Article: Brian Dozier: I'll Be A Free Agent

[John Bonnes]

 

Well, then the Twins should give him a qualifying offer.  The draft pick they will get will have more value than Dozier for them, especially, since apparently he does not seem to want to be a Twin any longer.  Not very smart for him to start talking about this, especially in this environment regarding FA compensation and offers...

 

FWIW Thrylos, he talked about it because I asked him about it in a one-on-one interview. He's not parading around talking about it. I give him props for being willing to talk about a very sensitive topic. 

[John Bonnes]

 

Your Dozier hatred continues to amuse me.

 

Jay Bruce: 31 years old, 5806 PA, 20.3 fWAR, 18.9 rWAR

 

past 3 year WAR total: 4.2 rWAR

 

Brian Dozier: 31 years old, 3770 PA, 20.8 fWAR, 22.9 rWAR

 

past 3 year WAR total: 13.4 rWAR

 

I mean... lol.

 

You both may be interested to hear that I talked with Dozier a bit about the free agent market and what he expects next year. I'll include it in the Twins Daily Nightly Wrap later tonight. 

[Old Twins Cap]

 

I think it's going to be difficult to replace what Dozier does for the team. Assuming that Gordon takes over at 2B, we'll miss out on 20+ HRs that would have came off of Dozier's bat instead of Gordon.

 

Yeah, I'm going to miss those lead-off HRs for sure.  How many solo shots?

 

But, a solid player on both sides of the ball and a surprise out of nowhere who has bolstered the Twins push for respectability.

 

And, all things being equal, MLB is about bringing up new guys, creating value through prospects.

 

So, good on 'ye Brian and get enough so your grandchildren don't have to work either.

[Vanimal46]

 

Of course. Dozier is a great player right now. I am not convinced that he will be a great player from age 32-36+ though. And it is likely that he isn't even good by the end of his next contract.

The Twins have MI depth at all levels in the minors and they even have two very good backup infielders (EE is also an upcoming FA) to replace him in the starting lineup. His overall production will have to be replaced from elsewhere though.

 

See I'm pretty confident betting on him continuing what he's been doing into his mid-30's. Dozier is probably the most marketable Twin right now, and the one casual fans know the most... I don't know, it's hard to imagine a team without Dozier and Mauer within the next year. 

They'll have to start another "Get to Know Em'" campaign!   

[Shaitan]

 

FWIW Thrylos, he talked about it because I asked him about it in a one-on-one interview. He's not parading around talking about it. I give him props for being willing to talk about a very sensitive topic. 

Exactly. And he's going to be asked about it in every city they play in this year. He might as well say it now and get it over with.

 

Plus, his answer was basically the company line every player gives. Even if he's negotiating a new contract as we speak, this is what I'd expect to hear.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I imagine Dozier will resign with the Twins. He might get a hefty raise to boot.

 

I'd offer him 3/$60m

[twinssporto]

 

Well, then the Twins should give him a qualifying offer.  The draft pick they will get will have more value than Dozier for them, especially, since apparently he does not seem to want to be a Twin any longer.  Not very smart for him to start talking about this, especially in this environment regarding FA compensation and offers...

I dont think Dozier is saying he doesn't want to be a Twin any longer.  In fact, I interpret the comments to mean he would like to stay.  He's a great ball player and leader in the club house.  Hope he stays but I get it.  If he can pull an extra $5mm + or more a year for his services elsewhere good for him.  

 

More importantly, what really gets me excited about Dozier is that he will be a free agent next year!  If anyone is going to work extra hard and pull out all the stops, this will be the year for Dozier to do it.  I'm betting this could be his best year as a Twin.  

 

As you mentioned in a previous post he will be 31.  Regression does eventually take hold.  As my tag line says, "on a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone drops to zero".  

 

Go Dozier!  

Edited February 28, 2018 by twinssporto

[Vanimal46]

I'd offer him 3/$60m

 

I'm guessing other teams will offer more years, albeit for a smaller AAV.

 

I'd be quite comfortable going 4 years, wince but still do it for 5 years, and walk at 6.

[ChrisKnutson]

Next offseason supposed to be filled with superstars, but if our core can take even the slightest of steps forward compared to 2017 we'd have no need for Harper, Machado, Madbum, etc.

 

Instead, I think the Falvine should bring Dozier back on a long term deal (5 years), work out a discount for Mauer, all while still having room to sign high quality players such as Drew Pomeranz and Nelson Cruz.

 

Imagine Dozier, LoMo, Sano (still holding out hope for Archer), and Nelson Cruz in the heart of our lineup

 

and... 

 

having Pomeranz, a 30 year old to be with ace-like stuff who'll also be entering his prime years in 2019

 

 

[slash129]

 

I'm guessing other teams will offer more years, albeit for a smaller AAV.

I'd be quite comfortable going 4 years, wince but still do it for 5 years, and walk at 6.

 

Yep, and if he goes somewhere else, that will be my second favorite team for awhile.  Well, maybe not the Yankees or White Sox.   

[Brandon]

Next offseason the Angels will let Kinsler walk and have an opening at 2B. They will be able to compete for him in free agency and the Angels have a history of getting Twins in FA. Carew, Blylevin, Revere, Hunter, mudcat Grant, and more....

[Brandon]

But i hope he stays as he could finish his next contract 2nd all time in Twins HRs.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No surprise at all. Good luck to him, I hope he goes the jackpot!

the only surprise is that he’s already laid down his “go ahead and offer the QO, I won’t accept it” card. A rejected QO (with pick attached) would have to drepress his value on the open market

[DocBauer]

FWIW, I'm a big fan of Dozier. And I would offer him a 4 year deal right now somewhere in the $14-15M per year range. I would go as high as $16-17 average value, especially if I could front load the deal to maintain maximum flexibility. It's a win win for both parties. Said it before and will say it again, you could do this, even re-sign Mauer for around $10-12 for a season or two, and you'd still cut a couple million from their combined cost in 2018. Dozier's speed may diminish, but there is nothing pertinent to suggest a sudden loss of hit tool, OB or power over the next couple of seasons.

 

Now, he might reject that, want to be a FA and hope for a rebound in the market. It's his right and he's earned it. He's been nothing but class as a Twin and answered the whole FA issue in an honest and classy manner. And he never said a word about NOT staying with the Twins.

 

Personally, I think if he did reject my proposed offer, he may regret it. I just don't think he's going to get 5 years and $20M in this new age of analytics.

[Monkeypaws]

Most home runs by a second baseman in a single season, American League: 40, Brian Dozier.

 

He's been a great Twin for sure.

[SF Twins Fan]

I think the Twins will miss his right handed bat the most especially since it looks like they will be replacing him with Gordon. It would definitely be difficult to replace everything he does for the Twins team. I'd like to see them bring him back for 3 or 4 more seasons but if they don't I just hope the FO actually spends the money on the starting rotation.

[Rosterman]

The joy then is that Dozier is one of many players who should have a dynamite season: Santana, Gibson, Rodney, Mauer, Escobar, Duke...if they ant to cash in on the free agent market.

 

And, they could also be trade bait if the Twins suffer and die come July.

 

Considering the free agent marketplace for many guys this year, I don't see Dozier being a longterm second baseman for any team...where would you slot him if not at 2nd...thid base or first base, or a DH. But then we saw what kind of money Logan Morrison got this year.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I dont think Dozier is saying he doesn't want to be a Twin any longer.

 

It's not. He literally answered the question he was asked. That's it.

[jimbo92107]

This is exactly what should happen to a player that has worked his butt off, improved every aspect of his game, played unselfish baseball, avoided personal scandal, and stayed loyal to the organization that drafted him.

 

Congratulations to Brian Dozier for building himself up for the next phase of his career. Clearly he deserves to finally get a huge paycheck and possibly play for a real contender, instead of the perennial bargain basement Minnesota Twins. I hope he lands on the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, or some other contending team, and I hope he gets paid in wheelbarrows full of Benjamins. 

[beckmt]

Count me in on the bandwagon that would like to have him stay here.  If he wants a big contract, just do not see that working out here.  Clubs are getting smarter and this is not the steroid era where older players held their value to the mid 30's.  If he has a decent year extend the QO, but I do not see many clubs paying him more than $15 million a year if he wants more than 3 years.  Players just do not age well any more and if you have to move him off of second base he loses a fair part of his value.

[beckmt]

All this being said, I am betting the Dodgers are regretting not raising their offer and getting Brian last offseason,  second base was one of their weakest positions last year(if not the weakest).

[HitInAPinch]

No doubt the Twins will miss Dozier's bat.  However, with the infield prospects the Twins have, the Twins should try to shop Dozier around.

 

Personally, I've always liked Jorge Polanco more at 2nd than SS.  I've read mention about Nick Gordon being ready/almost for the MLB.  Gordon has played at SS in the MiLB most of the time, however, I just read the Strib article that says Gordon has been play 2nd more.  Sounds like a "keep your options open" kinda deal.

 

Polanco at 2 and Gordon at SS.  I like it. 

[Platoon]

There is no doubt that under today's contract structure in MLB Dozier deserves a shot at the pot of gold at the end of that rainbow. But I fear he is in the wrong place at the right time. Lots of competion for cash next winter, and the shifting philosophy on long term deals for 30+ players. Plus this. When he was shopped last year for a pitcher, his value, even with a team friendly contract wasn't exactly overwhelming. I doubt it will have increased after two years pass by. He will do ok, but it's not going to be the haul it would have been a couple years ago. Sadly as trade bait at the deadline this might also be applicable.

[twinsguy14]

From my old school non anyalytical (I can't even spell the word) perspective, I have viewed Dosier's greatest value is as a power hitting second baseman. A non traditional power source. It allows us to fully use Mauer's abilities at first base and a OBP machine with lack of power in a position that is traditionally a power hitter domain. Making it an excellent right side infield combo. Similar to what the Cubs had with Sandburg and Grace.

[MangLitch]

What a fun thread!

 

1. Dozier has been incredibly valuable to this organization and he does deserve more than Jay Bruce lol.

 

2. We here in MN land tend to be a bit defensive about people wanting to be here, but I qualify this statement as not a part of that complex.

 

I don’t think I want Dozier here for big money, or even market money. Unless, somehow, our pitching situation figures itself out this year and we get 3 guys to take huge steps, I’d rather spend that money on an elite guy at SP and leave some room up the middle for one of our 18 INF prospects. I get it, it’s a lot of production to make up but I like the odds of our budding lineup to make up for that versus our very young pitching prospects to become an elite frontline starter by next year (maybe berrios but still 4 other pitching spots to fill)

 

So in true MN homer fashion, “So you don’t wanna be here next year? You don’t Love us Brian? Well good riddance to you, you sucked anyways”

[rdehring]

It will be exciting watching Dozier play in Minnesota thru at least July.  If he is here all year...great.  If he is here for the next three or four years as well, fantastic.  Just don't want to break the bank to keep him here.  Would rather do that for a Buxton long-term extension.

 

Last winter the FO stated that they wouldn't be doing any extensions until spring training.  Well, that time is here.  Would be great to see them do something about Buxton, Rosario and yes, Dozier too.

 

 

[bighat]

 

Could be a nice trade chip rental at the deadline if the Twins fall out of the race in July.

 

Geez man, that's a very negative take if that's the first thing that comes to mind. The Twins aren't rebuilding, they're going for it this year.

 

I am all for Dozier hitting the market - he's certainly earned it. The Twins have been shopping him for a while now and I can't blame him one bit. But let's all have some hope that come July, Dozier's starting his hot streak and the Twins are 2 games up on the Indians in the catbird seat.

[Han Joelo]

Money aside, reading his comments made me think he is very aware that this could likely be his last spring training (and season, etc) as a Twin.  This is his senior year in high school.  Mixture of feelings for sure.  Carpe Diem, Brian.

 

These have been good years, I hope nobody burns any bridges (us fans too) as he might end up back here.  If he leaves.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dozier is one of my favourite players, but I don't see a need for him much beyond 2019 season at best. We have some nice MI depth, and the closest is Gordon who will likely start in AAA this season. Gordon could be ready to move into MLB this time next year, but he might also need a year... who knows.

 

Dozier makes a ton of sense on a 1 year deal... and he rightfully isn't likely interested in that, which means that I suspect he walks... We will get a compensation pick, but that's not going to make up for his production.

[Thrylos]

 

FWIW Thrylos, he talked about it because I asked him about it in a one-on-one interview. He's not parading around talking about it. I give him props for being willing to talk about a very sensitive topic. 

 

But the important part is that he did say that he want to become a free agent and how much he is looking forward to it.  And by talking to someone with press credentials in a non-confidential manner, it had to be almost certain that it will be "paraded around" some place or another...

 

He could have said on the subject what Mauer did in a similar 1-1 interview, and call it a day.  Here is what Mauer said:

 

“I really just want to enjoy this season and go out and play some baseball. I’m going to enjoy this year.”

 

I suspect that you did not put those words in Dozier's mouth, and I suspect that you did not hold a gun to his head...

 

 

Edited February 28, 2018 by Thrylos