Article: Twins Fans Should Be Excited About Jorge Polanco

[Tom Froemming]

Jorge Polanco’s late-season surge was a huge reason why the Twins finished strong and outlasted the other contenders for the final AL Wild Card in 2017. But where did that sudden and impressive outburst come from and is there any hope of it continuing in 2018?From August on, Polanco hit .316/.377/.553 (.931 OPS), but we know he’s not that good. Few hitters are. His emergence helped the Twins finish out the season on a 35-24 run. That would be a 96-win pace over the course of a full season. A good Polanco makes this Twins lineup terrifying.

 

Polanco can really handle a bat. He ranked 13th among qualified hitters with a contact percentage of 86.5. He also made an adjustment as the year went on to swing at fewer pitches. Below is a graph that shows Polanco’s month-by-month swing percentage. Also included is the Twins swing rate as a team for reference.

Download attachment: PolancoSwing.png

As you can see, that excellent season-end stretch for Polanco also coincided with a greatly-reduced swing rate. He also kept his contact rate well above average over that span. Here’s a similar graph that shows month-by-month contact percentages.

Download attachment: PolancoContact.png

Hitters have very little control in the grand scheme of things. You can try to look for a certain pitch or a certain location, but there’s no guarantee the pitcher’s going to throw anything you’re hunting. And even when you hit one on the screws, it could be right at a fielder.

 

Polanco appears to have plus bat-handling skills and is already making adjustments to his approach. Those are two things he can control.

 

But is the breakout really real?

 

A lot of data out there suggests Polanco’s success was on the fluky side. From August on, he had one of the lowest marks in xwOBA-wOBA at -.088 (.300-.388). A big reason behind that is his average exit velocity was 84.4 mph, which ranked 190th of the 212-hitter sample I pulled up over that span.

 

That’s a long and fancy way of saying that it appears several of his hits over than hot streak would typically have been outs under normal circumstances. Plus, if Polanco maintains his lower swing rate, we can expect pitchers will adjust to him adjusting … and then he’s going to need to adjust to them adjusting to his adjustment.

 

Here’s the fun part …

 

Polanco maintained a swing rate under 41 percent while keeping his contact rate over 84 percent during the final two months of the season and still slugged over .550. Do you know how many hitters managed to do that over the course of the season?

 

Zero.

 

There were six guys who had the swing/contact rates covered: Mookie Betts, Zack Cozart, Brett Gardner, Nick Markakis, Anthony Rendon and, you guessed it, Joe Mauer. Cozart came the closest to replicating the power, slugging .548. Rendon wasn’t too far behind at .533.

 

But slugging .550 is insane. Only 12 qualified hitters managed to do that last year. So, circling back to where we started, Polanco’s not going to be that good.

 

How good will Polanco be? That’s anybody’s guess, but his skills multiplied by his ability to adjust plus the presence James Rowson and “Paulie3K” Molitor equals a lot of reasons for Twins fans to be excited about Jorge Polanco heading into 2018.

 

RELATED: Hard Work Jorge Pays Off

 

Click here to view the article

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This is why I keep coming back to TD Tom. Great work!

[slash129]

Trade Gordon for pitching!

 

Nice article!

[Mike Sixel]

He's a good player, imo, and fans probably don't appreciate him enough yet.

[Han Joelo]

He's been the Robin to Sano's Batman ever since they signed.  Here's hoping he gets a chance to play a significant part on this team for the next few years.  Can he play third base?  

[Platoon]

I will likely get flack for this, but he is why I would have, or still would trade Dozier for the best arm out there, or package Dozier. Slide Polanco to second, put a glove first SS out there, until one of the younger glove/bat SS prospects develop. While Polanco won't hit the HR's BD will, he will be a better pure hitter. Some of Doziers value as a HR guy is lost in his insistence on leading off. And the added defense at SS will mitigate the offensive loss. But then again that's just me.

[Blackjack]

Only time will tell. The same goes for Buxton and Rosario, can they keep up the good work from last year? I'm optimistic but....

[twinsnorth49]

Ok, I'm excited.

 

Thanks

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I feel that the death of Jorge's grandfather, Maximo on June 6, 2017 played a large part in Jorge's mid-season slump. It is understandable that Jorge was sad. His grandfather raised him, taught him to swim, taught him to play baseball. They were extremely close. It took time for him to work through this tremendous loss, which is understandable. Molitor said Gene Glenn hit grounders to Jorge for hours before the games. Molitor said he had not seen anyone work harder on his fielding then Jorge Polanco did during this time. I imagine it helped Jorge feel normal again, after his world had been rocked by the loss of his grandfather He fielded those grounders, hour after hour. I'm sure he appreciates Gene Glenn's time and kindness. He dedicated the rest of his season last year to his grandfather. I hope he is at peace and I wish him well. 

[tbhysgb]

I love polanco. One of my favorite twins

[yarnivek1972]

I’m not excited. He’s not an “exciting” player. He doesn’t have the blazing speed of Buxton. He won’t hit homeruns like Dozier. He’s not Ozzie Smith on defense.

 

Polanco may be the least exciting player on the team. And that’s okay.

 

Because you know what he will do?

 

Win games for the team.

[Nine of twelve]

From August on, Polanco hit .316/.377/.553 (.931 OPS), but we know he’s not that good.

Says you.

Every few years I get an inexplicable feeling about a certain player. This year it's Polanco. Of course, I could turn out to be very wrong, but I think he'll be similar to last year's Eddie Rosario, doing much better than most people think he could.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Says you.
Every few years I get an inexplicable feeling about a certain player. This year it's Polanco. Of course, I could turn out to be very wrong, but I think he'll be similar to last year's Eddie Rosario, doing much better than most people think he could.

Eddie Rosario had an outstanding season ... and still "only" had an .836 OPS. Expecting Polanco to repeat those Aug./Sept. numbers is asking him to clear an incredibly high bar.

[twinssporto]

 

Eddie Rosario had an outstanding season ... and still "only" had an .836 OPS. Expecting Polanco to repeat those Aug./Sept. numbers is asking him to clear an incredibly high bar.

Tom - great article.  Much appreciated and some great info in there too!  Thank you.

 

It may be a high bar but thats why they have bars.  It's spring training, lets dream big.  Maybe the kid turns into a real superstar.  Why not?

[HitInAPinch]

 

I will likely get flack for this, but he is why I would have, or still would trade Dozier for the best arm out there, or package Dozier. Slide Polanco to second, put a glove first SS out there, until one of the younger glove/bat SS prospects develop. While Polanco won't hit the HR's BD will, he will be a better pure hitter. Some of Doziers value as a HR guy is lost in his insistence on leading off. And the added defense at SS will mitigate the offensive loss. But then again that's just me.

I've always liked Polanco's potential, at the plate and at 2nd.

 

I like Dozier, but the insistence on hitting leadoff kinda rubbed me the wrong way. 

[Platoon]

I will give Dozier credit for one thing. He knows his strengths and exploits them. A lot of his numbers yell 3 hole. But he clings to the leadoff spot. I have always thought it's simply because he feasts on get em over FB. The only place you may get more of them than leadoff is 9th. I know analytics value highly the extra PA a good hitter gets for each notch up in the order. But I have never been convinced the loss of RBI type AB has been worth it. Whether BD's numbers would be as good in a 3-4 slot as leadoff is hard to say, but it's likely we won't find out. As for the original OP, I really think Polanco can and will just flat out hit. He would not be my SS, but he would be in my lineup somehow.

[Doctor Wu]

I also agree: very good article. Hopefully, Polanco can match his second-half numbers from 2017 for the entire coming season. Remember how down on him people were earlier last summer? And then he caught fire. I hope everything clicked and the fire continues!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I know analytics value highly the extra PA a good hitter gets for each notch up in the order. But I have never been convinced the loss of RBI type AB has been worth it.

From what I've seen of most analytic studies, they agree with you on this. I can't remember the exact order - they seem to vary slightly based on specific analysis - but your best hitter doesn't hit first in the order for the very reason that the point of the game is to score runs and it's hard to drive in runs if inferior hitters follow your best hitter.

 

The leadoff man should be one of your better hitters but only third-ish best in the lineup, IIRC.

[diehardtwinsfan]

For me, I cannot have this discussion without taking into account the loss of his grandmother, whom he was very close to. He was hitting quite well (similar pace if I remember right) to his second half in the first half prior to this event. When she passed, he went into an absolutely horrible funk. It's worth noting, as I think it's quite possible that he will exceed the .723 OPS he put up last year, which is already good for a SS.

 

I don't know if the high OPS Polanco is the real deal or not, but he hit quite well in the minors and is young enough that it is possible.

[bizaff]

 

From what I've seen of most analytic studies, they agree with you on this. I can't remember the exact order - they seem to vary slightly based on specific analysis - but your best hitter doesn't hit first in the order for the very reason that the point of the game is to score runs and it's hard to drive in runs if inferior hitters follow your best hitter.

 

The leadoff man should be one of your better hitters but only third-ish best in the lineup, IIRC.

This is the article I keep going back to - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

I tried putting together lefty and righty lineups based pretty strictly on this (can't find the post now) and it looked a little weird

[tbhysgb]

I don’t think they’re rushing to sign Dozier. I see polanco at 2nd and Gordon at short next year or vice versa

[jimbo92107]

 

I feel that the death of Jorge's grandfather, Maximo on June 6, 2017 played a large part in Jorge's mid-season slump. It is understandable that Jorge was sad. His grandfather raised him, taught him to swim, taught him to play baseball. They were extremely close. It took time for him to work through this tremendous loss, which is understandable. Molitor said Gene Glenn hit grounders to Jorge for hours before the games. Molitor said he had not seen anyone work harder on his fielding then Jorge Polanco did during this time. I imagine it helped Jorge feel normal again, after his world had been rocked by the loss of his grandfather He fielded those grounders, hour after hour. I'm sure he appreciates Gene Glenn's time and kindness. He dedicated the rest of his season last year to his grandfather. I hope he is at peace and I wish him well. 

Beautiful comment. I do remember that time, and it's a good illustration of how something like baseball can help people cope with personal tragedy. Along with his baseball talents, Jorge Polanco appears to be a very decent, sincere person. 

[jimbo92107]

When he first burst onto the scene, Jorge Polanco immediately impressed me with his cool under pressure. The Show did not overawe him at all. 

 

Since that time, Polanco has been a model student of the game, working quietly on all the little details, like refining his footwork and positioning at SS to make up for just moderate arm strength. Last season it resulted in remarkably solid performance from a guy many thought could not stick at short. 

 

This season I expect Polanco to remain steady in the field, and also add some pop at the plate. He has improved his plate discipline, which means it's more likely he'll be getting better pitches to hit. 

 

Now if Polanco and Grossman could rub a little of that plate discipline off on Rosario. Whoa baby, that would be cool. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

For me, I cannot have this discussion without taking into account the loss of his grandmother, whom he was very close to. He was hitting quite well (similar pace if I remember right) to his second half in the first half prior to this event. When she passed, he went into an absolutely horrible funk. It's worth noting, as I think it's quite possible that he will exceed the .723 OPS he put up last year, which is already good for a SS.

 

I don't know if the high OPS Polanco is the real deal or not, but he hit quite well in the minors and is young enough that it is possible.

It was Polanco's grandfather who passed away on June 6. Here's a breakdown of his numbers:

 

Up to that point: .251/.299/.358 (.657 OPS) 

There through July: .146/.205/.214 (.419 OPS)

Aug. to the end of the year: .316/.377/.553 (.931 OPS)

 

That's certainly a legit answer as to why he played so poorly in June and July, but he wasn't exactly on fire before then. Those last two months he was hitting like Seattle-era A-Rod (he hit .309/.374/.561, an OPS of .934, for the Mariners).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I've always liked Polanco's potential, at the plate and at 2nd.

 

I like Dozier, but the insistence on hitting leadoff kinda rubbed me the wrong way. 

I doubt Dozier insisted he bat lead off, but my guess is that he stated he liked batting lead off.  As we all know Bull Dozier does not write out the lineup...Paulie3K does based on a lot of variables. However I do not think Dozier should be batting lead off. But hey, what do I know. I've only managed some Little League teams and my job wasn't on the line when I did it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

This is the article I keep going back to - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

I tried putting together lefty and righty lineups based pretty strictly on this (can't find the post now) and it looked a little weird

If we used "The Book", as our model for the current Twins' lineup, what would the lineup look like? Does Paulie3K have a copy of "The Book"?

[ewen21]

I can totally see 20 home runs coming out of Jorge's bat.  For some reason, I always saw him as having a little bit of Robinson Cano in him. Don't know how or why his options got burned up so quickly.  

[Platoon]

I doubt Dozier insisted he bat lead off, but my guess is that he stated he liked batting lead off.  As we all know Bull Dozier does not write out the lineup...Paulie3K does based on a lot of variables. However I do not think Dozier should be batting lead off. But hey, what do I know. I've only managed some Little League teams and my job wasn't on the line when I did it.

A Strib writer (apologies for not remembering who) put forth a couple prospective opening day lineups. In the course of that exercise he made note of how Doziers insistence on leading off made one of his presented options, not his first choice. Add to that conjecture, Mauer was said to have resisted for several years moving out of the 3 hole, despite his post concussion struggles and it seems Molitor might be prone to accommodating a veterans desires/demands. I have also never managed anything past a low amateur level. But I just can't see myself acquiescing to a players demands for playing time, or position. I manage, you play. Frankly if you do this with all your players fairly and consistently, you will have less problems than coddling a select few.

[rdehring]

Great stuff on Polanco, who is very likeable as a person and player.

 

Also not a bad hitter for someone who was signed as a defensive specialist.  How things can change when dealing with 16 year old kids.

[ewen21]

 

A Strib writer (apologies for not remembering who) put forth a couple prospective opening day lineups. In the course of that exercise he made note of how Doziers insistence on leading off made one of his presented options, not his first choice. Add to that conjecture, Mauer was said to have resisted for several years moving out of the 3 hole, despite his post concussion struggles and it seems Molitor might be prone to accommodating a veterans desires/demands. I have also never managed anything past a low amateur level. But I just can't see myself acquiescing to a players demands for playing time, or position. I manage, you play. Frankly if you do this with all your players fairly and consistently, you will have less problems than coddling a select few.

I don't doubt that Molly has done some bootlicking for Dozier and Joe