Article: On Rushing Pitchers And Taking Lumps

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It seems to me that the Twins haven’t rushed players, so much as weighted the developmental league playing time too heavy in the A ball levels and too short in AA and AAA.

[markos]

I know this post was specifically about pitching, but there does seem to be a league-wide shift in hitting perparedness. Just anecdotally, it certainly feels like the past, I don't know, four seasons or so have seen a lot more successful rookie debuts than before. While obviously not 100% success rate, teams like the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Cubs and Dodgers have introduced a lot of young players to the big leagues and it seems like the majority of them have hit the ground running, and several were immediately among the best hitters in baseball. Of the large number of Twins prospects that have been promoted over the past few years, I think Sano is the only one who really arrived "ready". Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Vargas, et al - hard to argue that any of them were immediate rookie success stories.

 

I'm not sure if it is just random bad luck or what, but one of the things that I'm cautiously optimistic about the new player development is that young players will actually show up "ready" to play in the big leagues, rather than have them promoted because they had a great slash line after 100 PAs in AAA.

[Deduno Abides]

I'd make a clearer distinction between a new guy who's inconsistent but showing glimpses of the future and a guy who just flounders. Mejia versus Cole DeVries.

 

If I'm a GM trying to create my ideal formula, I will always, and I mean always, have a rookie 5th starter. Ideally, he is brought up as an injury replacement. I expect this rookie will be a mid or front end starter by the following season and who I think will take his lumps but get better as the season progresses. I want to have at least two more just as ready in AAA, again guys who I expect will eventually become at least mid rotation stalwarts. To make this work, my first two starters have to be giving me #1-2 performance and my next two guys must be legit #3's. Then, I'm always looking for a trade, at the deadline or off season, from surplus starters. It's the most sought-after asset in the game and probably the best way to extract an overpay in a trade. Not that the example is immediately comparable, but it makes the point about building assets as the recipe for competitive success: CWS trades Sales, after enjoying much of his prime at a very reasonable cost, for the very best prospect in baseball, Moncada, a future #1-2 in Kopech, a guy who might be THEIR version of the rookie #5 taking his lumps in 2018, and Basabe, who will have a good career most likely.

 

The Twins would foil my designs today. They don't have two front end starters, and maybe not even one, we don't know yet. Everyone vying to be a #3 might end up being a #4 or worse. And their rookie candidates, Sleger and Gonsalves, lack front end ceilings, and maybe even lack #3 ceilings. Romero is another year away, and we'll have to wait and see who emerges as as a potential mid or front line prospect besides Romero, who, like every pitching prospect, remains a question mark in his own right.

 

I'm convinced that the most critical component of sustained success is to build a pitching pipeline through the draft, IFA, and trades, and to systematically and consistently introduce young talent into the rotation.

I’ve been wondering about a similar idea regarding the #5 starter, although not considering as many details about the other slots.

 

What if, for example, Slegers, Gonsalves and Romero shared the #5 slot, each pitching every 18 days or so, and cycled to the minors before and after each start? They would get major league experience, learn from it, and then pitch ten or so innings in the minors between starts, where they could work on what they learned in the big leagues. If one proves that he’s should stay, basically by pitching better than someone else in the rotation, move him up and a fourth pitcher could join the rotating trio. The former starter could be that fourth pitcher, circulating between the majors and minors, or he could become a long reliever.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Deduno Abides

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’ve been wondering about a similar idea regarding the #5 starter, although not considering as many details about the other slots.

What if, for example, Slegers, Gonsalves and Romero shared the #5 slot, each pitching every 18 days or so, and cycled to the minors before and after each start? They would get major league experience, learn from it, and then pitch ten or so innings in the minors between starts, where they could work on what they learned in the big leagues. If one proves that he’s should stay, basically by pitching better than someone else in the rotation, move him up and a fourth pitcher could join the rotating trio. The former starter could be that fourth pitcher, circulating between the majors and minors, or he could become a long reliever.

Keep in mind, they are human beings too. They'd want to be rewarded for good starts, and not shunted off to the minor leagues again. Also, what we see as simple roster transactions are very much everyday life decisions for them -- where they live in Rochester or Minneapolis, their transportation, their meals, their paychecks, etc.

[FormerMinnasotan]

When a vaunted young player arrives in the major leagues and initially struggles, it's easy – perhaps even automatic – to jump to an inescapable conclusion: He was rushed.

 

... Was he though?Jose Berrios arrived in the majors in 2016 at age 22. He went on to post an 8.02 ERA in 14 starts as a Twin. Must have been rushed.

 

Byron Buxton reached the big leagues a year earlier in 2015, at age 21. He posted a brutal .576 OPS in 46 games with Minnesota. Had to be rushed.

 

And last season, as Jorge Polanco slogged his way to the end of July, one of the worst hitters in baseball, we all found ourselves wondering: Should the 23-year-old really be playing at the highest level right now? (Not that the Twins had any choice in that case.)

 

The "rushed" narrative is convenient. But not always accurate.

 

Here's the problem: You send any of those guys back to Triple-A at the time they're flailing in the major leagues, and they dominate. Often to the point where you stop seeing any benefit.

 

Buxton is a .331 career hitter at Triple-A. What's he learning if you send him back there? Minor-league batters waved at everything Berrios threw. How's he going to improve his command when 10 inches off the plate works perfectly well? Would Polanco have had the same epiphany last August if he hadn't endured the humbling stretch of failure that led up to it?

 

These case studies hint toward a universal truth: Sometimes, the only way to become a successful big-leaguer is by working through your lumps in The Show. For a team like the Twins, deep into its rebuild-from-within, this presents a paradox.

 

An Inefficient Market

 

The immense value of an effective young starting pitcher in today's game is difficult to overstate.

 

Successfully develop your own quality rotation staple, and you get optional control over (roughly) ages 24-through-30, most likely the best years his arm will ever see. All for a bit more than Jordan Zimmermann will earn this year alone in Detroit at age 32.

 

Baseball's economics are out of whack, if you haven't noticed. If this was an elephant in the room, then the beast has now emerged into the sunlight.

 

There's a reason Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb continue to wallow in free agency, their demands unmet. There's a reason the Rays are able to command a kingly sum for Chris Archer. Teams are finally seeing the lopsided value chasm across the free agency divide. Or at least, they're finally awakening to the extreme financial implications.

 

My point here is that the Twins have every incentive to find out if Gonsalves or Romero – or Zack Littell, or Lewis Thorpe, or any number of other candidates – can become one of those treasured cheap young rotation staples. But finding out will require enduring some pain.

 

Fits and Starts

 

A few years ago, Peyton Manning retired with the most passing yards and touchdowns in NFL history. Nearly two decades prior, as a 22-year-old rookie, he threw a league-leading 28 interceptions as Colts fans endured a 3-13 death march.

 

In many cases, even the greats require seasoning at the highest level to reach their potential. Not everyone is LeBron James or Randy Moss or Madison Bumgarner. It's unlikely such a rare specimen is currently in the Twins system.

 

They have do have a number of guys capable of becoming quality big-league arms – perhaps even All-Stars. But history tells us it won't happen right away. Look back at virtually any big-name Minnesota pitcher you can think of from the past two decades – Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Johan Santana, Brad Radke – they all finished with ERAs over 5 in their first MLB seasons.

 

They call the pitching mound a "hill" partially because of its shapely resemblance, but also because reaching the top can be a strenuous climb.

 

Trouble with the Curves

 

Gonsalves is going to open this season in Rochester. Romero is likely ticketed for Chattanooga, but with two dozen starts already under his belt there, he'll move up quickly. They're both still only 23, but Minnesota's top two pitching prospects could be making cases for promotions by July or so. We'll undoubtedly start hearing calls for them if anyone in the Twins rotation isn't pulling his weight.

 

At that point, Twins decision-makers will need to weigh some difficult considerations. Do you leave these talented hurlers down on the farm, even if they're mowing down the International League, knowing the likely outcome of a call-up?

 

There's always something to work on, always something to improve. Nothing wrong with waiting another year until they're 24 and a bit more refined, right?

 

The problem here is that you might only be delaying the inevitable: a date with MLB's harsh learning curve. And there's another curve to think about here: aging. Pitchers generally experience their best years earlier than hitters. Velocity trends downward pretty much after age 20. If Gonsalves and Romero are healthy and throwing hard this summer, you don't necessarily want to waste a bunch of their bullets in the minors.

 

Derek Falvey's analytically-minded pitching brain trust has access to far more data than me, and I trust them to take it seriously. It will be interesting to see how these realities weigh against a variety of other factors – a team in contention, a potentially crowded rotation scenario following returns of Ervin Santana and Trevor May, the unique ability of a stud like Romero to impact a division race if he can buck the trend and succeed immediately.

 

Sometimes, you've gotta rush a little to get where you're going on time.

 

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Here is the thing, since Romero is on his second option on the 40 man he should start in AAA. I mean until his shoulder injury happened in August resulting in 4 poor outings he was all but ready to be called up to Rochester last year. With his innings limit and second year option being on the 40 man he, not Zack Littell should start in Rochester (this is after all Littell’s first year on the 40 man), and also Thorpe should start in Chattanooga as he has his own innings limit and while he will probably burn his first year in the minors it would be great to see him in AAA by years end giving him the opportunity to make his Twins debut in 2019 as a starter. But that’s just my opinion.

[Deduno Abides]

Keep in mind, they are human beings too. They'd want to be rewarded for good starts, and not shunted off to the minor leagues again. Also, what we see as simple roster transactions are very much everyday life decisions for them -- where they live in Rochester or Minneapolis, their transportation, their meals, their paychecks, etc.

Young pitchers would rather know that they will play in the majors on certain dates as part of a development plan, with the opportunity to prove they belong, than to stay in the minors until who knows when, not knowing when they will pitch or for how long.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Young pitchers would rather know that they will play in the majors on certain dates as part of a development plan, with the opportunity to prove they belong, than to stay in the minors until who knows when, not knowing when they will pitch or for how long.

I don't know. It would be quite a departure. Even if you tell them the plan, the players might feel like they are getting jerked around. They would like days in the majors, but I don't think they would see the alternative as being stuck in AAA, they would see it as getting a chance to stay in MLB.

 

It is also somewhat moot. I don't know how much development happens in a game here and a game there. I like the numbers side of the game, but even I feel that development and adjustment is often more art than science. And the Twins current SP prospects don't even have any meaningful AAA experience yet -- by the time that happens, there might be some clear separation between them as far as who is ready for a MLB trial.

[Monkeypaws]

When there is nothing left to be learned in the minors, sink or swim. Or at least tread water.Buxton and Berrios are excellent examples, to be followed.

[KirbyDome89]

Injuries.

 

Nobody wants to see them and there's no such thing as good timing but they're inevitable. I would love to see some of the young arms have a chance to throw some MLB innings before they're 26 y/o fringe 40 man decisions. 

 

Obviously all development rates are different, and injuries in the minors can halt progress. However, you never know how long an arm is going to last, and having young, live arms on the major league roster gives the Twins the best chance to maximize the return on their investment.  

[wabene]

Keep in mind, they are human beings too. They'd want to be rewarded for good starts, and not shunted off to the minor leagues again. Also, what we see as simple roster transactions are very much everyday life decisions for them -- where they live in Rochester or Minneapolis, their transportation, their meals, their paychecks, etc.

I think this is missing a new trend of rotating bullpen pieces to contend with shorter starts and more bullpen innings needed. I think many would still line up considering the size of those paychecks and all those free rides and meals etc. If you know the game going in and the possible reward then I think it would be ok.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think this is missing a new trend of rotating bullpen pieces to contend with shorter starts and more bullpen innings needed. I think many would still line up considering the size of those paychecks and all those free rides and meals etc. If you know the game going in and the possible reward then I think it would be ok.

Sure, bring SP prospects up to potentially contribute as bullpen guys, etc. That's not unusual. But that's not what I was responding to, which was literally starting a guy, then sending him down, and repeating that every turn through the rotation. Heck, if I was a teammate, I am not sure I would endorse that either -- if you think the pitcher is ready, let him pitch. If not, leave him in AAA, and get someone else who is ready.

[wabene]

Sure, bring SP prospects up to potentially contribute as bullpen guys, etc. That's not unusual. But that's not what I was responding to, which was literally starting a guy, then sending him down, and repeating that every turn through the rotation. Heck, if I was a teammate, I am not sure I would endorse that either -- if you think the pitcher is ready, let him pitch. If not, leave him in AAA, and get someone else who is ready.

Yes I can see your point. I was however speaking of doing this with SP and just referencing a trend I saw last year when teams had arms waiting at AAA and rotating with the guy who just got used up in the MLB pen. This was a bullpen trend that I liked last year. I think this idea presented for the 5th starter had some merits as well.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Original Whizzinator

[BJames]

I've always been for giving young pitchers a couple of starts and send them back down.  It take time to adjust to the Bigs.  I'm talking about preparation, large stadiums, interviews, new teammates etc.  Not to mention your pitching against the equivalent of the AAA All-star team every start.  It's my belief it take 3-4 up and back to AAA before it starts to click and the comfort level come around.  I'm one that believe we might be surprised with Slegers this year.   

[bird]

 

I’ve been wondering about a similar idea regarding the #5 starter, although not considering as many details about the other slots.

What if, for example, Slegers, Gonsalves and Romero shared the #5 slot, each pitching every 18 days or so, and cycled to the minors before and after each start? They would get major league experience, learn from it, and then pitch ten or so innings in the minors between starts, where they could work on what they learned in the big leagues. If one proves that he’s should stay, basically by pitching better than someone else in the rotation, move him up and a fourth pitcher could join the rotating trio. The former starter could be that fourth pitcher, circulating between the majors and minors, or he could become a long reliever.

 

 

Wouldn't it be fun to have this conversation with Falvey, Stiel, or someone else from the development staff? Maybe it's just because I know so little, but to me, this idea makes sense. Personally, I think you're a genius.

[Deduno Abides]

Wouldn't it be fun to have this conversation with Falvey, Stiel, or someone else from the development staff? Maybe it's just because I know so little, but to me, this idea makes sense. Personally, I think you're a genius.

And you, sir, are a wise and excellent judge.

[bird]

 

Keep in mind, they are human beings too. They'd want to be rewarded for good starts, and not shunted off to the minor leagues again. Also, what we see as simple roster transactions are very much everyday life decisions for them -- where they live in Rochester or Minneapolis, their transportation, their meals, their paychecks, etc.

 

 

Those are good points, although it seems we already have quite the shuttle system going on. When I execute my bloodless coup and take over, I'm going to buy and furnish a couple of condos on the riverfront near Target Field for these shuttled players to use. Getting a major league paycheck while they're up should take care of any further inconvenience, and if they want more rewards, there's always stickers.

Edited February 27, 2018 by birdwatcher

[Otto von Ballpark]

As much as I enjoy the numbers, I think MLB development/transitions are still often more art than science. I'm all for giving guys spot starts like Jorge last summer, and definitely promoting them late in the season or anytime you have clinched or been eliminated. But I don't think guys universally need (or would necessarily respond well to) repeated cycles of MLB promotions in a short time period. And likewise, counting on those guys to collectively fill a full rotation spot too early would also seem to be a bit of an abdication of responsibility and judgement on the part of management. A lot of people here get upset when management lets someone go without a full trial, but that's a huge part of their job -- if all they were supposed to do was give every player a couple hundred innings or a thousand PAs, well, anyone could do that. Similarly, while we might see 3-4 SP prospects and want to sort through them in the 5th starter spot, part of the FO's job is to ascertain distinctions and differences between them and judge their preparation and readiness individually, sometimes even without the benefit of MLB appearances.

[wabene]

The thing I liked about MLB teams aggressively shuttling relievers up and down is if done properly and with the right accumulated talent you could be effectively operating with a larger roster. This could be a real advantage.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

The problem of rushing players is that you start the service clock ticking. Teams like the Twins can't afford to waste 2-3 of the cost controlled years of the player "learning the ropes" at the MLB level.

This is exactly what it's about.  Although there is some middle ground here.  

 

I think what happens it people always remember guys like Strasburg, Harper, and Trout who flew the minors and immediately became superstars. This isn't unique to Twins fans, but when a player struggles we automatically assume he's a bust or he was rushed.  We are very quick to judge players on small sample sizes.  Very very few prospects quickly succeed at the major league level.  We need to have some patience.

[kab21]

I am not sure I understand the point of the article. Everyone wants Gonsalves, Romero, Littel or Thorpe (not many expect to see him this season) to get their chance and I think everyone expects them to struggle initially. You don't directly say it but it almost seems like the point of your article is an argument for calling them up sooner (or even opening day like some want) rather than later.

 

The reason that they will start in AAA is that they have options while the veterans don't and this creates a natural plan B where the overall numbers are greater.

 

I would also argue that none of these players have mastered AAA yet. Gonsalves is the closest and if injury/ineffectiveness forced Plan B on the Twins as early as spring training I wouldn't hesitate to call him up. Romero hasn't pitched at AAA yet but if forced I could see him skipping a level or pitching minimally at the level. Littell and Thorpe have barely pitched at AA and I wouldn't have a problem if they pitched almost the entire season at AA/AAA. All of the pitchers mentioned will get their chances in the majors even if they have to take their lumps.

 

But mostly I disagree with some of the comments that players are held down to extend years of team control. Sure, this happen for the last month of the season but at the beginning of the season they are held down because they have options while the veterans don't. It is better to have 8-10 possible starters instead of cutting two veterans and now having only 6-8 possible starters for the season. It currently looks like several of the prospects will get a chance to pitch for the Twins this season.

I think the article has more relevance to the reluctance to call up older RP's that seemed to go from level to level and never made it up to the Twins. They seemed to be calling up less talented but more AAA/MLB experienced arms last year instead of pushing the more intriguing arms.

[Mike Sixel]

You think Bryant of the cubs was held down because he wasn't ready, not for control purposes? This happens every year, at the beginning of the year. I doubt Berrios was miraculously ready last year.... After a couple stats.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[kab21]

 

You think Bryant of the cubs was held down because he wasn't ready, not for control purposes? This happens every year, at the beginning of the year. I doubt Berrios was miraculously ready last year.... After a couple stats.

that is the extreme case of a potentially elite player. That certainly happens. None of the players mentioned are remotely close to being similar.

Berrios being held down last year had no effect on his FA or even super 2 status. It was a method to increase the number of potential starters that the Twins had for 2017 and they needed everyone of them (and more actually).

[DocBauer]

Different times and different FO, but the Twins have had a history of being aggressive in promoting young pitchers from AA, or barely hitting AAA. This would include guys like Neagle, Erickson and Radke. Past history I know, and just a few names, (and not speaking of various position pkayers), so the idea of being aggressive isn't foreign to the organization.

 

I agree with the premise of taking lumps and learning. Haven't seen many kids come up and just see immediate success. There are adjustments to be made at every level achieved, and no question hitting the majors is by far the biggest. I absolutely agree it's a case by case scenario with each young player. And I also think some of this naturally sorts itself out.

 

I don't like the way Slegers was handled late last season, sitting for so long before getting to pitch again. But then again, we were in a playoff hunt, hopefully he still learned some things. At some point, injury or ineffectiveness will allow Slegers and Gonsalves, maybe Romero, to get some time. And there is also September.

 

Not going to get in to the #1 starter debate again. But I want the Twins to put the best rotation/staff together they can. While doing so, that doesn't mean these young guys don't get call ups, spot starts, etc. Usually turns out to be a pretty organic process. And I don't buy the "so many bullets" theory. Maybe there is some validity in regard to RP who can throw hard and only need 2 pitches. But a SP develops 3 or 4 pitches, including something off speed. They learn to set up hitters differently as they go through the lineup multiple times. A young SP can throw all the gas he wants, but will probably be unsuccessful just doing so. Yes, he can take lumps at the ML level, and yes he can learn from that. But aren't fewer lumps preferable because he's honed his pitches and knowledge of "How to pitch" as important as gas?