Article: What's Next For Kennys Vargas?

[jmlease1]

 

Veteran presence like Grossman is important to keep, but I'd be fine if we package Phil Hughes and Kennys Vargas for a C-B level prospect. 

 

veteran presence is pretty meaningless, I think. Grossman's OBP and ability to play (albeit poorly) in the OF is what keeps him over Vargas.

 

Hughes has zero value in a trade right now, only way someone takes him is if we eat a big chunk of his salary and we'd probably need to dangle someone better than Vargas to get in the C-B range for prospects. We'd be lucky to get a C for Vargas straight up right now, since teams know he's likely to get cut. Frankly, if Hughes is in the package it probably reduces the value of the prospect we get even if we eat most of his salary.

[slash129]

 

I think that it is still too early to tell who will claim the last two bench spots.  The way I see it (alphabetically) Adrianza, Aybar, Granite, Grossman, and Vargas, as of now, are after 2 spots.  Each of them brings a different thing on the table.

 

If the Twins bring in someone like (just throwing names here) Neil Walker or Jose Bautista on a minor league contract, this whole equation might change.

 

Lots of Spring left still, we just got into March

 

I'd lean toward this, although I think Adrianza is probably the safest of this bunch.

 

There are still too many variables this early.  Falvey may have alluded to this group being the ones they choose from, but there is still a lot of talent available. Prices and minor league contract willingness may still change.

 

I can only see Vargas sticking if Mauer or Morrison get hurt, but there is still a month of ST left.

 

The Twins don't need late inning defensive replacements in the outfield or a LH bat, so I think Granite goes to AAA, if ST was over today.  You could argue that guys need days off, but there are a lot of off days early in the season.  If someone gets hurt, you throw Adrianza or Escobar out there to finish the game and then call Granite or Wade (requires 40-man move) up afterwards.

 

I'm still scratching my head on Aybar.  A scenario where he makes the team means multiple injuries, IMO.  I still think there are better options out there.  You mention Neil Walker. If his price point and willingness to be a role-player get to a certain point, he's obviously an upgrade. He is yet another bat who is better over his career from the left side.

 

I think Grossman's spot is going to depend a lot on how the staff think Kepler has progressed hitting LHP.  Grossman can at least draw a walk against lefties and poorly pass in the outfield.  If you're really looking for a right-handed bat (I know Grossman is switch), there are better options out there. Danny Valencia (136 career wRC+ vs. LHP) is one that keeps coming to my mind. He's played some outfield, so it would be a decision on if you think he can play at least as well as Grossman.

[Shaitan]

The only way Vargas sticks is if the Twins trade Grossman, which could happen but I doubt it will. And then all Vargas would do is pinch hit for the catcher and in select matchups. 

 

I suspect he'll be a final day cut from the roster, then he'll spend the season bouncing through the waiver wire with more time between teams than on the field, much like Arcia did.

 

He's a AAAA player.

[old nurse]

Vargas has had plenty of time to learn how to field. If he couldn't make it here when the team was going bad it would be unlikely he is going to do so elsewhere. Position flexibilty is the new oeder. Grossman will also get the same if he does not field better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just for context, last season DHs had a 101 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.

And more context, 2017 was the worst DH hitting season since Fangraphs records of that split begin in 2002. 95 wRC+. The only other season worse than 104 was 2013 at 100. Pujols was #2 in DH PA, Trumbo was #6, and Beltran #7 -- and all 3 were awful at the plate. And overall DH stats can more easily get skewed by a few bad performers, because there are only half has many DH spots (15) as every other position in MLB (30).

 

And I would guess most teams look to replace or augment DH's who post a mark around 100 or below and haven't shown much potential for notably better performance. Collectively they may not improve much on that figure, but they try, when possible. (Contracts obviously complicate their efforts at times.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

If he gets placed on waivers, I'd think both the White Sox and Royals would give him a look, which makes me wonder if it might make sense for the Twins to reach out to a team like Oakland/Seattle/Tampa/Texas to see if they can work out a deal for a player to be named later. Given his roster status, I don't think the Twins could get much in return for Vargas, but at least they have the opportunity to control where Vargas ends up playing.

Agreed. Just like how we traded Arcia to the Rays for basically nothing (maybe the waiver fee?).

 

Not that we would really fear facing him in the division , but no sense giving a free lotto ticket to (or just improving the depth of) a direct rival, if we can help it.

Edited March 1, 2018 by spycake

[PopRiveter]

Seems that many keep referring to the Ortiz comparison with the conclusion that "He's proven he'll never be Ortiz."

 

Bollocks! That misses the entire point of the comparison-

 

Ortiz was squeezed out of the Twins system entering his age 27 season because he'd shown some promise (.266/.348/.461) but hadn't established himself as better than the other options.

 

Vargas appears to be getting squeezed out of the Twins system entering his age 27 season because he'd shown some promise (.252/.311/.437) but hasn't established himself as better than the other options.

 

The age 27 season is the point in most sluggers career arcs where they start to peak. 

 

For comparison, here are some current DH's and Twin's sluggers before-age-27 triple slashes:

 

Logan Morrison: 251/.333/.426

 

Josh Willingham: .250/.357/.333

 

Michael Cuddyer: .260/.330/.428

 

Nelson Cruz: .231/.282/.385

 

Mark Trumbo: .259/.302/.478

 

Edwin Encarnacion: .260/.341/.448

 

Jose Bautista: .240/.329/.395

 

There's no certainty he'll have a productive mlb career like the players listed above, but the numbers he's posted so far are right at home with that group and he's just arriving at the age where power hitters tend to blossom.

 

There are greats who slug early on (Killebrew, Pujols, Thome, Sano), but they are definitely a minority when you look at the full population of power hitters.

 

I think this was the year to give Vargas 500+ PA's and the Twins are opting to give the opportunity to Logan Morrison instead.

 

It may prove to be a fine decision or it may prove comparable to choosing Lecroy over Ortiz.

 

The point of the comparison is that the Twins are again stuck making a choice prematurely and it feels eerily similar.

 

It seems foolish to draw a conclusion on Vargas. All he has proven is that he's worth a shot that he hasn't gotten yet and his true emergence should have been expected in 2018 all along.

 

Respectfully, 

Bitter Old David Ortiz Fan Reed

[bighat]

 

Trade Vargas to Boston, so he can hit 500 home runs for them and make the FO look like idiots...again.

 

Kidding. Sort of. 

 

This is what I'm worried about. I mean, the Twins really have no choice at this point with Vargas, they're going to have to either outright him or deal him. I feel I'm in the minority on this board, but I've always thought Kennys had a lot of potential. If he were to be traded/claimed by a team that could get him 500 ABs, I think he could hit 34 HRs. People say that Kennys "had his chance" here, but I can't really recall him ever getting a full workload and regular playing time for a significant amount of any season. I think the logjam in the Twins system is what's stopped him from breaking out, not his lack of talent. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ortiz was better in the minors than Vargas, and Ortiz was among the best hitters in MLB in the second half of 2002.

 

As for your list, Willingham was still a catcher at that point in his career, with only 57 career MLB PAs. Encarnacion was a 3B, Cuddyer was a 3B, and Bautista was a utility player. Even Cruz was nominally an outfielder.

 

And not all of those guys got notably better. Trumbo has been a worse hitter after age 26. Morrison had the big year at age 29 but is only marginally better post-26 (111 OPS+) than he was pre-27 (108 OPS+).

Edited March 1, 2018 by spycake

[jtkoupal]

He almost certainly is gone barring a long-term injury to Morrison or Mauer in the near future. Vargas is only capable of hitting for power. He really cannot do anything else. Give him 500-600 PA, and he certainly may hit 25 bombs. However, his inability to get on base (.311 career OBP) and below average defense eliminates the possibility for additional value. Rooker is waiting in the wings and could be here in just a couple of years. Vargas may hit somewhere else, but I think it's pretty clear that that somewhere isn't here.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Danny Valencia (136 career wRC+ vs. LHP) is one that keeps coming to my mind. He's played some outfield, so it would be a decision on if you think he can play at least as well as Grossman.

 

Valencia has burned many bridges with the Twins.  There is no way I see him coming back. 

 

John Swol over at Twinstrivia.com posted a great set of podcasts interviewing Wayne Hattaway, that are a must listen.   Hattaway mentions a few things about Valencia there...

[Kelly Vance]

 

I'd lean toward this, although I think Adrianza is probably the safest of this bunch.

 

There are still too many variables this early.  Falvey may have alluded to this group being the ones they choose from, but there is still a lot of talent available. Prices and minor league contract willingness may still change.

 

I can only see Vargas sticking if Mauer or Morrison get hurt, but there is still a month of ST left.

 

The Twins don't need late inning defensive replacements in the outfield or a LH bat, so I think Granite goes to AAA, if ST was over today.  You could argue that guys need days off, but there are a lot of off days early in the season.  If someone gets hurt, you throw Adrianza or Escobar out there to finish the game and then call Granite or Wade (requires 40-man move) up afterwards.

 

I'm still scratching my head on Aybar.  A scenario where he makes the team means multiple injuries, IMO.  I still think there are better options out there.  You mention Neil Walker. If his price point and willingness to be a role-player get to a certain point, he's obviously an upgrade. He is yet another bat who is better over his career from the left side.

 

I think Grossman's spot is going to depend a lot on how the staff think Kepler has progressed hitting LHP.  Grossman can at least draw a walk against lefties and poorly pass in the outfield.  If you're really looking for a right-handed bat (I know Grossman is switch), there are better options out there. Danny Valencia (136 career wRC+ vs. LHP) is one that keeps coming to my mind. He's played some outfield, so it would be a decision on if you think he can play at least as well as Grossman.

Don't want Danny Bull.  He is a clubhouse cancer with a bad attitude. 

[Rosterman]

Money-wise, Vargas' best bet would be foreign ball to establish his credentials a bit more.

 

If someone wants him, they will start to swing a deal now. But they would need that 40-man roster space open and be prepared to keep him on their own roster.

 

Grossman is another story. Do you want him or Granite? Do you want the bench bat, or the runner/defender?

 

Of course, Aybar is purely around because of the possible need of a temporary Sano replacement. That's not to say that Escobar won't start at third.

 

Like Sanchez...he's here until Santana returns, or Hughes implodes, if he doesn't implode first. And we still would have Mejia and Slegers as backup (or maybe Duffey).

 

But Vargas....again, salary wise he would look good to find a job in the Far East!

[bobs]

Several mentions of keeping him in case Mauer or Morrison get hurt during ST.  More likely, one of the other 29 teams have a bat get hurt.  Then, maybe they can get something for him.

[slash129]

 

Valencia has burned many bridges with the Twins.  There is no way I see him coming back. 

 

John Swol over at Twinstrivia.com posted a great set of podcasts interviewing Wayne Hattaway, that are a must listen.   Hattaway mentions a few things about Valencia there...

 

I'll check it out. Thanks! 

[Kelly Vance]

Twins don't need 3 first basemen/DH types, so Vargas is gone. If they put him on waivers now, he could maybe catch on somewhere.  Keeping him is just injury insurance. Grossman gets on base but can't field much. Still, he is the first bat off the bench in a clutch situation. That has value.  I think they keep him over Granite. 

[PopRiveter]

I always like looking at Baseball Reference "Similar Batters" list for context.

 

The Vargas list for "Similar Batters Through 26" starts with Paul Sorrento at the top and includes Blaine's own Dan Johnson and Kevin Maas.

 

There's value in those players, but David Ortiz is decidedly not on the list.

[Doubles]

I believe there are two ways to handle the Vargas situation:

 

1)  Hang onto him through ST for as long as possible, using him as an injury-insurance policy in the event anyone ahead of him goes down.  "Don't make a decision before you have to..."

 

  Release him / trade him to a rebuilding team that doesn't really believe it will contend for post-season play this year.   Sooner the better, if they are doing Vargas a solid so he has as much time as possible to catch on with another club.  Vargas turns 28 on August 1.  He could be the kinda guy that a rebuilding team would take a flyer on, but not someone a contending team would feel comfortable plugging into their lineup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But Vargas....again, salary wise he would look good to find a job in the Far East!

Could be. Arcia apparently got $1.7 mil there:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/oswaldo-arcia-signs-ham-fighters-japan-npb.html

 

Of course, Arcia was coming off a big AAA performance (albeit in the PCL) that Vargas has never really achieved anywhere. And Arcia was a free agent with a bit more leverage -- if Vargas goes overseas right now, his MLB org would take a cut too. And I don't know the Japanese schedule, is it perhaps too late in their offseason to get a big guarantee?

 

It might be a comparable bet, money-wise, for Vargas to try hanging on for as much of the MLB minimum salary he can get this year ($545k). If he can get 4 months service time this year, he could be arbitration eligible next winter too. And even if he doesn't perform, he might have a comparable/better opportunity to go to Asia just after the 2018 season, perhaps as a free agent?

[Halsey Hall]

According to Kenny it will take him and Kepler to get Archer.

[jkcarew]

 

Kinda feel like this was a player development issue.  Not to push the blame away from Vargas, but when you have a crappy team (2014-2016..2015 was the surprise) and aren't going to compete, you need to let a guy like him work thru 500 at bats to see what kind of player he is going to be.  He has always shown flashes of being a player, but can't even get 250 at bats in a season?!?!  

 

Hopefully he gets a chance at some consistent at bats his next stop

But whose at-bats would Vargas's additional at-bats have come from?  Those were his 23, 24, and 25 age seasons.  There would have been rioting in the streets if those at-bats would have come from Mauer's at first.  And as far as DH goes, you really don't want to stunt a young players defensive development that early by making him a full-time DH (and it's not like he was raking)...not to mention the fact that you were already violating that axiom by giving a lot of DH at-bats to Sano during those years.

 

IMO, you can call it a failure of roster management, but it wasn't a failure of neglectful development, unless the argument is that they should have simply given him more AAA at-bats (which is what they ended up doing last year).

 

I hope they trade/cut him as soon as possible for his sake.  I'd be pretty surprised if it were a trade.

[Mike Sixel]

Kinda feel like this was a player development issue. Not to push the blame away from Vargas, but when you have a crappy team (2014-2016..2015 was the surprise) and aren't going to compete, you need to let a guy like him work thru 500 at bats to see what kind of player he is going to be. He has always shown flashes of being a player, but can't even get 250 at bats in a season?!?!

 

Hopefully he gets a chance at some consistent at bats his next stop

Agreed. Bad teams should play high variable players.

 

I am guessing Japan or Rochester for Vargas.

 

For your sanity, y'all might want to take a deep breath on Rooker. I like him, but he's not a sure thing imo.

[Doomtints]

 

With Vargas, his chest and upper body is so muscular, so much girth there, that his swing does not have the same fluidity of a Kepler or even an Ortiz.

 

You can tie him up inside or even with a high fastball. That's a weakness.

 

If he has a weakness, it's low stuff ... and even that's pretty nitpicky.

[ChrisKnutson]

We could trade Vargas to the Mariners, since Ryon Healy is out for 4-6 weeks. Really don't think Seattle wants to run Dan Vogelbach as their starting 1st basemen on opening day, and since all their starting pitchers are injury prone the Twins could also move a healthy Phil Hughes as well. 

 

While a B level prospect would be fine, the Twins could try to acquire depth in lefty starter Ariel Miranda, who at 29 was somewhat of a late bloomer in 2017. And because last year he fell victim to a 2nd half slump (very homer prone) and now it seems that Seattle will send him to the bullpen despite their lack of (healthy) starters (they don't trust him) (lets buy low).

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

In a market where SP are moving as cheaply as Odorizzi and Garcia, and other names are still available, I don't think anyone is touching Hughes at 2/26 for now.

[David HK]

 

Vargas seems to be the odd man out as long as nobody gets hurt.

 

He still has a chance to be good if he can get some AB. The best bet for Kennys is probably Korea. Maybe he will get signed by the White Sox. They have room at DH. He'd be a big upgrade over Matt Davidson.  

And come back to haunt us 19 times a season...

[HitInAPinch]

 

Agreed. Bad teams should play high variable players.

I am guessing Japan or Rochester for Vargas.

For your sanity, y'all might want to take a deep breath on Rooker. I like him, but he's not a sure thing imo.

Don't need a reminder on MiLB prospects.  I was watching the Twins through the Eddie Bane and Willie Banks years....

[Mike Sixel]

I had a Willie Banks autographed baseball. I was sure it would be worth a ton of money....

[TheLeviathan]

It's amazing the guy couldn't get a stable run here as a DH. Whether fair or not, he always seemed to get yanked at the most inexplicable and unfortunate times.

 

Maybe he would have been nothing, but I always hate to see a guy that flashed some potential let go without ever getting the kind of opportunity to prove things one way or the other.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I had a Willie Banks autographed baseball. I was sure it would be worth a ton of money....

I saw new baseballs for $2 at Goodwill the other day, so assuming Willie didn't damage it much with his pen, it would still probably be worth a buck or so!

 

I just checked eBay, and there are actually listings for Willie Banks autographed items (including baseballs). eBay claims one of them even sold as a "Buy It Now" item on Feb. 5 for $22.46 plus $6.99 shipping which just seems insane to me. It has to be part of a money laundering scheme, right? Like, the Russian oligarchs can't pay us directly, so they buy our "phantom" Willie Banks autographed memorabilia?