Article: BAL 3, MIN 2: Opening D’oh!

[Tom Froemming]

 

One thing I disagree with that I am seeing everywhere is Duke being labeled a lefty specialist.  Yes, he does better against lefties, but have you seen his numbers against righties as a relief pitcher?

 

.236/.328/.379 are his career numbers, but from 2014 - 2017 he held right handed batters to .221/.322/.353 with a 9.8 K/9.  Not dominant, but pretty good and good enough to not be labeled a lefty specialist.

 

Copy/paste:

 

Since moving to relief in 2012, Duke had a .273 wOBA vs LHP, and a .301 wOBA vs RHB. 2.66 FIP vs LHB, 4.10 FIP vs RHB.

 

I'd certainly use him primarily as a lefty specialist, especially if you have seven other relievers at your disposal, but you're right in that it's not like he's been a complete train wreck against RHH.

[Dantes929]

 

It is one game. But this idea of the team heroically coming back to tie is so "homerish"! It's almost impossible not to score with a kicked ground ball. (Single, lmao) two walks, and a ball hit so poorly the OF can't get to it. Yes, sometime you come back, strike the ball well, and run the bases well. But this wasn't one of them. Baltimore scored two runs for the Twins. And frankly Baltimore didn't exactly shine either. Someone said earlier that you can play well and still lose. You can also play poorly, and still win. .

I'm the one that said it and I agree with you completely.    A team playing poorly can beat a team playing well in a game though if you do the flow chart it is the least likely of outcomes.    It still happens and maybe this game was one of those.   I didn't see it so really can't judge.    I'm just not a big fan of results only analysis.     For example, I think the complaint about leaving Duke in is a valid one, all things considered but how many would be commenting on it if he had gotten out of the inning instead of giving up two runs?    I might not agree with the guy that criticized Molitor for pinch hitting Grosman for Buxton but I respect it because he said it in spite of the fact that the move was successful.   Its kind of like when Bert says a pitcher did well except for one mistake where the batter hit a home run.    The guy might have thrown 20 pitches just like it or worse so is it really a mistake if the batter just happened to connect on one?

[Doubles]

Regarding bullpen use:  teams go into each game with a blueprint for how they are going to manage their relievers that day.  Among other things, the plan is dictated by recent usage / availability of the relievers, the opponent's lineup, the opponent's bench options, and recent usage thereof.  Now, there are things that can affect the plan like injuries, extra-innings, etc.  This allows the relievers to be prepared to the extent possible that they may be pitching each day.  Many of the bullpen decisions managers make in-game are actually pre-determined, or at least thought-out, well before each situation arises within the course of a game.  There are definitely some, but probably not quite as many ‘spur-of-the-moment’ decisions made in-game as we may sometimes think.

[USAFChief]

Regarding bullpen use: teams go into each game with a blueprint for how they are going to manage their relievers that day. Among other things, the plan is dictated by recent usage / availability of the relievers, the opponent's lineup, the opponent's bench options, and recent usage thereof. Now, there are things that can affect the plan like injuries, extra-innings, etc. This allows the relievers to be prepared to the extent possible that they may be pitching each day. Many of the bullpen decisions managers make in-game are actually pre-determined, or at least thought-out, well before each situation arises within the course of a game. There are definitely some, but probably not quite as many ‘spur-of-the-moment’ decisions made in-game as we may sometimes think.

In game 1, with an off day following and an off day prior?

 

Your point is well taken, but not in yesterday's game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

One thing I disagree with that I am seeing everywhere is Duke being labeled a lefty specialist.  Yes, he does better against lefties, but have you seen his numbers against righties as a relief pitcher?

 

.236/.328/.379 are his career numbers, but from 2014 - 2017 he held right handed batters to .221/.322/.353 with a 9.8 K/9.  Not dominant, but pretty good and good enough to not be labeled a lefty specialist.

I didn't label him a specialist, but note that Duke averaged well below an inning per appearance each of the last 4 years, and he only faced 56% RHB during that time (versus, for example, 65% for Taylor Rogers last year). That suggests Duke's usage had tended towards specialist, and his results vs RHB should be viewed in that light (he's probably not facing many good RHB, although Caleb Joseph isn't a good one either but with 20+ pitches and the go-ahead run at second, that threshold is lowered considerably).

[Dantes929]

 

In game 1, with an off day following and an off day prior?

Your point is well taken, but not in yesterday's game.

Before Duke gave up the triple he had struck out three guys and gave up one intentional walk.  After the triple he got his 4th strikeout.    I tend to agree that a switch for Reed would have been reasonable but you know darn well that if Reed had come in and given up a 3 run homer there would be plenty of posters complaining about how Molitor was over managing and should have left Duke in because he had just struck out 3 guys and the only other guy that got on was intentionally walked (all right handed hitters I believe).   I would be firmly in your camp if he had given up two hits or a couple unintentional walks.     Leaving a guy in that no one has even put a ball in play against is defensible.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Play like that, and you'll win more often than you lose. 

No you won't. You'll lose 3 to 2 every time.

[Taildragger8791]

Overall it was a rusty but well-fought game by our guys. I didn't see too many things that concerned me, and I saw enough good things to believe they'll eventually be solid. Having to pinch hit for Buxton isn't a good sign, but hopefully he and Sano get their heads screwed on straight quickly.

 

One thought on the lineup: I know the best hitters are being pushed to the front of the order these days but I'm not sure it makes sense to have a potential 250-strikeout guy in the 3-hole. Sano is a "3 true outcomes" type right now, and that sounds much more like a prototypical cleanup or #5 guy to me. At a minimum I'd want to swap him and Rosario. With the depth of talented hitters on this team, there could be a point this season where Buxton and LoMo surpass him If he doesn't show progress in that department.

[Mike Sixel]

The math shows your cleanup hitter should be a better hitter than your number three hitter, by a very soon margin. This is do, I believe, to the first inning only.

 

I don't think it was all that well fought... They really didn't hit at all. Again, I'm ok with the other team outplaying them, so I'm not worried, but I don't agree they played all that well

[Taildragger8791]

 

The math shows your cleanup hitter should be a better hitter than your number three hitter, by a very soon margin. This is do, I believe, to the first inning only.

I don't think it was all that well fought... They really didn't hit at all. Again, I'm ok with the other team outplaying them, so I'm not worried, but I don't agree they played all that well

 

That's fair. If it wasn't for Mauer/Morrison/Rosario all being lefties I'd be in favor of swapping Sano for LoMo, assuming LoMo can continue his 2017 production. I just hate seeing the 3 hitter regularly swing through in-zone strikes and flail at bendy stuff.

 

I think the hitting will come around soon but it's going to be a frustrating April if Sano, Buxton, and Dozier start slow. I was encouraged by Odorizzi and Reed, and Duke was decent. If Castro blocks that pitch it really changes way the complexion of the game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Before Duke gave up the triple he had struck out three guys and gave up one intentional walk.  After the triple he got his 4th strikeout.    I tend to agree that a switch for Reed would have been reasonable but you know darn well that if Reed had come in and given up a 3 run homer there would be plenty of posters complaining about how Molitor was over managing and should have left Duke in because he had just struck out 3 guys and the only other guy that got on was intentionally walked (all right handed hitters I believe).   I would be firmly in your camp if he had given up two hits or a couple unintentional walks.     Leaving a guy in that no one has even put a ball in play against is defensible.

Here are Duke's average pitches per appearance the last 4 years:

 

2017: 10.2

2016: 12.5

2015: 14.8

2014: 13.2

 

He was at 16 pitches before the triple. I think I'm comfortable pulling that guy when he's already logged 16 pitches and he's facing a RHB with the go-ahead run in scoring position in the bottom of the 7th.

 

There's a reason that Duke has averaged less than a inning per appearance each of the last 4 seasons. No reason to make him complete an inning on opening day, with a rested pen and abundant off days.

[Dantes929]

 

Here are Duke's average pitches per appearance the last 4 years:

 

2017: 10.2

2016: 12.5

2015: 14.8

2014: 13.2

 

He was at 16 pitches before the triple. I think I'm comfortable pulling that guy when he's already logged 16 pitches and he's facing a RHB with the go-ahead run in scoring position in the bottom of the 7th.

 

There's a reason that Duke has averaged less than a inning per appearance each of the last 4 seasons. No reason to make him complete an inning on opening day, with a rested pen and abundant off days.

Yeah, in general I get it and when I first saw the box score I thought he should have been pulled but then I saw  they hadn't touched him.  He struck out all three guys he actually faced.   I would be comfortable if he had been pulled as well but have I said this before.... he struck out all three guys he faced before that.    Plus he struck out Davis   after the triple and no one seems to have a problem with that.   I don't know how meaningful it is that he averages less than an inning if he is a one inning guy that also sometimes comes in mid inning which will also reduce his pitch per inning.    It was a bad pitch that gave up the triple.   Was it caused by fatigue or was it just a bad pitch?  

[yarnivek1972]

The Diamondbacks found a formula to get a very good season out of this guy as a 40-year-old. I'd think it would be wise to try and replicate his usage as best as possible. It's not ideal to be handcuffed into such a limited role, but I think that's putting him in the best position to be successful.

 

I wouldn't have opened the 10th with Hildenberger in the first place, he had already warmed up earlier in the game. Why not let that be Rodney's inning? Or when Hildy needed to be bailed out, go to one of the four other relievers available and have Rodney pitch the 11th.

 

Why carry all those guys if you're not going to use them? They're only playing six games over the next nine days. To have that deep of a bullpen and not dip into it is crazy to me.

If the Twins don’t intend to use Rodney ever for a second inning, he shouldn’t have been brought in for the 10th. Once you bring your closer into a tie game on the road, the general rule is to stick with him as long as possible. That’s why a closer rarely comes into a tie game on the road. I think Molitor was caught off guard by Hildenberger’s ineffectiveness. Otherwise, Pressly would have been warming. Rodney had already warmed up so he was able to come in right away.

 

So, let’s place some blame on Hildenberger for pitching poorly too to force Molitor into that move.

 

Of course, pitching wasn’t why the Twins lost yesterday. Terrible hitting was.

[TFRazor]

Did we just lose the World Series? Because the way I'm reading some of this, we just lost the World Series. Chillax people. It's game number 1.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Plus he struck out Davis after the triple and no one seems to have a problem with that.

Davis is a LHB. If you are going to have him face the RHB, it would be nonsensical to pull him before Davis. Still doesn't mean it was right to use him for the RHB.

 

I don't know how meaningful it is that he averages less than an inning if he is a one inning guy that also sometimes comes in mid inning which will also reduce his pitch per inning.

The meaning is, he is a specialist. He isn't generally used to pitch a full inning. No shame in pulling him before he completes a full inning, if his specialized task is complete.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did we just lose the World Series? Because the way I'm reading some of this, we just lost the World Series. Chillax people. It's game number 1.

The thread seems pretty reasonable to me.

[h2oface]

 

Duke did exactly what he's supposed to do...throw pitches that appear to be in the zone then dart out of it for swinging strikes

 

Castro's job is to block swing and miss strikes in the dirt

 

If Duke throws the ball in the zone bad things happen...like two run triples to a guy who was way overmatched by mediocre fastballs up in the zone

 

While I agree that Castro should have caught/blocked the "wild pitch" that let the strikeout become a base runner, throwing meat to the nine hole batter that became the triple, extra batter or not, was all Duke!

[TFRazor]

 

The thread seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

Never claimed anyone was being unreasonable. Was simply saying relax. It's only game 1.

Edited March 31, 2018 by TFRazor

[Platoon]

Never claimed anyone was being unreasonable. Was simply saying relax. It's only game 1.

It is game one, game two is today. But game one had a considerable amount of wide open easy to analyze (second guess) managerial decisions. Thats what separates baseball from other sports.

[USAFChief]

It is game one, game two is today. But game one had a considerable amount of wide open easy to analyze (second guess) managerial decisions. Thats what separates baseball from other sports.

It also fell into the third category of the old “ you will win X games, lose X games, and the remaining X decide the season” saw.

 

It was a winnable game, which means decisions and individual plays mattered and are subject to debate. It also means we’re 0-1 in that critical third category.