Article: High Expectations: Are The Twins In Win Now Mode?

[bean5302]

I think the Twins are in the very same mode they've been in for most of the past 2 decades. Be competitive, but very risk averse. This is a team which is solidly in the mid-market arena from a revenue potential standpoint, but with the risk aversion a small market team exhibits.

 

I think the Twins' general approach has been, try to field a competitive team and hope some magic happens, and I think the mentality is driven by ownership far more than the front office.

 

Sustained "competitive" teams are possible for a mid-market club. Sustained World Series contenders is not.

[Vanimal46]

The Twins' window isn't closing soon, but it's going to get more crowded. The Division isn't going to stay as relatively easy to win as it is right now. Cleveland should remain strong for a couple more years and the White Sox are probably only 1-2 years behind the Twins in the rebuild cycle. Just makes sense to go for it this season as hard as they can. Make the mid-season moves necessary to make a serious run in Sept-Oct.

Couldn't agree more. Take advantage of the situation given to them this season. It won't be long until Detroit and Chicago catch up.

[bighat]

Here's the deal: Dozier, Mauer, Morrison, Rodney and Lynn should be considered year-long rentals. These are the types of players the Twins will be trading for in 2019 and 2020 at the deadline. The fact that the Twins enter this year already HAVING these guys on the roster means that this team is uniquely positioned to make a serious run here in 2018. Of course, the young players are a bit greener than you'd like.

It'll be an interesting year. The Twins signed some big names this offseason for peanuts, essentially eliminating the need to trade for these guys in July. The 2018 Twins are a step ahead of every other contender in that regard.

[gocgo]

I think every team thinks they are in "win now" mode.  To me, the interesting part of this season revolves around the in division games.  There have been years in the past when the Twins were clearly not the superior team and yet won the in-division series.  The same could happen this year vs. the Pale Hose, Royals, and Tigers.  We need to win against those teams.  We can't afford to split the season series 9-9 or something like that.  We need to be more in the 12-6 range and then split or better with Cleveland.  Remember a number of years back when the Twins had some ridiculous interleague record?  Something like that could win the division....now!

[Mike Sixel]

By weighted WAR projections, the twins are not in the top ten for youngest position players, so I don't know about next decade... They better be in win now mode, ESan, Dozier, Mauer, Castro are not getting younger or signed for long.... Not to mention Morrison and Lynn.

Edited March 28, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Mike Sixel]

Here's the deal: Dozier, Mauer, Morrison, Rodney and Lynn should be considered year-long rentals. These are the types of players the Twins will be trading for in 2019 and 2020 at the deadline. The fact that the Twins enter this year already HAVING these guys on the roster means that this team is uniquely positioned to make a serious run here in 2018. Of course, the young players are a bit greener than you'd like.

It'll be an interesting year. The Twins signed some big names this offseason for peanuts, essentially eliminating the need to trade for these guys in July. The 2018 Twins are a step ahead of every other contender in that regard.

Other than Garver, who is really time in experience? How long would the outfielders have to be on rosters for you not to think of them as green? I don't think three years is all that green anymore

[Mike Sixel]

While I'm not against this idea, I'm not quite ready to jump in with both feet yet, either.

 

It really depends on a few things. How does the rest of the AL look in July? Are the Twins vying for the division (more likely to trade pieces for a run) or the Wild Card (less likely)?

 

The Twins still have a lot of control over their major pieces and they still have some interesting pieces in the upper minors. I'm not ready to start moving some of those pieces until I see what the team looks like mid-season.

Pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy, no? If you don't acquire better players, you won't get better results. The Sox are not far behind the Twins, have money coming off the books, and have spent much more in the past. How aligned would the stars have to be for you to go all in?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy, no? If you don't acquire better players, you won't get better results. The Sox are not far behind the Twins, have money coming off the books, and have spent much more in the past. How aligned would the stars have to be for you to go all in?

How is it a self fulfilling prophecy to wait until the next time you can trade players to evaluate and decide whether to trade players?

[TKGuy]

I will be disappointed if the Twins do not challenge for the division title this year. The FO has given the filed staff to do so. Our pitchers need to stay healthy though.

[Teflon]

The Twins' one-year $50 million windfall from the BAMTech sale to Disney gave them a one-year window to spend short-term on free agents. I doubt they intend to spend the same amount on payroll in 2019 or likewise pursue free agents.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

This might be an emotional statement as opposed to using sound logic: sign both Dozier and Mauer to new contracts.

[mikelink45]

 

This is likely Dozier's one and only shot at big money free agency. What makes you think he'll take a short extension? Back when he signed his current contract, he wouldn't allow the Twins to buy out even a single year of free agency.

 

Frankly, Dozier would have to be kinda insane to accept anything less than a four year extension right now.

No Dozier should not accept anything.  That is not my point, my issue is that there has been no offer of any kind from the FO for the last year or more.

[jimmer]

 

No Dozier should not accept anything.  That is not my point, my issue is that there has been no offer of any kind from the FO for the last year or more.

Reminds me of how Hunter was never offered an extension/new contract until like August of his last season with us.  That low ball offer did it's desired effect: Made some fans praise the FO efforts to keep him and turn on Hunter because he didn't sign with us.  It was a nothing offer compared to the market.  Add that to the fact he pushed for a new contract while the Twins did nothing to sign him before the last season made his choice the right one (for him not us).

Edited March 29, 2018 by jimmer

[Bill Brown69]

A few things

 

#1  I am convinced Jim is more of a baseball fan than Carl was, thus more willing to open the pocketbook to a degree,

 

#2 Being in the fray for a playoff berth increases the gate revenue but usually the 2nd year is when it gets really noticeable.

 

#3 I doubt that every FA that is on the list will walk at the end of the year with nothing other than the minor league guys to replace them.

 

#4 Falvey/Levine have proven to be pretty savvy at this game. Credit where credit is due.

 

#5 Money coming off the books is not an indicator of a 90-100 mil payroll next year.

 

#6 If number 2 is right then I expect one of the core to get signed to a massive extension before next year. That is my only beef right now is I wanted somebody signed by now. Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Keplar and Berrios all have question marks. Maybe they are using this year as a prove it year but I want AT LEAST 2 to not hit free agency at their first opportunity. Yes there is risk with every big deal and if you make the wrong decision you might (rightfully) be fired but that is what you sign up for by being a front office executive and why they get paid like they do.

 

Done deal! I want at least 6 playoff berths in the next 9 years, at least 1 of the core still here and no more than 1 season of under 75 wins. And if I was in the interview room when they interviewed that would have been put on the table as expectations. If you want the job convince me you can do it!

 

So far I am convinced but my glasses are a bit rose colored!

[Jordan1212]

Wow there is some serious negativity going on. When in our life time has the twins went out and actually signed a hand full of players that were actually good? Never!!! Look at 91 Jack Morris was old enough to be my Dad, umm 87 we traded for Steve Carlton and Don Baylor which were old enough to be my grandpa. You get my point here,,, we actually signed real players that can actually make our team better if they stay healthy. Lo Mo could be a great addition to a lineup that has very few weakness. That is awesome. Our opening day starter we got for free you might as well say. Addison Reed is a bona fide reliever without a doubt. Rodney can still strike people out and do better than Matt belisle let's just be real. Lance Lynn is without a question better than pipe dream be good Kyle Gibson. Yeah we're thin at ss but most teams there isn't 30 great ss. Yes we built this team to compete because Pohlad wants to win too. I don't look at it as a negative that most guys are on 1 year deals. I think it's a positive because this isn't like football where you can dump the guy next year cuz he stinks we get stuck with them for years i.e. Phil Hughes... I actually think it's smart because who's to say we can't go next year and play with the big boys we owe nobody next year that's awesome in my mind and it's actually intelligent. Yes did we build to win this year sure we did but what's wrong with that? So you might actually want to go to a game that's not just twins vs Yankees or red Sox. Might actually go to a game that's twins vs tigers because it will be fun to watch our lineup and our pitching instead of not going or not watching on tv.

[The Wise One]

 

It's impossible to say this team is primed for the future. Most of the players we know will be gone in one to two years. 

 

This is "win now" mode, Twins-style.

Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario make it so the position players are stable. You can add Adrianza, Grossman and Granite if you like. Wade and Rooker if you are optimistic. Mid to back of rotation starters always seem to be available as well as a bullpen. That being said Berrios isn't going anywhere. Names that we know that might not be gone include  Hildenberger, Moya, Odorizzi, Rogers as well as the promise of Curtis, Gonsalves,  Jorge, Mejia, Reed, Romero and some other pitcher I am blanking on. These are names that people should know.

[The Wise One]

 

This is likely Dozier's one and only shot at big money free agency. What makes you think he'll take a short extension? Back when he signed his current contract, he wouldn't allow the Twins to buy out even a single year of free agency.

 

Frankly, Dozier would have to be kinda insane to accept anything less than a four year extension right now.

 

This is likely Dozier's one and only shot at big money free agency. What makes you think he'll take a short extension? Back when he signed his current contract, he wouldn't allow the Twins to buy out even a single year of free agency.

 

Frankly, Dozier would have to be kinda insane to accept anything less than a four year extension right now.

How many position players got more than a 3 year deal last winter? Not many, and fewer every year.  How lucky would Dozier be to find an organization that wins, needs a 2b, and freely spends?

[Brock Beauchamp]

How many position players got more than a 3 year deal last winter? Not many, and fewer every year. How lucky would Dozier be to find an organization that wins, needs a 2b, and freely spends?

Youre assuming that the most bizarre offseason of the past two decades is the new standard going forward. That’s a huge assumption.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Most of the 1 year deals have replacements that should be able to prove themselves at some point this year. I don't think that this is too concerning personally. 

 

So to answer the question, yes, they are in win now mode... and yes, they have the core in place to win down the road as well. 

[The Wise One]

 

Youre assuming that the most bizarre offseason of the past two decades is the new standard going forward. That’s a huge assumption.

 

Youre assuming that the most bizarre offseason of the past two decades is the new standard going forward. That’s a huge assumption.

Not really. 2014  Sandoval, Hanly Ramirez,  Russel Martin, Yasmany Tomas,  V-Mart, Nelson Cruz,  Headley and Markasis all signed contracts for  four years or longer at 10 million a year or more.  What percentage of those contracts really worked out? Think that  maybe enough GMs got calls to take on  bad contracts they might grow a little cautious? 2015  Heyward, Davis, Upton, Alex Gordon and Zobriest, 4+ years. Quite a few less position players getting the years and dollars.  Not really up to the dollars signed for either.  Is this year the aberrant one or evidence of learning?  Dozier has had the bat, but not the fielding chops. He should get good to great AAV, I would doubt the years

 

I have no idea why a quote  is posting twice.

Edited March 29, 2018 by The Wise One

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not really. 2014  Sandoval, Hanly Ramirez,  Russel Martin, Yasmany Tomas,  V-Mart, Nelson Cruz,  Headley and Markasis all signed contracts for  four years or longer at 10 million a year or more.  What percentage of those contracts really worked out? Think that  maybe enough GMs got calls to take on  bad contracts they might grow a little cautious? 2015  Heyward, Davis, Upton, Alex Gordon and Zobriest, 4+ years. Quite a few less position players getting the years and dollars.  Not really up to the dollars signed for either.  Is this year the aberrant one or evidence of learning?  Dozier has had the bat, but not the fielding chops. He should get good to great AAV, I would doubt the years

 

I have no idea why a quote  is posting twice.

I don't disagree but I said Dozier would be insane to accept less than four years today.

 

Come next season, I see him easily getting 3-4 years at a good AAV. He may have to settle for three seasons at a higher per year rate given his age but he'll almost certainly start the bidding at 4-5 years.

 

Dozier has shown in the past that he's willing to bet on himself in a big way (he could have easily made $10-12m more in that contract with one free agency season buy out). He didn't do that, he demanded the ability to become a free agent. I don't see why he'd alter his mindset now that he's been very good for three consecutive seasons.

[howieramone2]

 

Pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy, no? If you don't acquire better players, you won't get better results. The Sox are not far behind the Twins, have money coming off the books, and have spent much more in the past. How aligned would the stars have to be for you to go all in?

The Pale Hose GM is starting his 6th year and just finished his tear down at the trade deadline. You won't see them for quite some time. 

[The Wise One]

 

I don't disagree but I said Dozier would be insane to accept less than four years today.

 

Come next season, I see him easily getting 3-4 years at a good AAV. He may have to settle for three seasons at a higher per year rate given his age but he'll almost certainly start the bidding at 4-5 years.

 

Dozier has shown in the past that he's willing to bet on himself in a big way (he could have easily made $10-12m more in that contract with one free agency season buy out). He didn't do that, he demanded the ability to become a free agent. I don't see why he'd alter his mindset now that he's been very good for three consecutive seasons.

I would not doubt that Dozier wants 4-5 years. Many players did last winter.  Not many got that.  Good for him if he gets it.  He could get a Martinez deal, or a Frazier deal. Only time will tell.  Heck of a risky bet, a year's worth of payroll for the Rays.  Much more risky than one year of free agency.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would not doubt that Dozier wants 4-5 years. Many players did last winter.  Not many got that.  Good for him if he gets it.  He could get a Martinez deal, or a Frazier deal. Only time will tell.  Heck of a risky bet, a year's worth of payroll for the Rays.  Much more risky than one year of free agency.

It's certainly a risk but given how many big money teams used this offseason to reset their luxury tax threshold, I doubt next offseason will resemble this offseason.

 

Also, Brian Dozier is both younger and a much better player than Todd Frazier. Dozier's 2017 fWAR value is nearly the equal of Frazier's 2016-2017 fWAR value.