Article: Opportunity Cost

[killertwinfan]

 

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that? What a nice piece to have waiting at AAA but tough for the Duff Man. He certainly seemed likely to make the team before this crazy offseason.

I would like to understand the rationale that set up this move. Yes, 20/20 hindsight shows this move to be odd, however, it never seemed to make sense.  It seems like when Burdi went high in the rule 5 draft, the FO panicked to make a move to offset the loss.  Pulling at straws here.  Like I have said in the past, this FO, is making great strides and this one seems out of step with everything else they have done.  

[MN_ExPat]

 

Maybe.  But that was a horrible bullpen.  And he is a novelty type of pitcher.  And novelty (unlike stuff) tends to wear out.

Some people might argue that Busenitz was or that Belisle was or that Kintzler was...

 

Kinda tough to point at the one-eyed person among the blind and saying that he should be around...

Novelty type of pitcher?   Just because he throws sidearm?  

 

So he's kind of like Neshek was/is a novelty type pitcher?   Because he hasn't had any type of success in professional baseball at all.

[Tomj14]

 

. What happens if you give a guy like the 500 at bats?

 

 

IMO he gets exposed for the player he is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

Agreed. What's even weirder is that we managed to sign/acquire 7 MLB players this offseason, and didn't need Kinley's 40-man roster spot (or Vargas's) to add any of them. Obviously we were helped by the slow market, but I don't think we ever expected to return Kinley before mid-March either. And if we didn't like Burdi, it seems like Bard or Chargois would have been realistic possibilities to keep too, even without the benefit of the 60-day DL.

 

Not a huge deal, obviously marginal gains/losses compared to our main offseason moves, but worth noting among obsessive baseball fans.

 

Of course, Kinley could still make the team, if we carry 12 pitchers and Hughes is our 5th SP / long reliever.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that?

You are correct. Duffey actually has 2 option years remaining -- he only spent 7 days on optional assignment in 2015, so he didn't use one there. His only option year used so far was in 2016.

[Tomj14]

 

Keep Vargas.  his hitting is timely.   Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

 

In the last 3 years.(avg/obp)

None on - .267/.325

Runners on - .214/.289

scoring position - .207/.267

bases loaded - .235/.211

leading off - .244/.308

scoring position 2 outs -.147/.227

 

Is that clutch?

 

Also last year they thought so much of him as a right handed hitter, they gave him 65 at bats and hit .185, he was good the two years prior.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Tomj14

[jkcarew]

 

Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

No. He. Can't.

[dbminn]

Vargas is definitely the odd man out. He still has a chance to be a good DH but I don't think it will be with the Twins. I could see him DH for the White Sox (or maybe the Rays). Otherwise, he should go overseas and get some PA.

 

If Sano isn't with the team to start the season, IMO bench will be: Garver, Grossman, Granite and Adrianza. Granite to AAA when Sano is available. A surprise might be LaMarre instead of Granite to start the season. Let Granite get his ups in AAA to start the year and let the older guy sit on the bench.

 

I predict Hughes starts the season on the DL. He's released in mid-April if his stuff doesn't come back. He's not Falvine's guy. Duffey or Mejia in long relief to start the season. 

 

Twins will try and keep Kinley. Easy velo with a nice slider. I think his mechanics are pretty reasonable (based on a whole two innings of TV). Either he clears waivers and they make a trade with Miami or Pressly could be out.  This is my "hot take" impact. IMO, Pressly is a little like Vargas - a lot of talent but maybe no room.

[ewen21]

 

"I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there."

Because that's what they're used him as since he's been here.

 

That's the same rationale as, "it's this way because this is the way we have done it the last two years"

 

Because we used him as a 4th outfielder doesn't mean it has to continue for a third year.  Seriously, it seems like some people feel like Grossman needs to be here.  He does not.  He is a perfect example of someone who can be easily replaced by a better player at virtually the same cost.

[h2oface]

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....  Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

Edited March 12, 2018 by h2oface

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Sanchez guarantee was indeed strange, even if it was on the margins of roster and payroll. He had minor league deal, nonroster invite written all over him. And he signed right at the same time as we acquired Odorizzi, and we knew about the slow market for Lynn/Cobb, so it's not like we were that desperate at the time.

[Mr. Brooks]

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc..... Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

They went to arbitration with Gibson so they could learn the process.

[h2oface]

 

They went to arbitration with Gibson so they could learn the process.

 

Because they don't know the process?.... in all their previous experiences and positions that got them the jobs they now have? Right. That's what was said, but I don't buy that spin at all. Hopefully, they already were well aware of the process.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Because they don't know the process?.... in all their previous experiences and positions that got them the jobs they now have? Right. That's what was said, but I don't buy that spin at all. Hopefully, they already were well aware of the process.

They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB).

 

You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.

[old nurse]

 

Disagree. 4.50 ERA in his rookie campaign with Swing and miss material. 10.5% S/M rate. that was higher than Berrios' 9.4%. Think he has a good chance to be a typical number 3 in the rotation in the future years..

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game.   That is not a number 3.  Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,

[h2oface]

 

They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB).

 

You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.

 

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

 

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

Edited March 13, 2018 by h2oface

[Mr. Brooks]

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

 

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

But you don't mind assigning motives to the Twins FO for why they chose to take Gibson to arbitration?

[Mr. Brooks]

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game. That is not a number 3. Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,

He averaged exactly 6 IP per start in 2016. Unless my math isn't what it used to be.

22 starts, 132 IP.

[old nurse]

 

He averaged exactly 6 IP per start in 2016. Unless my math isn't what it used to be.
22 starts, 132 IP.

One year of exactly 6  My bad, Mejia has been pitching for how long?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

 

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

What bothers me is when people speculate wildly without a speck of evidence to support their opinion. Doubly so when that speculation casts people in a negative light for no reason.

[old nurse]

 

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....  Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

They as likely upped whatever they were offering Gibson just to get to the arbitration number, just as Gibson's agent lowered the asking price for arbitration.  If Gibson was a free agent he might not see that kind of money.

[Mr. Brooks]

One year of exactly 6 My bad, Mejia has been pitching for how long?

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?

I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

[ashbury]

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?

I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Age surely plays a role in this. Kershaw came up to the majors at 20. Being on an innings limit at that age would seem standard.

 

I compared game logs for Mejia and Berrios while writing my erlier post in the Lefties thread, and Berrios did indeed go deeper into games than Mejia during his stint in the high minors. But then, I'm not claiming Mejia has the same high-end potential than Berrios. Just - not so fast - let's not give up on him as a possible workhorse quite yet.

[old nurse]

 

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Strange comp. Mejia is no Kershaw. Kershaw spent only one full year in the minors and pitched  on average more than 6 inning per game since he was 22. So Mejia can be Kershaw. Love the optimism

[Twins33]

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?

I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

I remember during the Dozier rumors that anytime a Twins fan would question JDL or any other Dodger prospects small amount of IP per season the Dodgers fans would reply that they don't allow any of their SP prospects to pitch deep into games routinely.

 

So some kind of Dodger development plan? I don't know. I never checked to back this up.

 

Just looked at Brock Stewart, in the two seasons before his MLB callup he averaged less than six innings and it's not because he was pitching badly...based on the stats. So maybe true about the Dodgers? I'm not going to go through all their prospects to find out. Plus injuries etc may skew the numbers and be even more work to weed out.

Edited March 13, 2018 by Twins33

[Mr. Brooks]

Strange comp. Mejia is no Kershaw. Kershaw spent only one full year in the minors and pitched on average more than 6 inning per game since he was 22. So Mejia can be Kershaw. Love the optimism

Wasn't meant to be a comp. I'm just curious if it's common for any milb pitcher to average that many innings? I don't know. I just looked at Kershaw because there is zero doubt he's a great pitcher.

 

I'm genuinely curious how often milb pitchers average 6+ per start.

[ashbury]

Wasn't meant to be a comp. I'm just curious if it's common for any milb pitcher to average that many innings? I don't know. I just looked at Kershaw because there is zero doubt he's a great pitcher.

 

I'm genuinely curious how often milb pitchers average 6+ per start.

Going the other direction from Kershaw, how about Corey Kluber, who is undeniably a fine pitcher but who took a while to hit his stride. In 2011 at age 25 he made 27 starts at AAA Columbus, totaling 150 innings. That's just above five and a half innings - approximately his rate the previous 3 seasons too. The next season he was also at Columbus and started 21 games for 125 innings - stepping up to nearly 6 innings per at age 26.

 

Carlos Carrasco by contrast looks like he was averaging 6 innings per start for 5 years in the minors.

 

Think of some other pitchers and see what else you find.

[gil4]

 

Grossman is SCARY in the outfield.  He has run into Santana, Polanco and Buxton.  He made more errors than all LFers in the league in 2016 in just SEVENTY FIVE games.

 

I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there.

He was better in 2017 and he was better prior to 2016 in the field. He had a bad year with the glove in 2016. I'm not sure why - maybe he had some communication issues playing with some young guys, maybe he didn't put as much work into that side of the ball that year. I think I remember him acknowledging some struggles and putting extra work in to get better during the offseason prior to last year.

[AWOLNATION_11]

 

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....  Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

I'm not so much concerned that they wasted $417,000, but glad that they have the type of relationship with Pohlad that they could pivot to Lynn even though it was a waste of $417,000.  

[ashbury]

I'm not so much concerned that they wasted $417,000, but glad that they have the type of relationship with Pohlad that they could pivot to Lynn even though it was a waste of $417,000.  

I continue to believe that Pohlad doesn't stoop to that level of detail in the business. He likely does two big things, in conjunction with Dave St Peter: sets a general budget limit, and is in the approval chain for any contract longer than two years. Contracts of no more than two years will not be a likely burden to the next GM, if such a change would prove to be necessary. (If the front office were on thin ice, that approval process might become active for any multi-year contract.)

[biscuit]

I think Kennys Vargas is out.  He has the potential to be a David Ortiz type hitter.  But there's that word again - potential.  Good luck to you, Kennys.