Article: Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

[Tom Froemming]

The Twins offseason puzzle is now complete. Jon Heyman reported that the Twins were closing in on a deal for free agent starting pitcher Lance Lynn. That report was confirmed by Jon Morosi, who added it's a one-year pact worth $12 million. Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was first to report that the Twins have released Anibal Sanchez to make room on the 40-man roster.Lynn, 30, was considered one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market. After missing the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, the right-hander bounced back strong in 2017 with the St. Louis Cardinals to post a 3.43 ERA over 186.1 IP. He is considered a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm, though it’s worth noting that his ERA last year would have ranked second on the Twins staff.

 

He is part of a trio of free agent starting pitchers that have been victimized by an historically slow free agent market, as estimates last October predicted he would likely get a deal as high as $60M over four years. Just last week it was reported that he turned down a two-year deal from the Twins for $20 million. The one-year, $12 million deal is likely a compromise. It allows Lynn to explore the free agent market next year and gets the Twins a solid starter at a reasonable rate with no long-term commitment.

 

A lot has changed over the course of this offseason, but you'd still be hard pressed to paint this deal as anything other than an incredible bargain for the Twins. When it was announced Ervin Santana would miss the beginning of the year due to an injured finger, it would have been easy for Derek Falvey and the rest of the front office to panic and overpay the first free agent starting pitcher they could get to sign on the dotted line.

 

Instead, they signed veteran Anibal Sanchez to a low-risk deal (again, he has now been released) and traded from a position of depth to acquire Jake Odorizzi. Those moves afforded the front office the ability to take a hard stance on the rest of the free agent market, waiting for a good deal to land in their laps.

 

Lynn is not completely without concerns. His strikeout rate was down (7.4 K/9) and his walk rate up (3.8 K/9). He limped to the finish line last year with a 9.20 ERA over his last four starts. He also had the lowest BABIP among all qualified pitchers at .244, which is a far cry from his career mark of .297. Furthermore, he had by far the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.96) of his career, which has been entirely in the National League.

 

While there are certainly some red flags, it's important to remember that was Lynn's first season back from Tommy John surgery. Also, among the 144 pitchers who logged at least 500 innings from 2011-16, Lynn ranked 21st in FIP (3.36). That's a great track record upon which to rely when he is completely recovered.

 

Lynn most likely joins the Twins starting rotation plans immediately. That looks to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Lynn, as the tentative plan is for a four-man rotation at the beginning of the season, with a fifth starter only necessary a handful of times before mid-May. The Twins best pitcher last year, Ervin Santana, will likely return late April or early May to take the permanent fifth spot.

 

It remains to be seen how prepared Lynn will be to join the Twins on Opening Day. He reportedly has been working out in Jupiter, presumably building his pitch count. Most Twins pitchers are at the 60 pitch mark as of today, leaving about three more starts to get them to the 90-100 pitch mark. Depending on where Lynn is in his routine, he could begin the year with a few shorter than usual outings.

 

Since Lynn had the qualifying offer attached to him, the Twins will forfeit a draft pick. MLB Pipeline is reporting that'll be the No. 95 overall pick in the draft.

 

The signing puts the Twins payroll near $130 million for the year, up about $25 million from last year and the highest payroll in team history. Here are the details:

 

Download attachment: Payroll after Lynn.PNG

 

Here's a live stream on Twitter, if you're interested. I talked for 18 minutes, getting into some details about Lynn's aggressive TJ rehab schedule and usage by the Cardinals in 2017, as well as the rotation and 40-man roster fallout.

 

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[jud6312]

What was your favorite Anibal Sanchez moment?

[Deduno Abides]

AT the numbers reported, it’s a great signing.

 

Signed,

 

Not a big Lance Lynn fan, but hoping to be convinced otherwise

[Riverbrian]

1 Year 12 Million is what i'm hearing. 

 

Lynn should be upgrade over Mejia, Hughes and Sanchez.

 

Turn on the applause sign. 

[Tommygun921]

Saw $12 mill. Pretty crazy as he was offered $17+ from the Cards in Nov. Hindsights 20/20!

[NoCryingInBaseball]

I think this puts an explanation mark for the new front office's off-season acquisitions!

[KirbyDome89]

Not exactly exciting, but for one year it's hard to complain. 

 

Short term, "value," deals seem to be the MO of this FO. Hopefully the long term $$ is being saved for a slew of extensions for the core. 

[ashbury]

The cost is the modest salary, plus the loss of a draft pick. If he performs well, we can give a qualifying offer and more or less get the pick back; if he doesn't, then we don't.

 

Of course, after this off-season's experience, the draft pick maybe should be considered permanently gone; giving the QO may mean having him for another year.

[bustedstuff88]

Berrios, Lynn, Santana, Ordorizzi and then most likely Gibson is not a half bad rotation.

 

Guessing this means the 4 man rotation thing is a no-go?

 

Begins slow clap... 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Upgrade.

[TheLeviathan]

I preferred Cobb, but I love this move.  It was needed.

[Danchat]

Well, I certainly didn't expect to see this happening. I'm surprised he took the Twins deal, especially when we heard that they had offered him something in the ballpark of 2 years $20M.

 

The rotation of Berrios-Lynn-Odorizzi-Gibson-Mejia/etc. is really solid now with Ervin due back mid May and with other guys like May and Gonsalves on the way. Tons of depth, only cost $12M, great stuff!

 

I trusted this FO to make some signings this season even when some despaired after not getting Darvish... I say great job to Favley/Levine taking advantage of the slow market and nabbing Morrison and Lynn. Clearly the Pohlads didn't object to the payroll increasing to approximately $135M.

 

In summary: Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, and Lance Lynn. That's one heck of an offseason, outside of not netting an ace. And there's still plenty of prospects in the system if they need to go out and make a big trade midseason.

[raindog]

Pretty sweet deal. Major props to the front office.

 

I really like the depth with Mejia, Gonsalvez and Romero down on the farm. If that’s what they end up doing with Mejia.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Well, I certainly didn't expect to see this happening. I'm surprised he took the Twins deal, especially when we heard that they had offered him something in the ballpark of 2 years $20M.

 

The rotation of Berrios-Lynn-Odorizzi-Gibson-Mejia/etc. is really solid now with Ervin due back mid May and with other guys like May and Gonsalves on the way. Tons of depth, only cost $12M, great stuff!

 

I trusted this FO to make some signings this season even when some despaired after not getting Darvish... I say great job to Favley/Levine taking advantage of the slow market and nabbing Morrison and Lynn. Clearly the Pohlads didn't object to the payroll increasing to approximately $135M.

 

In summary: Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, and Lance Lynn. That's one heck of an offseason, outside of not netting an ace. And there's still plenty of prospects in the system if they need to go out and make a big trade midseason.

 

By themselves none of these moves are particularly exciting but as a whole this is clearly our best offseason since Thome, Hudson, Hardy.

[jorgenswest]

Fantastic deal.

[Deduno Abides]

In summary: Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, and Lance Lynn. That's one heck of an offseason, outside of not netting an ace. And there's still plenty of prospects in the system if they need to go out and make a big trade midseason.

The deal for Pineda may also turn out to be a good one and credit should be further given for the prospects that have been added.

 

The only non-cash cost has been Palacios and a third round pick. Severino may be a good substitute for Palacios.

[laloesch]

I'm happy with this. Good rotation especially once Santana returns. It's been a long time since the Twins had a solid 1-5 staff like this.

 

Santana (when he returns), Berrios, Lynn, Odorizzi and Gibson.

 

Major Kudos to the Twins front office for getting this done.

Edited March 10, 2018 by laloesch

[Winston Smith]

which pick 75 or 95?

[DocBauer]

Only thing not to like is Mejia figures to get squeezed out and that's a shame for the long term. I know you always need more than 5 SP for a season, and he can still open the year in the rotation with Santana out. Just seems a shame not to have him developing in the 5 spot. 

 

But this is a great signing!

[laloesch]

Who do the Twins drop? Hughes or Sanchez?

[jorgenswest]

which pick 75 or 95?

75 or 95- the likelihood that player has a significant career is remote.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-9343-don-mccormack-tino-martinez-lance-lynn-and-the-75th-pick/

[jud6312]

 

Who do the Twins drop? Hughes or Sanchez?

I'm hopeful that it doesn't have to be an either/or situation and they can carpool to the airport.

[tvagle]

Here's Payroll before the soon to be announced Anibel Sanchez release

 

 

[Minfidel]

This has become a very solid staff. The top 5 starters might not be lights out individually, but you’ve got quality pitchers 1 - 5, especially when Santana rounds back into form, and intriguing options behind them. The bullpen also has a good mix now to pick and choose from; maybe now they’ll be more smoke and fewer mirrors!

[tvagle]

 

The cost is the modest salary, plus the loss of a draft pick. If he performs well, we can give a qualifying offer and more or less get the pick back; if he doesn't, then we don't.

 

Of course, after this off-season's experience, the draft pick maybe should be considered permanently gone; giving the QO may mean having him for another year.

 

New CBA...player cannot be QO'd more than once

 

If it's one and done he goes without compensation...I'm ok with that

[cmoss84]

Now go sign Cobb to a one year deal to take the 5th spot!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given how this front office has plucked guys like Odorizzi, Morrison, Reed, and now Lynn this offseason for peanuts, I’d be enraged if I was a fan of one of the other 5-7 fringe contender teams in baseball.

 

It feels really good to be on this end of things for once.

[Deduno Abides]

Only thing not to like is Mejia figures to get squeezed out and that's a shame for the long term. I know you always need more than 5 SP for a season, and he can still open the year in the rotation with Santana out. Just seems a shame not to have him developing in the 5 spot. 

 

But this is a great signing!

Mejia should go to AAA and pitch great, then become a mid-season trade chip for an ace. Next year, he’ll fall behind Gonsalves and Romero, with Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda taking three other spots, not to mention Santana, Lynn, May or Gibson.

[notoriousgod71]

Hopefully, this means we don't see 36 pitchers again this year.

 

There were no fewer than 15 guys that should never see the field of play for a MLB team and that isn't even counting guys like Hughes or Perkins.

[laloesch]

Now go sign Cobb to a one year deal to take the 5th spot!

HAHA that would be crazy!