Article: REPORT: Dozier Extension Talks Die

[Cody Christie]

There is plenty of hope at the dawning of a new season. Every team starts with an equal playing field. No batters have struck out. Pitchers have a perfect ERA. There are 162 games to separate the contenders from the pretenders. It’s an exciting time for every fan.

 

The beginning of a new season also means players want to focus on the season. A lot of players and agents don’t want to be bogged down in contract negotiations. For Brian Dozier and the Minnesota Twins, this seems like the situation they are facing.Jerry Crasnick, one of ESPN’s national baseball writers, is reporting that contract talks between Brian Dozier and the Minnesota Twins have come to a halt.

For those following the Twins this spring, it seemed like Dozier was destined for free agency. When he signed his current contract with Minnesota, the deal only bought out his remaining arbitration eligible seasons. For Dozier, it provided him some financial stability. At the same time, it allowed the Twins to have some cost certainty.

 

Dozier and his agency took a gamble on Dozier being able to produce in his late 20s to set him up for free agency for his age-32 season. This is typically the time when players start to decline but Dozier has been one of the best hitting second basemen over the last two seasons. Barring an injury, Dozier might be headed for a big pay day.

 

Next year’s free agent class looks stacked. Dozier will join a free agent class including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Charlie Blackmon, Andrew Miller, Daniel Murphy, Cody Allen, Adam Jones, and Andrew McCutchen. Other players like Clayton Kershaw and David Price could be free agents if they opt out of their current contracts.

 

After this year’s cool free agent market, it will be interesting to see how much money will be thrown around next season. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado could get record-breaking deals. Heck, Harper could be headed for the richest contract of all time. For teams that miss out on the top tier free agents, there will be other options like Dozier waiting in the wings.

 

As I wrote about this spring, Minnesota has a multiple top prospects in the middle infield. Nick Gordon will be knocking on the door of the big leagues this season. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Wander Javier also play up the middle. If Dozier signs with another organization, one of these players could take over at second base next year.

 

What are your thoughts on a possible Dozier extension? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Tommygun921]

I thought negotiations we're done a month ago or more? I think waiting will be better for the Twins. He'll have more motivation than ever this year. Contract year and playing on most likely his best team in the majors. I see him (And Mauer) having a monster year this year. Should be a fun summer.

[Thrylos]

Déjà vu all over again.

[mudcat14]

I think it's wise to let him reach Free Agency.  If they decide they want him beyond this year after the season, I doubt his value will increase greatly.  With our impending middle infield depth, it's worth the gamble.

 

[bobs]

I do think they try to bring him back. Let the market set his value and then see what they want to do. If he wants more than 2-3 yrs though, I'd guess he's gone

[Winston Smith]

Good plan. At his age and with the big group of good free agents next winter no reason to over pay now. Saying overpay because I think he would want a decent number of money and years to sign now. I don't really see a strong 2B market next winter when you see what Neil Walker got this winter.

[Vanimal46]

No surprise. He should be motivated to have a career year.

 

I'll be pretty disappointed if the Twins let him walk. There's several good to great 2B who maintained their value well into their mid-30s.

[Squirrel]

So, if talks are 'dead' ... does that mean that there were some talks prior to opening day, or that there never were and now there won't be?

[spanman2]

I have said this before...truly believe the days of 5+ year deals being handed out like candy to players in his age range at a parade are over.  Not saying he won't get someone to bite but I bet that is the type of deal he is looking for.  Max the Twins will offer IMO if they do offer is 3 years.  I anticipate a great year from Doz.  Here is to hoping it happens.  He will be paid well somewhere for certain.  Win Twins!

[Vanimal46]

So, if talks are 'dead' ... does that mean that there were some talks prior to opening day, or that there never were and now there won't be?

Yes.

 

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

Yes.

Lol ... I figured someone would do that.

[Yossarian]

Good player, but if the market is ready to overpay, then we have capable prospects and will be able to use that money elsewhere.  Wish Doz all the luck.

[stringer bell]

I've thought this for years:   Is Brian Dozier a Dan Uggla or a Jeff Kent? If he is another Jeff Kent, he's going to be valuable for a long time, if he falls off a cliff like Uggla, maybe letting him go before his age 32 season is a pretty good plan.

[Drew]

 

I've thought this for years:   Is Brian Dozier a Dan Uggla or a Jeff Kent? If he is another Jeff Kent, he's going to be valuable for a long time, if he falls off a cliff like Uggla, maybe letting him go before his age 32 season is a pretty good plan.

Holy crap, Jeff Kent hit 239 HR from his age-31 season and onwards. 

[gocgo]

I like the guy.  My kid has his autograph on a baseball, so selfishly, I want him to stay a Twin.  I don't trust Polanco or anyone on the farm as the guy to jack 30+ dingers, so replacing that offensive output isn't something that will be easy to do...but baseball is a business and the logical side of me knows that it makes no sense to extend him for more that 2 years max and pay him a lot of money that could go toward another resource.  I would think that most professionals like Dozier understand this.  I wish him luck in free agency.  I think he's from Georgia, so I hope that Atlanta pays him a pile of money to go play in the NL so we don't have to face him!

[Rosterman]

Either Dozier isn't just that GREAT, or he is vastly undervalued. Considering the Twins couldn't trade him for anything of significance.

 

Of course, the Twins were hoping to see some stability in a great start of the year for Polanco, which isn't existing. When they take a look at Gordon is the next qustion. And the fate of Escobar as he heads into free agency himself is the bigger question.

 

We don't know the type of monies either side might be throwing out or thinking about. And that is the Big Question. 2-3 years with an option. Two good years with an option? Is he worth $10 million a year? Someone said the Twins could always make a qualifying offer, but that is pushing Dozier towards Joe Mauer territory.

 

Is the team still cheap? Sure, they dangled more than $100 million to Davish, or so we were told. But they basically got GREAT deals on solid players, smart front office, rather than overpaying for competent players, like the front office of past.

 

Dozier COULD be a trade chip if the team goes south. If they do go south, then it is more of a chance that they don't spend monies like this year. But...time will tell.

 

I always felt Dozier would be a decent addition to the team for a few seasons, either transitioning into the Mauer replacement for a season at first, or being a designated hitter who can play a few positions in the field, value in its own way. He still has power, has speed.

 

But I do wish they started the season with Buxton leading off, Dozier hitting 3rd, Morrison or Sano sharing 4th/5th.

[mikelink45]

Why would Dozier sign now.  If they wanted him, last year was the right time, now he has the right to be a FA and the Twins can now say to angry fans - we tried.

[slash129]

This is so last month. Why even keep writing additional pieces about it?

[Brandon]

I would like Dozier to stay. He has the Chance to be an all time Twins great. He could hit between 300 and 400 HRs for his career and be 2nd on the franchise list. While players dont spend their whole career with one team anymore we fans still like some continuity on the team too.

[Brandon]

Also next offseason both LA teams will be in the market for a second baseman. Will be hard to keep costs down when the two financial power house teams are needing a second baseman.

[yarnivek1972]

Also next offseason both LA teams will be in the market for a second baseman. Will be hard to keep costs down when the two financial power house teams are needing a second baseman.

 

Maybe not if one (or both) trade for an upgrade midseason.

[PDX Twin]

With all the blue-chip FAs next season, it's hard for me to see Dozier getting the super payday he seeks. I see him as more of a mauve chip, or perhaps a pale azure chip in comparison. It wouldn't totally surprise me if he goes on the market, finds that the big-market teams are all spent-out chasing the Harpers and Machados, and decides that a reasonable offer to stay put with a young, competitive team is pretty attractive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing to consider is that the Twins have as much or more leverage in seven months than they do today.

 

Thanks, qualifying offer.

 

And they get to minimize risk of Dozier collapsing during the 2018 season and being on the hook for four more years of his service.

 

Like I've said a bunch of times, I just don't see the reason to discuss an extension today. There are multiple pieces in play and the front office will have a much better idea of how to proceed in November.

[ewen21]

 

Either Dozier isn't just that GREAT, or he is vastly undervalued. Considering the Twins couldn't trade him for anything of significance.

 

Of course, the Twins were hoping to see some stability in a great start of the year for Polanco, which isn't existing. When they take a look at Gordon is the next qustion. And the fate of Escobar as he heads into free agency himself is the bigger question.

 

We don't know the type of monies either side might be throwing out or thinking about. And that is the Big Question. 2-3 years with an option. Two good years with an option? Is he worth $10 million a year? Someone said the Twins could always make a qualifying offer, but that is pushing Dozier towards Joe Mauer territory.

 

Is the team still cheap? Sure, they dangled more than $100 million to Davish, or so we were told. But they basically got GREAT deals on solid players, smart front office, rather than overpaying for competent players, like the front office of past.

 

Dozier COULD be a trade chip if the team goes south. If they do go south, then it is more of a chance that they don't spend monies like this year. But...time will tell.

 

I always felt Dozier would be a decent addition to the team for a few seasons, either transitioning into the Mauer replacement for a season at first, or being a designated hitter who can play a few positions in the field, value in its own way. He still has power, has speed.

 

But I do wish they started the season with Buxton leading off, Dozier hitting 3rd, Morrison or Sano sharing 4th/5th.

It comes down to his age, really.  He is turning 32.  Is it smart to give a 32 year old player who isn't actually a superstar a multiyear deal because he is a good guy and fans are used to him?

 

I don't see Dozier as being the player he was the last few years for very much longer.  Players like Jeff Kent are the rare exception.  Dozier isn't some guy on a HOF trajectory.  He hit a mess of home runs for a few years.  Chase Utley did as well, but his production tailed off in a big way when he got the age where Dozier will be next year.

 

These guys did an analysis and found that a whole lot of second baseman (and other players) have dips in production in these years.  It is inevitable.  They don't want to pay the guy for being the player he was as opposed to the player he will be.  Dozier seems to want a reward for being the player he was.

 

Sorry dude.  Goodbye

[HitInAPinch]

Twins options on a Dozier trade are probably less than last year.  The other problem is Polanco's suspension.  

 

Trade Dozier now and take whatever you can get?  And to coin a phrase:  

 

What's on second! 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

With all the blue-chip FAs next season, it's hard for me to see Dozier getting the super payday he seeks. I see him as more of a mauve chip, or perhaps a pale azure chip in comparison. It wouldn't totally surprise me if he goes on the market, finds that the big-market teams are all spent-out chasing the Harpers and Machados, and decides that a reasonable offer to stay put with a young, competitive team is pretty attractive.

 

It will be supply and demand. I seem to remember the Yankees being kind of weak at 2nd as well. If Dozier is the only blue chipper out there, he's going to get a nice offer. 

 

As for the report, yes, this is odd. I didn't know they were in talks given that Dozier wanted to be a FA... That was his way of saying wow me or let me try FA. In his case, with Gordon in the pipeline and Polanco under contract, at best we will only need him for another year. He's right in wanting something more than that. He's going to get a QO from us unless something really bad happens. That's probably the best possible place the Twins can be in. Dozier can gage the market and decide if he wants to accept it or not.

[jimmer]

Neil Walker is a fine 2B and Torres is pretty much ready.  He'll likely be in NY this year and certainly by next year where he'll take over SS with Didi moving to 2B or Torres will switch to 2B.

 

Either way, they won't want or need Dozier.

[ND-Fan]

I believe this Dozier last year in Minnesota with this regime in place. He will be 32 years old and by all analytical people they will not pay for aging player no matter what his current numbers are. The Twins are so deep with talent coming up at second and short stop that signing Mauer just slows flow of these players to the major league club. Only way I see him staying with the Twins is they should trade Sano for a major pitcher this year later and he's willing to move from second to third base then they might sign him to contract but I find this scenario highly unlikely. I am getting to think what were going to see is that players over 31 years old are only be signed 1, 2 and 3 year contracts and after that it will be done one year contracts or minor league contract each year. That is why I am getting certain that were heading for nasty labor dispute at end of this current labor agreement. The Mauer contract will be thing of past unless labor agreement changes. Mauer contract he has been over paid last several years of the contract but it was paying for the bargain he was in his early part of his career. Owners and new management groups have gotten away from that forgetting this was unwritten rule between labor and ownership  where they paid for early part of their careers with longterm later contract. This way baseball had lower costs to develop these players and didn't have to put up money for unproven players. This will be labor dispute now in the future players will want to be paid when they are young and productive so there will be very little time controlled by ownership in the future. So enjoy few years of labor free fights because the next one will be like we had back in early 90's.

[beckmt]

The top tier of players will be paid this offseason, but it will neither be deep or many players per club as the luxury tax issues will start to reign in spending way over the cap.  

I agree with ND-fan that the players are already unhappy and a few big contracts with the rest of the over 30 crowd getting a max of 3 year contracts.  The main reason the top players will get paid is the bulk of them are 30 and under. Teams are learning that steroids had a big effect in players performing well into their late thirties and we are back to the older models of most major league players being done between 32 and 35.

I also wrote a piece a while back expecting a strike or a very difficult discussion after the 2021 season. Enjoy the next few seasons as I expect a strike in 2022.  Players have 4 years to prepare for this, so the smart ones will have more than enough money to last through this.  The players hurt will be the 0 - 3 year players who will not have time to put money away.

I do not know if I would even offer a QO depending on what I think of Gordon.  Too much a chance that an FA like Dozier may take it.  

[alskntwnsfn]

The Twins are in a good position with Dozier. No reason to extend him now. Make a QO this offseason and they’ll be able to beat most offfers because teams will be hesitant to give up a draft pick. I do hope we can keep him though.