Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Nick Nelson]

Statcast technology was introduced to all 30 major-league stadiums in 2015, the very same year Byron Buxton made his MLB debut.

 

It's our coolest new toy and already Buxton is threatening to break the dang thing, pushing past hypothetical human limits with his mind-boggling athleticism.

 

But in all seriousness, we are awfully lucky that Buck has arrived in an era where we can – for the first time – tangibly measure the utterly ridiculous things he does on a baseball field.Projected Starter: Byron Buxton

Likely Backup: Max Kepler

 

Depth: Eddie Rosario, Zack Granite, Jake Cave

Prospects: Granite, LaMonte Wade, Royce Lewis

 

THE GOOD

 

On August 18th of last season, Buxton drove a high fly ball off the right-center field wall at Target Field and sprinted around the bases for an inside the park homer. His total time from home-to-home registered at 13.85 seconds – a new Statcast record that broke (of course) his own, set the previous October.

 

Last year Buxton put up the fastest sprint speed in the majors, which comes into play both on the base paths and in the outfield. At 24, he doesn't seem to be at risk of losing a step anytime too soon. And in fact, Buck's foot speed continues to play up more and more as he improves his reads on fly balls and opposing pitchers.

 

Of course, while Buxton's defense has been elite from the start, his offensive game has been held back by a lack of contact. Strikeout issues carried over into the early part of 2017, when the outfielder dug a deep hole with his voluminous whiffs in April. But he consistently cut down his strikeout rate each month, to the point where he was contributing at an MVP-caliber level down the stretch.

 

Buxton's .298/.342/.541 slash line in August and September, coupled with a perfect 13-for-13 rate on steals and unsurpassed defensive impact, made him arguably the most transformative single player in the game during that stretch. He was instrumental in Minnesota's unlikely sprint to the postseason, earning him some down-ballot AL MVP love (he finished 18th in the balloting).

 

For a guy who was batting .195 with a .550 OPS at the end of June, causing some to wonder if additional minor-league seasoning might be required, that's flat-out incredible.

 

The idea of getting second-half Buxton for a full year in 2018 is exhilarating. The way he can help a pitching staff and propel an offense is unique within today's game. Still only realizing his near-limitless potential, Buxton is the organization's most valuable asset, and fortunately the front office seems fully aware. He's the only young core player with whom they are known to have engaged in extension negotiations.

 

Hopefully they'll get something done and lock him as the long-term centerpiece he should be. I believe they will. But doing so would not eliminate the importance of quality depth behind him.

 

THE BAD

 

There are basically two concerns around Buxton.

 

The first is that he'll relapse and revert to his whiffing ways – certainly possible, but unlikely given the progressive and convincing nature of his evolution in this regard.

 

The second is that the speedster's all-out playing style will lead to injuries, and that's a very legitimate apprehension. I wrote about this last spring when I was in camp, and while Buxton went on to mostly to buck his trend (yes yes pun intended) of missing significant chunks of time – save for a two-week hiatus in July due to a groin strain – his season did end with a hazardous crash into Yankee Stadium's outfield wall.

 

Injuries are always a reality of the game, and in Buxton's case no one could deny that the risk is heightened. He's obviously irreplaceable but the Twins are well served to put multiple solid contingencies in place. Perhaps that factored in to a trade they made on Friday.

 

The Twins acquired outfielder Jake Cave from the Yankees and designated Kennys Vargas for assignment in the process. Although Cave profiles "best in the corners," according to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, he has mostly played center in the minors and is considered capable there, giving Minnesota another option. His first day after coming over, Cave started in center against Pittsburgh in Bradenton on Saturday.

 

But Zack Granite is clearly contingency No. 1. He was the regular in center while Buxton was sidelined by his groin strain after the All-Star break, and played well. Granite is the only natural center fielder in line behind Buxton at this point. Max Kepler or Eddie Rosario could fill in as short-term plugs but neither is really suited for the position for an extended stretch. Prospect LaMonte Wade, much like Cave, has played primarily center in the minors but will likely end up in a corner.

 

The next impact center fielder in the pipeline might actually be Royce Lewis, the 2017 first overall pick who's currently playing shortstop but could well switch positions as he rises through the ranks. His speed and instinctual savvy would surely make him an asset out there. But if Buxton sticks around for another seven or eight years, he's not getting supplanted by anyone. Should Lewis move off short, I'm sure the Twins won't have much trouble finding something to do with him.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

Buxton is already the best defensive center fielder in baseball and could be fast on his way to challenging Mike Trout as the best all-around. He produced 3.5 WAR in a 2017 campaign marred by a brutal first half at the plate, so that almost feels like his floor going forward if healthy.

 

Granted, that's a bigger "if" than you get with most players in the game today, but the Twins will live with the risks inherent to his aggressive and spectacular playing style. They've got multiple short-term fallback options and hopefully won't be seeking a permanent replacement for a long, long time.

 

 

 

 

~~~

Catch up on the rest of the series:

 

Twins Daily Position Analysis: Catcher

Twins Daily Position Analysis: First Base

Twins Daily Position Analysis: Second Base

Twins Daily Position Analysis: Third Base

Twins Daily Position Analysis: Shortstop

Twins Daily Position Analysis: Left Field

 

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[mickeymental]

is he any good at shortstop?

[slash129]

Lock him up long term ... Every fly to the gaps is pure entertainment!!

[theBOMisthebomb]

The injuries when Buxton is making incredible effort to make the impossible play are concerning. How do you tell a guy to not try to make those plays?

[mikelink45]

The Twins greatest strength is its defense in the Outfield.  Buxton is the reason and we need to keep building on that - ultimately defense makes a better pitching staff.  We just need to tighten up the left side of the infield and hope that Rosario can keep his talent under control in LF. 

[slash129]

 

The injuries when Buxton is making incredible effort to make the impossible play are concerning. How do you tell a guy to not try to make those plays?

 

IMO, you don't.  You tell him to practice falling and practice movements against the wall that will help him protect his body. 

 

Also, line the Target Field walls with LUX-HQ foam and turn those walls into something more resembling high-ball bouldering crash pads.

[slash129]

 

We just need to tighten up the left side of the infield 

 

Don't want to get off track here, but ....

 

That's why Adrianza, IMO.  Plenty of bats to protect him. He'll have Dozier hitting behind him.

 

Sorry, back to CF discussion.

[gunnarthor]

I think Buxton will finish top five in MVP voting this year. Should be a fun year to watch him.

[birddog]

Loved watching Puckett hit and play CF, but Buxton is just so unbelievable with his explosive talents. Every gapper he hits you think "triple" and every gapper hit at him you think he has a chance to get it. You don't appreciate how much ground he covers in CF until you are there in person.  He seems to start out slowly every year of professional ball, so maybe we can't expect .300 in April but if he gets out to a fast start it could certainly be an MVP season. Definitely lock him up for the next 8+ years.

[bobs]

Not many teams better set up for success in CF in the future than the Twins.

[jmlease1]

CF is looking pretty solid right now. At some point going after a high ceiling prospect off an international signing or high draft pick will be a good idea to start the pipeline going again, but right now the position looks to be in great hands.

 

It will be interesting to see how Granite responds this season. He's probably not going to crack the Opening Day roster, but he's going to be the first call to fill in the OF. It will be interesting to see if he can handle the uncertainty and if he can build on last year's success in the minors to find consistency in the majors. It would be wonderful to have a high average hitter who can be a defensive asset off the bench.

[Pinetar]

I'd like to see Granite succeed, I really would.  (And not only because I like the name) However, the kid's got a swing that must make every hitting coach that sees him say, "What the fugoodness sake is that?"  Whether or not it can hold up at the major league level remains to be seen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think Buxton will finish top five in MVP voting this year. Should be a fun year to watch him.

 

Agreed.

[jkcarew]

Just noticed Baseball Reference for "most similar batter through age 23"...

 

Larry Hisle.  Boy, I'd take that.  Buxton would be top-10 MVP many, many years if he develops offensively as did Hisle (and stays healthy).

 

The floor is Paul Blair.  For those of you that weren't around for Vietnam or the Civil Rights movement (but can remember exactly where you were when Kanye dissed Taylor at the VMA's )...let's just say that that's a good floor.  You can eat off that floor.

[Tibs]

I was lucky enough to see Buxton hit that inside the park homer last August. That was so much fun to watch.

 

If he puts up that slash line from August/September for a full year, then he is the best CF in baseball.

[Penthang]

Buxton is the most fun to watch player in baseball … I want them to keep him in a Twins uniform as long as they can and keep Granit in the back pocket for his off days and for when he is down with injury.

[ScooterDance]

It's going to be a lot of fun 'round these parts if Buxton puts up an April / May '18 similar to Aug / Sept '17.

[highlander]

Zach Granite and Jake Cave. Wow, is this a Flintstones episode?

[Mike Sixel]

Just in, Mike Trout is amazing.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-center-field/