Article: Twins at Orioles Series Preview

[Andrew Thares]

The Twins are opening the 2018 season with a five-game road trip starting in Baltimore on Thursday. Last season the Twins went 5-2 against the Orioles, including sweeping a three-game series in Baltimore. It is imperative that the Twins get off to a fast start to begin the season, with a few easier opponents on the schedule, before a very important extended home stand next week, when they face Wild Card contender Seattle, the defending World Series Champion Astros and have their first series of the year against Cleveland.Series at a Glance:

Download attachment: Baltimore Series at a Glance 3-29-2018.PNG *Win Odds from FiveThirtyEight

 

Minnesota Twins

 

The 2018 Minnesota Twins are looking to build off the turnaround season they had in 2017. With a young core of position players, and a revamped pitching staff, many expect that the Twins will be a contender again this year.

 

Probable Starting Pitchers

 

RHP Jake Odorizzi

 

After much was made about a potential Twins and Rays trade involving Chris Archer, the two ended up agreeing on a deal that sent Jake Odorizzi to the Twins. The soon- to-be 28-year old has been a productive pitcher over the past four seasons in Tampa, posting a 3.81 ERA over 668.1 innings in that time.

 

RHP Kyle Gibson

 

With the injury to Ervin Santana, and the late start of Lance Lynn’s spring, Kyle Gibson slides into the third spot in the Twins rotation to start the season. Gibson is looking to build off his strong finish to 2017, when he had a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts.

 

RHP Jose Berrios

 

After struggling in his rookie campaign, Berrios did well adjusting to big league hitters in 2017. In an organization that has been starved for a front of the rotation ace since the days of Johan Santana, Berrios showed signs that he has what it takes to fill that role for the Twins for years to come.

 

Baltimore Orioles

 

After having the best record in the American League from 2012-2016, the Baltimore Orioles enter 2018 at what appears to be the end of their window of contention. 2017 was a disappointing season for Baltimore, finishing the season with just 75 wins, after they were favored by many to be a Wild Card contender.

 

Probable Starting Pitchers

 

RHP Dylan Bundy

Download attachment: Dylan Bundy 3-29-2018.PNG

 

Dylan Bundy is coming off what was just his first full season as a starter in the major leagues. Even though Bundy is a player who has been hyped up for what feels like forever, he will only be in his age-25 season in 2018. Much like Gausman, Bundy is a pitcher with electric stuff who hasn’t quite put it all together. Last season, Bundy had one good start and one bad start against the Twins. In those two starts, Bundy gave up eight runs, with seven strikeouts and five walks over 12 innings.

 

RHP Andrew Cashner

Download attachment: Andrew Cashner 3-31-2018.PNG

 

Andrew Cashner may have put together the most unorthodox good season in recent memory. If Cashner had had this season a decade ago, he would have been viewed as a big name free agent heading into this offseason. Unfortunately for Cashner, in the modern era, MLB teams looked right through his 3.40 ERA, and saw his terrible peripheral numbers. This led him to signing just a two-year, $16M deal with Baltimore. In 2017, as a member of the Texas Rangers, Cashner made one start against the Twins, going four innings, giving up two runs with three strikeouts and six walks.

 

RHP Kevin Gausman

Download attachment: Kevin Gausman 4-1-2018.PNG

 

Kevin Gausman had struggles with controlling the strike zone last year, as his 8.7% walk rate was the highest of his career. If he can get this dialed back in, Gausman has the stuff to be a top-30 starter in baseball. In 2017, Gausman made one start against the Twins, where he went four innings, giving up six runs (five earned) with seven strikeouts and no walks.

 

Players to Watch

 

Manny Machado, SS

 

2017 was a bit of a down year of Manny Machado offensively. Among the 22 qualified third basemen last season, Machado’s 102 wRC+ ranked just 18th. In 2018, Machado plans to make the move back to shortstop, his natural position, where he will be able to take full advantage of his defensive abilities.

 

Jonathan Schoop, 2B

 

Last year was a breakout season for Jonathan Schoop, as he notched his first career All-Star appearance. In what was his fourth full season in the bigs, Schoop slugged 32 home runs, to go along with an .841 OPS and a .355 wOBA. This, along with slightly above-average defense at second base, resulted in Schoop finishing 12th in the AL MVP voting.

 

Trey Mancini, LF

 

After tearing up minor league pitching on his way to the majors, 2017 was more of the same for Trey Mancini during his rookie campaign. Over the course of 147 games, Mancini had 24 home runs and a slash line of .293/.338/.488. However, due to Aaron Judge’s historic rookie year, Mancini fell a little under the radar when it came to his strong rookie season.

 

Bullpen Comparison

 

Download attachment: Orioles Bullpen Comparison 3-29-2018.PNG

(2017 Stats) *Reflects Minor League Stats

 

The Twins made it a priority to shore up their bullpen this winter with additions of Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke. While they still lack a true relief ace, the bullpen has a lot more stability from top to bottom, which will give Paul Molitor plenty of options to mix and match late in games.

 

The Orioles bullpen suffered a big setback when their star closer Zach Britton ruptured his Achilles in December. The Orioles may have lost their go-to shutdown reliever, but they still feature a solid group of pitchers in the pen. This may very well come into play in the series if their starters are unable to pitch deep into the ballgame.

 

Zone Charts courtesy of baseballsavant.com

 

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[mikelink45]

Like the Twins - the Orioles swept up inexpensive and surprising free agents to fill out their rotation and they have the master manager - the best in the majors from my perspective and thus they will continue to challenge the odds. 

[TFRazor]

I think it's going to be interesting to watch Odorizzi in the opener as he is quite used to pitching against the Orioles and I want to see our offense explode right out of the gate. It's Opening Day. The best day of the year.

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