Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Third Base

[Deduno Abides]

That might be the most cherry picked ever. Why can't we just look at runs created, or Ops, or something that is close to measuring the outcomes he produced?

Mike, these stats may not be on the back of Sano’s baseball card, but they are what other teams are looking at. The inability to hit breaking pitches, control the strike zone and make adjustments as opponents make their book on you are common career limiters. These stats exemplify Sano’s problems in these areas.

[Deduno Abides]

That might be the most cherry picked ever. Why can't we just look at runs created, or Ops, or something that is close to measuring the outcomes he produced?

That might be the most cherry picked ever. Why can't we just look at runs created, or Ops, or something that is close to measuring the outcomes he produced?

And if you want to go with OPS, last year 57 players age 25 and younger had at least 400 PAs. Sano had the 12th highest OPS, which is good, but not an omen of a superstar, especially when he really doesn’t add any other value.

 

Further, his K rate in this group was second worst to Joey Gallo. This matters more than you may think, because in playoff baseball, hits are harder to come by. Good regular season stats matter less when every pitcher is good and they all have strikeout pitches. The ability to put the bat on the ball becomes of higher importance. Sano needs to fix his problems.

[Doubles]

 

For whatever reason, Sano ripping seems to be something of a sport for some fans.  I just don't get it.  This kid is one of the best talents we've seen in our uniform in decades and it feels like we're trying to run him out of town.  

Curious to know your thoughts on these questions:

 

* Do you think Sano can be very good to great defensively?  

 

* Do you think Sano's value to the Twins is significantly higher at 3rd base? 

 

* Do you think Sano's value to the Twins is reduced if he has to move from 3rd base to 1st base?

 

* Do you think Sano's value drops even further if he moves to full-time DH? 

 

* Do you think Sano will crush at the plate whether he weighs 250, 280, or 300 pounds?

 

* Do you think the higher his weight gets the more difficult it will be for him to stay on the field?

 

[Doubles]

 

The same columnists who were discussing Sano's off-season weight issues were applauding Perkins's venture into home brewing and fried food...

 

Helps to be a Minnesotan vs a Dominican as far as the pundits are concerned...

Sometimes people are as much, if not more, preoccupied with the messenger as they are the message.

 

Does anyone freak out when Phil Miller or LaVelle mention Sano's weight?  But some people lose their minds if Reusse or Souhan go there.    

 

Shoot, there was even a Sano article here on TD a while back that had the word 'Eat' in the title.  Pretty sure that was no coincidence...  

Edited March 13, 2018 by Doubles

[Vanimal46]

Curious to know your thoughts on these questions:

 

* Do you think Sano can be very good to great defensively?

 

* Do you think Sano's value to the Twins is significantly higher at 3rd base?

 

* Do you think Sano's value to the Twins is reduced if he has to move from 3rd base to 1st base?

 

* Do you think Sano's value drops even further if he moves to full-time DH?

 

* Do you think Sano will crush at the plate whether he weighs 250, 280, or 300 pounds?

 

* Do you think the higher his weight gets the more difficult it will be for him to stay on the field?

My answers to your questions:

 

No.

 

Yes. He should stick at 3B as long as he can.

 

Not a significant reduction. Most all of his value comes from his bat.

 

Not really. His best professional season was 2015 where he was a primary DH and crushing the ball.

 

Yes. Hasn't he proven that already by still crushing the ball over the last 3 seasons at different weight totals?

 

Probably. He's doing just fine right now though.

[laloesch]

 

Perkins was quite portly, and didn't appear to be well conditioned.
But, as Levi said, not multiple threads about his weight and conditioning.

 

The same columnists who were discussing Sano's off-season weight issues were applauding Perkins's venture into home brewing and fried food...

 

Helps to be a Minnesotan vs a Dominican as far as the pundits are concerned...

 

Let me get this straight your comparing Glen Perkins at 6'-0" and 205 lbs. to Sano whose 6'-4" and approximately 290 lbs.?  ....yeah okay

[Thrylos]

 

Mike, these stats may not be on the back of Sano’s baseball card, but they are what other teams are looking at. The inability to hit breaking pitches, control the strike zone and make adjustments as opponents make their book on you are common career limiters.

 

Confused.  Are you talking about Sano or Buxton?

[Deduno Abides]

Confused.  Are you talking about Sano or Buxton?

Sano. Do you have a comment about Buxton?

[Thrylos]

 

Sano. Do you have a comment about Buxton?

 

The inability to hit breaking pitches, control the strike zone and make adjustments as opponents make their book on you are common career limiters.

[Deduno Abides]

The inability to hit breaking pitches, control the strike zone and make adjustments as opponents make their book on you are common career limiters.

Of course, but Buxton’s stats in those areas last year were better than Sano’s, even with Buxton’s miserable start.

 

Buxton also adds value as one of the top players in the majors in at least two categories.

[Thrylos]

 

Of course, but Buxton’s stats in those areas last year were better than Sano’s, even with Buxton’s miserable start.
 

 

Data:

2017

Buxton: 7.4 BB%, 29.4 K%, 0.25 BB/K, .312 wOBA, 90 wRC+
Sano: 11.2 BB%, 35.8 K%, 0.31 BB/K, .361 wOBA, 124 wRC+

 

See that BB/K? Sano's strike zone control was better than Buxton's.  And of course, their offensive production (wOBA, wRC+) was not even in the ballpark.

And this is not about defense or whether someone adds value another way.  It was about:

 

 

 

The inability to hit breaking pitches, control the strike zone and make adjustments as opponents make their book on you are common career limiters.

Edited March 13, 2018 by Thrylos

[Deduno Abides]

Data:

2017

Buxton: 7.4 BB%, 29.4 K%, 0.25 BB/K, .312 wOBA, 90 wRC+

Sano: 11.2 BB%, 35.8 K%, 0.31 BB/K, .361 wOBA, 124 wRC+

 

See that BB/K? Sano's strike zone control was better than Buxton's.  And of course, their offensive production (wOBA, wRC+) was not even in the ballpark.

And this is not about defense or whether someone adds value another way.  It was about:

Look, I’m not going to go further into a debate about whether Sano or Buxton has worse strike zone control, but I will say that a defense of Sano by saying he was better than Buxton after how Buxton started the year is in itself not a great case for Sano.

 

If you do want to discuss Buxton’s weaknesses, I’ve got a hunch you’ll have a chance soon. Unless the world stops, a centerfield thread should be posted in the next few days.

[TheLeviathan]

Curious to know your thoughts on these questions:

 

* Do you think Sano can be very good to great defensively?  

 

* Do you think Sano's value to the Twins is significantly higher at 3rd base? 

 

* Do you think Sano's value to the Twins is reduced if he has to move from 3rd base to 1st base?

 

* Do you think Sano's value drops even further if he moves to full-time DH? 

 

* Do you think Sano will crush at the plate whether he weighs 250, 280, or 300 pounds?

 

* Do you think the higher his weight gets the more difficult it will be for him to stay on the field?

No, but he can be adequate like last year and thats just fine.

 

Yes it is. Our FO seems to agree since they just gave a 1B/DH a two year deal. Thats rather damning to your implied demise of Sano at 3B.

 

As for your weight questions, I dont have intimate knowledge of Sano's health data to assess what he "should" weigh. Any bold assertions to the contrary require a hefty amount of layman medical hubris.

 

I hope he is healthy and focused on being a force. I hope the organization is holding him to account on that. Im happy to see the organization remaining comitted to him at third.

 

And I hope he kicks some serious butt this year.

[Doubles]

 

No, but he can be adequate like last year and thats just fine.

Yes it is. Our FO seems to agree since they just gave a 1B/DH a two year deal. Thats rather damning to your implied demise of Sano at 3B.

As for your weight questions, I dont have intimate knowledge of Sano's health data to assess what he "should" weigh. Any bold assertions to the contrary require a hefty amount of layman medical hubris.

I hope he is healthy and focused on being a force. I hope the organization is holding him to account on that. Im happy to see the organization remaining comitted to him at third.

And I hope he kicks some serious butt this year.

I think Sano has the ability to be very good, if not great defensively.  Not much denying his natural ability.  Time will tell if he wants to put in the necessary work to excel in the field.  Corey Koskie and Justin Morneau are two examples of guys that came to the Twins pretty raw in the field and through hard work made themselves excellent defenders.

 

I'd love for you to be right about Sano's 'demise at 3B'.  I just don't see it if he keeps packing on the poundcake.

 

I believe Sano will crush at the plate (home plate, that is) regardless if he's 250, 280, or 300 pounds.  That's what he does, and the fact that his is a large human being undoubtedly plays into why he's such a powerful hitter.  But I wouldn't worry one iota about his abilities or power diminishing if he was carrying the equivalent of a bag of salt pellets less than what he currently is.

 

I won't even pretend to understand what 'layman medical hubris' means.  But I find it quite disingenuous to believe his chances of staying on the field, and in the field, are unrelated to Sano's fitness level.  

 

[TheLeviathan]

I won't even pretend to understand what 'layman medical hubris' means. But I find it quite disingenuous to believe his chances of staying on the field, and in the field, are unrelated to Sano's fitness level.

 

What is disingenuous is believing you know anything about his fitness level. You were among those quick to jump on him based on rumors. Rumors that photographs quickly squashed, yet the crowing about his weight continues. Edited March 14, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Doubles]

 

What is disingenuous is believing you know anything about his fitness level. You were among those quick to jump on him based on rumors. Rumors that photographs quickly squashed, yet the crowing about his weight continues.

Let's settle this:

 

Sano plays 138 or more games this season, I won't question his fitness on this forum until Opening Day 2020.

 

Sano plays less than 137 games, you stop being a Sano apologist until at least Opening Day 2020.

 

Also, winner chooses the loser's avatar for the entire month of April, 2019.

 

Deal?

Edited March 14, 2018 by Doubles

[TheLeviathan]

Safe to say you have missed the point.

 

Go Sano!

[Mike Sixel]

Lower than I'd hoped....is Sano really only going to be around top 10?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-third-base/