Article: 2018 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (1.0)

[Vanimal46]

I cringe seeing Hughes at #5 on the list... I don't want him on the list at all.  

[jmlease1]

I deeply dislike the idea that Aybar might be handed a job, because unless he suddenly starts killing it in spring training, I don't see him being anything better than replacement level, and there's decent odds he'll just flat-out suck. He can't hit enough to play anything other than SS, and his defense is slipping. Is this seriously the best insurance plan we could come up with if Sano gets suspended?

 

I keep reading that the Twins won't need a 5th starter the first month of the season, so that makes the rotation battle very interesting. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Kyle "the Tease" Gibson (I'm going to keep flogging that nickname until Gibby puts together a consistent season again; after 2 straight seasons predicting him as ready to break out, I refuse to get fooled again) are locked. Meija vs Hughes for the 4th spot is interesting; I think Meija could win that and push Hughes into the bullpen for the start of the season as the long man, but if Hughes wins it, Meika goes to the minors to start.

 

I think it's an 8-man (yuck) bullpen to start the season. Seth has the right suspects up there; my bet on #8 is Hughes if he's not starting or Busenitz if Hughes makes the rotation.

[Twinsrule1991]

 

Man imagine putting up a 1.99 ERA in your rookie season (Busenitz) and not being favored to make the team out of spring training. 

 

And then imagine posting a 4.50 ERA across 21 starts in the AL in your rookie season (Mejia) and not being considered a lock for the rotation next year. 

 

This game is too hard man. 

 

I'm a big Busenitz bobo.

This makes me sad.

[Siehbiscuit]

When you are competing the goal should be to have the 25 players who will make a better team up North, not hoarding mediocre players...

 

And the Twins are competing.

 

When you are competing the goal is to put the best team together to compete. The offensive holes in the Twins lineup are at 1B (LH - Mauer), DH (LH - Morrison) and the corner outfielders (LH - Rosario and Kepler). Sano can be a right hand bat vs tough lefties and Grossman can fill a gap with his bat in the DH and OF hole. Grossman is NOT a great defender, but when he plays for Kepler or Rosario vs a tough lefty, they can defensive sub in a close game. They are still eligible to play even when they don’t start.

 

We all like Granite, but he is redundant for this team. Grossman has one very good skill and it is the one that is most important in run production: OBP. Grossman can get on base. That is a needed skill vs lefties that makes this team better.

[Shane Wahl]

Granite had 107 plate appearances for the Twins last year and was terrible. Dude needs a few hundred more AAA PAs for me to even remotely consider him on this team. 

 

Busenitz is preferable over Pressly, for sure, and maybe Duffey.

[jkcarew]

I would guess that north of 80% of the starts for the 4th outfielder (assuming Kepler/Rosario are healthy) will come against left-handed starters.  That would argue for Grossman over Granite.  Although interestingly, Granite has a bit of a history of reverse splits.  Still, I think the Twins will opt for Grossman's bat in this scenario.

 

If there are injuries, then I think you look for Granite to be the replacement 'every-day' 3rd outfielder.  Granite plays every day at Rochester, then if/when there is an OF injury with the big club, he gets called up.  I think that will be the start-of-the-year plan.

 

Kepler needs to make a significant step forward against left-handed pitching, or he will lose value for the Twins, including trade value.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I cringe seeing Hughes at #5 on the list... I don't want him on the list at all.  

I'm cringing at almost the entire rotation to start the year. The Twins are banking on A LOT of things to work out in their favor. Scary....

[jimbo92107]

 

I think Adrianza has to go... I would rather keep Granite and Aybar to have on the bench. Speed and experience... I also think Grossman is a goner at this  ☞ with LOMO able to play what he can! 

Whaaat? Adrianza played very well last season. He came from injured long shot to excellent super utility man, and his bat played far better than expected. 

 

Ten years younger Eric Aybar kicks everybody's butt, sure. But now? Aybar's career is winding down, where Adrianza is still in his physical prime, and possibly getting better. 

[jimbo92107]

The biggest questions are on the mound, as usual. If the Twins don't sign a Lynn or Cobb, then I go back to my preference to use 2018 to try out every plausible prospect in AAA and AA. Certainly it's time for Gonsalves, probably Romero. No reason not to give Stewart a cuppa, and Felix needs another taste. Meanwhile, Tyler Jay was supposed to be on the verge the day he was drafted, and John Curtiss didn't embarrass himself last September, did he?

 

Not sure why the Twins signed Aybar, whose career is about done. Who really thinks he's going to produce like he did five years ago? Better to keep Granite or Grossman, and let Adrianza continue as the Super U, unless somebody like Nick Gordon catches fire this spring. 

 

Oh, I can already smell the green grass of spring! Sorry, I'm in San Diego. Minnesota's grass is under a couple feet of snow right now, so my brother tells me...

[Minny505]

I can't find a way to sort by spin rate leaders (the statcast and savant websites are pretty terrible), but on a statcast podcast last year petriello mentioned Busenitz having the second highest spinning fastball of any reliever who threw 100 fastballs. The outliers at the top and bottom of the spin rate list (according to petriello) generally have fantastic outcomes. The names he was surrounded by are basically the who's who of best relief pitchers in the game and petriello adamantly suggested he will be the future closer for the Twins. I hope he makes this squad as he is one of the five best RH relief pitchers the organization has right now.

[Thrylos]

 

When you are competing the goal is to put the best team together to compete. The offensive holes in the Twins lineup are at 1B (LH - Mauer), DH (LH - Morrison) and the corner outfielders (LH - Rosario and Kepler). Sano can be a right hand bat vs tough lefties and Grossman can fill a gap with his bat in the DH and OF hole. Grossman is NOT a great defender, but when he plays for Kepler or Rosario vs a tough lefty, they can defensive sub in a close game. They are still eligible to play even when they don’t start. We all like Granite, but he is redundant for this team. Grossman has one very good skill and it is the one that is most important in run production: OBP. Grossman can get on base. That is a needed skill vs lefties that makes this team better.

 

 

I am not arguing Granite vs. Grossman.  I am arguing the point of view that the Twins should keep Grossman regardless, since he is out of options.  

 

If he is the best player for the Twins' bench, he should come North.  If he is not, he should not.  Options or no options...

[Homer Hanky]

Great stuff! I think Aybar gets the nod because we need post season experience... and Aybar can at least give us that... and maybe a better club house guy! 

 

Either way... I like both... 

 

But Grossman has to go! 

I don't know what happened to Aybar.  At one point in his career he was average both offensively and defensively.  That last year he achieved that was 2014.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4082&position=SS

 

Adrianza put up 1 WAR last year playing in 70 games.  With above average defense and slighly below average offense.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8418&position=2B/SS

 

I would be surprised if Aybar beat out Adrianza.  Aybar would need to play much better than he did last year for that to happen.

 

[cmoss84]

The real wildcard that will effect the lineup the most is Buxton. 

 

Does he start off cold in the 1st half?

Does he hit well at the bottom of the lineup but struggle to hit at the top?

Who is hitting ahead of him-does he have slow runners on the pads in front of him?

 

There are quite a few posts throughout these threads with everyone's ideal lineup-and a lot of them make a lot of sense. I think ideally, if Buxton can handle it, he hits leadoff and someone with at least decent speed hits 8 and 9 so that we can watch him run. 

 

Here's my take if he can handle lead-off duties:

Buxton CF

Mauer 1B

Dozier 2B

Sano 3B

Rosario LF

Morrison DH

Castro/Garver (50/50 split)

Kepler RF

Polanco SS

[Mike Sixel]

Great stuff! I think Aybar gets the nod because we need post season experience... and Aybar can at least give us that... and maybe a better club house guy!

 

Either way... I like both...

 

But Grossman has to go!

Why do they need post season experience? Isn't having good players more important? It is in my book.

[ThejacKmp]

 

When you are competing the goal should be to have the 25 players who will make a better team up North, not hoarding mediocre players...

 

And the Twins are competing.

 

Agreed. Granite is redundant. He does nothing that someone else on the team doesn't do better. Grossman provides something that the Twins don't have (switch-hitting, OBP, right handed PH for a lefty-leaning outfit). If the best new thing Granite brings is the ability to steal a base as a pinch runner, then he belongs in AAA.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Players need rest. Grossman is not a good fielder. He's an ok hitter. I guess it depends on if you want defense or not on the days you rest a starter.

 

Grossman can play a passable left field. The Twins stand to get eaten up by lefties if they're starting two lefties in the OF and at least one at DH/1B every time they face one.

 

Doesn't even get into that Granite should be playing every day at AAA. If Buxton goes down, as he is won't to do, the Twins should have a replacement ready.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I am not arguing Granite vs. Grossman.  I am arguing the point of view that the Twins should keep Grossman regardless, since he is out of options.  

 

If he is the best player for the Twins' bench, he should come North.  If he is not, he should not.  Options or no options...

 

I've heard this argument a lot and its a fun one to make because it has a good soundbite. But it's pretty ridiculous.

 

You're not building the best Opening Day roster, you're building the best team. You will almost certainly need both Grossman and Granite at some point during the year - someone's going to get hurt (Buxton) and you're going to go to AAA. If you start with Grossman, you have Granite in AAA to fill in when the Twins need him. If you start with Granite, Grossman gets exposed to waivers and ends up elsewhere because he's a useful MLB player.

 

So let's pretend Granite > Grossman (I would disagree strongly but for the sake of argument we'll go with it). That seems simple but it's really GROSSMAN + Granite vs. GRANITE + Some 27 year old AAAA player. I take the GROSSMAN + Granite side of that everyday.

 

Competing teams don't throw away MLB talent unless the upside is a lot higher than whatever someone looking at Granite through rose shaded glasses sees.

Edited February 27, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[AZTwin]

I agree that if we like Kinley we have a lot of options of trading a borderline guy to the Miami to keep him. No reason for him to start in majors

[dgwills]

Pretty damn solid roster.  The lineup is good and even has a bench bat available. A little weak on infield defense, but the outfield defense will be great. The pitching even looks fairly reliable. Still missing an ace and a shut down reliever, but what are you going to do? Those guys don't grow on trees. Maybe Berrios and Tyler Jay can fill those roles soon. Certainly there are other players that could step up as well.

Should be a fun season.

[ewen21]

If I see Grossman DHing just once I might go postal

[ashbury]

If I see Grossman DHing just once I might go postal

How do you feel about Escobar?

[BJames]

 

Seeing that Busenitz, Curtiss and Moya probably won't make the team, that makes losing those other relief pitchers to rule 5 OK. That would have just made two more minor league relief pitchers taking up 40 man roster spots.

 

It also shows the opportunity cost of not trading some of your prospects before you end of losing them. When you have a glut of prospects at one position, you have figure out the ones you like and trade the others for spots you are weak at.

 

I see the same thing happening with starting pitchers in the next year or two.

 

[BJames]

We didn't have to many relief pitchers till the F.O. signed three new guys.  This might end up being short sided as Rodney could be gone at any time and Reed and Duke don't seem like more than a one year solution.  Long term we might need some of those guys.  Unless we've become a team that buys Free Agents every year.  

[jorgenswest]

There will be a need for a 13th pitcher. At that point someone will need to be DFA’d if the bench is Adrianza/Aybar, Escobar, Grossman and Garver. The catcher can’t be moved.

 

If Granite isn’t on the opening day roster he will likely be the one coming back as they go from 13 to 12 to 13. He really is most option ready to be the player that goes back and forth from the minors as the 13th position player. Last year Vargas was on that shuttle.

[BJames]

Grossman,  Was second on the team in BB's and last on the team in SLG.  Very odd stats.  Take away half those walks and you have a weak hitter.  Grossman's time with the Twins might be short lived. 

[DocBauer]

I've heard this argument a lot and its a fun one to make because it has a good soundbite. But it's pretty ridiculous.

 

You're not building the best Opening Day roster, you're building the best team. You will almost certainly need both Grossman and Granite at some point during the year - someone's going to get hurt (Buxton) and you're going to go to AAA. If you start with Grossman, you have Granite in AAA to fill in when the Twins need him. If you start with Granite, Grossman gets exposed to waivers and ends up elsewhere because he's a useful MLB player.

 

So let's pretend Granite > Grossman (I would disagree strongly but for the sake of argument we'll go with it). That seems simple but it's really GROSSMAN + Granite vs. GRANITE + Some 27 year old AAAA player. I take the GROSSMAN + Granite side of that everyday.

 

Competing teams don't throw away MLB talent unless the upside is a lot higher than whatever someone looking at Granite through rose shaded glasses sees.

 

100%!

 

Grossman is nothing special, but he's a versatile bench/fill-in Or complimentary player. He's a bit of a late bloomer, it appears, with less than 1,400 AB and his best 2 seasons have been since joining the Twins. At 28 until the near the season's end, there is actually some upside still. Unless my memory is disjointed, and please correct me if I'm mistaken, didn't he hit better in 2016 from the RH side and better from the LH side in 2017? Regardless, he's been better as a RH batter for his career thus far, and OK from the LH side with solid OB ability and some pop. He can play an OK corner spot.

 

You absolutely keep him over Granite to start the season if you keep 4 OF. You can bring Granite up, but you can't really bring Grossman back once gone.

 

At bar is veteran insurance due to injury or Sano suspension. And that is all, no disrespect intended. The position player portion of the roster is now set, with Vargas probably gone, assuming no surprises.

 

Hughes and Mejia take the last 2 rotation spots, barring a surprise that you just have to take a longer look at. (Sanchez suddenly looking completely different). The Rochester rotation is STACKED, even before May gets there as part of his rehab. Auditions and promotions will follow throughout the season.

 

To me, the only real question is the final bullpen slot. It comes down to Duffey and Busentiz. (I'm calling Pressly an initial lock because his stuff is too good not to come north and hope for greater consistency). Duffey has 2 FB, 2 CB, and he has looked very good at times. Consistency is the key for him as well. Any kind of change only helps him, but isn't really necessary in a pen role. Busentiz may have even better stuff, but the SO weren't there, and he didn't look as good the last couple of weeks, IMO, as he did early. Not surprising for a rookie making his debut. We're I to make a guess, Duffey wins the battle initially, but it's close.

[curt1965]

Reading the earlier posts has changed my opinion on the 4th outfield position. Originally,

I thought Grossman could go, and someone else would emerge. But I continue to be worried that this club might be susceptible to left handed pitching. Mauer, Lomo, Kepler, and Castro (probably Rosario, too) are considerably weaker against southpaws. It seems to me that last year we saw a lot of Loogys in the late innings to face one of the guys mentioned above. Garver and Escobar would be good options if that situation occurs

(If Escobar isn’t already starting). But so would Grossman, and to me he makes more sense than Adrianza or Granite. It appears possible that the team heads north with 13 pitchers,and if that happens we would be left with only 3 options on the bench. Grossman just makes too much sense right now.

I like Seth’s choice for pitchers, except I would trade Busenitz for Presley. I think that kid has a chance to be a stud, and I loved what I saw last year. If Busenitz has options, I guess Presley could make the club initially, but if his inconsistencies continue, Busenitz would only be a phone call away. In addition, I think Duffy should be a lock as the long guy. Every team absolutely needs one, but few pitchers have the mental capacity to pitch in that roll. Hughes ‘could’ do it, but I don’t think he would be happy.

Finally, my “sleeper” is Zach Littell. I’ve seen him pitch a couple of days ago, and he was terrific.

[ThejacKmp]

Grossman,  Was second on the team in BB's and last on the team in SLG.  Very odd stats.  Take away half those walks and you have a weak hitter.  Grossman's time with the Twins might be short lived.

 

Grossman,  Was second on the team in BB's and last on the team in SLG.  Very odd stats.  Take away half those walks and you have a weak hitter.  Grossman's time with the Twins might be short lived.

 

Take away half Logan Morrison's homeruns and he's a weak hitter. Take away half of kershaw's strikeouts and he's a bad pitcher.

 

Do you have any reason to take away grossman's walks? He's been doing it for two years now at the mlb level - I think it's here to stay. This isn't 1990, we don't think a player has to hit bombs to be good. Walks are great, no one can catch a walk.

[twinstalker]

People are making this too difficult. 

 

The first thing I notice is that Minnesota fans are not at all familiar with the concept of depth.  Every team, from the Twins to the Gophers (hoops and FB) to the Wolves back in the day, every team has been shallow as hell.  Then someone gets hurt, and we cry "why can't we have nice things?" and wonder why Minnesota sports are so bad or cursed. But the fact is that the men who've run the show in every sport haven't had much of a clue. Bad owners, bad front offices. Until now.

 

So Falvine is here, and guys like Aybar and others appear on the scene.  It's not because Aybar has a chance in the status quo, it's that he's a legit plan B if something bad happens. Kennys Vargas isn't an option unless needed. Same with Granite. Same with a bunch of the pitching this year.

 

IF: Mauer, Dozier, LoMo, Escobar, Sano, Polanco, Adrianza

OF: Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Grossman

 

The pitching will work itself out. There will be injuries, and Falvine will make strategic decisions based on spring training, options, injuries, etc.

 

Basically, if you have options, it probably means your default is to start the year in the minors. It's a long season, and sending a guy like Busenitz down makes sense on many levels. 

 

Vargas--will be DFA'd, but if LoMo or Mauer goes down to injury, we have depth.

 

Aybar--will get his release. But if Sano, Escobar, Adrianza, Polanco, or Dozier goes down, we have an MLB ready guy to maybe find room for.

 

Granite--will be sent down.  I see very little value in him (the ball does not come off his bat well against MLB pitching) and would deal him if another team needed his skill set. Meanwhile, he gets called up with an injury to the OF. He can play a good CF and might not hurt you too bad for a short period.

 

Grossman--obvious choice. His background says he's very good vs lhp, and he gets on base. If he just loses it and can't be a decent force vs lhp, you do not replace him with Granite, you go outside the organization for a rh bat.

 

This is not the old Twins way of thinking. If Hughes continues to suck, they will cut ties with him, but they're right to see if the latest surgery and rehab brings back his effectiveness.

 

Same with Pressly and Duffey, iyam.

 

Romero and Gonsalves go down, and there's really nothing that keeps them up, save for being exceptional all spring and having injury or performance issue with other pitchers.

 

A guy like Fernando Rodney is being paid, but there is likely a short leash. No reliever getting sent down should expect to be there for long.

 

Sanchez and his ilk--probably has a chance to pretty good, a very small chance, but I wouldn't discount the possibility. A bunch of these guys might not be good, but from a group, one can emerge, and that's someone like Sanchez (or Hughes).

 

So, given no injuries, the position players are easy, and the pitching will figure itself out over the course of March. And if the Twins have injuries during March, they've finally addressed the lack of depth issues they've had forever.

[rdehring]

Everyone has an insurance policy on their car and home, a policy from company X (no, this isn't a State Farm advertisement).  It is possible company X has re-insured their losses to some extent with company Y.  I look at Aybar as being the Twins re-insurance policy.

 

Should Sano begin the year suspended or on the DL because his leg still isn't 100%, Escobar will be starting at third.  Their insurance, should that happen, is to have Adrianza as their utility player and Gordon available at AAA.  Should something also happen to Adrianza, or Gordon prove this spring that he isn't ready for the show, they signed Aybar to a minor league deal.  Kind of like re-insurance, something you have but never expect to use! 

Edited February 28, 2018 by rdehring