give him 3/65 even.  But anything over 3 years and I'm out unless it's a full team option.

[Dman]

I know it is early in the season but Dozier has been such a catalyst for this team it is hard to imagine him not being here.  I mean with the home runs and the good defense he is pretty much impossible to replace right now.  

 

He is aging and we have guys ready to step in and replace him to some degree but this offense will take a hit if he leaves. 

 

I think this FO might want to invest the Joe Mauer money in pitching so signing Dozier doesn't seem likely but the way he is playing right now this team is going to miss him unless other guys really pick up their level of play.

[Thrylos]

Not.Even.Close.

 

If Dozier ever hits .331/.399/.601 like Blackmon did last season, then he might have a case.

 

Otherwise he better keep continuing the whining regarding rookies bunting against the shift...

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier has been better three of the last four years.... So, ya, you might want to rethink that stance...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier has been better three of the last four years.... So, ya, you might want to rethink that stance...

Yeah... they're close to the same player (Dozier has ~600 more PAs, about 5 more fWAR).

 

Oh, except Dozier is a year younger.

 

Honestly, I don't get the Rockies making this deal but that's not unusual; I don't understand loads of things the Rockies do.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

Joe Mauer continues to be the elephant in the room. If you resign Mauer, he plays first or he is the designated hitter. If you sign Dozier for the equivalent of what you might have to pay Mauer on a year-to-year, you get a guy who can still play second next season, probably even beyond. 

 

 

This is crazy talk. Joe Mauer over five years would cost nothing even close to Dozier. You'll get Mauer on one or two year deals at $5 mill to $10 mill per year. He won't go elsewhere. Dozier is going to cost $20 to $25 million per year and you're going to have to go at least four years from the get go.

 

You make fine points about Dozier playing 2B or 3B but the Twins have a ton of middle infielders coming up, Sano looks good at 3B for at least 2-3 years and you don't pay a guy like Dozier Blackmon money and years if you're smart. There's little upside on the deal.

 

Mauer is the kind of vet the Twins should be keeping around - he doesn't cost much, he comes year-to-year and he plays a position (LHB first baseman) that the Twins don't have an obvious replacement for. Dozier is a luxury. If the Twins can get him for three years and $50-$60 mill they should. Otherwise they should take the draft pick.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

 

I think this FO might want to invest the Joe Mauer money in pitching so signing Dozier doesn't seem likely but the way he is playing right now this team is going to miss him unless other guys really pick up their level of play.

 

Joe Mauer money from here on forward is middle reliever to set-up man money. Dozier money from here on forward is #2/#3 starter money.

 

We will miss Dozier but good teams replace Dozier in talent and leadership from within.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Dozier. Dozier. The Twins had the chance to make a longer-range decision on Brian that might've extended him two years beyond today in the off-season before last. They could've dangled something, anything....but not sure what this off-season. 

 

 

Dozier would have little incentive to do that. He'd have a decent amount in the bank and unless you gave him 2 years, $45 mill he'd be better off betting on Free-Agency-at-31 over Free-Agency-at-33. 31 teams talk themselves into, 33 teams talk themselves out of.

 

Not sure he'd even have taken that 2 years $45 mill. Might take closer to $50.

[BK432]

I don't think the issue is the AAV so much as the contract length. If Dozier would do 3/75 I think the Twins would do it. But locking him up for 5 years starts to have an impact on the core of youngsters. I hope something happens to keep him here, but I guess I'm not too optimistic it will happen.

[Homer Hanky]

2019

1B = Sano

2B = Gordan

SS = Lewis

3B = Dozier

Util = Polanco

 

Trade Rooker and LOMO for Pitching 

[RegularJoe62]

5/100 for Dozier? No. Too much infield depth in the minors.

[rghrbek]

The big difference in this comp as pointed out is CF vs 2b...such different value for elite players.

 

However Dozier is off to a hot start which he rarely has done so that bodes well for him.

 

I prefer to  let this all play out because of our depth.  Dozier will get a 5 year deal from someone, maybe...we will see.

 

If the Twins offered him a 3 year 60 mil deal and he bit I would take it, the problem is he won't bite.  I will be shocked if in the offseason he gets 20+ mil a year though.

Just my thoughts.

[RaoulDuke]

Dozier is only going to age into a lumbering 2nd base/ small 1st base/ or lighter bat dh.  He doesn't have anywhere near the arm to play 3rd or a corner outfield spot. 

 

He could have an late career arc like Ian Kinsler but he could also go the Dan Uggla/ Brett Boone route.

 

He has been an awesome Twin but I think it would be prudent to not be the team to pay his one big contract. 

[TL]

Blackmon turned in a great 2017 season at the right time it seems, and he was probably worth more to the Rockies than anyone else (shades of Joe Mauer 2009). Dozier is a great player but not of same value to the Twins given their middle infield depth and the young star power on the team. Nor is he likely to be of equal value to other teams given what we have seen in contracts for second baseman recently.

 

I would love to sign him for 3 years at ~$60MM and trade a young middle infielder like Gordon for help at the deadline or in the offseason. That would have more immediate value to the team as well as future value as opposed to letting Dozier walk with just a qualifying offer. At 4 years I may do it but the AAV needs to come down.

[old nurse]

I would guess that there are always going to be players who think their value is greater than what it is and use players who play a different position to justify that viewpoint. All it takes is one GM to have a similar opinion.  Dozier will use Blackmon's contract when perhaps Fowler's or Cain's contract at 5/80 would be a better barometer. 

[TFRazor]

 

 

 

Honestly, I don't get the Rockies making this deal but that's not unusual; I don't understand loads of things the Rockies do.

 

There's not enough like buttons in the world for me to demonstrate how much I agree with this statement.

[beckmt]

I could see three years, but anything length longer, please no.  Someone will add the 4th and/or the 5th year, do not let is be us. Money would be better spend on front line pitching.

[Major League Ready]

 

Dozier has been better three of the last four years.... So, ya, you might want to rethink that stance...

 

Dozier's OPS for the last 3 years = .751 / .886 / .856

 

Blackmon's OPS for the last 3 years = .797 / .933 / .1000

 

Plus CF vs 2B

 

Is the team better in 2018 with Gordon at 2B and an additional 20M to spend on a FA, especially given Santana is gone next year?  It really becomes a bad idea if Lewis sticks at SS. Polanco to 2B, Lewis at SS and 20M to spend on FAs 2019-2022.

 

I love Dozier but let him go. Take the money coming off the books next year and lock up some of our core. If you get those guys locked up, we have some great additions in the wings. Romero and Gonsalves are close and Graterol is probably not far off either. Thorpe and Mejia add depth and Thorpe is a good candidate to jump up on prospects lists.

 

Let's maintain the ability to keep the core around instead of spending the money required to keep them on players likely to decline. Let's lock some guys up next year on contract that won't require us to go to age 35 or 36.

[TFRazor]

It's all going to come down to what kind of a free agent market this offseason turns into. If after the big names like Harper and Machado are gone does it revert to a couple of years ago where vets were getting big deals? Or this past offseason where they couldn't seem to catch a break? I think the team is willing to let him hit the market and circle back around to him once the market has been set on the second-tier guys. Honestly don't think blackmon's deal is going to set much of a precedent for what's going to happen in 7 months.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like Dozier as he's one of my favorites, but with the talent in the pipeline, Polanco, and probably Gordon at some point this year, the Twins really don't have a need to keep him. I could see 2019, but beyond that, it's more than likely a poor allocation of resources. 

 

I wish the guy well, and I would definitely QO him, but beyond that, I fully expect him to be playing elsewhere.

[TKGuy]

More AAV and shorter length is the future for players his age

[markos]

 

Dozier's OPS for the last 3 years = .751 / .886 / .856

 

Blackmon's OPS for the last 3 years = .797 / .933 / .1000

 

Plus CF vs 2B

Blackmon's OPS outside of Coor's Field the past 3 years = .695 / .926 / .784

 

I don't think the Twins should resign Dozier at that price, but I do think that Blackmon is a pretty comparable player to Dozier.

 

Justin Turner: 4/64

Lorenzo Cain: 5/80

Charlie Blackmon: 5/94

Justin Upton: 5/106

Dextor Folwer: 5/82

 

Dozier fits with that group.

[Tommygun921]

I really like Dozier. He's a leader, good teammate, defender and obviously has power. As well as he seemed to learn to go opposite field better last year. That being said....I don't know that anyone will give more than say 4 years $80 million. Teams are wising up to overpaying for declining years. He'll be 31 in May and therefore he'd be 36 at the end of his deal. He's a great athlete but when his advanced defensive stats are already suggesting he's average defensively then he could be a liability at the end or middle of that deal.

[Blackjack]

 

 Sano looks good at 3B for at least 2-3 years

After watching that video of him running the bases in yesterdays game recap, i don't know about that. He's a big, big man, if his legs hold up, it will be a miracle.

[Blackjack]

 

It's all going to come down to what kind of a free agent market this offseason turns into. If after the big names like Harper and Machado are gone does it revert to a couple of years ago where vets were getting big deals? Or this past offseason where they couldn't seem to catch a break? I think the team is willing to let him hit the market and circle back around to him once the market has been set on the second-tier guys. Honestly don't think blackmon's deal is going to set much of a precedent for what's going to happen in 7 months.

 

This. 

 

Spend the money on signing our own young guys and pitching.