Article: Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz Optioned

[gunnarthor]

 

Busenitz had a 4.20 FIP last season. He wasn't very good at all, IMO, just incredibly lucky.
He had babip and strand rates that are nowhere near repeatable.

The sample size is too small to say really anything.  

[yarnivek1972]

I agree, making the decision to not keep Busenitz up more puzzling to me.

 

Kinley does not have enough upside, compared to how easy it is to find RP on the market, or convert starters, to waste a 25 man spot on him for the year. And if he's only used in wasted games, they'll never really know if he is. There are only 25 spots....a playoff contendor should not be wasting one, or two, if you count Hughes....

Not enough upside? How many other pitchers in the org can hit 99?

[prouster]

 

Not sure I understand what Buesnitz would have had to do last year to show he's better than Kinley, who put up worse numbers in the miinors than Alan didin the majors.....Are they trying to win this year, or not?

 

It will be a weird season if the team's fate hinges on Alan Busenitz.

 

The histrionics over marginal players is right on cue this year:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/25367-article-surprises-mark-twins-opening-day-roster/page-13?hl=%2Bbyung-ho+%2Bpark&do=findComment&comment=595757

Edited March 22, 2018 by prouster

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'd think all the free agency moves indicate they are.

 

With all the new vets in the pen whomever gets the last spot is almost certainly going to be used exclusively in low leverage situations. I don't see the problem with keeping the Rule V guy.

 

And I'm a big Busenitz guy. Nothing against Rodney, Reed or Duke, but I'm excited for the big young arms take their jobs and I hope it happens sooner rather than later.

If Molitor is being forced to use a guy that he doesn't trust/doesn't belong in the majors I think that's a big problem. Hughes is already going to eat up a roster spot; if Kinley has to be buried as well it not only puts a crunch on the relief staff, but it harms an already thinning bench, especially if Sano has to sit. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

It will be a weird season if the team's fate hinges on Alan Busenitz.

 

That is not an argument I've made, is it?

[prouster]

 

That is not an argument I've made, is it?

 

You pointed to Busenitz's reassignment as reason to question the FO's commitment to winning. So . . .

[nicksaviking]

 

Because they are trying to win this year, not audition RPs. I get the logic, I don't agree with it.

 

I don't know why it can't be both. I don't think the answer to whether this team will compete this year rests on who is the 25th man vs the 26th man on a 40 man roster, nor do I think the correct choice is as black and white as it's being made out to be. 

 

It's quite possible that there is no wrong choice.

 

Or that there is no right choice.

[Twodogs]

How many more cuts do the twins need to make?

[Nine of twelve]

My wild-@$$ prediction is that Busenitz will be lights out at Rochester and be the call-up when a new reliever is needed due to injury or performance issues.

[slash129]

Not going to jump to any conclusions on this just yet ... Too many unknowns

 

1) Phil Hughes - Falvine didn't sign or extend him.  Is ownership completely hands-off on this situation?  Are Falvine under any direction to get every ounce of value possible out of that deal?

 

2) Kinley - Are they buying time to work a trade that keeps him in the system but not on the 25-man? Polanco's spot on the 40 is still open (AFAIK at this moment) ... Maybe they make a trade for Kinley and assign him to AAA or AA, then turn around and sign a cast-off to address the bottom of the bullpen or middle-infield situations ... Also Kinley was pitching pretty well, and then they tried to get a 3rd consecutive inning out of him ... Does he get any leeway for failing on that first attempt?

 

3) Duffey - Hasn't exactly been a rock in the pen or as a starter since his debut season ... Does he really deserve anything?

 

4) Busenitz - Live, high velo arm, but his performance was a bit smoke and mirrors ... ERA well below FIP ... Unsustainable strand rate ... The options are there to be used.  Not the end of the world being a phone call away in Rochester

 

5) Wild Cards - Moya, Jake Reed, Nick Anderson -  They've had good springs.  Again there is an open 40 spot. 

 

I think everything will make a lot more sense in a week.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not going to jump to any conclusions on this just yet ... Too many unknowns

 

1) Phil Hughes - Falvine didn't sign or extend him.  Is ownership completely hands-off on this situation?  Are Falvine under any direction to get every ounce of value possible out of that deal?

 

2) Kinley - Are they buying time to work a trade that keeps him in the system but not on the 25-man? Polanco's spot on the 40 is still open (AFAIK at this moment) ... Maybe they make a trade for Kinley and assign him to AAA or AA, then turn around and sign a cast-off to address the bottom of the bullpen or middle-infield situations ... Also Kinley was pitching pretty well, and then they tried to get a 3rd consecutive inning out of him ... Does he get any leeway for failing on that first attempt?

 

3) Duffey - Hasn't exactly been a rock in the pen or as a starter since his debut season ... Does he really deserve anything?

 

4) Busenitz - Live, high velo arm, but his performance was a bit smoke and mirrors ... ERA well below FIP ... Unsustainable strand rate ... The options are there to be used.  Not the end of the world being a phone call away in Rochester

 

5) Wild Cards - Moya, Jake Reed, Nick Anderson -  They've had good springs.  Again there is an open 40 spot. 

 

I think everything will make a lot more sense in a week.

 

I think Busenitz's smoke and mirrors last year was a bit of smoke and mirrors itself. His peripherals last year weren't good, but I think that was almost entirely because his strike out rate didn't match his outcomes. I think that was a bit fluky and he will miss a bunch of bats with a larger sample size.

 

I'm really excited for the new young crop of relievers. Last year the pen succeeded because of, not in spite of Hildenburger, Rogers, Busenitz, Moya and company. With all the vets and the Rule V pick, it probably means the youngsters will all be yo-yo'd up and down this year, but after last season's relatively quick trigger execution of poorly performing arms, I'm fairly confident that the players who cannot be optioned are basically only getting the one chance.

[Taildragger8791]

Has there been any sightings of Tyler Jay this spring? I saw he had one rough outing with the big league club but has been off the radar otherwise. I thought they would be evaluating him for a push to the majors (which was the purpose of switching him back to relief in the first place).

[amjgt]

 

Not a huge deal since April rosters are rarely the best 25 players. What's the plan with Duffey - is he a starter? Swingman? Reliever? It'll be interesting to see how the play him in AAA.

 

8-man rotation for Rochester?

[Shaitan]

It's nice to have depth.

[Danchat]

I'm a bit disappointed about Busenitz, but I know he'll be back soon. And it's the same for Moya, as if he doesn't make the Opening Day Roster, he'll be back within no time. I don't think he's taking Rogers spot... Molitor trusts Taylor and isn't going to ship him to AAA after a rough Spring Training.

 

I thought they'd stick with Duffey but I'm glad they decided not to because he's been a poor pitcher the past couple seasons. I'm not sure what can be done with him, but he's reaching the end of his rope. He needs to figure out something at Rochester or it's curtains for his Twins career.

[bird]

 

I hope this is sarcasm....

 

Not. I was trying not to be sarcastic.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I hope the Twins aren’t sending Duffey to be part of the rotation in Rochester. Again there is a pitcher in Chattanooga who shouldn’t be in Chattanooga (or in Chattanooga for long), if the Twins keep adding more to the rotation in Rochester when would you know who get his shot?

[Jacksson]

Don't panic.  Remember that there are a couple of Rule 5 players that were lost by the Twins who may end up being offered back as well as having the Kinley slot available for another player who is either waived or DFA.  Wait until the dust clears before passing judgement.

[slash129]

 

I hope the Twins aren’t sending Duffey to be part of the rotation in Rochester. Again there is a pitcher in Chattanooga who shouldn’t be in Chattanooga (or in Chattanooga for long), if the Twins keep adding more to the rotation in Rochester when would you know who get his shot?

 

Romero can get called up directly from AA.  I still think Arteaga's presence in Chattanooga has more to do with Romero being there than him being "behind" all the starters at Rochester.

[kab21]

 

The sample size is too small to say really anything.  

That is true but many are saying that Busenitz should be on the team because of how well he did last year.

 

The fact is that he didn't do that well in that limited sample size. His ERA looks great but he didn't strike anyone out and his swstr% (needs less of a sample size to be relevant) was awful. Busenitz is still an intriguing RP to have but the fact is that he has options to be sent down.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think we are likely to disagree on the importance of every single person on the roster being useful. 

 

They're important but how important. Does the last man in a pen really matter? I'd be surprised if he costs you one game a year. He's there to burn innings. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

They're important but how important. Does the last man in a pen really matter? I'd be surprised if he costs you one game a year. He's there to burn innings. 

 

I'd rather someone with options be in that role. I'd rather someone that wasn't bad in AA had that role. 

[kab21]

 

I'd rather someone with options be in that role. I'd rather someone that wasn't bad in AA had that role. 

At the end of the day your issue is Kinley vs Busenitz though. Kinley's bad in AA is about as relevant as Busenitz's bad in AAA (Angels) in 2016 or his 2015 in AA.

 

Kinley is a bit of a flyer and I won't claim to be optimistic on his MLB chances but Busenitz has been wildly overrated in this thread based on 30 innings last year that the advanced stats say were lucky.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At the end of the day your issue is Kinley vs Busenitz though. Kinley's bad in AA is about as relevant as Busenitz's bad in AAA (Angels) in 2016 or his 2015 in AA.

 

Kinley is a bit of a flyer and I won't claim to be optimistic on his MLB chances but Busenitz has been wildly overrated in this thread based on 30 innings last year that the advanced stats say were lucky.

 

Buesnitz has options....that's part of his appeal to me. The team has set themselves up with very little flexibility in the pitching staff, the opposite of the Dodgers, for example.

[USAFChief]

 

They're important but how important. Does the last man in a pen really matter? I'd be surprised if he costs you one game a year. He's there to burn innings. 

Every arm in a bullpen matters.  Every arm in a pen will find themselves in multiple games that have yet to be decided over the course of a season.

 

The "last man" will be in fewer than the first several, for sure, but close games happen all the time in MLB and you can't just have an arm that you only use in blowouts.  He'll be needed.

[prouster]

Buesnitz has options....that's part of his appeal to me. The team has set themselves up with very little flexibility in the pitching staff, the opposite of the Dodgers, for example.

I'm trying to understand your reasoning--are you saying that Busenitz has value because he has options, but they shouldn't use those options? I disagree that they don't have flexibility. They're carrying 13 pitchers with lots of others who can be moved around.

Edited March 22, 2018 by prouster

[prouster]

Every arm in a bullpen matters. Every arm in a pen will find themselves in multiple games that have yet to be decided over the course of a season.

 

The "last man" will be in fewer than the first several, for sure, but close games happen all the time in MLB and you can't just have an arm that you only use in blowouts. He'll be needed.

But with more pitchers on the roster, each additional spot loses importance. There are a finite number of innings to be pitched, and more guys to pitch them means fewer outs per arm.

[kab21]

 

Buesnitz has options....that's part of his appeal to me. The team has set themselves up with very little flexibility in the pitching staff, the opposite of the Dodgers, for example.

They have very little flexibility to move players up and down but they more players to choose from because they used an option on a guy and retained him instead of sending the player back. If Busenitz is any good at all he will certainly get his chance.

 

And you seem to dismiss the idea that Kinley might actually be better than Busenitz. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

They have very little flexibility to move players up and down but they more players to choose from because they used an option on a guy and retained him instead of sending the player back. If Busenitz is any good at all he will certainly get his chance.

 

And you seem to dismiss the idea that Kinley might actually be better than Busenitz. 

 

I dismiss the likelihood, given how Kinley performed in AA last year, true. Not impossible, not likely.

[kab21]

 

I dismiss the likelihood, given how Kinley performed in AA last year, true. Not impossible, not likely.

But the comparison is to Busenitz and not to being a good MLB'er. Busenitz is just as old and had a couple of stints in 2015 and 2016 that were just as bad. It is one thing to say that someone isn't good but to say that another is better is a different matter.