Article: Twins Relief Pitcher Projections For 2018

[Andrew Thares]

It is time for round two of my player projections for the 2018 Minnesota Twins. In the first edition I broke down the starting pitchers, and now it is time to take a look at the bullpen.

 

The Twins bullpen received an added boost this offseason, after replacing Matt Belisle, Dillon Gee and Buddy Boshers with Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zack Duke. Hopefully these improvements can elevate the Twins bullpen out of the gutter it has been in during recent years.So, how good will the Twins bullpen be this year? Here are my projections for each player in the Twins bullpen, joined by the PECOTA projections, as found on Baseball Prospectus, along with the ZiPS and Steamer projections, which can be found on Fangraphs.

 

RHP Fernando Rodney

 

Fernando Rodney got off to a terrible start in 2017, with a 12.60 ERA through the month of April. However, after April, Rodney was lights out with a 2.38 ERA and a .442 OPS against. This was a driving factor in the Twins giving the 41-year-old an opportunity to be their closer for 2018.

 

RHP Addison Reed

 

Heading into the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors has Addison Reed ranked as their third best free agent relief pitcher, in what was a very deep class. Reed has dominated over the past two seasons, posting a 2.40 ERA over 153.2 innings on his way to the eighth best fWAR among all MLB relievers during that time. If he can continue this success, he could be Paul Molitor’s go to option when the Twins are in a jam.

 

RHP Trevor Hildenberger

 

The funky throwing right-handler may have been the surprise of the Twins bullpen last season. Trevor Hildenberger thrived off his 7.33 strikeout to walk ratio, which was aided by his impeccable control and deceptive delivery. Hildenberger’s delivery isn’t the only deceptive part of his game, as he routinely has a 15-20 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup. Another benefit that Hildenberger brings to the Twins bullpen is his effectiveness against both righties and lefties. This could be a key factor in a bullpen whose top three pitchers are all right-handed.

 

LHP Zach Duke

 

From 2014-2016, Zach Duke made 226 relief appearances, the third most in the MLB over that time. However, after the 2016 season, Duke underwent Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss most of 2017. When he did return, Duke looked like a completely different reliever. While he was still effective (a 3.93 ERA over 18.1 innings) his strikeout rate dropped from the 10.4 K/9 it was at from 2014-2016, down to 5.9 K/9. Some of this may be due to a small sample size, but it is something to keep an eye on this year.

 

LHP Taylor Rogers

 

After a decent rookie season in 2016, Rogers followed it up with a strong year in 2017. His 3.07 ERA ranked first among qualified relievers on the Twins last season. However, there were a couple areas of concern for Rogers in 2017. The first was his strikeout rate dropping by nearly 1.5 K/9 (down to 7.92), and the second was his walk rate rising by more than 1 BB/9 (up to 3.40). Rogers will need to see improvement in these numbers if he wants to keep building off the success he had last season.

 

RHP Ryan Pressly

 

Ryan Pressly was hit hard by the homer bug last year, giving up 10 in just 61.1 innings pitched. This lead to his spiked 4.70 ERA. However, Ryan Pressly is being pegged for a bounce back season in 2018, even more so by the projection systems than myself. A big reason for this was his HR/FB% in 2017 was double that of his career average entering the season. Part of this may have been influenced by the league-wide home run surge, but Pressly seemed to be hit especially hard by it. Look for that to regress in 2018, and as a result an improved season from Pressly.

 

RHP Tyler Duffey

 

In 2017, Tyler Duffey mad the transition from the rotation to the bullpen where for the most part he was successful. His 4.94 ERA was largely inflated because of five bad outings, when he gave up a combined 17 earned runs over just 3.1 innings. In Duffey’s 51 other outings, he combined for a 2.93 ERA across 67.2 innings. Given the added depth to the pitching staff in 2018, Duffey has been demoted back down to Rochester, where he will have the opportunity to work out the kinks that led to his bad outings last year.

 

RHP Alan Busenitz

Download attachment: Alan Busenitz 2018 Projections.PNG

Alan Busenitz had a strong rookie debut for the Twins last season and turned out to be one of Molitor’s most trusted arms out of the bullpen down the stretch. However, Busenitz is another pitcher who fell victim to the added depth in the bullpen and was optioned to AAA. One big area of concern for Busenitz was the fact that his strong 1.99 ERA was propped up on his 86.6 left-on-base percentage, which is a nearly unsustainable number for a pitcher with just a 6.54 K/9.

 

LHP Gabriel Moya

 

Gabriel Moya was having a lights-out season for AA Jackson (Diamondbacks) last season, which sparked the Twins interest in parting ways with John Ryan Murphy to acquire him. As a part of the Twins organization Moya’s success continued, and he earned a call up straight from AA, after putting up a microscopic 0.77 ERA, along with 13.4 K/9 and just 2.3 BB/9 over 58.1 innings. With Phil Hughes beginning the season on the DL, Moya will get another opportunity in the Twins bullpen to start the year.

 

RHP Tyler Kinley

 

The Rule 5 selection of Tyler Kinley left many people scratching their heads, especially since the Twins exposed Nick Burdi and Luke Bard to the draft in the process. Kinley has a fastball that can touch triple-digits, but he doesn’t seem to know which direction the ball will go. The Twins are hoping Kinley can build off the success he had in the Dominican Winter League, where he gave up just 1 run over 19 innings. Kinley was in a battle with Moya for the final roster spot, until today when Hughes got hurt, opening the door for both pitchers.

 

RHP Trevor May

 

Trevor May’s 2017 ended before it even started after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March. Trevor is targeting a return in either late May or early June. While many have hopes of Trevor returning to the rotation once he is healthy, I do not see that happening. He will most likely fit into the bullpen, where the team will likely put a strict innings limit on him.

 

RHP John Curtiss

 

John Curtiss made his major league debut for the Twins last season, and it is safe to say that it did not go as planned for him (8.31 ERA over 8.2 innings). While this wasn’t good it is hard to take anything substantial out of such a small sample. Before his call up, Curtiss was one of Minnesota’s most effective minor league relievers in both AA and AAA. The big question for Curtiss will be his ability to control the strike zone. If he can figure that out he has the potential to be a back-end of the bullpen arm for the Twins.

 

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[Rosterman]

Happily there are options so the Twins CAN run a shuttle between Rochester and Minnesota, depending on the overall effectiveness of the relief corps, without having any 40-man roster troubles.

 

You have to pitch Rodney to see if he can be you best (for now) option as closer and keep worth as a possible tradechip, especially when you have someone that CAN take his place.

 

You could say the Twins do have an embarrassment of riches, especially if you look at a number of names NOT on the 40-man who won't get a shot in 2018 unless some bodies move out of the bullpen (and roster).

[bdodge22]

I can see the situation where Rodney is a terrific failure and the Twins have to move him out of the Closer spot. IF that is the case who would get moved into the closer role? Reed should stay as the high leverage swing man. I don't see a great option to move into that closer role, Kinley? Pressly? probably too wild. Do you put a former closer there, Curtiss? Moya in his first taste of the bigs? No good answer for me.

[h2oface]

"Fernando Rodney got off to a terrible start in 2017, with a 12.60 ERA through the month of April. However, after April, Rodney was lights out with a 2.38 ERA and a .442 OPS against. This was a driving factor in the Twins giving the 41-year-old an opportunity to be their closer for 2018."

 

Seems the same might be happening for 2018 to start the season. Keeping him in extended spring training, to use up the crud for a month, seems it would be a unique and smart move.

[adorduan]

wow, all those projection sites think our bullpen is going to suck...

[Thrylos]

Eyeballing those, looks like about 9 K/9 from the pen this season.  Not bad.  If it happens.

[ashbury]

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the ZIPS projection for Busenitz's WHIP isn't actually 7.16.

[Andrew Thares]

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the ZIPS projection for Busenitz's WHIP isn't actually 7.16.

Good catch, we updated this now to correct the error.