2018 Draft stuff

[biggentleben]

I'll not do this every week, but my first of my mock drafts (will be a new one every Monday now until the draft):

https://calltothepen.com/2018/04/30/mlb-draft-mock-draft-version-1-0/

[gunnarthor]

 

I'll not do this every week, but my first of my mock drafts (will be a new one every Monday now until the draft):

https://calltothepen.com/2018/04/30/mlb-draft-mock-draft-version-1-0/

I like mock drafts. BA has one up but it's behind a pay wall.

[gunnarthor]

Mayo has a mock up

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/projections-for-all-30-first-round-draft-picks/c-274577288

 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Your YouTube is going to be a very good source for my mock drafts (first one comes out Monday, just saying...)

I've still got alot of video that I haven't gotten out there yet from the WWBA in October, couple from this years draft and a couple for the next two drafts.  

[gunnarthor]

Callis has a mock up - https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214

 

Mocks are sort of fun if for no other reason to see how some strange things could happen. Callis has the Twins nabbing Florida RHP Jackson Kowar who, at #20, would be a pretty nice get.

Callis also suggested that a hamstring injury might let Kumar Rocker to fall past the Twins to the Cubs.

[gunnarthor]

fangraphs mock - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

 

Twins taking Turang, the shortstop with lots of tools. Also notes that the Twins were heavily watching Rocker before he went down.

[gunnarthor]

For those interested, SI wrote a mostly sympathetic article about Luke Heimlich, the standout college pitcher who plead guilty to a crim sex crime against his 6 year old niece when he was 15 (I believe he was 13 when the crime occurred). 

 

Heimlich has top shelf stuff and was going to be a first round pick last year before the story surfaced. No one drafted him and he went back to school for another year. He's still dominating on the diamond. It's an open question on whether any team will draft him. My guess is no but someone will quietly offer him a post draft free agent deal, cut him when the story gets out, and then the Cubs will sign him for even less.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/05/16/luke-heimlich-oregon-state

 

I have no idea where to stand on this issue. On one hand, the allegations he plead guilty to are creepy as ****. On the other hand, I strongly believe that children should be given the chance to rehabilitate and the experts say he is very unlikely to commit such a crime again and he successfully completed the programs he needed. On the third hand, that shouldn't mean he gets a million dollar job. On the fourth hand, this wouldn't have been a story if he wasn't an accomplished athlete (Oregon State has 11 registered sex offenders who are not the focus of campus newspaper stories).

 

The article talks with sexual abuse survivors and experts as well as crim sex abuse lawyers. I think those parts were the most interesting. Yes, innocent people plead guilty to these kind of crimes all the time but guilty people are also full of denial of the harm they caused. The entire thing sucks.

 

At the end of the day, if the Twins get him, I'll probably end up hoping for the best b/c I root for the uniform but I'll feel gross about it, just like I did when I rooted for AP. But I hope that we find a good college pitcher without the issues instead. 

[Mike Sixel]

For those interested, SI wrote a mostly sympathetic article about Luke Heimlich, the standout college pitcher who plead guilty to a crim sex crime against his 6 year old niece when he was 15 (I believe he was 13 when the crime occurred).

 

Heimlich has top shelf stuff and was going to be a first round pick last year before the story surfaced. No one drafted him and he went back to school for another year. He's still dominating on the diamond. It's an open question on whether any team will draft him. My guess is no but someone will quietly offer him a post draft free agent deal, cut him when the story gets out, and then the Cubs will sign him for even less.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/05/16/luke-heimlich-oregon-state

 

I have no idea where to stand on this issue. ,,......pitcher without the issues instead.

Tough call. I too believe in second chances. But, I don't know that I want to root for him on my team. I certainly wouldn't say he shouldn't get a job, and baseball is a job.... But I don't want to root for him. Tough call.

 

KLAW, iirc, won't even rate him. But I could be remembering that wrong.

[AZTwin]

It would be a huge distraction in the lockeroom. The kid made his bed and now has to lie in it. Pass

[70charger]

He pled guilty but maintains he was innocent, and given the state of the criminal justice system, you really can't take a guilty plea at face value.

 

That said, if our criminal justice system doesn't include rehabilitation, then it's broken. And if we can't ever move beyond what a child did at age 13, then how can we claim we believe in rehabilitation?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

For those interested, SI wrote a mostly sympathetic article about Luke Heimlich, the standout college pitcher who plead guilty to a crim sex crime against his 6 year old niece when he was 15 (I believe he was 13 when the crime occurred). 

 

Heimlich has top shelf stuff and was going to be a first round pick last year before the story surfaced. No one drafted him and he went back to school for another year. He's still dominating on the diamond. It's an open question on whether any team will draft him. My guess is no but someone will quietly offer him a post draft free agent deal, cut him when the story gets out, and then the Cubs will sign him for even less.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/05/16/luke-heimlich-oregon-state

 

I have no idea where to stand on this issue. On one hand, the allegations he plead guilty to are creepy as ****. On the other hand, I strongly believe that children should be given the chance to rehabilitate and the experts say he is very unlikely to commit such a crime again and he successfully completed the programs he needed. On the third hand, that shouldn't mean he gets a million dollar job. On the fourth hand, this wouldn't have been a story if he wasn't an accomplished athlete (Oregon State has 11 registered sex offenders who are not the focus of campus newspaper stories).

 

The article talks with sexual abuse survivors and experts as well as crim sex abuse lawyers. I think those parts were the most interesting. Yes, innocent people plead guilty to these kind of crimes all the time but guilty people are also full of denial of the harm they caused. The entire thing sucks.

 

At the end of the day, if the Twins get him, I'll probably end up hoping for the best b/c I root for the uniform but I'll feel gross about it, just like I did when I rooted for AP. But I hope that we find a good college pitcher without the issues instead. 

I don't think this is a tough call. The kid should get  a second chance.

 

The issue at hand is whether or not he's done enough to earn it. That is something only a team can determine (and many in a team's fanbase won't care), and I can certainly see wanting to shy away from him. It's hard to tell whether there's genuine remorse from just a few articles, nor can we see the amount of rehabilitation he's done in comparison to the nature of the crime. Any team looking to draft him should be looking very close at this stuff.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I don't think this is a tough call. The kid should get  a second chance.

 

The issue at hand is whether or not he's done enough to earn it. That is something only a team can determine (and many in a team's fanbase won't care), and I can certainly see wanting to shy away from him. It's hard to tell whether there's genuine remorse from just a few articles, nor can we see the amount of rehabilitation he's done in comparison to the nature of the crime. Any team looking to draft him should be looking very close at this stuff.

 

As a father of a five-year-old girl, I'd actively stop rooting for the Twins if they gave it to him. He can go have a second chance as an accountant or whatever. 

[nicksaviking]

 

As a father of a five-year-old girl, I'd actively stop rooting for the Twins if they gave it to him. He can go have a second chance as an accountant or whatever. 

 

Maybe wait until your kid is 13 before making your final answer.

[kab21]

 

As a father of a five-year-old girl, I'd actively stop rooting for the Twins if they gave it to him. He can go have a second chance as an accountant or whatever. 

Yes, he can have his second chance by not being in jail and working a normal job. An MLB team just doesn't need to go there for talent.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Maybe wait until your kid is 13 before making your final answer.

 

I went to Oregon State's rival, and most of the people I know who went to OSU are pretty insufferable on the topic of Heimlich. The truth is he wouldn't be on the team if he were a utility infielder or if the team weren't aiming for another College World Series title. What he admitted guilt for is sickening and the fact that he's trying to pawn off that he received "bad legal advice" is even more revolting. The kid took an easy way out by avoiding trial and is playing the victim when what he did became public.

 

I couldn't in good conscience put my daughter in a Twins shirt if the organization chose willing to stand behind Heimlich. So I'd walk away. 

[Mike Sixel]

These last few responses show just how hard this decision is....rehabilitation sounds great, until the person moves into your neighborhood, or is on your favorite team.....this is, as I said above, not an easy decision imo.

 

Because of the headaches, I'd pass on him as a team. 

[70charger]

 

These last few responses show just how hard this decision is....rehabilitation sounds great, until the person moves into your neighborhood, or is on your favorite team.....this is, as I said above, not an easy decision imo.

 

Because of the headaches, I'd pass on him as a team. 

 

Just makes me uncomfortable because it comes down to nothing but PR. It's substance-free argumentum ab genitalia. Bad arguments are still bad if you preface them with "as a parent..."

 

I prefer not to be ruled by the lynch mob. Maybe that's just me.

[Mike Sixel]

Just makes me uncomfortable because it comes down to nothing but PR. It's substance-free argumentum ab genitalia. Bad arguments are still bad if you preface them with "as a parent..."

 

I prefer not to be ruled by the lynch mob. Maybe that's just me.

I pretty much flip flop on this all the time. I see both arguments.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Just makes me uncomfortable because it comes down to nothing but PR. It's substance-free argumentum ab genitalia. Bad arguments are still bad if you preface them with "as a parent..."

 

I prefer not to be ruled by the lynch mob. Maybe that's just me.

 

I think if you want to see the lynch mob mentality in full effect, I'd head to Brenda Tracy's twitter page. For the back story, she survived a gang rape by members of the Oregon State football team to become an advocate for victim's rights.

 

The wormhole of hate she gets on this Tweet is phenomenally bad.

 

 

And this one.

 

 

And this one.

 

 

Even if Heimlich wins them game 7 of the World Series, there's nothing good that comes from the team drafting Luke Heimlich.

[70charger]

And bad arguments are still bad when you preface them with "as a rape victim..." It's still 100% emotion. Congratulations for believing the victim unconditionally, with no concession made for pesky truth or the possibility of reformation. So brave to refuse to think.

 

If you put athletes on a pedestal and idolize them, then that's on you. If you can't separate your personal status from a justice that ought to be impartial, then that's also on you.

[Mike Sixel]

And bad arguments are still bad when you preface them with "as a rape victim..." It's still 100% emotion. Congratulations for believing the victim unconditionally, with no concession made for pesky truth or the possibility of reformation. So brave to refuse to think.

 

If you put athletes on a pedestal and idolize them, then that's on you. If you can't separate your personal status from a justice that ought to be impartial, then that's also on you.

You'd be cool with a murderer and rapist living next to you? I mean, in general, in a weird world where people are rational....

[70charger]

 

You'd be cool with a murderer and rapist living next to you? I mean, in general, in a weird world where people are rational....

 

Chances are, one or two already have.  Same with you.

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

that wasn't the question.....

 

Look, in general I agree that people deserve chances....but people and the real world aren't rational. Demanding that others not have their feelings, well, it doesn't work.

[70charger]

that wasn't the question.....

 

Look, in general I agree that people deserve chances....but people and the real world aren't rational. Demanding that others not have their feelings, well, it doesn't work.

I’m not demanding anything. I’m pointing out difference between an argument from emotion and an argument from substance. Anyone should feel free to disagree with me, but I think my criticism is warranted.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

And bad arguments are still bad when you preface them with "as a rape victim..." It's still 100% emotion. Congratulations for believing the victim unconditionally, with no concession made for pesky truth or the possibility of reformation. So brave to refuse to think.

 

If you put athletes on a pedestal and idolize them, then that's on you. If you can't separate your personal status from a justice that ought to be impartial, then that's also on you.

 

 

The "pesky truth" is he admitted guilt in a court of law to avoid a trial. So yes, I support the victim unconditionally. 

[gunnarthor]

 

And bad arguments are still bad when you preface them with "as a rape victim..." It's still 100% emotion. Congratulations for believing the victim unconditionally, with no concession made for pesky truth or the possibility of reformation. So brave to refuse to think.

 

If you put athletes on a pedestal and idolize them, then that's on you. If you can't separate your personal status from a justice that ought to be impartial, then that's also on you.

In this instant case, we have a well funded guy with solid lawyers who suggested he plead guilty. We also know that sexual assault crimes are generally not made up. Something happened to the six year old girl.  He says he never did the crime and, yes, innocent people do plead to crimes they didn't commit. But if we're going to say that the knowing guilty plea of an upper class white kid knocks it back down to he said/she said, I think we've gone a bit too far. I think it's fair to take his guilty plea at face value.

 

He almost certainly touched his six year old niece and broke the law in doing so. I'm convinced of that. The other side is where I'm less certain - he went through the rehabilitation process. He isn't likely to commit such a crime again (his crime sounds like the same things Lena Durham wrote about in her book that enraged many). I don't know what a 13 year old kid was thinking when he did those things but I think it wouldn't be what a 23 year old man would have thought. I'm not sure how it'll affect his baseball career but I do think some team will take a chance on him.

[70charger]

 

In this instant case, we have a well funded guy with solid lawyers who suggested he plead guilty. We also know that sexual assault crimes are generally not made up. Something happened to the six year old girl.  He says he never did the crime and, yes, innocent people do plead to crimes they didn't commit. But if we're going to say that the knowing guilty plea of an upper class white kid knocks it back down to he said/she said, I think we've gone a bit too far. I think it's fair to take his guilty plea at face value.

 

He almost certainly touched his six year old niece and broke the law in doing so. I'm convinced of that. The other side is where I'm less certain - he went through the rehabilitation process. He isn't likely to commit such a crime again (his crime sounds like the same things Lena Durham wrote about in her book that enraged many). I don't know what a 13 year old kid was thinking when he did those things but I think it wouldn't be what a 23 year old man would have thought. I'm not sure how it'll affect his baseball career but I do think some team will take a chance on him.

 

Agreed on all counts. My skepticism of the guilty plea process comes from my actually being a lawyer, by the way, but your first paragraph makes perfect sense as applied to the instant case. I likely went too far beyond the particulars of Heimlich's case in expressing my disaffection with the criminal justice system and ended up obscuring the issue at hand.

 

The far more important piece of this is in your second paragraph. Those who think that they're doing the world a service by refusing to believe that people can change, can be rehabilitated, can have radically different thought processes and behavior patterns as between their childhood and adulthood, etc., are incredibly off-base. Being righteously indignant does not make you correct.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The far more important piece of this is in your second paragraph. Those who think that they're doing the world a service by refusing to believe that people can change, can be rehabilitated, can have radically different thought processes and behavior patterns as between their childhood and adulthood, etc., are incredibly off-base. Being righteously indignant does not make you correct.

I find that even more interesting when many people tend to want our justice system move away from incarceration and more into rehabilitation. This debate is the other side to that conversation. I still lean towards giving him a second chance. What I can say is this. He won't be drafted high. He's likely going to have to gut it out in the minors with a low salary and a high chance of not making it. Whether he did it, or plead guilty to avoid trial, his actions have cost him quite a bit.

 

It's an interesting case. I too, see both sides here. That said, I'm not sure why Brenda Tracey's opinion on this matters at all. She likely knows about as much of the situation as we do. The crime she faced was horrific, but that doesn't suddenly make her an expert on who is and is not guilty.

 

My own take probably doesn't differ much here. Facts we know.

• He plead guilty (and this probably the biggest piece).
• He has complied with everything asked of him by the justice system.
• Yes, children can be coached and this stuff can be made up. It's rare though, and probably the biggest case he has in this area is that this was going on during his brother's divorce and his brother's continued silence (which if he spoke could turn that scale either way).
• The justice system does make mistakes, but let's not pretend that our jails populations are predominantly innocent either.  

I think my second point is the one that wins out here. Whether he did it or not, he has done everything required of him. As far as society is concerned, he has done his penance. Playing baseball isn't going to leave him with lots of alone time with young children. It's not as if it's a career doing daycare or elementary education, and he and his future team can certainly agree to protocols that keep him accountable if desired.

 

I think the real consternation here, if I were to put on my amateur psychologist hat, is that people are probably more upset about the idea that this kid could get very rich given the crime he plead guilt to. That, to me at least, is a bit more arbitrary. I can certainly see restricting him from professions that would expose him to young children. That isn't a forgiveness issue, but a trust one. MLB isn't one of those careers though. 

[ashbury]

Playing baseball isn't going to leave him with lots of alone time with young children.

I've held off from weighing in on this topic because, well, I didn't see a lot of good coming from doing so. But I agree with your general take, and especially this particular point. It's difficult to think of a career that removes the likelihood of unsupervised time with young'uns better than one in pro sports.

 

If the justice system has deemed he's made his amends, I'm not in favor of vigilante justice that prolongs the punishment. If the offense was committed at age 13, even more so.

 

The kid had a screw loose in his brain at that time. People grow up, and maybe that malfunction is fixed. I would value a chance to interview him myself, just to form my own opinion about whether there's still a risk, but I'm no expert, and life's too short to interview every offender in the world. So for me the practical approach is to let the system do its job.

 

However, the young man needs to understand a couple of things. First, unlike other players, he will be dealt with harshly and probably summarily if he messes up in any way, not just the offense he got convicted of. Other players might get a second chance - he's already on his.

 

Next, even if he's "cured" or "reformed", his profile seems like a candidate for obsessive-compulsive behaviors, possibly even addictive ones (sexual being only one such manifestation), and he should avail himself of mental health pros for periodic counseling just to be on the safe side. Playing in the minors holds all kinds of temptations.

 

And finally, he should think really seriously about whether he wants to be in the public eye. It's going to be rough. There will be loudmouths at every ballpark his team visits, and perhaps even his own home park, who will think up the most creative and vile ways to get under his skin. I can cook up a ten-letter insult word involving "baby", and I'm not even creative. Wanna hear that one for your entire career? Get ready, kid. Minor league games are such that one guy who finds a seat near the front row can make his opinions known - tough enough when the opinions concern just your baseball skills.

 

After what I've said about second chances, pro ball might not be for him. Has he considered a career selling insurance?

[beckmt]

 

I've held off from weighing in on this topic because, well, I didn't see a lot of good coming from doing so. But I agree with your general take, and especially this particular point. It's difficult to think of a career that removes the likelihood of unsupervised time with young'uns better than one in pro sports.

 

If the justice system has deemed he's made his amends, I'm not in favor of vigilante justice that prolongs the punishment. If the offense was committed at age 13, even more so.

 

The kid had a screw loose in his brain at that time. People grow up, and maybe that malfunction is fixed. I would value a chance to interview him myself, just to form my own opinion about whether there's still a risk, but I'm no expert, and life's too short to interview every offender in the world. So for me the practical approach is to let the system do its job.

 

However, the young man needs to understand a couple of things. First, unlike other players, he will be dealt with harshly and probably summarily if he messes up in any way, not just the offense he got convicted of. Other players might get a second chance - he's already on his.

 

Next, even if he's "cured" or "reformed", his profile seems like a candidate for obsessive-compulsive behaviors, possibly even addictive ones (sexual being only one such manifestation), and he should avail himself of mental health pros for periodic counseling just to be on the safe side. Playing in the minors holds all kinds of temptations.

 

And finally, he should think really seriously about whether he wants to be in the public eye. It's going to be rough. There will be loudmouths at every ballpark his team visits, and perhaps even his own home park, who will think up the most creative and vile ways to get under his skin. I can cook up a ten-letter insult word involving "baby", and I'm not even creative. Wanna hear that one for your entire career? Get ready, kid. Minor league games are such that one guy who finds a seat near the front row can make his opinions known - tough enough when the opinions concern just your baseball skills.

 

After what I've said about second chances, pro ball might not be for him. Has he considered a career selling insurance?

The factors mentioned above is why Jackie Robinson became the first black ballplayer signed.  Because he had a thick skin and did not let things get to him.  Can this kid do it, only time will tell, but he will not get a third chance if he screws up, and I also mean reacting the wrong way to the fans who will heckle him.