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Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Catcher

Nick Nelson
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Shane Wahl Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Shane Wahl

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For the millionth time, ST stats are totally meaningless, especially in terms of hitting. 

 

Garver has been absolutely terrible in spring training. I'm hoping the Twins can use this time wisely to determine if Garver is truly ready or not. 

 

I'm high on Garver but if he's not ready then he's not ready.

 

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Repeating something a million times doesn't make you right. I would offer it's quite the opposite.

I'm going from hazy memory but I recall some articles that crunched the numbers to show that ST stats don't have a strong correlation to regular season stats.

 

Here's an article from 538. There's a modest team correlation but the individual player correlation is negligible.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/spring-training-matters/

 

"After factoring in the projected performance, a 100-point increase in spring training OPS raises a team’s expected regular-season OPS by 15 points. While that’s not a huge increase, it’s also a much stronger relationship than what we find for individual players, where a hitter whose OPS is 100 points better than expected in the spring improves their expected regular-season OPS by only six points."

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Doomtints GCL Twins

Doomtints

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Posted (edited)

 

I'm going from hazy memory but I recall some articles that crunched the numbers to show that ST stats don't have a strong correlation to regular season stats.

 

Here's an article from 538. There's a modest team correlation but the individual player correlation is negligible.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/spring-training-matters/

 

"After factoring in the projected performance, a 100-point increase in spring training OPS raises a team’s expected regular-season OPS by 15 points. While that’s not a huge increase, it’s also a much stronger relationship than what we find for individual players, where a hitter whose OPS is 100 points better than expected in the spring improves their expected regular-season OPS by only six points."

 

The study is not relevant to this conversation. We are talking about a rookie being ready for the major leagues, not a team.

 

Yes, veterans can take a while to get going. We're not talking about that. Find me a study that shows players who have minimal to no major league experience, particularly ones hitting less than .100 as Garver is. Garver's one hit was a home run, hooray?

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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The study is not relevant to this conversation. We are talking about a rookie being ready for the major leagues, not a team.

 

Yes, veterans can take a while to get going. We're not talking about that. Find me a study that shows players who have minimal to no major league experience, particularly ones hitting less than .100 as Garver is. Garver's one hit was a home run, hooray?

The article mentions individual players.

 

“There’s a reason spring training has more to tell us about teams than individual players. It’s about signal versus noise. For an individual player, any set of 50 plate appearances (in spring training or otherwise) is extremely volatile and doesn’t say much about them individually. But bring together all the plate appearances of the nine players who make up a batting order and the volatility begins to cancel itself out. All of a sudden we have some sense of how good the nine are in aggregate.”

 

Besides, Garver has all of 21 PAs and only three strikeouts. You’re basing a bad spring on that?

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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My concern is that he'll give Garver a lot of at-bats against RHP and sit him for LHP. 

This is so thoroughly opposite how Molitor handled his backstop tandem last season that I am curious what prompts you to anticipate this now.

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Monkeypaws GCL Twins

Monkeypaws

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Another curiosity about Astudillo:

 

In 8 minor league seasons, over 560 games and 1979 at bats, he has only struck out an astounding 67 times.

 

He has only drawn 75 walks over the same period.

 

The most times he's struck out in a season is 20, over 400+ at bats.

 

Career .311 hitter in the minors. In spite of his cool pickoff, his catching skills must be marginal.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=553902#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

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jorgenswest Cedar Rapids Kernels

jorgenswest

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I don’t think it is reasonable to think that the Twins can get a lot of benefit from a catcher platoon unless they go with three catchers.

 

Let’s suppose the catcher spot is hitting near the bottom of the order against a lefty starter. Unless that pitcher is an ace, he is out of the game after two plate appearances from the catcher. The other two plate appearances are against a reliever. Most teams aren’t pinch hitting for the catcher unless they carry three so the remaining at bats are likely against a right handed pitcher.

 

I think there is more to gain by matching the catcher with our pitcher. It can also help to switch catchers in a day game following a night game even if those two games are started by a lefty. There just isn’t enough to gain by planning to start Garver against all lefties.

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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I don’t think it is reasonable to think that the Twins can get a lot of benefit from a catcher platoon unless they go with three catchers.

 

Let’s suppose the catcher spot is hitting near the bottom of the order against a lefty starter. Unless that pitcher is an ace, he is out of the game after two plate appearances from the catcher. The other two plate appearances are against a reliever. Most teams aren’t pinch hitting for the catcher unless they carry three so the remaining at bats are likely against a right handed pitcher.

 

I think there is more to gain by matching the catcher with our pitcher. It can also help to switch catchers in a day game following a night game even if those two games are started by a lefty. There just isn’t enough to gain by planning to start Garver against all lefties.

Good analysis. I'd just add a counter-weight by saying that starting Castro against a lefty increases (for his career, though not 2017) by a small margin the chance of that lefty having a good game and lasting through eight. :)

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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I agree with starting the best player and I would give more weight to the better defender at the catcher position. I suspect Castro is the better defender but I really don’t know how much better.

We won't really know much about Garver's defense for a couple of years, unless it is truly atrocious. But in general, unless you have an elite hitter back there, I agree.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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We won’t know from data we can see but the Twins better have a pretty good idea right now.

 

Agreed, but things change when you are in the majors.....so while scouting helps, it isn't fully predictive. Either way, he's the backup this year and we'll know a lot more in 6 months than we do now.

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