Article: 2018 Twins Keys: Outfield Edition

[Seth Stohs]

The Minnesota Twins have a trio of very athletic outfielders. All three are 26 and under. All three have good speed. All three came up as prospects of the Twins, each reaching into Top 100 rankings (Buxton near the top, Rosario and Kepler appearing briefly). All three hit in the minor leagues, and all three have had their moments in the big leagues already. Most important, all three still have the potential to be even better with just a few improvements.Today, I want to highlight the three starting Twins outfielders by pointing to one statistic, one theme, or one area of improvement that could help them take the next step in their careers.

 

Kepler Versus Lefties

 

There is no question that Max Kepler has really struggled during his two seasons in the big leagues against left-handed pitching. Here are the numbers:

 

2016 (133 PA): .203/.273/.322 (.595) - .792 OPS vs RHP

2017 (137 PA): .152/.213/.240 (.453) - .828 OPS vs RHP

 

Kepler took a step backwards in 2017 against same-sided pitchers. Some may believe that there is enough of a sample size to suggest a strict platoon in right field. Others (this writer included) believe that because he will be just 25-years-old throughout the 2018 season, he needs to get more opportunities.

 

If you are looking for more reason for optimism, look back to 2015. After several years as a very raw prospect, Kepler had his breakout season in 2015 in which he was named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year. While he posted a .935 OPS against right-handers in AA, he also hit .319/.390/.473 (.863) against southpaws.

 

Of course, there is a difference between AA pitching and big league pitching, but that is enough to keep me optimistic for some success against left-handers. While we shouldn’t expect Kepler to increase his OPS vs LHP to the .800 level, if he could just get that number to the .650 range, it would be a dramatic improvement and help his overall numbers look just a little better.

 

That said, if he has another season with an OPS vs LHP near the .450 range, then the team will have to consider platoon options in right field for a playoff run and in the future.

 

Fast Start For Buxton

 

Byron Buxton is really fast. Unfortunately, his bat has started out very slowly in each of his three seasons in the big leagues. He’s proven to be very valuable just because of his defense, but we’ve also seen just how much he can bring to the table when he is being a force with the bat and the glove. In my opinion, one of the biggest keys to a strong 2018 Twins season might just be the bat of the best defensive player in the game in April.

 

Here is a quick look at the stats of Byron Buxton in his first 15 games in each of his first three seasons:

 

2015 (61 PA): .207/.233/.276 (.507)

2016 (40 PA): .162/.205/.297 (.502)

2017 (52 PA): .082/.135/.122 (.287)

 

His start in 2017 was dreadful, but as we saw over the course of the season, he made several adjustments and by season’s end, he looked like a new hitter.

 

Consider that after really struggling those first 15 games in 2017, he hit .274/.335/.448 (.783) the rest of the year.

 

As Yogi Berra famously said, “Half of baseball is 90% mental.” Imagine the confidence that Buxton could gain by getting off to a fast start. It is the kind of thing that could thrust him into superstardom and MVP discussions.

 

Rosario Shows Zone Judgment

 

Eddie Rosario enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 when he hit .290/.328/.507 (.836) with 33 doubles and 27 home runs. There is little question what the biggest key was for Eddie Rosario. He didn’t swing at as many pitches outside the zone. According to FanGraphs, here are his Outside-the-Zone Swing Percentages during his three MLB seasons:

 

2015: 45.6%

2016: 41.7%

2017: 37.6%

 

In short, he has quit swinging at quite so many pitches outside of the strike zone. In theory, by making the pitcher throw a few more strikes, and with Rosario’s still-aggressive approach, he is hitting better pitches. Rosario has such quick hands, and he makes contact at such a high percentage. By swinging at fewer bad pitches, he is giving himself a better chance. If Rosario can continue the trend, he should continue to put up really strong numbers. As nice as the improvement was in 2017, check out where Rosario ranks among Twins regulars last year at swinging at pitches out of the zone. (and I included Logan Morrison just for fun).

• Robbie Grossman 18.2%
• Joe Mauer 20.5%
• Jason Castro 21.7%
• Brian Dozier 23.4%
• Jorge Polanco 26.9%
• Logan Morrison 27.7%
• Max Kepler 28.5%
• Miguel Sano 29.1%
• Byron Buxton 31.1%
• Eduardo Escobar 35.7%
• Eddie Rosario 37.6%

In other words, there is much room for improvement. However, if he can put up his 2017 numbers while swinging at 37.6% of pitches outside the zone, imagine what type of numbers he might put up is he can get that number down to 32%, or even lower?

 

So there are three key numbers for three key contributors to a successful 2018 season for the Twins. “Nothing Falls But Raindrops” was the motto for the 2017 Twins outfielders. Each has good range at his outfield position, and each has a ton of potential remaining with his bat as well. The aforementioned statistics will be key for each of them.

 

 

What do you think?

 

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[TL]

Best part is none of the above is all that difficult to imagine! Buxton and Kepler almost have to get off to a better start and hit lefties better respectively. Rosario cutting down on swings outside the zone may be most unlikely but still I think there is a pretty good chance given the trajectory.

[ashbury]

Nice theme tying the players together. Each has a lot of hopes pinned on him, each is not quite yet the complete package, in very different ways.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Rosario is the guy that I think could have a monster season. He's certainly trending in the right direction on his Oswing numbers, and yeah, I think a 900+ OPS is very possible if he gets that number down to around 30%. I don't know if you'll see that this year, but I think the trend is clear that this number should continue to drop a bit. 

 

I'm not quite sure what to think about Kepler. He was the weak link in the OF last year, being a league average bat with a good defense. That's not bad. He probably has the most room for improvement at least in terms of hitting his ceiling. I don't expect him to be a world beater against lefties, but I think he can improve his OPS against righties too, and if he can get the lefty OPS to something respectable between .600-.700, he'll be fine.

 

As for Buxton, here's to hoping second half Buxton is the new normal. I'd be curious on his swing percentages by half. He certainly seemed to be doing a better job laying off the crap. That 31% number though says he has a ways to go there.

[bobs]

You want the main reason for optimism in Twins Territory?  These 3 guys are it.

[TFRazor]

Is it too much to hope for a Minnesota sweep of the Gold Glove Awards for the outfield?

[gunnarthor]

I'm probably ready for Kepler to be a platoon but if the Twins want to give him a bit more time (or trade him away), that's ok. I just don't think he's going to get it against lefties and maybe Granite or Wade could eventually be a better fit + whatever the trade piece is.

 

I love Rosario and Buxton. I've said many times that I think Buxton will be an all-star this year but Rosario is really underrated. His bat really makes our lineup deeper.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm on the side that says:  Be patient with Kepler.  He's got a little over 1,000 PA's coming into this season, so I'm hopeful Max is ready for a break-out season.

 

Buxton could really use a quick start this year.  

 

Rosario:  Told ya so  :-)

 

 

[South Dakota Tom]

I don't disagree that a .650 OPS versus left-handers will improve Kepler's overall numbers.    However, I think a .650 OPS still makes him a candidate for a platoon.    The only reason that would seem palatable is that we would have very little with which to improve those numbers from our current reserves (yes, Grossman's numbers should be better than that, but having him on the roster doesn't energize me).    I really like Zack Granite as a 4th OF, but I think the big picture answer is to continue to seek out a RH-hitting corner who can DH and play defense, making Grossman, Granite, and Vargas into one amalgamated player.

[Sssuperdave]

 

I don't disagree that a .650 OPS versus left-handers will improve Kepler's overall numbers.    However, I think a .650 OPS still makes him a candidate for a platoon.    The only reason that would seem palatable is that we would have very little with which to improve those numbers from our current reserves (yes, Grossman's numbers should be better than that, but having him on the roster doesn't energize me).    I really like Zack Granite as a 4th OF, but I think the big picture answer is to continue to seek out a RH-hitting corner who can DH and play defense, making Grossman, Granite, and Vargas into one amalgamated player.

 

While a .650 OPS is very bad for a starting right fielder, there are several reasons why I think it would be acceptable for Kepler vs LH:

 

• Defense - Kepler is better defensively that pretty much anyone I can think of to platoon him with.
• Roster flexibility- As you lay out yourself, current options (Granite & Grossman) don't fit well as platoon partners, so if you carry someone on the roster to be a Kepler platoon partner, you have to lose someone like Granite or Grossman and what they bring to the table.
• Consistency - This one is squishier and I don't have any data on it, but it would make sense to me that being part of a platoon might cause deteriorating results from the players strong side if it causes them to get out of rhythm due to having somewhat random days off. I recall reading in Kent Hrbek's book about this as we was given a lot of days off against LH pitching towards the end of his career.

 

If Kepler's OPS against left handers stays in the putrid 400s or 500s I think the drag makes it worth platooning, but I think .650 is worth keeping him in.

[rghrbek]

 

Is it too much to hope for a Minnesota sweep of the Gold Glove Awards for the outfield?

Did you see Rosario play left field last year?  He's got a ways to go.

[Thrylos]

Good stuff.

 

Re: Rosario and zone judgement.  O-swinging% is just one indicator of zone judgement and really need to look at additional indicators, as well as progression, esp. for players who have not yet reached their primes. 

 

His O-swinging% has dropped from 45.6% to 41.7 to 37.6 while his O-contact% at those pitches has increased from 63.5% to 65.5 to 72.0.  Also his K% has dropped from 24.9% and 25.7% to 18% while his BB% has increased from 3.2% and 3.4% to 5.9%

 

In other words, swinging outside the zone is not a cardinal sin, if you make contact.  And he makes good contact: His batting average increased from .267 and .269 to .290 while his BABIP actually decreased from .332 and .338 to .312.  If he adds those .020 points back to his BABIP (which in not a guarantee; but in 2017 he hit the ball as hard as in the previous years and with pretty much the same pull-straight-opposite values, indicating that it might be an outlier) we are talking about a .310 or so hitter and close to an .875 OPS (up from his .835 last season...)

 

I liked what I saw in ST from both Kepler and Buxton and I think that the will have good starts with Kepler continue taking meaningful PAs against LHP like he did this Spring

[jmlease1]

 

While a .650 OPS is very bad for a starting right fielder, there are several reasons why I think it would be acceptable for Kepler vs LH:

 

• Defense - Kepler is better defensively that pretty much anyone I can think of to platoon him with.
• Roster flexibility- As you lay out yourself, current options (Granite & Grossman) don't fit well as platoon partners, so if you carry someone on the roster to be a Kepler platoon partner, you have to lose someone like Granite or Grossman and what they bring to the table.
• Consistency - This one is squishier and I don't have any data on it, but it would make sense to me that being part of a platoon might cause deteriorating results from the players strong side if it causes them to get out of rhythm due to having somewhat random days off. I recall reading in Kent Hrbek's book about this as we was given a lot of days off against LH pitching towards the end of his career.

 

If Kepler's OPS against left handers stays in the putrid 400s or 500s I think the drag makes it worth platooning, but I think .650 is worth keeping him in.

 

I think this lays it out. If Kepler gets it up to around 650 OPA vs LHP, then you don't have to automatically think about pulling him late when a tough lefty reliever comes in with the game in doubt in the 7th. Instead of a platoon, he's a guy that maybe gets his days off when the toughest lefties are starting, and you can carry a guy who isn't much defensively but rakes against LHPs because you don't have to put him out there for Kepler for every start.

 

And if he gets into to a platoon situation this early in his career, he's never going to get out of it. If he keeps getting ABs against lefties the odds are good he'll improve, based on prior performance. I'm willing to be patient for a guy like Kepler.

 

Just like I'm willing to be patient on Rosario with his strike zone judgement and patience at the plate. That's a skill that can grow with age and experience and if he can make incremental growth there he's going to be a heck of a hitter.

[Dantes929]

Buxton is a little bit slump proof because of his bunting skills.   I think that kept him afloat long enough for his other offensive skills to transition last year.    I think it might be worth while for Kepler to work on that skill as well.

Several years ago I was promoting Hicks to be the right handed batter in n outfield platoon.   He would look pretty good in a platoon, 4th outfielder spot right now.  At the time I never thought he would hit as a lefty and would have been happy to be proven wrong.    Now not so happy that he is proving me wrong with the Yankees.

[slash129]

 

 

In other words, swinging outside the zone is not a cardinal sin, if you make contact.  

 

Great point, Thrylos.

 

Vlad the Impaler made a HOF career on doing it

 

[yarnivek1972]

Realistically, in these days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs, the days of platooning a player are probably over. There simply isn’t room on the roster when you already have only a 3 or 4 man bench. If Kepler can’t improve vs LHP he may see his career come to an abrupt halt.

 

.650 OPS vs lhp would be a very big inprovement in one year. Frankly, that may be as good as he ever does. Which, if he posts .900 plus agsinst rhp (which he may someday), that would probably get the job done.

[TFRazor]

 

Did you see Rosario play left field last year?  He's got a ways to go.

Did you see Alex Gordon play left last year? Apparently average defense can get you a gold glove. In other words, LET'S GO ROSIE!!!!!!!

[Pardon My Dinger]

If anybody suggests a trip down to Rochester for any one of these guys at any point in 2018, I am going to act a fool.

 

Rosie has always been my guy. Looking for a big year from him.

[sswen]

Sounds good to me.

  Let's get this party started!!

[Mr. Brooks]

Did you see Alex Gordon play left last year? Apparently average defense can get you a gold glove. In other words, LET'S GO ROSIE!!!!!!!

Alex Gordon was a plus 0.7 dWAR last year, to Rosario's minus 1.6.

Rosario is going to have to improve a ton on defense to get to Gordon's level.

[jimbo92107]

Eddie Rosario is the heart of the Minnesota Twins. Dozier is there too, but we all know he's a year from heading elsewhere, especially with the logjam of talent in the middle infield. That leaves Eddie as the emotional team leader. 

 

Rosie is notorious for flailing at anything white moving within a couple yards of the plate, but he has gradually toned it down, and 37 percent flailing was downright stingy last season. If he can just get it through his head that NOT swinging at pitches can put more pressure on a pitcher... sigh.

 

As Buxton accumulates professional expertise in each aspect of his game, he will continue to get closer to MVP. Rookie year, he was a horrible, embarrassing bunter. Now he's a good bunter. As a rook, Buck's form on steals was terrible. Now, it's close to ideal. Fifty steals will be easy for him this season. 

 

Kepler is going to get better against lefties because he's Kepler, and Kepler won't tolerate not solving a mechanical problem. I would be very surprised if he doesn't improve dramatically against lefties this year.

[gunnarthor]

 

Alex Gordon was a plus 0.7 dWAR last year, to Rosario's minus 1.6.
Rosario is going to have to improve a ton on defense to get to Gordon's level.

Take those numbers with a huge grain of salt. If you believe them, those suggest that Rosario was a worse LFer than guys like Willingham and Young. Clearly not true.

 

The reality is that defensive stats aren't that accurate yet - in both measurement and value. A few years ago, hardball times wrote about the problem of defensive metrics in OF that have three strong fielders. They noted that in OF with a very strong CFer, (they looked at Jim Edmonds impact on Pujols and Drew as one example) one or both corner OFers would get dinged more than they should. I'd bet that's what's happening here. Rosario generally looks good in the OF. He's certainly not at the level of Hammer or Delmon.

[Mr. Brooks]

Take those numbers with a huge grain of salt. If you believe them, those suggest that Rosario was a worse LFer than guys like Willingham and Young. Clearly not true.

 

The reality is that defensive stats aren't that accurate yet - in both measurement and value. A few years ago, hardball times wrote about the problem of defensive metrics in OF that have three strong fielders. They noted that in OF with a very strong CFer, (they looked at Jim Edmonds impact on Pujols and Drew as one example) one or both corner OFers would get dinged more than they should. I'd bet that's what's happening here. Rosario generally looks good in the OF. He's certainly not at the level of Hammer or Delmon.

Rosario looked like a very poor outfielder in 2017 to my eye.

 

It's also what we have, and most people don't have time to watch every game of every team, which is what would be necessary for the eye test to have any accuracy whatsoever.

[gunnarthor]

 

Rosario looked like a very poor outfielder in 2017 to my eye.

It's also what we have, and most people don't have time to watch every game of every team, which is what would be necessary for the eye test to have any accuracy whatsoever.

I dunno dude. I'm not sure why we would think Rosario went from a major plus defender in 2015 to a disaster in 2017. The main difference is that Rosario isn't covering as much range now as he did in 2015 but that's because Buxton is the full time CFer now as opposed to Hicks and Robinson then.

 

In any event, Rosario is a pretty fast guy with a strong arm so I don't think we need to overly worry about one year's sample of defensive metrics. I'm fairly confident we'll have a strong OF in part because Rosario is out there.

[yarnivek1972]

I dunno dude. I'm not sure why we would think Rosario went from a major plus defender in 2015 to a disaster in 2017. The main difference is that Rosario isn't covering as much range now as he did in 2015 but that's because Buxton is the full time CFer now as opposed to Hicks and Robinson then.

 

In any event, Rosario is a pretty fast guy with a strong arm so I don't think we need to overly worry about one year's sample of defensive metrics. I'm fairly confident we'll have a strong OF in part because Rosario is out there.

The main thing we saw in 2017 from Rosario IMO was poor decisions. Throwing to the wrong base, not hitting cut off man. Things like that.

 

If Buxton’s pressence explained the decline in Rosario’s fielding metrics, we would have expected to see the same from Kepler. Kepler’s got better.

 

Rosario has plenty of ability. He needs to keep his head in the game better.

[TFRazor]

 

Alex Gordon was a plus 0.7 dWAR last year, to Rosario's minus 1.6.
Rosario is going to have to improve a ton on defense to get to Gordon's level.

 

So in other words yes, you can win a gold glove with league average defence. Rosie gets to league average and roll the dice. Personally I think he's better than -1.6. Last year was a weird year defensively for him.

[adorduan]

 

I dunno dude. I'm not sure why we would think Rosario went from a major plus defender in 2015 to a disaster in 2017. The main difference is that Rosario isn't covering as much range now as he did in 2015 but that's because Buxton is the full time CFer now as opposed to Hicks and Robinson then.

 

In any event, Rosario is a pretty fast guy with a strong arm so I don't think we need to overly worry about one year's sample of defensive metrics. I'm fairly confident we'll have a strong OF in part because Rosario is out there.

This^^^  There were a ton of times balls were hit to left center an both Rosario and Buxton were there in time to make the catch and the vast majority of the time Rosario deferred to Buxton.  I'm sure this didn't help his defensive numbers.

[Mr. Brooks]

I dunno dude. I'm not sure why we would think Rosario went from a major plus defender in 2015 to a disaster in 2017. The main difference is that Rosario isn't covering as much range now as he did in 2015 but that's because Buxton is the full time CFer now as opposed to Hicks and Robinson then.

 

In any event, Rosario is a pretty fast guy with a strong arm so I don't think we need to overly worry about one year's sample of defensive metrics. I'm fairly confident we'll have a strong OF in part because Rosario is out there.

Well his dWAR went from a positive 0.8 in 2015, to a positive 0.1 in 2016, to a negative 1.6 last year.

So, it looks more like a steady, year to year decline to me, rather than a sudden fluke season.

 

It's been documented in multiple other threads that he lost more than a step last year, for whatever the reason.

The awful baserunning numbers would also suggest that his awareness and instincts lag well behind his speed. Which, I assume might also show itself on defense.

I'll be interested to see how he does this year, that's for sure.