Lynn, Morrison, Ryan, Falvey and Levine

[Deduno Abides]

Great off-season by the front office. May have plugged some holes on an economical basis. Still have to play the games, but there is more reason for optimism this year than there has been for years.

 

However, and I say this as someone who thinks Ryan needed to go and that the new FO is an improvement, this winter’s signings are not an indication that the new FO is superior to Ryan. For one thing, these types of deals were not available to Terry Ryan. Second, it’s impossible to say that he would not have taken the deals if they had been available. Even without a modern grasp of analytics, Ryan knew baseball well enough to know that Morrison, Lynn and Odorizzi are good baseball players and he knew enough about economics to know that their salaries are reasonable. Third, the Darvish negotiations, which represent the one potential deal that was comparable to potential deals during the Ryan era, was lost similarly to how deals didn’t happen under Ryan, where the team would just happen to offer less than the signing team and the explanation for the lower offer didn’t completely make sense. It is likely too that Ryan would have brought in someone like Sanchez, although he may not have cut him as quickly as Falvey did, because Ryan seemed to think he had kind of an odd “a man’s word” obligation to mediocre veteran free agents.

 

There are many reasons why the new FO is better, such as better use of analytics, the way it has filled other front office and player development spots, and openness to skilled coaches from other organizations who haven’t already been recycled a few times. I also prefer how they discuss players publicly. However, it’s hard to see how signing quality free agents at bargain prices is an example of superiority when those deals who were not available to Ryan.

[howieramone2]

TR was the architect of one of the fastest rebuilds of any mid-market team. He wouldn't have wasted time on Darvish, but would have been in on several of the others.

 

Since so many teams seem to be rebuilding, I encourage members to follow the trials and tribulations of those teams. The board in 2013 and 2104, could never get it into it's head, that you can't do a complete rebuild and win the World Series at the same.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not bashing Ryan here, as I think the fanbase somewhat unfairly tried to run the guy out on rails.

 

But can you imagine a single offseason where Ryan agrees to 6-7 MLB contracts and not a single one of them is a scrapheap guy? I can't.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I credit the Ryan regime for finding this current corps of talent; this group is very capable of winning the whole thing. On the other hand, it would have been out of character for Ryan to cut Plouffe or buy out Perkins, and those types of moves are also necessary to winning.

[gunnarthor]

I'm sure this thread will turn ugly but I'm not sure it needs to. I'm not as high on the new FO as much as others (although I like Levine more than Falvey) but there isn't really a need to say one of the other. Ryan did a wonderful job creating a system that kept a small market team in contention for basically a decade. That's a heck of an achievement. Ryan also took over in the mid-90s with no real financial support from ownership but was given a heck of a lot of rope - it took him a while to become a good GM.

 

The new FO is in a completely different situation. They were given a great group of young talent and a bit more willingness to spend. On the other hand, they won't get five or six years to learn on the job. I suspect that the new FO will more or less work on the Ryan model with minor tinkering. They aren't going to sign a Darvish but they'll look to make bargain FA deals. They'll build from within and hoard their own prospects. They'll try and nab talent through rule v and take flyers on certain guys. It'll be interesting to see how much of this nucleus the team gets to keep or if they can create a system that continues to replenish like Ryan did. 

[Vanimal46]

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:14 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not bashing Ryan here, as I think the fanbase somewhat unfairly tried to run the guy out on rails.

 

But can you imagine a single offseason where Ryan agrees to 6-7 MLB contracts and not a single one of them is a scrapheap guy? I can't.

Ehh, I'd argue Rodney and Sanchez are scrap heap guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:30 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Ehh, I'd argue Rodney and Sanchez are scrap heap guys.

Rodney is not a scrapheap guy and Sanchez wasn’t guaranteed an MLB contract.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:14 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not bashing Ryan here, as I think the fanbase somewhat unfairly tried to run the guy out on rails.

 

But can you imagine a single offseason where Ryan agrees to 6-7 MLB contracts and not a single one of them is a scrapheap guy? I can't.

Ryan would sign players like Rodney and Duke. It’s questionable if he would have signed Reed, although he may have recognized the change in value for relievers and the relative bargain Reed offered.

 

It’s hard to know about Odorizzi, Morrison and Lynn. Ryan simply wasn’t faced with similar opportunities, particularly Lynn and Morrison. It would not have been that out of character to trade a mid-tier prospect for a starter like Odorizzi.

 

As to total quantity, it’s hard to know, because the relievers were earlier. Whether Ryan would have stopped then and not gotten the last three under any cost or if he would have recognized the unique opportunities, it’s hard to say.

[Jham]

Or maybe Ryan was more innovative than other GMs. He low-balled an inflated market before collusion was cool. Truly a GM ahead of his time. Just needed the rest of the league to play along.

[nicksaviking]

I think (hope) that after the point when Derek Falvey and Thad Lavine are no longer referred to as the "new" front office we will have fewer problems with the too common assumption that praise or criticism of the "new" guys necessarily correlates to a criticism or praise of the "old" guys.

[KirbyDome89]

 

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:14 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not bashing Ryan here, as I think the fanbase somewhat unfairly tried to run the guy out on rails.

 

But can you imagine a single offseason where Ryan agrees to 6-7 MLB contracts and not a single one of them is a scrapheap guy? I can't.

Can you think of an offseason where TR had nearly $30M to spend, the market was down, and key large market teams weren't players in FA? 

 

There are certainly ways the new FO has improved operations. I don't know why we can't just be happy with that. IMO the two FOs have made a lot of similar moves, but there's an effort to view the recent ones as glass half full and the previous ones as glass half empty.  

[TheLeviathan]

This was an unprecedented offseason in scope and success for this organization.

 

That is genuine praise for our current FO and a sad indictment of others.

[Thrylos]

You have TR to thank for the fact that Phil Hughes had occupied a spot on the 40- and 25-man roster the past few seasons and will do so next season.

 

Ryan extended Hughes (and Capps and Pelfrey before him.)   Ryan would had extended Mauer and Dozier already.

 

As far as the "Twins' young core" goes, other than Buxton and Berrios who were drafted in 2012, Polanco Sano, Kepler, and Rosario were signed and drafted when Bill Smith and not Terry Ryan was at helm.  Just in case people forget...

[Obsvr]

It's a complete waste of time to compare the two regimes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:44 PM, Deduno Abides said:

Ryan would sign players like Rodney and Duke. It’s questionable if he would have signed Reed, although he may have recognized the change in value for relievers and the relative bargain Reed offered.

It’s hard to know about Odorizzi, Morrison and Lynn. Ryan simply wasn’t faced with similar opportunities, particularly Lynn and Morrison. It would not have been that out of character to trade a mid-tier prospect for a starter like Odorizzi.

As to total quantity, it’s hard to know, because the relievers were earlier. Whether Ryan would have stopped then and not gotten the last three under any cost or if he would have recognized the unique opportunities, it’s hard to say.

I think you missed my point. I'm not comparing the quality of players but I am comparing the number of acquisitions. You can imagine Ryan signing any one of the guys acquired this offseason but I can't envision a scenario where he goes full-bore Pokemon and catches them all.

 

The scenarios are definitely different but Ryan was the GM for a mighty long time in different eras and playing in different ballparks. We never saw anything that even approaches this offseason... and that's me being pretty generous with Ryan's offseason moves. He was an extremely conservative GM, probably to a fault. That doesn't make him a bad GM per se but it means we watched too many uninspiring offseasons under his leadership.

[Twinfan & Dad]

TR was a good man who's time had come to find a new job. No way he would have improved the team as much in as short of time as it is now. Hughes,Nolasco,Pelfrey,Correia,Marquis were all pitching free agent misses by T.R.. The one good signing Santana. Oh and 1 more name that was released DAVID ORTIZ!

[Rosterman]

I think the current front office needs to be congratulated for staying in the hunt, not believing the press that so-and-so would demand and get x-amount of dollars. A lot of smoke is blown in free agency, and players are now discovering that MAYBE they aren't worth what teams stupidly paid in the past for average results. It will give a whole new look to qualifying offers, and also players inking longer-term deals with current teams.

 

Players forget that they have arbitration, which does work for them. You eitehr get overpaid (or rewarded) for services to a team, but if you prove to be too "expensive" a team will bite-the-bullet and let you walk, and more often than not you will sign for less.

 

Players now have to take into consideation that a qualifying offer may be a great route to make money for an additional year before entering free agency. Maybe teams aren't seeing the light of paying big long-term for the majority of players these days, especially aging players. Even the BIG contracts this off-season seem more front-loaded (or giving the free agency option) that many in the past.

 

Just even looking at the Twins. Lynn is taking a chance that he can get a bigger payday if he has another successful season removed from free agency. It is a gamble, he may or may not, as age is still a factor. Logan Morrison happily signed a deal that will at least give him an optional year of play.

 

And we aren't talking poor house wages here, either. Heck, Ichiro signed for $750,000, which is more than he would make entering the normal workforce.

 

I'm not sure how the players can react and improve their chance of continuing to get a slice of the pie. Even if teams pay the 55% of revenue, the streams continue to oevrflow with bucks that the clear profit of a baseball team isn't hurt, and teams are mroe willing to stavblazise their salary lines now than in the past. Maybe players are just making TOO MUCH money and it is starting to backfire in the eyes of fans, who still think greedy owners deserve less than greedy players. Yes, ownership can keep the money if they win. Players also have to produce at a high level if they expect us fans to cheer their big salaries.

 

And the replacement stream continues and the player pool continues to be larger than ever!

[Deduno Abides]

  On 3/12/2018 at 9:58 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think you missed my point. I'm not comparing the quality of players but I am comparing the number of acquisitions. You can imagine Ryan signing any one of the guys acquired this offseason but I can't envision a scenario where he goes full-bore Pokemon and catches them all.

 

The scenarios are definitely different but Ryan was the GM for a mighty long time in different eras and playing in different ballparks. We never saw anything that even approaches this offseason... and that's me being pretty generous with Ryan's offseason moves. He was an extremely conservative GM, probably to a fault. That doesn't make him a bad GM per se but it means we watched too many uninspiring offseasons under his leadership.

Brock, your point is addressed in the paragraph “As to total quantity, . . .”

[Riverbrian]

I think Terry Ryan should have a statue outside of the stadium and I'm serious about that. The man will always have my respect but even if you added up his aggressiveness over every single year of his time in the aggregate.

 

It would not equal this off season all by itself. 

 

The most aggressive off seasons for the Twins were during years that TR wasn't here. Lavine and then you go all the way back to Smith. 

 

I'm not saying aggressiveness is always the right move but it's pretty clear that Terry Ryan was never close to the definition... right or wrong. 

[Rhino and Compass]

I think two things in favor of changing from TR to the current regime

1) The team had lost for 6 straight years, and their investment in a new stadium hadn't yet translated to wins. It was just time for a change.

2) The organization under Terry Ryan just couldn't seem to develop starting pitching. They couldn't evaluate when to trade their prospects, and they never seemed to work out in the Majors. The Twins needed to improve their pitching organizationally, and this change sought out not only to develop and evaluate pitching talent. There is nothing to suggest that this has been a failure.

 

On the other hand, yes, I think TR and fiends were excellent at player acquisition, and that goes a long way towards the core that is in place now. I just never trusted him with a rotation

[old nurse]

 

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:34 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Rodney is not a scrapheap guy and Sanchez wasn’t guaranteed an MLB contract.

Rodney at 4 million when closers are getting  8 or more may not be scrap heap, but close enough. Same for Duke, Same for Aybar  Pineda has a ton of potential that has not been seen for a few years before his last injury. Sanchez has a non guaranteed contract but a major league roster spot and will get a good chunk of change for being cut. . Lynn and Morrison are the value deals that Ryan would do.  That leaves Reed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:44 PM, Deduno Abides said:

Ryan would sign players like Rodney and Duke. It’s questionable if he would have signed Reed, although he may have recognized the change in value for relievers and the relative bargain Reed offered.

 

It’s hard to know about Odorizzi, Morrison and Lynn. Ryan simply wasn’t faced with similar opportunities, particularly Lynn and Morrison. It would not have been that out of character to trade a mid-tier prospect for a starter like Odorizzi.

 

As to total quantity, it’s hard to know, because the relievers were earlier. Whether Ryan would have stopped then and not gotten the last three under any cost or if he would have recognized the unique opportunities, it’s hard to say.

Lynn could be Ervin Santana or Ricky Nolasco. Ryan just paid full price because he never had an offseason market like Falvine had. May never have that again.

[old nurse]

 

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:14 AM, Sconnie said:

Lynn could be Ervin Santana or Ricky Nolasco. Ryan just paid full price because he never had an offseason market like Falvine had. May never have that again.

Odorizzi could be Rick Reed

[jokin]

 

  On 3/12/2018 at 6:21 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I credit the Ryan regime for finding this current corps of talent; this group is very capable of winning the whole thing. On the other hand, it would have been out of character for Ryan to cut Plouffe or buy out Perkins, and those types of moves are also necessary to winning.

 

Cutting dead weight seemed to be a painful exercise for TR, one to be avoided or put off until tomorrow. But what about this.... How about during the Ryan rebuilding phase of just ONE trade in moving a significant veteran at peak value?

 

Major aspect of failure during the previous regime that would have accelerated the Twins much sooner out of this (mostly) lost decade.

[howieramone2]

 

  On 3/12/2018 at 9:49 PM, Thrylos said:

You have TR to thank for the fact that Phil Hughes had occupied a spot on the 40- and 25-man roster the past few seasons and will do so next season.

 

Ryan extended Hughes (and Capps and Pelfrey before him.)   Ryan would had extended Mauer and Dozier already.

 

As far as the "Twins' young core" goes, other than Buxton and Berrios who were drafted in 2012, Polanco Sano, Kepler, and Rosario were signed and drafted when Bill Smith and not Terry Ryan was at helm.  Just in case people forget...

Hughes had a very good first year and got an extension. That's a no-brainer. Enough of the hindsight. 

 

Just in case people forget, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era, not to mention he pioneered the IFA initiative circa 2005 or 2006. 

[howieramone2]

 

  On 3/13/2018 at 8:36 AM, jokin said:

Cutting dead weight seemed to be a painful exercise for TR, one to be avoided or put off until tomorrow. But what about this.... How about during the Ryan rebuilding phase of just ONE trade in moving a significant veteran at peak value?

 

Major aspect of failure during the previous regime that would have accelerated the Twins much sooner out of this (mostly) lost decade.

He traded what he had to trade for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. In other words, the teardown was completed within months. Name a mid-market team that completed their rebuild faster than the Twins. No one has ever been able to do that.

[jokin]

 

  On 3/13/2018 at 2:47 PM, howieramone2 said:

He traded what he had to trade for Alex Meyer and Trevor May.

 

In other words, the teardown was completed within months.

 

Name a mid-market team that completed their rebuild faster than the Twins.

 

No one has ever been able to do that.

 

No. Not sure whether Span was traded at peak, Revere irrelevant.  (You left out multiple obvious others)

 

No. The teardown continued for multiple years, with the team spinning its wheels when Ryan was canned.  A true teardown would have meant that Mauer would have been persuaded to move to Boston in the multiple opportunities to move him there.

 

Many teams have rebuilt faster than KC or MN, historically speaking.

 

Wrong. Ryan was removed by ownership because it was obvious that the team was going nowhere through the never-ending recycling of retreads and deadenders and failures to capitalize on timely personnel moves on those with value... and he had failed to deliver on any of his goals, timelines or promises. And that he was working off a 20th Century script vs. a Brave New World of scores of Ivy League mathematics and physics majors- veritable rocket scientists with a scientific approach that both Ryan and Gardy never understood the implications of- and publicly disdained.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 3/13/2018 at 2:38 PM, howieramone2 said:

Hughes had a very good first year and got an extension. That's a no-brainer. Enough of the hindsight.

Actually this offseason highlights the readily apparent problems with the Hughes extension. Just like how everyone loves Lynn with the flexibility and low risk of his 1/12 contract versus, say, a predicted contract of 4/56, we still had Hughes on a 2/16 deal coming off his very good season, but we tore that up for a 5/58 deal instead. Not impossible to justify, nothing that was going to sink the franchise or anything, but still a questionable move.

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 3/13/2018 at 2:38 PM, howieramone2 said:

Just in case people forget, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era

Do you have a cite for that? I am pretty sure TR was in a more generic advisory position during the Smith years. I've never seen the claim that he was "in charge" of anything as large as IFA during that time.

[howieramone2]

 

  On 3/13/2018 at 3:37 PM, spycake said:

Do you have a cite for that? I am pretty sure TR was in a more generic advisory position during the Smith years. I've never seen the claim that he was "in charge" of anything as large as IFA during that time.

LaVelle wrote an article in the Strib. I've cited it several times previously.