Article: Brian Dozier: I'll Be A Free Agent

[Tom Froemming]

It feels like a good time to remind everyone that it is possible to ignore other user's posts. Just click on your profile and go to Manage Ignore Prefs.

 

... just sayin'

[Han Joelo]

If someone gave me a lottery ticket to scratch off in nine months, and said it was guaranteed to be worth between $18 and ??? Million Dollars, I'd say I was excited about that.  Even if it meant I had to move to another state for a few years.  

[TFRazor]

 

So what?  There is one thing wanting to do something, and another publicly saying that you want to do something.

 

So you're not upset with what he said, you're just upset that he said it? What did you want him to do? Lie?

[SarasotaBill]

My guess the Twins have told Dozier's agent that they are not interest in a 3 year or longer extension. Dozier understands either he gets traded at the deadline, he accepts the QO if he continues playing well, or becomes a Free Agent.

 

The Twins must set aside budget for extensions for their young players (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Berrios) starting in 2020 or sooner.

 

If he is on the roster all year, then he probably gets the QO and the market will dictate where he plays next year.

 

For valuation: it's not just the 2nd round pick but also the compensation that needs to be included. Is Morrison, Gordon, 2nd pick at $7 million better value than Dozier at $15 million for three years?

[Brandon Warne]

 

So you're not upset with what he said, you're just upset that he said it? What did you want him to do? Lie?

 

Exactly. This is burying your head in the sand -- which serves no purpose.

[Brandon]

You both may be interested to hear that I talked with Dozier a bit about the free agent market and what he expects next year. I'll include it in the Twins Daily Nightly Wrap later tonight.

Did you ask him what is important to him in his next contract? And how much would it take to get a deal done?

[ashbury]

It appears now the market is resetting so teams are not willing to commit significant dollars to players once they reach past the age of about 34 or 35

Totally as an aside, this will be an important topic the next time the Collective Bargaining Agreement is negotiated. The lengthy period prior to free agency is predicated on the idea that stars will cash in once they are able to. It could go any of several directions going forward.

[gagu]

I honestly don´t have a strong feeling about what the Twins should do about Dozier. I read and value most of the articles and comments here recently but I've yet to be swayed one way or the other. Its pretty much the same for me with the Vikings QB situation. But while the Vikes have to make a firm plan now, maybe it´s best for the Twins to let the coming months play out before committing to anything. I see the progress of both Gordon and Polanco as wild cards this spring. As someone mentioned earlier, if Lewis keeps advancing at a rapid pace, he becomes a factor in this. I love Dozier and think he has a couple of outstanding seasons left in the tank and the team can be contenders for a couple of seasons. Balance that with the potential damage of locking Dozier into a reasonably hefty 5-year contract that could negatively affect the team in the last couple of years when they could be stronger contenders. Best case scenario for me is that the young guys step up this summer and show that they can close the clear gap in production and provide solid middle infield defense in 2019. Until then, I´m on the fence. 

 

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Again:  If the baseball industry perceived that Dozier had as much value as some of the Twins' fans around here do, he would had been a Dodger right now.   Also, the people are talking about the value of Dozier's "leadership" to the Twins seem to keep forgetting that in his career year the Twins lost 103.

 

I value him as much as the industry does.

 

You don't know what the Twins were asking for in order to trade Dozier, so how can you even make such a claim?  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This is why I included the note about "set up to be fine without him."

 

Sure, you lose 30+ homers and a decent OBP from the 2B position, but you just added more thump and OBP at DH (Morrison), Sano is going to hit plenty of HR's, Rosario turned into a slugger, Kepler can improve his power, Buxton can improve his power. I love Brent Rooker in the system for power output...

 

Honestly to me, all the Twins would be losing is power from a position that doesn't need it, that is going to be made up by others who aren't hitting leadoff (i.e.: They'll have more RBI opportunity).

 

This wouldn't be that bad to me - even if Gordon's OPS doesn't break .700.

Gordon was right around .750 OPS in pitching friendly double A Nooga last year with 9 jacks.

 

year one he doesn’t make up for the loss of Dozier, but maybe year two with the improvement in fielding and some additional power in maturity. I don’t think you’d lose so much that you had to go out and spend big bucks.

 

That being said, if Levine can work out the right deal in free agency, it’d be great to see Dozier back. I think it’s more likely he gets a 5 year 60-70 mil contract that the Twins won’t beat.

[Mike Sixel]

If he is great again, I predict three years at fifteen a year.

[bird]

 

This is not about Cuddyer.  That's another story, but since you brought it up, the issue I had with Cuddyer started with his performance at game 163 at the WSux and what he said just afterwards.  Another story and long time ago. 

 

Again:  If the baseball industry perceived that Dozier had as much value as some of the Twins' fans around here do, he would had been a Dodger right now.   Also, the people are talking about the value of Dozier's "leadership" to the Twins seem to keep forgetting that in his career year the Twins lost 103.

 

I value him as much as the industry does.

 

 

 

 

Well, these comments make it pretty clear that, like with Cuddyer, you in fact DO have an issue with Dozier's "leadership". For a guy who would castigate anyone who even mentioned a pitchers W-L record, it's amusing that you are informing us that Dozier must not be much of a leader, you know, because 103 losses. 

 

Dozier's value will likely be higher than it might otherwise be because of his almost unimpeachable character. I'm liking that Falvey isn't clamoring to hand out a huge contract to him on one hand, because, I certainly don't think he's irreplaceable. In fact, he may be adequately replaced by Nick Gordon, the guy you think has a ceiling in line with Ahire Adrianza but with worse defensive chops. If he has a good start, he could fetch value from a team looking for a rental. If not, getting a 2nd round draft pick would be disappointing but not disastrous I guess.

 

Like the rest of us, you don't know what his trade value was in the past, is now and will be in the future. Let's stop acting like last year's Dodgers talks, about which you have no proprietary information, did anything to set the market for him. His value won't be low for the reasons you've suggested, but rather, because his contract status eliminates any seller's leverage.

Edited March 1, 2018 by birdwatcher

[twinsnorth49]

I don't understand why this a big deal. Didn't everyone already know Dozier was a FA next season?

 

Would be nice to have Dozier back, no need to overpay though.

[kab21]

This really shouldn't come as a surprise. If it is this close to free agency then players rarely give a hometown discount for extensions.

And perhaps I am mistaken but wasn't there a short article (or perhaps a comment) from Dozier last year that he was surprised that the Twins hadn't approached him about an extension last offseason? He didn't sound upset but just thought that he would have been approached about it. That was the opportunity to extend him.

And I already said it but a player's trade value isn't always reflective of his actual value. Contending teams simply didn't need 2B last offseason. I made the argument all offseason that Dozier was going to be hard to trade because of that fact. And he was hard to trade because of that.

[Blackjack]

With the way the whole free agency process worked out this, teams NOT handing out extravagant contracts to older free agents, I'd be a little nervous if I was Dozier.  Nervous is probably not the right word, he'll make enough money to feed his family, but he's not going to get the big deal that he could have predicted two years ago after hitting a bunch of home runs.

 

Maybe he will give the Twins a home team discount.... If not, bye bye.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

With the way the whole free agency process worked out this, teams NOT handing out extravagant contracts to older free agents, I'd be a little nervous if I was Dozier.  Nervous is probably not the right word, he'll make enough money to feed his family, but he's not going to get the big deal that he could have predicted two years ago after hitting a bunch of home runs.

 

Maybe he will give the Twins a home team discount.... If not, bye bye.

These two statements don't really jibe with one another.

 

If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply.

 

But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian).

 

And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season.

 

He's not going to be cheap.

[markos]

 

These two statements don't really jibe with one another.

 

If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply.

 

But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian).

 

And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season.

 

He's not going to be cheap.

Lorenzo Cain is the same age this offseason as Dozier will be next year. By WAR, they are pretty equivalent. Cain just got 5/$80M.

Justin Turner was the same age when he was a free agent last year. He got 4/$64M.

If Dozier has another good season, he is going to be one of the top 4 position players available next year. I think the Turner deal (which if I recall correctly, was kind of a below-market deal to stay in LA), is Dozier's floor. 

 

Also, I think one or more of the Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres will exceed expectations in 2018 and decide that their window is opening. Phillies aside, I don't think any of them will be able to afford. But Dozier might be an attractive target for that tier of team, much like how Cain worked for the Brewers this year.

[Platoon]

These two statements don't really jibe with one another.

 

If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply.

 

But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian).

 

And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season.

 

He's not going to be cheap.

I understand the comment about Doziers market value being depressed, but remember his market value is subjective. Regardless of the top dollar amount of an offer for Doziers services, a home town discount would still be a discount from his top dollar offer. The amounts are irrelevant to the perceived value. I think the new philosophy on paying over 30 yr. old players for their history, the plethora of quality second baseman, and the number of FA available next year will negatively impact Doziers top offers. But that does not make him a steal since the market value is set by next years offers, not by what he would have brought in say, 2015, in the same set of circumstances.

[ashbury]

And perhaps I am mistaken but wasn't there a short article (or perhaps a comment) from Dozier last year that he was surprised that the Twins hadn't approached him about an extension last offseason?

Here. It was a little more than a month ago, so maybe there was something similar further back.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And perhaps I am mistaken but wasn't there a short article (or perhaps a comment) from Dozier last year that he was surprised that the Twins hadn't approached him about an extension last offseason? He didn't sound upset but just thought that he would have been approached about it. That was the opportunity to extend him.

Seems kind of disingenuous, after Dozier and his agent publicly prioritized free agency when he signed his first extension with us. If Dozier hasn't given any indications he would sign another extension below his FA market value, why would he expect the Twins to approach him about doing so?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Seems kind of disingenuous, after Dozier and his agent publicly prioritized free agency when he signed his first extension with us. If Dozier hasn't given any indications he would sign another extension below his FA market value, why would he expect the Twins to approach him about doing so?

My first thought as well. Dozier refused to budge from buying out a year of free agency when he signed his last contract (which was the right decision given his age and shows faith in himself, a good thing for a player to have).

 

So why should the Twins bend over backward to accommodate an extension when it's so obvious he prioritizes free agency? I don't blame either side for their actions.

[kab21]

 

Seems kind of disingenuous, after Dozier and his agent publicly prioritized free agency when he signed his first extension with us. If Dozier hasn't given any indications he would sign another extension below his FA market value, why would he expect the Twins to approach him about doing so?

There really isn't much comparison to not agreeing to tack on a FA year (a huge benefit to a team) to an extension signed during arbitration and approaching a top player about a mega extension before he hits FA. Especially for a player that is already hitting FA for the first time in his 30's. He knows that this contract is his one big payday.

 

They didn't even give him a chance to say no. The Twins FO have basically said that he won't be part of the plans after 2018.

 

 

[Blackjack]

 

These two statements don't really jibe with one another.

 

If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply.

 

But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian).

 

And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season.

 

He's not going to be cheap.

As I said, he'll probably be able to feed his family on whatever he signs for. 

[Road trip]

Love having Dozier for 2018.

Pretty certain I'd like having him for 2019, and probably for 2020.

 

Take a look at the top Baseball Ref comps for Dozier though, and what they have done after their early 30's.  It isn't pretty.

 

Dan Uggla 
Kelly Johnson 
Damion Easley 
Rickie Weeks 
Neil Walker 
Bret Boone 
Jose Valentin 

 

With the exception of Jeff Kent, power hitting second basemen don't age well at all.  Father Time is tough to beat.  If Dozier is willing to take a 3 year deal (and he probably won't be) then sure, sign him.  I think after 2021 you can't expect him to be better than replacement level on his offense, and his defense is unlikely to be adequate.

[Seth Stohs]

Today, Jim Souhan wrote the Dozier/Free Agent article with the not eating fried foods angle. 

 

http://www.startribune.com/brian-dozier-sounds-willing-to-walk-away-from-twins-after-season/475776713/

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Love having Dozier for 2018.

Pretty certain I'd like having him for 2019, and probably for 2020.

 

Take a look at the top Baseball Ref comps for Dozier though, and what they have done after their early 30's.  It isn't pretty.

 

Dan Uggla 
Kelly Johnson 
Damion Easley 
Rickie Weeks 
Neil Walker 
Bret Boone 
Jose Valentin 

 

With the exception of Jeff Kent, power hitting second basemen don't age well at all.  Father Time is tough to beat.  If Dozier is willing to take a 3 year deal (and he probably won't be) then sure, sign him.  I think after 2021 you can't expect him to be better than replacement level on his offense, and his defense is unlikely to be adequate.

You may be reading a bit more into those comps than necessary. Outside of Boone and Valentin - both of whom had good seasons well into their 30s - Dozier is already ahead of everyone on that list in career WAR, despite Brian not having his breakout season until age 26.

 

I mean, it doesn't even make sense to have guys like Weeks on that comp list, as Weeks entered the majors in his early 20s and was basically cooked at age 28.

[NCtwinsfan]

I realize Dozier and Altuve are not the same player, Altuve is also younger and better. But Altuve getting 5yr/$151mil seems like it could affect what Dozier might get in free agency. Not that he will get close to that, but maybe more than the numbers I have seen thrown around so far. Anyone else have an idea if Altuve's contract will have any impact on how much Dozier gets?

[Deduno Abides]

Lorenzo Cain is the same age this offseason as Dozier will be next year. By WAR, they are pretty equivalent. Cain just got 5/$80M.

Justin Turner was the same age when he was a free agent last year. He got 4/$64M.

If Dozier has another good season, he is going to be one of the top 4 position players available next year. I think the Turner deal (which if I recall correctly, was kind of a below-market deal to stay in LA), is Dozier's floor. 

 

Also, I think one or more of the Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres will exceed expectations in 2018 and decide that their window is opening. Phillies aside, I don't think any of them will be able to afford. But Dozier might be an attractive target for that tier of team, much like how Cain worked for the Brewers this year.

Turner is a good comp. Note that his deal with the Dodgers was signed in December.

 

Braves, Phillies and Padres have internal candidates, like Albies, Hernandez, Kingery and Urias. The Reds are hard to figure. The Brewers could be looking, if they don’t think Hiura is ready and they have budget for a 2B. There really isn’t a clear competitor for the Twins at this time.

 

The Twins will at least get a comp pick.

[Vanimal46]

 

No surprise. Here's to hoping he has a killer contract year.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Next offseason the Angels will let Kinsler walk and have an opening at 2B. They will be able to compete for him in free agency and the Angels have a history of getting Twins in FA. Carew, Blylevin, Revere, Hunter, mudcat Grant, and more....

And let's not forget Lyman Bostock, whose promising career was tragically cut short.