Article: What's Next For Kennys Vargas?

[Seth Stohs]

Unless you have boycotted baseball news for the last several days, you are likely aware of the fact that the Minnesota Twins signed DH/1B Logan Morrison.

 

The Twins Geek reported that Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey told Morrison all along that Mauer was the first baseman and that Miguel Sano is his third baseman. He said that Logan Morrison would be the team’s primary DH. So, what might that mean for the likes of Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas? Let’s consider the options.First, we have to note that the Twins do not have to make this decision right now. Because they had DFAd JT Chargois late last week, the Twins 40-man roster was down to 39. So with the addition of Morrison, the Twins roster is back up to 40.

 

Second, we have to acknowledge that Kennys Vargas and Robbie Grossman are likely the two players most likely to be affected by the addition of Morrison since they are the two guys who would have been the primary DHs.

 

However, Grossman has the ability to play both outfield positions. That is important since Kennys Vargas can DH and also play a little first base. Those are the two positions that Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison can play. I mean, Morrison has played some outfield, but he’s played a total of 14 games in the outfield over the past five years.

 

The Twins could cut Robbie Grossman and pay only a portion of the $2 million he was awarded in arbitration. That is a possibility. But with Mauer and Morrison, Vargas is so redundent. And when the team gets only so many bench spots, versatility might be more important.

 

Last year, the Twins were able to get a fourth option for Vargas, but he is now out of options. In other words, he can’t be optioned to AAA in 2018 without being placed on waivers and potentially claimed by another team. In that scenario, the Twins would get nothing in return for him.

 

Unless the Twins sign more players to MLB deals, the front office does have until March 27th to decide what they will do. March 27th is the final day of spring training. It is also the day that Erick Aybar has an opt-out. As I mentioned in my Roster Projectionearlier in the week, Aybar’s spot on the Opening Day roster may have a lot to do with whether or not Miguel Sano is able to be on the Opening Day roster (DL or suspension). If Aybar is added to the roster, that is when someone would need to come off of the DL.

 

Now, the front office is wise to wait. Hey, in the next month, Mauer could get hurt. Morrison could get hurt. Having Vargas around as long as possible makes sense for depth purposes. If the Twins do go with a four-man rotation and a 12-man pitching staff, maybe they will decide to keep Vargas and Grossman on the roster.

 

In the meantime, there are other options. The front office could consider trading Vargas. Teams certainly know that he is available, so they may be receiving some calls. They can hold out in hopes that they could receive a B- prospect for him, but at the end of spring, they might be able to get a C prospect for him. Maybe. A more elaborate study can be done by someone reading this to determine which American League teams might want a DH/1B. There could be interest in Vargas from a National League team as a pinch hitter or part-time first baseman too.

 

In the past, there were often rumors of interest from teams in Korea in Vargas. While that might be more difficult to do at this time of year, it isn’t completely impossible.

 

 

What's next for Kennys Vargas? I mean, he just needs to keep playing, getting his at-bats and working hard. At this point, he's essentially getting at-bats to show 29 other teams what he can do. I would guess that his agent has already contacted the Twins about attempting to trade him, and that may happen, but it's also wise for the Twins front office to take their time with that.

 

So now it’s your turn?

 

First, based on current players in the Twins system, would there be any way to have a roster that includes Kennys Vargas? Who do you think the other options might be? If you’re Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, what would you do?

 

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[Post-Concussive Blues]

I think he gets outrighted from the roster, and does not get claimed.

[caninatl04]

From a strictly analytic point of view, I can think of one team that has too many left handed bats, especially at the 1B / DH position.

 

Could the Twins trade him to... the Twins?

(smiley face).

 

On a serious note, the poster used the work "options". One part of the FOs movements that I like is that they have set up options where the worst outsome isn't that bad.

[Kirbek]

In the immortal words of Jerry Glanville, "He just needs to learn two words:  I'm full!"

 

Sorry Kennys, you had your shots.  Thank you for the bombs when your hit tool was on.

 

[ashbury]

He has little trade value and there is no reason to discard him any sooner than we have to. Chances are that events will play out in a way that we're glad we still have him.

[ChrisKnutson]

Veteran presence like Grossman is important to keep, but I'd be fine if we package Phil Hughes and Kennys Vargas for a C-B level prospect. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I think many thought he wild be the second coming of David Ortiz, but he has never done enough at AAA or the bigs to deserve any remote comparison to Papi.

 

I think he gets waived and picked up by a team looking for a bench bat and backup first baseman.

 

How about Texas, Milwaukee, Tampa or Colorado?

[darin617]

 

I think he gets outrighted from the roster, and does not get claimed.

Then once he realizes how messed up the market is here he will be open to playing overseas to make some cash. Also, it is the best way to build some value since I can't see him getting regular AB's on any team.

[jimbo92107]

Trade Vargas to Boston, so he can hit 500 home runs for them and make the FO look like idiots...again.

 

Kidding. Sort of. 

[beckmt]

My guess for Varges, is that they hold onto him until the last week of spring training and hope he hits well, if he does not maybe they can get a C+ or B- prospect for him who is a long ways away.

If he does not hit well the last week to 10 days, he will probably be cut and have to go back to AAA or overseas for his next opportunity (maybe AAA this year and overseas starting next year).

To me he is your classic AAAA player.

[gman]

Once Morrison signed, there was not a spot for either Grossman or Vargas. To me, Vargas has shown enough to at least demonstrate an ability to have a typical Morrison type season. Morrison never came close to hitting 38 homers prior to last season  and with regular AB's Vargas could probably have at least one 30 homer season in his career.  Obviously the value of a potential Vargas 30 homer season is not that great and for the same reason Morrison won't have a real long career in Minnesota.

[Thrylos]

I think that it is still too early to tell who will claim the last two bench spots.  The way I see it (alphabetically) Adrianza, Aybar, Granite, Grossman, and Vargas, as of now, are after 2 spots.  Each of them brings a different thing on the table.

 

Given that Escobar has a job and can play everywhere in the infield and occasionally (not that great) at the outfield, any combination of the 5 might be happening.  Add to that the fact that there are a lot of unsigned free agents.  Matter of fact, if you get rid of the catchers, there are 28 unsigned free agents with major league experience.  If the Twins bring in someone like (just throwing names here) Neil Walker or Jose Bautista on a minor league contract, this whole equation might change.

 

Lots of Spring left still, we just got into March

[MangLitch]

I may be getting ahead of myself here, but I think at some point this season, both are gone. It will be interesting to see if the Twins play Rooker in the outfield a bit in the minors. I could see him continuing to rake and then pushing the FO to bring him up to platoon with Morrison and Kepler, whomever struggles the most with lefties.

 

Oh the intrigue and embarrassment of riches we now have..... could happen

[rdehring]

I expect Kennys is gone.  Only question remaining is how and when. 

 

Unfortunately, he never got consistent playing time to confirm that he is a good hitter.  David Ortiz, unlikely.  But I expect we are going to see him playing elsewhere and doing well.  My question is will he hit better than Morrison in 2018?  Will see come September, but possible.

 

Fortunately, Rooker is only a year or so away and will likely mean we won't miss Kennys.  Unfortunately, the Morrison signing probably kills getting anything of significance in return. 

Edited March 1, 2018 by rdehring

[sorney]

Kinda feel like this was a player development issue.  Not to push the blame away from Vargas, but when you have a crappy team (2014-2016..2015 was the surprise) and aren't going to compete, you need to let a guy like him work thru 500 at bats to see what kind of player he is going to be.  He has always shown flashes of being a player, but can't even get 250 at bats in a season?!?!  

 

Hopefully he gets a chance at some consistent at bats his next stop

[Old Twins Cap]

With Vargas, his chest and upper body is so muscular, so much girth there, that his swing does not have the same fluidity of a Kepler or even an Ortiz.

 

You can tie him up inside or even with a high fastball. That's a weakness.

 

When he gets hold of one though.... Wow.

 

Prolly just not versatile enough in terms of speed, OBP, positional flexibility, first to third, etc.   But always surprises me with this defense for a big guy.

 

Who knows, sometimes those big guys mature late and carry on for a long time.

[Dman]

 

I think many thought he wild be the second coming of David Ortiz, but he has never done enough at AAA or the bigs to deserve any remote comparison to Papi.

I think he gets waived and picked up by a team looking for a bench bat and backup first baseman.

How about Texas, Milwaukee, Tampa or Colorado?

 Yeah I was thinking he would be a good get for Tampa as well.  I doubt they would give up much as they have a history of killing us in trades but maybe they would be willing to deal if things break they way they appear they will.

 

I also think it is a good idea to wait as it is hard to predict who might go down in Spring training and there might be room for everyone yet.  I always liked Kennys and wish he would have gotten more at bats to truly see what he can do.  I think he can make it at this level just not sure if he will just be good or really good at some point.

[nicksaviking]

I think you hold onto him until the last cut and see what happens.

 

I'll predict the Rays end up claiming him though. They have really unsettled 1B and DH situations and seeing as they've let Morrison, Duda and Dickerson go without doing anything to fill the 1B/DH spots makes me think they're already scoping other teams' rosters to see what might shake loose later.

[tbhysgb]

He’s a good kid, maybe with enough at bats he could figure it out.

 

Just another casualty of MLB

[dbminn]

Vargas seems to be the odd man out as long as nobody gets hurt.

 

He still has a chance to be good if he can get some AB. The best bet for Kennys is probably Korea. Maybe he will get signed by the White Sox. They have room at DH. He'd be a big upgrade over Matt Davidson.  

[Elliot]

A problem with international players. The decision points arrive too soon. I would like to have seen Vargas get more time at AAA to prove he could dominate, but everything seems to get accelerated. I think Diaz is the next case. Having to make 40 man roster decisions when they are still in low A is a problem.

The part of the Ortiz comp that is true is that the Twins know he can hit, but the decision is being driven by “fit” on the 25 man roster. I think with Ortiz the competition was a chunky RH hitting c/1b named Matt who had similar stats to that point in their careers but fit the 25 man needs better. I would not be surprised to see Vargas outrighted, claimed, and resurfacing a couple years from now after maturing a bit as a hitter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

unfortunately, I don't see the Twins getting a C prospect for him. Look at Morrison, who was an all star last year, and is virtually redundant as a player got in free agency. If no one wanted to shell out more than what we paid for him, they aren't going to trade a decent prospect for the rights to own a guy whose upside is probably Morrison at best.

 

I don't dislike Vargas. He was a league average bat last year, which is hardly bad, but you don't want a league average bat at DH... He has no positional flexibility either. I think a team like the Rays picks him up on waiviers. He will get that extended shot he never got here (and that's not on Falvine). I wouldn't be surprised if he figures it out. I wouldn't be surprised if he fails. I suspect it will be somewhere in between where he posts a few .800 OPS type seasons during his expensive years.

[DocBauer]

With an OK to poor ST he'd be waived. With his new contacts and a quality ST, he's young enough and talented enough that a team hurting at DH or 1B, probably in rebuild/retool mode might offer up a decent A ball prospect and he'll be traded.

 

Never thought he'd be the next Ortiz. Never thought he was given enough of a regular opportunity to develop, struggle, make adjustments, etc, especially on a couple of those bad teams. Nevertheless, he did show inconsistencies at AAA as well as with the Twins. At this point, a change in scenery might benefit him greatly. But you absolutely hold on to him for now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A problem with international players. The decision points arrive too soon.

Vargas is almost 28 years old. The Twins had 4 option years for him. If anything, the decision point is late (from his perspective).

[sloopjont]

He's redundant hitting left handed; we could use him as a right handed hitter but he can't hit right handed.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kinda feel like this was a player development issue. Not to push the blame away from Vargas, but when you have a crappy team (2014-2016..2015 was the surprise) and aren't going to compete, you need to let a guy like him work thru 500 at bats to see what kind of player he is going to be. He has always shown flashes of being a player, but can't even get 250 at bats in a season?!?!

 

Hopefully he gets a chance at some consistent at bats his next stop

Vargas hasn't really shown these flashes. Since A-ball, he has pretty much hovered around .200 ISO and a K rate climbing to 30%. With his profile, that's pretty much a below league average player overall. Professional evaluators shouldn't have to give that guy 500 MLB PA in a season to know what they have. The Twins never gave that kind of PA to Parmelee either. (The Twins did give plenty of PA to Ortiz, but that didn't work out for other reasons.)

[USAFChief]

 

A problem with international players. The decision points arrive too soon. I would like to have seen Vargas get more time at AAA to prove he could dominate, but everything seems to get accelerated. I think Diaz is the next case. Having to make 40 man roster decisions when they are still in low A is a problem.
The part of the Ortiz comp that is true is that the Twins know he can hit, but the decision is being driven by “fit” on the 25 man roster. I think with Ortiz the competition was a chunky RH hitting c/1b named Matt who had similar stats to that point in their careers but fit the 25 man needs better. I would not be surprised to see Vargas outrighted, claimed, and resurfacing a couple years from now after maturing a bit as a hitter.

In addition to Spy's age rebuttal above, Vargas has 764 AAA PAs, and another 556 in AA.

 

More time in AAA wasn't an issue either.

 

 

[AWOLNATION_11]

I'm fully on-board with Morrison, but I do feel bad that this likely means Vargas is not around for the games in his home country of Puerto Rico.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's redundant hitting left handed; we could use him as a right handed hitter but he can't hit right handed.

I'd guess he's a roughly equal hitter from both sides of the plate -- you just see a lot of year-to-year fluctuation because the samples are so small.

 

The problem is, he's not particularly good from either side. His career splits aren't a great sample size either, but he is at 108 wRC+ vs. LHP, 96 vs. RHP. Neither figure is good enough for a DH/1B/bench bat. He'd have to sustain a 120-130 figure to really have any value.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'd guess he's a roughly equal hitter from both sides of the plate -- you just see a lot of year-to-year fluctuation because the samples are so small.

The problem is, he's not particularly good from either side. His career splits aren't a great sample size either, but he is at 108 wRC+ vs. LHP, 96 vs. RHP. Neither figure is good enough for a DH/1B/bench bat. He'd have to sustain a 120-130 figure to really have any value.

Just for context, last season DHs had a 101 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.

 

I'm a big Vargas supporter, but when you have the opportunity to add Morrison on a modest deal, you do it. Kennys is in his prime and making the minimum, so I suspect there will be a few teams interested. 

 

If he gets placed on waivers, I'd think both the White Sox and Royals would give him a look, which makes me wonder if it might make sense for the Twins to reach out to a team like Oakland/Seattle/Tampa/Texas to see if they can work out a deal for a player to be named later. Given his roster status, I don't think the Twins could get much in return for Vargas, but at least they have the opportunity to control where Vargas ends up playing.