What if Buxton goes the Dozier route, and says no FA years, but will take something like 4/30 -- is that worth it, for us?

No way.

 

Even Brycer Harper only made $41 million in his arbitration years which would only be an additional $3 million per year. That's if Buxton hits his absolute peak performance.

 

More likely comps:

AJ Pollock- $18.5

Adam Jones- $18.4

Lorenzo Cain- $21

 

You also have to take into account that Arbitration doesn't typically reward defense very highly.

 

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is arbitration is generally not friendly to profiles like Buxton... That being someone who generates a majority of his value via fielding and speed.

As an example, Kevin Pillar. He received $3.25 MM in his first arb season as a .700 OPS hitter and great fielder. Granted Buxton had 2.3 bWAR more than Pillar last year.

That's fair. Buxton is better than Pillar, but he's also behind Mookie Betts. There is some risk on his side of being under-whelmed by arbitration, which might make a guaranteed buyout a bit more appealing.

 

agree to disagree, he has way less concerns than most 24 year olds. Most 24 year old have the concern of just making it to the majors, that concern is gone. How many real injuries has he had in his 6 years here? I don't know the answer but it is less than the Sano.

 

I will elaborate.

 

Buxton is a blue chip talent.  The future of the organization hinges quite a bit on how his career unfolds.  The concerns for him are therefore WAY MORE than those of a AAAA talent who may or may not make it.  His style of play and skill set presents injury concerns.  He is sort of like Aaron Rowand than he is Gary Maddox, Devon White or Torii.  He is going to need to get this under better control and THAT is a concern.  You can choose to disagree with this stuff, but I think it might be because you don't like to read this stuff than it is you actually disagreeing (in your heart of hearts).

 

 

 

There is no arguing that.  Maybe it's me.

 

I have a paranoid fear of him getting injured.  When I first saw the kid running I just saw arms and legs flying everywhere.  Kind of reminded me of Jose Reyes and Reyes was oft injured.  He is also so much of a daredevil in the outfield.  It is great to see highlight reel catches but he hits walls HARD.  Hunter seemed to have a lot more awareness when it came to that.  Byron is like Evel Kenevel.

 

No one else is concerned about this?

 

Everybody should be concerned about this. Contracts are always a dice roll. Sometimes you just gotta do it and bake the risk in. 

 

The only thing I disagree with you about: I want him playing reckless out there. I don't want him to pull up... I want him to make those catches.

 

That part of his game is his best part right now... if you moderate that... you bring down his value. Yeah I know... it's an injury risk but getting in the batters box is an injury risk. Running at his speed is a hammy risk. 

 

I always say... play the game hard... always. It's up to the GM to make sure that there is decent fill in ready take over when needed.    

 

I'm displaying "angst"??

 

Not sure why this kind of thing happens.  It is almost as though you use that word to characterize me as being irrational in sort of an underhanded way.  Or that you're hoping to create an issue.  No, man.  I am pretty comfortable with this discussion.  I also first proposed a 5/30 deal as something I would do.  

 

Upon further review, I actually updated my opinion and wondered why Buxton would consider any kind of deal that would steal away FA years in favor of team control.  It actually makes no sense for him.  To make it make sense for him the Twins would need to make a deal that doesn't make a lot of sense for them.

 

Can we have a discussion here without characterizing people's opinions as being rooted in anger?  I posted this stuff from a diner.  I have a day off from work today.  I am very comfortable and relaxed.  I had a great night out last night.  Angst is a million miles away, Chico

 

First let me say that I missed your post about being OK with $30M/5years. Clearly that invalidates most of my points. 

 

That said "Angst" means worry, not anger. From Mirriam-Webster, "a feeling of anxiety, apprehension, or insecurity." Given many of your statements like:

 

I also was a bit alarmed with his base running when I first saw him.He has a lot of exaggerated motions, arms and legs flailing.

...

THIS is my biggest concern with Buxton.How long is he going to be the player we saw last year?With each diving catch and full on sprint risk piles up.

 

 

it sure seems that you are worried about Buxton going forward. 

 

No way.

 

Even Brycer Harper only made $41 million in his arbitration years which would only be an additional $3 million per year. That's if Buxton hits his absolute peak performance.

 

More likely comps:

AJ Pollock- $18.5

Adam Jones- $18.4

Lorenzo Cain- $21

 

You also have to take into account that Arbitration doesn't typically reward defense very highly.

The $30 mil figure was just an approximation (although be aware that Buxton will be hitting arbitration 7 years after Jones, and 4 years after Cain. Pollock also missed a whole season in there too.). Feel free to adjust it downward if you like, the main point was -- should we be willing to do a 4-year deal for Buxton, like we did for Dozier, if he's unwilling to sign away any FA years?

Why would Buxton extend at this point, when he's barely done anything yet?  Way too early...the price isn't even close to high enough...for him to give up even one year of FA.  With his talent, he'd be nuts to not at least wait until he's put things together for the better part of an entire season.  If he doesn't bet on himself in this regard, I'd be shocked.

 

I will elaborate.

 

Buxton is a blue chip talent.  The future of the organization hinges quite a bit on how his career unfolds.  The concerns for him are therefore WAY MORE than those of a AAAA talent who may or may not make it.  His style of play and skill set presents injury concerns.  He is sort of like Aaron Rowand than he is Gary Maddox, Devon White or Torii.  He is going to need to get this under better control and THAT is a concern.  You can choose to disagree with this stuff, but I think it might be because you don't like to read this stuff than it is you actually disagreeing (in your heart of hearts).

Even if he turns into Rowand for the next 6 years,  just about any extension would be considered cheap.

 

First let me say that I missed your post about being OK with $30M/5years. Clearly that invalidates most of my points. 

 

That said "Angst" means worry, not anger. From Mirriam-Webster, "a feeling of anxiety, apprehension, or insecurity." Given many of your statements like:

 

 

it sure seems that you are worried about Buxton going forward. 

I know what the word means.  I already made a concession about it being somewhat of an "irrational fear", but it really isn't irrational to think about these things.  It is actually far more rational than to pretend these risks aren't more defined and profound with regard to Buxton.  And no....I don't spend time sweating bullets over this stuff.  I love the Twins and want them to do well, but at this point of my life it isn't my life.  

 

Take the last word on "angst" if you wish.

 

Even if he turns into Rowand for the next 6 years,  just about any extension would be considered cheap.

 

Not good enough.  Not for all the accolades, hype and praise he has received.

 

If we are accepting an Aaron Rowand-like career from Buxton than we really have lowered the bar.

 

The $30 mil figure was just an approximation (although be aware that Buxton will be hitting arbitration 7 years after Jones, and 4 years after Cain. Pollock also missed a whole season in there too.). Feel free to adjust it downward if you like, the main point was -- should we be willing to do a 4-year deal for Buxton, like we did for Dozier, if he's unwilling to sign away any FA years?

It is hard to find comps for Dozier because Kinsler, Kipnis and Cano all had extensions early that bought out Arb and FA years. I think the Twins saved very little with their buyout but increased their risk in a disproportionate manner. IMO, buying out Arbitration years doesn't make much sense unless you get FA years with it. Why lock yourself into a guaranteed contract to save only a couple million dollars?

 

EDIT: to clarify the comps were to Dozier.

Edited March 5, 20188 yr by Oxtung

 

It is hard to find comps for Dozier because Kinsler, Kipnis and Cano all had extensions early that bought out Arb and FA years. I think the Twins saved very little with their buyout but increased their risk in a disproportionate manner. IMO, buying out Arbitration years doesn't make much sense unless you get FA years with it. Why lock yourself into a guaranteed contract to save only a couple million dollars?

 

EDIT: to clarify the comps were to Dozier.

And from Buxton's perspective, why am I going get locked in now when I am supposed to be a superstar?  Why would he not want to explore free agency on schedule?

 

Buying out arbitration years makes sense for guys who are earmarked to be stars.  

 

 

It's amzing how often these "______ would be crazy to do that" contracts get signed. Does Buxton giving up a year or two of free agency lower his career absolute peak earnings potential? Yes. Absolutely. And yet, pre-Arb guys keep signing these deals. Because the certainty of signing that $60M piece of paper is far outweighed by the uncertainly of no long term guarantee. His career floor earnings instantly goes from $500k to $60M. Sure that floor is unlikely, but man, that $60M guarantee is sweet. 

 

Put yourself in those shoes. 

 

You've won the lottery. You plan on taking the lump-sum option, which as we all know is less than the annuity option. Usually about half as much. But it makes sense because of the time value of money. But wait, the lottery official makes you an offer. 

 

Option a) go with the lump sum

Option b.) A roll of the dice. One roll of a 6-sided die. You have a 33% (1 and 2) chance of getting nothing, and a 67% (3,4,5,6) chance of getting the lump sum, but at the full annuity value!!!! Holy cow! The math on that is overwhelming. You HAVE to take the roll of the dice. You'd be crazy not to. But man.... that 1 and 2 is scary. You'd hate to go from a massive multiple generations, life-changing payday, to nothing. 

 

I'd take the regular lump sum.

Edited March 5, 20188 yr by amjgt

 

Not good enough.  Not for all the accolades, hype and praise he has received.

 

If we are accepting an Aaron Rowand-like career from Buxton than we really have lowered the bar.

Not talking about accepting anything other then the extension.

And from Buxton's perspective, why am I going get locked in now when I am supposed to be a superstar? Why would he not want to explore free agency on schedule?

 

Buying out arbitration years makes sense for guys who are earmarked to be stars.

you've spent this entire thread spelling out your concerns about Buxton, but can't understand why he might be tempted by guaranteed life changing money?

 

He will consider it for the same reason the Twins will, but from opposite sides. Both will accept a guarantee of less than possible-if everything goes right--and more than possible--if some goes wrong.

 

He might end up underpaid, or overpaid. But he gets paid, and the Twins risk an acceptable amount and might get a bargain.

 

Find that number and do it.

 

It is hard to find comps for Dozier because Kinsler, Kipnis and Cano all had extensions early that bought out Arb and FA years. I think the Twins saved very little with their buyout but increased their risk in a disproportionate manner. IMO, buying out Arbitration years doesn't make much sense unless you get FA years with it. Why lock yourself into a guaranteed contract to save only a couple million dollars?

That's fair, and it echoes my concerns with the Dozier deal. Maybe Buxton has more elite potential than Dozier, though? Obviously you'd want some FA years if at all possible, but if those are off the table, you'd have to consider the less-desirable alternatives.

 

It's amzing how often these "______ would be crazy to do that" contracts get signed. Does Buxton giving up a year or two of free agency lower his career absolute peak earnings potential? Yes. Absolutely. And yet, pre-Arb guys keep signing these deals. Because the certainty of signing that $60M piece of paper is far outweighed by the uncertainly of no long term guarantee. His career floor earnings instantly goes from $500k to $60M. Sure that floor is unlikely, but man, that $60M guarantee is sweet. 

 

Put yourself in those shoes. 

 

You've won the lottery. You plan on taking the lump-sum option, which as we all know is less than the annuity option. Usually about half as much. But it makes sense because of the time value of money. But wait, the lottery official makes you an offer. 

 

Option a) go with the lump sum

Option b.) A roll of the dice. One roll of a 6-sided die. You have a 33% (1 and 2) chance of getting nothing, and a 67% (3,4,5,6) chance of getting the lump sum, but at the full annuity value!!!! Holy cow! The math on that is overwhelming. You HAVE to take the roll of the dice. You'd be crazy not to. But man.... that 1 and 2 is scary. You'd hate to go from a massive multiple generations, life-changing payday, to nothing. 

 

I'd take the regular lump sum.

First of all, these guys didn't win the lottery. They worked incredibly hard to get where they are. Their future success isn't contingent on luck but their own hard work. They should bet on themselves. Yes, some players have signed extensions that buy out a few free agency years. But those aren't usually guys who would hit FA in their prime, like Buxton will. Plenty of players have turned down team friendly deals or refused to give away free agency years.

 

Buxton has already made over 7m, counting his bonus. He'll make more than 500k this year regardless. He probably has some endorsements of modest amount. Hopefully, he's smart about his money. He doesn't need to give up those free agency years. The Twins should be very aggressive and try and lock him up for a decade or more. Tell him now that he's the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future. I think offers that only try to buy out 2-3 free agency years won't get it done for a number of reasons.

 

Option a) go with the lump sum

Option b.) A roll of the dice. One roll of a 6-sided die. You have a 33% (1 and 2) chance of getting nothing, and a 67% (3,4,5,6) chance of getting the lump sum, but at the full annuity value!!!! Holy cow! The math on that is overwhelming. You HAVE to take the roll of the dice. You'd be crazy not to. But man.... that 1 and 2 is scary. You'd hate to go from a massive multiple generations, life-changing payday, to nothing. 

 

I'd take the regular lump sum.

Except, he doesn't have a 33% chance of getting nothing.  He could have injuries that knock him out for entire seasons and, later in FA, still end up with considerably more than 'nothing'.  I'm sure his agent got him a life insurance policy.

 

Look, I'd love for him to sign an extension.  Go for it, Twins.  But we're talking about a first-overall draft pick that just had the first 2 good months of his career.  I'm not saying that it NEVER makes sense for a player to extend.  But this would be the ultimate in selling low, and I'd be shocked if it happens anytime soon (extending)

First of all, these guys didn't win the lottery.

Except, he doesn't have a 33% chance of getting nothing. 

I don't believe the lottery analogy was offered as a similar situation, merely an easy-to-relate-to example where, if you had 1000 lives to lead you would decide one way (Expectation Value), but with one life you may very well decide differently (either Minimum Regret or Maximum Reward, depending on how life-changing the respective amounts are).

 

I don't believe the lottery analogy was offered as a similar situation, merely an easy-to-relate-to example where, if you had 1000 lives to lead you would decide one way (Expectation Value), but with one life you may very well decide differently (either Minimum Regret or Maximum Reward, depending on how life-changing the respective amounts are).

 

Thank you. Yes.

 

 

 

you've spent this entire thread spelling out your concerns about Buxton, but can't understand why he might be tempted by guaranteed life changing money?

Buxton doesn't have the same concerns about himself that I do.  I think it is not a bad idea to buy out his arbitration years and give him security.  I do not think buying up some of his free agent years now is something that the players union, agents, or even other players want to see.  For these reasons, I don't know how realistic it is for the Twins to do an extension.

 

Is this a controversial stance?  I don't think so

If I'm the Twins, I pass on any deal that doesn't include at least one post-arb season. 

 

I don't see this FO as being nearly as enamored by cost certainty, which is all you really accomplish by signing a deal without any post-arb seasons.

 

Pass. 

 

You've got to give a little to get a little. 

 

If I'm the Twins, I pass on any deal that doesn't include at least one post-arb season. 

 

I don't see this FO as being nearly as enamored by cost certainty, which is all you really accomplish by signing a deal without any post-arb seasons.

 

Pass. 

 

You've got to give a little to get a little. 

The old front office only played the cost certainty card with Dozier, right? Unless I'm forgetting someone...

 

And Brian Dozier was a bit of a peculiar situation, being on the wrong side of 25 with a radically different profile than when he was drafted or even played in AAA. It made some sense to lock Dozier in for his arb seasons when he openly said he wouldn't go longer than that. Buxton is an entirely different situation, one where you don't lock him up unless you get free agent seasons added... and I wouldn't budge from requiring one guaranteed free agent season with an option for a second.

 

But I'd be willing to nudge the guaranteed money way higher to get those two seasons... Like $50-60m guaranteed, not including the option year.

The arbitration hearing for Dellin Betances turned out to be acrimonious and he had a sketchy season.  Did it have an effect on his season?  Who is to say, but I think it had an effect on the relationship between the player and the organization.  I think avoiding arbitration with a guy like Buxton and giving him good faith money is a sound idea.  

 

You're saying....

"Byron, we appreciate what you have done so let's recognize that with this"

I think in the case of Buxton this is going to clear his mind.  He was so anxious at the beginning of last year so perhaps this quells that a little bit? I don't know.

 

I think I have played all my cards in this discussion.

Peace!

Byron shouldn't and won't be paid like trout or harper. Obviously any reasonable extension should be considered.

 

Hopefully Buxton is smart with his money, but few young baseball players are. It's more likely that he could use the raise.

His inability to stay healthy worries me about anything too rich or too long.  I'd wait another year and see, even if it costs me.

I'd simply note that from a cash stand point, people need to understand that Buxton's earnings in the next four seasons is essentially fixed via Arb. He's not getting a 7/100 type deal, because his earnings are pretty flat in the arb process for four seasons. That is the Twin's leverage, and their guarantee will buy out one or possibly two FA years in the process... even then, I'm not sure that deal his 9 figures. 

 

As for Buxton... yes, sign him. I'd be doing this will all the talent... at least those that they have confidence are mature enough to work hard in the offseason as well as the regular season. 

I'd simply note that from a cash stand point, people need to understand that Buxton's earnings in the next four seasons is essentially fixed via Arb. He's not getting a 7/100 type deal, because his earnings are pretty flat in the arb process for four seasons. That is the Twin's leverage, and their guarantee will buy out one or possibly two FA years in the process... even then, I'm not sure that deal his 9 figures.

 

As for Buxton... yes, sign him. I'd be doing this will all the talent... at least those that they have confidence are mature enough to work hard in the offseason as well as the regular season.

Avisail Garcia at 4.2 fWAR in 17 got a 6.7 mil settlement I his second year of Arb, 3 mil in his first year of Arb, so hypothetically could be 13 mil or more in his third year of Arb.

 

Buxton had 3.5 fWAR pre Arb

 

Mookie Betts in his second year of Arb had 5.2 fWAR and got 10.5 mil settlement. His 3rd year of Arb could be 21 mil.

 

So 25 to 40 mil for 4 years is certainly not breaking the bank, and not really something I would be concerned with hedging over.

 

But his first years of free agency, assuming health and ongoing progression man, that could be huge. Donaldson, still in his Arb years, signed 23 mil, one year deal after a 5 war season.

 

Gotta buy a year or two of FA. Maybe 6 years 65-70 mil? Would that get it done for Buck? Would the Twins do it?

Mookie Betts in his second year of Arb had 5.2 fWAR and got 10.5 mil settlement. His 3rd year of Arb could be 21 mil.

FWIW, this is only Betts' first year of arb.

 

FWIW, this is only Betts' first year of arb.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/mookie-betts-15744/

 

Betts made 950k pre arb! weird, I wonder what he has on Dombrowski

Edited March 6, 20188 yr by Sconnie