Article: Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects: #1 Royce Lewis

[MN_ExPat]

 

If they won't take guys on social media, why is Rooker in this system?

I don't follow anyone on twitter, personally I think it's stupid, but there is (to me) a rather profound difference between being on Social Media and showing one's hind end on a routine basis.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't follow anyone on twitter, personally I think it's stupid, but there is (to me) a rather profound difference between being on Social Media and showing one's hind end on a routine basis.

 

Thas is literally a straw man argument, compared to what was posted here.

 

I love Rooker on Twitter, but he's quite active and quite vocal. 180 degrees from what they supposedly like about Lewis. 

[slash129]

Well, the good thing about Rooker on social media is that you get access to interviews like this.

 

https://warstic.com/blogs/news/episode-005-learn-it-to-earn-it-with-reigning-sec-triple-crown-winner-brent-rooker

[bird]

 

I don't follow anyone on twitter, personally I think it's stupid, but there is (to me) a rather profound difference between being on Social Media and showing one's hind end on a routine basis.

 

It would be nice to put the social media controversy here into proper perspective and then to put it to bed.

It's not about the use of social media per se. The source cited by Parker, I'm positive, was simply pointing out that Lewis isn't a self-absorbed, attention-hungry narcissist but instead is a humble, team-oriented, mature, gracious young man. No one's saying the opposite is true about every active user. Are they?

[Mr. Brooks]

Thas is literally a straw man argument, compared to what was posted here.

 

I love Rooker on Twitter, but he's quite active and quite vocal. 180 degrees from what they supposedly like about Lewis.

I'm sure they weigh many things that aren't dealbreakers.

They never said they don't draft guys on social media.

 

If they'd said that one of the reasons they drafted Lewis was because of his speed, would you interpret that to mean that they won't draft anyone who is slow?

[Twinfan & Dad]

This young man makes it difficult for the "glass half empty voices on this site" to say anything negative. Hard worker,humble and just gets it. It doesnt matter what position he ends up playing Lewis will be fun to watch mature.

[Shane Wahl]

I waited to put Buxton up to No. 1 for a little bit, and the position issue is a bit of, well, an issue. I also favor guys well up in the system, especially pitchers. I am very high on Romero.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

we disagree. Imo, if you decide to pass on starting pitching when you have early picks, and don't like to trade prospects (as the FO was quoted as saying last week), you need to be great at hitting and defense. 

 

I hope no one is going to come back and say it is "easy" to find good players later, since for the entire existence of this site, people said teams cycle in competitiveness based on when they draft....

I'm not sure what you're getting at here... doesn't pretty much every MLB front office agree that drafting for need is a terrible idea? Some practice it better than others, but I've never heard a front office stray from that line of thinking publicly.

 

If the Twins liked Lewis best, they should have drafted Lewis. It's that simple, really. Worry about filling other positions further down the draft because, chances are, you'll think a pitcher is the BPA somewhere in your first 2-3 picks.

 

And the Twins did just that.

[twinstalker]

Foremost, if you're sitting in the #1 position in the draft, it's almost by definition stupid to take a pitcher due to the risk.  That pitcher would have to be a college pitcher who sets himself apart from not only the other pitchers but maybe the past decade of pitchers and of course the hitters.  I think Strasburg is an example of that.  But if Harper is in that draft, you don't take Strasburg.

 

I have no issue with the Twins taking Lewis number one, especially given that doing so allowed some financial freedom and creativity.  However, let's not forget we're only going to get a partial season and six full years before he hits free agency.  Scott Boras isn't about to change his ways wrt his players playing out their team control asap.  And knowing that, the Twins will really be facing decisions on whether to trade Lewis by his second or third full year.

 

That's not optimal.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here... doesn't pretty much every MLB front office agree that drafting for need is a terrible idea? Some practice it better than others, but I've never heard a front office stray from that line of thinking publicly.

 

If the Twins liked Lewis best, they should have drafted Lewis. It's that simple, really. Worry about filling other positions further down the draft because, chances are, you'll think a pitcher is the BPA somewhere in your first 2-3 picks.

 

And the Twins did just that.

there was no clear BPA.... And now you can find good players outside the top ten picks? Winning teams don't have to cycle down?

 

All I'm saying is, if you should away from pitchers, you either need to trade for them, or sign free agents or get lucky. They've indicated by their actions they don't sign elite free agents, or trade for them.... So, it is down to luck.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

there was no clear BPA.... And now you can find good players outside the top ten picks? Winning teams don't have to cycle down?

All I'm saying is, if you should away from pitchers, you either need to trade for them, or sign free agents or get lucky. They've indicated by their actions they don't sign elite free agents, or trade for them.... So, it is down to luck.

Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take.

 

Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.

[wabene]

Hey I resemble that remark Brock! I'm definitely in the camp that you take the BPA and that pitchers are very risky. Houston is a great example. I would say the great majority of our top pitchers came from other than the top of the draft. It is the same for other teams as well. Right now our top guy berrios was a supplemental pick amid the #1 in the staff is Gibby.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take.

 

Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.

 

Didin't they trade for a great pitcher last year?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take.

 

Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.

 

We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

I'll also let it drop but it's not that it's impossible to get good players, it's just a lot harder when you don't have a "gimme" pick at the top and then the ability to draft intelligently down the board. You only have the option to draft intelligently down the board and the hit rate between good and bad teams on those picks is a pretty small gap (but that gap makes all the difference in the world when you nail the pick on a guy down the board every other draft or so).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Didin't they trade for a great pitcher last year?

Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

"Upon being selected first overall last June, he stashed his $6.7 million signing bonus in a trust fund, opting to live off his modest minor-league wage and foregoing the typical flashy celebratory splurge."

Probably more like 3.7 million after taxes but on the surface of it  he's either  a smart kid or has some smart advisors.      Not only is he set for life he can still say "Sorry, I can't pick up this check cuz I don't have access to the money."    

 

That's still going to generate a six figure income on a yearly basis... very smart move. He can do whatever he wants for the rest of his life if baseball fails. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.

 

no one is arguing to give up on Lewis. No one is arguing he doesn't look to have a great future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

no one is arguing to give up on Lewis. No one is arguing he doesn't look to have a great future.

Oh, I'm not saying you are, only that it's close to impossible to get a very good starting pitcher without him being included in the deal.

 

Here's hoping the Twins have a couple of prospects step forward in the coming years so that holes can be filled with legitimately above average players in trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.

 

I would argue that given the depth of the system at SS, trading a guy like Lewis for an ace makes sense... unless you think this kid is the next Trout. I don't think that's the case personally, and while I'm happy that the front office (thus far at least) appears to have hit a home run, this home run can be turned around to make our current team a legit playoff team. 

 

BPA works great until you find yourself rather lacking in an area.  You have to supplement that area at some point, whether by FA or trades. We are at a point where we need to supplement it, and I'm not sure Lewis should be off the table in that regard if it gets us an ace. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would argue that given the depth of the system at SS, trading a guy like Lewis for an ace makes sense... unless you think this kid is the next Trout. I don't think that's the case personally, and while I'm happy that the front office (thus far at least) appears to have hit a home run, this home run can be turned around to make our current team a legit playoff team. 

 

BPA works great until you find yourself rather lacking in an area.  You have to supplement that area at some point, whether by FA or trades. We are at a point where we need to supplement it, and I'm not sure Lewis should be off the table in that regard if it gets us an ace. 

I'm not saying Lewis should be off the table, I'm only saying he should be off the table right now.

 

Because I strongly feel that while he's a 25-ish prospect right now, he'll be a top ten guy by season's end.

 

Which means he can centerpiece a deal for basically any pitcher on the market and other teams can't beat the offer. Right now, that's not the case. You'll be tossing in other quality prospects to match other teams, likely good prospects with real upside like Thorpe or Gonsalves.

[gunnarthor]

 

We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

I'm not sure if you're referring to my posts where I've basically said that the Twins down years (11-14) were because of a natural cycle of late drafts catching up to them after a decade of generally late picks. If it is, I've never said you had to draft a pitcher. You're just less likely to get elite talent if you're picking 24th every year. 

[TFRazor]

 

If they won't take guys on social media, why is Rooker in this system?

Seriously? That's what stuck with you about this?

[bird]

 

We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

 

You're attempting to pin a simple faulty conclusion on us here, and I'm urging you to avoid this rhetorical technique when you have so much to offer without it, my friend. That's a simplistic statement we don't hear on these threads.

 

Lewis gets ranked by BA just a few slots ahead of the other four, the pitchers. Greene is still viewed as having ace upside, but the consensus is that there is a boatload of refinement work on his horizon, and therefore no massive amount of confidence about him from most evaluators. Of the other three, Gore ekes out a tiny edge in terms of optimism for future acehood. The other two, Wright and McKay, are getting more #2 than #1 hype these days. All this just reinforces a view that, if you think Lewis is their "equal", and perhaps gets an edge because of his inherent risk advantage over pitchers and his makeup, you take him. Lewis over Greene and Buxton over Gausman, I say.

 

Your statement above, using the words "good players" doesn't help us sort through much of anything. But let's think about the difference between an "ace" and a front-of-the-rotation starter. The second guy is part of a very large spectrum. The ace very much less so, agreed? And so dang rare!!!

 

So how do teams get "good players" who are pitchers who are aces? Mike, they hardly EVER do. Even when they do, it's more often Verlander, who is no longer giving you #1 performance, or it's Sale, who required a future ace, Kopech, as part of the return along with the best prospect in all of baseball and two other good prospects.

 

I say, forget worrying about aces and concentrate on finding front-line talent. The Twins only have three such prospects that we know of in the pipeline (Romero, Enslow, and Graterol), and that's not enough. But please, Mike, let's stop repeatedly citing Ryan's irrelevant history of failure on this. Find me indicators that Falvey is going to fail if you want to bolster your case for pessimism. He failed to land Ohtani and had to settle for a couple of decent prospects in exchange for IFA pool dough in that long shot effort. He missed on Darvish. He passed on some talent to take Lewis instead, and then he hit on Enslow.

 

Looking at BA's Top 100, there are almost NO pitching prospects outside of Ohtani that would garner a consensus view that they're destined to be aces, and that includes the couple dozen 1st-round picks. Take CWS, for example. They have 5 pitchers on it who were 1st round selections. Cease came to them with Eloy Jiminez in exchange for Quintana. He has #2 ceiling at best. Fullmer is destined for the bullpen. Zacch Burdi too, IF he recovers from injury. Dunning is at best a #3, like our Gonsalves. Hansen, an early2nd rounder, is a #3. So Kopech is the one guy who gets a #1-2 label out of 5 1st round selections. Clevland's 1st rounder, McKenzie, is a #2. Detroit's Faedo and Manning, probably the same thing, maybe less.

 

All of this is just to say, yes, finding front line guys is really hard. For everyone. You can draft them (Berrios), you can find them occasionally via the IFA (Romero, Graterol), and you can trade for them once in awhile but you need assets to trade. Dozier should net a front line starter, and I for one am glad they didn't settle for DeLeon. Or, you can sign one as a FA. They missed on the only one out there this time.

 

Personally, I like Falvey's chances of building a decent rotation. Just not in time for the 2018 season..

 

So Mr. Falvey, thank you for letting your scouts do their work and point you in the direction of the BPA in Royce Lewis.

 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

I know alot of Twins were upset by not taking Wright, Gore or Greene but I'd bet strong money that Lewis turns into a star barring an injury.  The kid not only is blessed with all the physical tools but by having a great head on his shoulders and completely grounded.  If you didn't know better you'd think he was a mid round draft pick and he hangs with the players that are, but on the diamond there is no mistake that he is an elite talent. 

 

When he first got on the scene in Ft Myers (before the GCL season started), Royce was in a scrimmage game with Kohl Stewart pitching to him for two at bats.  I talked to Kohl after the game about Royce and what he thought about his talent, and Kohl said "he's got better hands than Buxton does at this point".  I asked him to elaborate and Stewart said Lewis was not only making adjustments between at bats but within at bats and that Royce's hards are very steady while Buxton is constantly moving his hands.  

 

6/24/17

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvVY_NEHLcw

 

When Royce started the season in the GCL, he did not look like a SS, he looked like a really athletic kid who they stuck at the position. Despite his blazing speed his footwork was well below average, but with more reps and working with coaches, it improved leaps and bounds in just a couple of months.  His arm, while I have defended it on numerous occasions, did appear average to slightly above.  One of my biggest gripes was his near "crow hop" throwing motion from the position but it lessened throughout the GCL season as well.  He definitely has the talent and aptitude to stick at the position but I'm wondering if his bat and speed abilities are going to be so far ahead of his defensive prowess that the team might just move him to the outfield to get him to the show quicker.  I won't be shocked if he's not in the MLB before his 21st birthday; he's that talented.

 

Here are a few videos I took of Royce in the GCL:

 

6/30 and 7/1 hitting, running and fielding

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C29KTFqS51U

 

7/4 hitting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5C5o_GoSP0

 

7/22 hitting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chl23GgzMMo

 

8/4 -8/5 hitting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKE9Mfh9TZQ

Edited February 22, 2018 by Bob Sacamento

[Mr. Brooks]

I initially wanted a pitcher as well (Gore or Greene), but I'm thrilled that they picked Lewis.

He's going to be a star, IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

That's an awfully big leg kick.

[AZTwin]

 

I initially wanted a pitcher as well (Gore or Greene), but I'm thrilled that they picked Lewis.
He's going to be a star, IMO.

Same here... I didn't read about him at all until a few hours before the draft and was loving it.  Wasn't feeling McKay at all. Wright scared me.  I wanted Greene but I wasn't sure.  I think Gore would be a great pick but he seemed to be the 4th best value at pitcher for that pick and it'd be hard to reach that much.  Then I read about Lewis.  Athletic as hell.  Even better intangibles.  The kicker?  Coming at a discount to get another guy... After Rooker and Leach, I was skeptical again (they didn't seem like the high dollar guy, and I wanted the Minnesota Pitcher) but then we got Enlow.  Loved that.

[AZTwin]

Bob... I saw him in Cedar Rapids and for some reason when I saw him, he reminded me of George Springer.  Not sure why exactly, but just made me think of him.  Thoughts?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

 

Bob... I saw him in Cedar Rapids and for some reason when I saw him, he reminded me of George Springer.  Not sure why exactly, but just made me think of him.  Thoughts?

Not the first time I've heard the comp and as Lewis ages that seems a similar body type for him to fill out to. I'm not sure on the power developing as to Springer's level and I'd hope Royce keeps some of his speed (and develops more basestealing technique) as he ages.