Article: Twins Considered Favorites To Sign Lance Lynn

[jokin]

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I trust Lance Lynn moving to the AL with a really mediocre fastball array and no true off speed pitch less that I trust Gibson.

 

Ding. Ding. Ding.

[jokin]

 

The Cards gave him a qualifying offer so if they thought he was actually bad then they should have been nervous he would accept it.    1.4 WAR?    That's not so bad is it?   Wouldn't a league average pitcher be an asset right now?    I think I would feel a little better having him so this is a rare thing for me to be ok with a signing the rest of the board doesn't want.    My preference has always been Cobb though.

 

Cobb or bust.

[jokin]

 

1) Smoke and mirrors for 4-5 years?

 

2) That is one good act or there are flaws in metrics

 

Yes.

Yes.

[jokin]

 

And, to touch on nicksavikings' main talking point, his sinker percentage has risen exponentially over the last couple of years per Fangraphs:

Sinker percentage:

2012: 21%
2013: 20.5%
2014: 25.8%
2015: 27.5%
2017: 42.2%

 

Just say no to Lance Lynn. 

 

Just to further your excellent point:

 

Lance Lynn HR/FB% 2012-15- 7.7%

Lance Lynn HR/FB% 2017---- 14.2%

 

The trend is not LL's friend. No No No!

 

Don't believe the risk involved in this trend? How about these "much-maligned for gopher ball tendencies", current Twins starters over their time here? Veritable pikers next to LL 2017. 

 

Phil Hughes HR/FB%- 10.4%

Kyle Gibson HR/FB%- 12.8%

Edited March 10, 2018 by jokin

[kab21]

 

Just to further your excellent point:

 

Lance Lynn HR/FB% 2012-15- 7.7%

Lance Lynn HR/FB% 2017---- 14.2%

 

The trend is not LL's friend. No No No!

 

Two points aren't a trend. This is the definition of a something that you would expect to revert back to his previously established baseline.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Two points aren't a trend. This is the definition of a something that you would expect to revert back to his previously established baseline.

 

 

4 years of 7% followed by 1 year of14%. It’s more than 2 data points... however 2017 could be an outlier. Why I’m absolutely in favor of a 2 year deal on Lynn.

[Mr. Brooks]

Smoke and mirrors for 4-5 years? That is one good act or there are flaws in metrics

Or he'll never be the same post TJ surgery as he was pre surgery.

Not saying he can't get back to what he was, but that's an option too.

[jokin]

 

Two points aren't a trend. This is the definition of a something that you would expect to revert back to his previously established baseline.

 

 

Two points? The first stat is FOUR seasons (or points) of similarly typical production levels....

 

A stat which he (alarmingly) doubled in 2017 (playing in the same park/division). Coincurrently, Lynn's reliance on the Sinker approximately doubled in 2017 vs. the previous seasons from around 22.5% to 42%.

 

Seems to be the definition of the level of gopher ball production from a failing sinker (and lack of an alternative "go-to" pitch) to me. 

 

Can he improve over 2017? Sure. But if you're going to spend money in FA, Alex Cobb is the better bet.

Edited March 10, 2018 by jokin

[specialiststeve]

 

2/20 seems like a rather non-serious offer IMO.

 

Not that they have to sign him or anything, but I guess I don't see the point in even offering that.

When you go to buy a used car you don't offer your best offer right up front. You put in your low offer and go up. Lynn is just like a used car with salvage value (arm surgery). Runs pretty good but does have some mileage on it. Don't pay for  what the  car was years ago you pay for what  it will be for  the next few years. Am good with the offer. When the dealer (agent) sees that the market is not there - there will be a counter offer...... I would do a 2 year deal for 25 million with an two way option year for year 3 at the same amount.

[mnfireman]

At this point 2 years for $20M should be considered the top offer, especially with what Moustakas signed for, less than half of the qualifying offer. Otherwise let him sit until June.

[TheLeviathan]

Give him a 1 year deal for 15M.  

[kab21]

 

4 years of 7% followed by 1 year of14%. It’s more than 2 data points... however 2017 could be an outlier. Why I’m absolutely in favor of a 2 year deal on Lynn.

4 years of 7% is a trend. 1 year of something different is not a trend.

 

A trend would be several years of increasing numbers. For example - 7% to 9% to 11% to 14%

There are plenty of issues with Lynn and ultimately they are reasons why he didn't get a 4 year contract at 15M/yr. His HR rate last is worth nothing as a concern (did something change or was he unlucky one year) but it isn't a trend.

[ashbury]

4 years of 7% is a trend. 1 year of something different is not a trend.

From a statistical point of view I'm sure you are correct. Call it a Worrisome Development, then.

 

One year removed from TJS doesn't allow teams the luxury of waiting for a trend to develop before deciding. Their forecasting techniques need to be derived from other pitchers' experience instead, to give guidance. Let's hope they are right about Lynn - and as always, a one-year contract has a difficult time being truly bad. This signing has a chance to be really good, or it could be Jason Marquis-like.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 years of 7% is a trend. 1 year of something different is not a trend.

 

A trend would be several years of increasing numbers. For example - 7% to 9% to 11% to 14%

There are plenty of issues with Lynn and ultimately they are reasons why he didn't get a 4 year contract at 15M/yr. His HR rate last is worth nothing as a concern (did something change or was he unlucky one year) but it isn't a trend.

Indeed it could be an outlier, but we don’t know. A thousand mile journey begins with one step.

[kab21]

 

From a statistical point of view I'm sure you are correct. Call it a Worrisome Development, then.

 

One year removed from TJS doesn't allow teams the luxury of waiting for a trend to develop before deciding. Their forecasting techniques need to be derived from other pitchers' experience instead, to give guidance. Let's hope they are right about Lynn - and as always, a one-year contract has a difficult time being truly bad. This signing has a chance to be really good, or it could be Jason Marquis-like.

There is absolutely reason for concern but it isn't about a stat like HR/FB%. The concern should be that he had a 4.75 xFIP which removes HR rate from the equation. In 2017 Lynn was very lucky in BAPIP and unlucky in HR/FB%. Both of these stats commonly show a lot of single season variation and a single season of either shouldn't be used in a predictive element. 

[kab21]

 

Indeed it could be an outlier, but we don’t know. A thousand mile journey begins with one step.40EF5D98-31B0-43CB-A9A5-7A47E225B19E.jpeg

Will you embrace his outlier BAPIP stat just as much as his outlier HR/FB% stat? Most people would expect both of these to revert back to a more normal level.

And if you just want to be snarky then I will consider that you don't have anything meaningful to add to the discussion.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Will you embrace his outlier BAPIP stat just as much as his outlier HR/FB% stat? Most people would expect both of these to revert back to a more normal level.

 

And if you just want to be snarky then I will consider that you don't have anything meaningful to add to the discussion.

ive been in favor signing him, I think last year was a bounce back from TJ year and 2018 on he’ll go back to a more normal year more or less.

 

I do understand the doubters. Not everyone recovers from major surgery the same way.

 

Yes, I expect his BABIP to climb and his k rate to climb with it. He relied heavily on his sinker last year more than other years. It’s not a good pitch for him, but with health he shouldn’t have to rely on it. Less sinker means better ability to pitch up in the zone, out of the wheelhouse of the uppercut swing types

Edited March 11, 2018 by Sconnie

[kab21]

 

ive been in favor signing him, I think last year was a bounce back from TJ year and 2018 on he’ll go back to a more normal year more or less.

I do understand the doubters. Not everyone recovers from major surgery the same way.

Yes, I expect his BABIP to climb and his k rate to climb with it. He relied heavily on his sinker last year more than other years. It’s not a good pitch for him, but with health he shouldn’t have to rely on it. Less sinker means better ability to pitch up in the zone, out of the wheelhouse of the uppercut swing types

This is an actual good analysis since it doesn't flag things that are prone to one year SSS.

I absolutely have concerns about Lynn (and Odorizzi). One of them could be a lemon this year but those concerns are what made me dislike the idea of signing Lynn (or Cobb) to a 4-5 year contract. They have limited the damage financially if their FIP catches up to them.