Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Third Base

[Doubles]

 

Concur, concur, concur. This team (until this year with Morrison) doesn't sign power hitters. He's the first power hitter they've developed since Morneau. And people can't ship him out of town quick enough...

I also think he'll be an All-Star again, and come close to 40 HRs.

I want Sano to get into better shape.  I want him to play the position that maximizes his value to the Twins for as long as possible.  That position is third base.  I also want Sano to play more than 120 games this season, ideally around 150.  As long as he is in the lineup, he will crush dingers.  That's the easy part for him.  

 

I don't see anyone trying to "Ship him out of town."  And I see zero issue with wanting to see the best possible Miguel Sano at the position that maximizes his worth to the team.

[howieramone2]

 

I'm a little concerned that there's not another prospect that could be ready to step in at 3B in the next two years. Because I think it's fair to be concerned about Sano's ability to stick at the position or in the organization and Escobar isn't a young guy any longer. People are worried about organizational depth at catcher; I'm worried about it at 3B. Right now, none of the middle infield prospects we have starting to claw their way up the ranks look like contenders to shift over there, and our best prospect looks to be a) several years away, and hardly a sure thing. (I'm rooting like hell for Blankenhorn, but he's got some things to work on)

 

For this season, we're in excellent shape. Next year? Two years from now? the poundage isn't the only weight resting on Sano.

I'm more concerned with 3B also. He's only 19, but I can see Wander Javier being moved over to 3B to make room for Lewis.

[jkcarew]

 

As for the backups/pipeline.....it's not pretty unless they move a SS, which did not seem to be addressed here at all. 

Agreed.  That's why it wouldn't shock me that, when contemplating signing Dozier, it would cross the FO minds to consider whether Dozier could be moved to 3rd...assuming they love Gordon and see Mauer with a different role.

 

I have no idea if that's a viable consideration at this point...but the bat plays there (currently anyway), and he's played a ton of professional baseball on the left side, including his first 83 games with the big club.  I seem to recall that his move from SS to 2B was based on range, not arm.  (I could be wrong.)

[Nick Nelson]

 

"It's important to keep in mind that he was extremely limited in his ability to condition this past offseason. To pin the lack of weight loss on disinterest would be ignorant." So that's why Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson managed to stay in shape despite leg injuries -- they were ignorant? What does your shin have to do with how much you eat? Apparently I am ignorant too.

People are going to believe what they want on this subject. I'll just say this much: Peterson and (my goodness ESPECIALLY) Bridgewater are not built like Miguel Sano. Genetically he is simply a big kid, and his size fuels his incredible power.

 

Also, his rumored weigh-in this spring (per Reusse) is about the same as his exit physical in 2017 so it's not like he has added weight. It's just hard to lose a ton when you're unable to put in the physical conditioning work. 

[bean5302]

Sano is heavier, shorter and arguably slower than Kennys Vargas. I'm not joking or exaggerating. Statcast's 2017 sprint speed has Sano at 26.9mph and Vargas at 26.6mph. Vargas has dropped weight and worked on his conditioning. Sano has gained and not been working out. Would anybody here suggest moving Kennys Vargas to 3B?

 

I've never seen Vargas throw so I don't know as Vargas has a cannon arm or anything, but lets be realistic of Sano's potential to play a full season at 3B without dropping 50lbs regardless of whether or not a fan watching a video thinks Sano looks good or is hiding his weight well.

[gunnarthor]

 

Would anybody here suggest moving Kennys Vargas to 3B?

 

 

Of course not. Vargas isn't a third baseman. Sano, on the other hand, is. And he's played there, fairly well defensively, so far in his career. 

[Deduno Abides]

In addition to fitness and conduct concerns, Sano has strikeout and fielding issues. He needs to prioritize his fitness so he can maximize the opportunity to work on those. Sure, he’s got prodigious power, but so does Mark Reynolds. If Sano can’t work on his fitness when he’s injured, then it will be hard for him to work on his fielding and batting eye.

[jimbo92107]

 

It's not just Sano's extra weight that worries me. It's what that weight will do to his feet, ankles, knees, etc. Every step he takes with fifty extra pounds on his belt is a much heavier step, much greater impact. He will get injured carrying that much weight. 

Why do I get the feeling that everybody upvoting my comment knows what it's like to have sore feet from being overweight? ;-)

Like me, of course...

[Thrylos]

 

 

 There's not likely a larger fielder outside of first base in the game.

 

 

Aaron Judge listed at 282; he is larger.

 

Adam Dunn played OF well into the end of his career.  He was listed at 285.

 

Matter of fact, now that Lynn is onboard Sano is not the largest player in the Twins as well.  Nor was he last season; Colon was.  But for some reason, Colon's weight was "cute".  As was Puckett's and Newman's for some reason...

I just don't get the bias against Sano.  Let's see what he does at the field and then start being critical.

 

[slash129]

 

Maybe. Escobar is a UFA after this season. And if I've learned anything this offseason, it's to not offer long term contracts to players entering their decline phase. So that would eliminate 30 year old Escobar in 2019...

 

I understand this sentiment, but, assuming the Twins won't be in on the Machado sweepstakes - and he wants to play SS anyway, Escobar and Marwin Gonzalez are going to be the youngest UFA 3Bs in their market (both in their age 30 seasons). A three year deal buys years 30-32.  Gonzalez is probably going to cost a lot more.

 

With Escobar's positional flexibility, he could easily slide back to a swiss-army-knife role in the last year of that 3 year deal, if a younger player was pushing for the 3B role and decline was starting to set in.

[ahart10]

The weights not really an issue for me. He’s still young and those sort of things don’t catch up to you for years, Prince Fielder. By then he’ll be playing for some other team on a free agent deal.

[TNTwinsFan]

If you look at the weight distribution on Sano, most of it is in his Sequoia sized legs and his Paul Bunyan sized shoulders and chest. He doesn't have the Kennys Vargas build at all. When Vargas moves, he looks stiff. Sano has some fluidity and flexibility in the field too. Sure, he could stand to loose some weight, but he didn't look bad at all titanium rod in his leg and all.)

 

As for the 3B of the future; I think it'll be Bechtold that surprises some this year and he starts breaking into the Top 10 Prospects in the organization discussions by mid-season. That kid has a tremendous eye at the plate, a terrific hit tool, great defense, and can steal a base (24 in the season we drafted him). He's 21 and will enter his first minor league full season this year. Could be a sleeper to move up quickly in the system in spite of the Javier's, Lewis', etc. Oh....and he's my 2018 AAP so I may be a little biased.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Aaron Judge listed at 282; he is larger.

 

Adam Dunn played OF well into the end of his career.  He was listed at 285.

 

Matter of fact, now that Lynn is onboard Sano is not the largest player in the Twins as well.  Nor was he last season; Colon was.  But for some reason, Colon's weight was "cute".  As was Puckett's and Newman's for some reason...

I just don't get the bias against Sano.  Let's see what he does at the field and then start being critical.

Ok, so you've named one player who might weigh more (and is also 3-4 inches taller) and another who retired three years ago and was a notorious atrocity defensively.

 

I said "fielders" in the excerpt you quoted, so Lynn and Colon aren't relevant. Also I suggest taking a look at some pictures of Puckett and Newman when they were Sano's age before bringing them up in this conversation. Not comparable cases. 

[RichReese]

 

I'm more concerned with 3B also. He's only 19, but I can see Wander Javier being moved over to 3B to make room for Lewis.

I have been thinking about Rooker, though I know little about his defensive abilities.

 

[birddog]

Any talk about trading him doesn't bother me at all because I know that Falvine is way too smart to even think about trading him. He is already Big Papi-like in size, stats, and charisma. He is at least adequate at 3B and his bat offsets any deficiencies he may have defensively. If he is hitting in the 9th inning in a noncompetitive game, I'm sticking around to watch him hit. I would Buxton also, but who else generates that much excitement for Twins fans?

 

We'd all feel much better if he took better care of himself, but we felt the same way about Hrbek and Puckett and they turned out okay. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt that the metal in his leg prevented him from working out like he wanted to and when healthy he will tip the scales at a number we all can live with. Many of us still have nightmares that we gave up on Papi. IMO Sano is much too valuable and exciting to trade him for anything short of one of the top 15-20 SP in baseball. I hope and expect he's at 3B for at least another 3-5 years.

[TheLeviathan]

I want Sano to get into better shape. I want him to play the position that maximizes his value to the Twins for as long as possible. That position is third base. I also want Sano to play more than 120 games this season, ideally around 150. As long as he is in the lineup, he will crush dingers. That's the easy part for him.

 

I don't see anyone trying to "Ship him out of town." And I see zero issue with wanting to see the best possible Miguel Sano at the position that maximizes his worth to the team.

We all want this for all of our players, but only Sano gets villified to such a degree.

 

I appreciate those in this thread who point out the three simple facts that matter: Sano is a ferocious power hitter, the team needs his ability, and he has been a capable fielder.

 

Some who want him to be Villain #1 might be wise to remember that.

[Doubles]

 

We all want this for all of our players, but only Sano gets villified to such a degree.

I appreciate those in this thread who point out the three simple facts that matter: Sano is a ferocious power hitter, the team needs his ability, and he has been a capable fielder.

Some who want him to be Villain #1 might be wise to remember that.

Name me any other Twins players on the verge of being moved off their most valuable position based on their lack of conditioning & I will light them up just the same.  

[Shaitan]

 

Concur, concur, concur. This team (until this year with Morrison) doesn't sign power hitters. He's the first power hitter they've developed since Morneau. And people can't ship him out of town quick enough...

I also think he'll be an All-Star again, and come close to 40 HRs.

 

Team leaders questioned a young Morneau's maturity too. I don't remember the pitchforks coming for him.

 

(I understand that Morneau didn't have an MLB investigation at the time, but people were saying this stuff before that news broke as well.)

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Name me any other Twins players on the verge of being moved off their most valuable position based on their lack of conditioning & I will light them up just the same.

 

No threads here blasted Glen Perkins like this. Certainly not with the intensity and frequency. Nor did our favorite local Sano basher. (Reusse)

 

And his move from 3B seems entirely driven by speculation of TD posters, so Im not sure what value that really has other than a self-created reason to attack our best player.

[Doubles]

 

No threads here blasted Glen Perkins like this. Certainly not with the intensity and frequency. Nor did our favorite local Sano basher. (Reusse)

 

And his move from 3B seems entirely driven by speculation of TD posters, so Im not sure what value that really has other than a self-created reason to attack our best player.

Blasted Perkins for what? He injured his arm. You’re either in the lineup or you’re not. Hard to help the team from the sidelines. Same as it’s hard to be a team’s best player only playing 120 games a season.

[jkcarew]

 

Statcast's 2017 sprint speed has Sano at 26.9mph and Vargas at 26.6mph. Vargas has dropped weight and worked on his conditioning. Sano has gained and not been working out. Would anybody here suggest moving Kennys Vargas to 3B?

You mean feet per second...

 

This is a great example of bias based on what a player looks like.  You assume (you are not the only one...not close to the only one) that these times are slow because these guys are so large.

 

26.9 fps is in the top half of speed for ML third-basemen.  In fact, 26.9 is close to the average speed for MLB overall...all positions.  (Incidentally, Vargas's time is easily in the top half for first-basemen.)

 

Not that strait-line sprint speed has much to do with playing a quality 1B or 3B.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/sprint-speed-shows-fastest-at-each-position/c-238290228

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Blasted Perkins for what? He injured his arm. You’re either in the lineup or you’re not. Hard to help the team from the sidelines. Same as it’s hard to be a team’s best player only playing 120 games a season.

Perkins was quite portly, and didn't appear to be well conditioned.

But, as Levi said, not multiple threads about his weight and conditioning.

[Thrylos]

 

Perkins was quite portly, and didn't appear to be well conditioned.
But, as Levi said, not multiple threads about his weight and conditioning.

 

The same columnists who were discussing Sano's off-season weight issues were applauding Perkins's venture into home brewing and fried food...

 

Helps to be a Minnesotan vs a Dominican as far as the pundits are concerned...

[h2oface]

I am not one that is concerned about Sano, weight or no weight. I think he will be just fine. There is a cultural latino thing. All you have to do is live in and around LA to see and hear it. It is not malicious. Childish, yes. Persistent, yes. Hopeful, yes. Mean spirited, no.  A super rich big child, that needs a trusted mentor. Missed the normal schooling because he was playing baseball.

 

I have the same intramedullary rod/nail in my right tibia since 1991. And it was to repair a complete Tib/fib break, not a slight annoying stress fracture. It was very quick healing, and I ran a marathon on it. Tons of physicality in addition. Never a bit of trouble, to this day. Let him play baseball, and play third base.

[h2oface]

 

People are going to believe what they want on this subject. I'll just say this much: Peterson and (my goodness ESPECIALLY) Bridgewater are not built like Miguel Sano. Genetically he is simply a big kid, and his size fuels his incredible power.

 

Also, his rumored weigh-in this spring (per Reusse) is about the same as his exit physical in 2017 so it's not like he has added weight. It's just hard to lose a ton when you're unable to put in the physical conditioning work. 

 

So, inquiring minds want to know..... what exactly was it? Is it some secret? You sure it isn't....... 239 lbs? 

[Riverbrian]

 

Ok, so you've named one player who might weigh more (and is also 3-4 inches taller) and another who retired three years ago and was a notorious atrocity defensively.

 

I said "fielders" in the excerpt you quoted, so Lynn and Colon aren't relevant. Also I suggest taking a look at some pictures of Puckett and Newman when they were Sano's age before bringing them up in this conversation. Not comparable cases. 

 

24 Year Olds can eat metal garbage cans and carry on just fine.

 

 

The price for his lifestyle comes later. 

[Deduno Abides]

Last year, ten Twins had at least 400 PAs, including Buxton and his terrible first half. Of these ten, Sano was last or near last in the following hitting stats: strikeout rate, hitting sliders, hitting change-ups, hitting cutters, swinging strikes, contact at pitches in the zone (even though his swing rate at pitches in the zone was 0.2% below the most), contact at pitches out of the zone (even though he got the most pitches out of the zone).

 

He was the best at hitting fastballs, but he saw the fewest. That trend will likely continue. Hopefully the negative stats will improve. His talent is not in doubt. His ability to work hard enough to maximize his talent is the question. This isn’t even a weight or fitness issue. It’s whether he can put in the work to become at least a league average hitter against sliders and change-ups and/or learn to lay off of them.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Blasted Perkins for what? He injured his arm. You’re either in the lineup or you’re not. Hard to help the team from the sidelines. Same as it’s hard to be a team’s best player only playing 120 games a season.

 

Right, you aren't even aware that there were conditioning concerns there.  You should go look back at some excerpts of Jack Morris on Barreiro's show.  Morris rips Sano, but he also ripped Perkins so I can respect his consistency and fairness.  I can't say the same for everyone else ripping Sano.  

 

If injuries are your concern, I expect you to start a thread soon about how Buxton can't stay on the field either.

 

For whatever reason, Sano ripping seems to be something of a sport for some fans.  I just don't get it.  This kid is one of the best talents we've seen in our uniform in decades and it feels like we're trying to run him out of town.  

[Mike Sixel]

Last year, ten Twins had at least 400 PAs, including Buxton and his terrible first half. Of these ten, Sano was last or near last in the following hitting stats: strikeout rate, hitting sliders, hitting change-ups, hitting cutters, swinging strikes, contact at pitches in the zone (even though his swing rate at pitches in the zone was 0.2% below the most), contact at pitches out of the zone (even though he got the most pitches out of the zone).

He was the best at hitting fastballs, but he saw the fewest. That trend will likely continue. Hopefully the negative stats will improve. His talent is not in doubt. His ability to work hard enough to maximize his talent is the question. This isn’t even a weight or fitness issue. It’s whether he can put in the work to become at least a league average hitter against sliders and change-ups and/or learn to lay off of them.

That might be the most cherry picked ever. Why can't we just look at runs created, or Ops, or something that is close to measuring the outcomes he produced?

[Twins33]

So, inquiring minds want to know..... what exactly was it? Is it some secret? You sure it isn't....... 239 lbs?

 

"Sano, who is 6-foot-4, weighed 290 pounds when diagnosed with the stress reaction."

http://www.startribune.com/despite-investigation-miguel-sano-will-report-to-twins-camp-on-time/473965643/

 

So that was in August and I think there was an article that said he was at that weight in the exit physical though google isn't finding that. Just figured I'd help the convo with a quote.

Edited March 13, 2018 by Twins33