2018 Draft stuff

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Depends on how the teams ahead of us want this to play out. We're picking 20 so we certainly will have some prep arms to choose from. And every year someone falls. Last year, Alex Faedo (early season favorite to go in the top 4) fell to 18. The year before we saw Dakota Hudson, who was supposed to go around #15, drop to 34. Jordan Sheffield fell a few spots further. Alec Hanson fell to the third round (I really wished we hadn't passed on him). Walker Buehler fell from a top 5 guy to 24. College pitchers are watched so much that their flaws sometimes get over amplified and the shiny new prep arms just seem more exciting.

 

It's way early but mlbpipeline gave 17 guys a FV grade of 55 or better. So I wouldn't be surprised if a college arm like Rolison, Weathers, Gilbert, Kowar or Mize ended up being there at 20. The Twins also have an extra pick so they can play with their pool a bit. 

 

Yeah, I think my preference at this point would be a prep arm. I know there's more risk there, but there's probably more reward at that layer. A college arm that far down isn't likely going to have ace upside. You might get a really good college bat, which wouldn't be a bad thing for a system that is weak in bats in the high minors, but given the young core, I have to think a prep arm makes sense. At pick 20, there won't likely be a clear BPA, and we will not likely end up with a top 100 player either. 

[biggentleben]

 

AAA has pitching, but other than Gordon, is there a single hitter that is a good prospect? I have no idea, but I can't think of one.

 

Depends on your definition. The Twins have a good collection of guys who should contribute as major leaguers in the upper levels - high floor sort of guys that should work on a major league bench at least like LaMonte Wade, Mitch Garver (technically not officially graduated as a prospect), Zach Granite, Gordon, and one that a lot of people forget about, Max Murphy, one of the better defensive outfielders in the entire farm system. T.J. White and Chris Paul could also be guys who wouldn't be stars, but could be at least solid bench pieces if not decent regulars.

 

While that's not flashy, that's significant to have that many legit major league caliber players in the upper minors. There is a reason many around the game have really stood up to take note of the Twins system depth from top to bottom, not just the high-variance talent in the lower levels, but the guys who are at the upper levels as well.

[biggentleben]

 

Any consenus out there? Strong class/weak/average/too early to tell? Any positions stronger than others. I prefer prep pitching early, especially considering our low A ball lineup is stacked, but it’s all about value.

 

Coming out of summer the thought was that it was an extremely deep pitching class in both high school and college arms. There is also unusual depth in catchers that could impact with both the bat and glove, especially at the high school level. The 2016 draft had a significant amount of depth of quality defensive college receivers, but this could be the draft to use a 2nd on a high school backstop.

[biggentleben]

 

Yeah, I think my preference at this point would be a prep arm. I know there's more risk there, but there's probably more reward at that layer. A college arm that far down isn't likely going to have ace upside. You might get a really good college bat, which wouldn't be a bad thing for a system that is weak in bats in the high minors, but given the young core, I have to think a prep arm makes sense. At pick 20, there won't likely be a clear BPA, and we will not likely end up with a top 100 player either. 

 

That depends. You could see a guy like Steven Gingery be a good 3rd/4th round target. He was a top-50 guy before TJS with very solid stuff from the left side.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know why we would count Garver as a AAA player, or Granite. I already acknowledged I missed Wade. But the others? Are we just going to assume everyone is going to work out now?

[biggentleben]

 

I don't know why we would count Garver as a AAA player, or Granite. I already acknowledged I missed Wade. But the others? Are we just going to assume everyone is going to work out now?

 

No, not at all. That's why the ones mentioned have at least a carrying tool that would allow them to claim a bench role in the major league.

[ashbury]

I admit I fell into the trap further up in the thread, but can we please keep the discussion to the thread topic concerning the June draft, and move discussion of the state of the farm system somewhere else?

[Bob Sacamento]

Well took a few months but I've finally started to putting some of the videos I took at the 2017 WWBA, collection of the top HS talent in the country, together on the same complex.  The first one is of top HS SS Nander de Sedas, the kid is an amazing talent, switch hitting capabilities, strong arm, soft hands, plus range, plus glove; he really reminds me alot of Fransisco Lindor who I saw at the WWBA in 2010.  He's going to be taken in the first round, the question is how high as some have him as high as a Top 5 talent.

 

Nander de Sedas,  S/R , SS,  6'1,   190lbs

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhluCIFPWuY

[howieramone2]

 

I'm not well-versed on college and prep talent, so I can't comment much.  But, wouldn't it be fair to say that the Twins are on the cusp of being a perennial contender for a while, therefore will be picking more quick-to-MLB college players?  Particularly, pitchers?  Of course you always mix it up with a little of everything, but that's my assumption that they would lean this way.

My guess also.

[Bob Sacamento]

#42 on BA Top 200 MLB draft prospects is OF Joe Gray Jr

 

Gray is 6'3 195lb shows off plus tools all around the diamond.  Video I took of Gray at the 2017 WWBA

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0duDdJhO8k

[Mike Sixel]

Eric L posts a decent amount of video on Twitter. And thanks to Bob go doing so here.

[gunnarthor]

 

#42 on BA Top 200 MLB draft prospects is OF Joe Gray Jr

 

Gray is 6'3 195lb shows off plus tools all around the diamond.  Video I took of Gray at the 2017 WWBA

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0duDdJhO8k

Pipeline compares him to Torii Hunter. Good power, strong arm. Raw. He's pretty young, will turn 18 in a few days.

[biggentleben]

 

#42 on BA Top 200 MLB draft prospects is OF Joe Gray Jr

 

Gray is 6'3 195lb shows off plus tools all around the diamond.  Video I took of Gray at the 2017 WWBA

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0duDdJhO8k

 

Gray is a beast! I've been impressed by his raw tools in every viewing I've had of him. Thanks for sharing!!

[biggentleben]

 

Pipeline compares him to Torii Hunter. Good power, strong arm. Raw. He's pretty young, will turn 18 in a few days.

 

That would have made him one of the older first round high schoolers last year. Crazy how many turned 18 within a month of the draft or not until after the draft!

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Pipeline compares him to Torii Hunter. Good power, strong arm. Raw. He's pretty young, will turn 18 in a few days.

 

 

Gray is a beast! I've been impressed by his raw tools in every viewing I've had of him. Thanks for sharing!!

Being at the WWBA for the past 7 years (and really paying attention the last 5yr) I have definitely seen some amazing talent sometimes as early as an 8th grader (Blaze Jordan this year) but usually the talent manifests during the Jr and Sr year.  I was highly intrigued with JoJo in the 2016 WWBA when he was with the  Braves scout team/ East Cobb but at the time he was considered more of a pure burner who ran plus routes while showcasing a plus to plus plus arm in the outfield.  The amount of muscle he put on during the year span was pretty astonishing which has lead to him driving the ball with authority to along with his better than average barrel to ball ratio .

[Vanimal46]

You want to feel really old?

This is going to be the first year we'll see players drafted that were born in the year 2000....

[ashbury]

You want to feel really old?

I'm going to check with Chief and get his take on the pros and cons before deciding.

[gunnarthor]

Fangraphs' guy on some college players who will go in the first two rounds.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-college-draft-prospects/

 

Florida 3B India looks like a guy who could get nabbed at 20.

[diehardtwinsfan]

wouldn't mind Ryan Jeffers. The team is light on catching prospects and getting a decent college catcher should be a priority. 

 

I do hope they nab one or two HS pitchers in the top 10. 

[caninatl04]

wouldn't mind Ryan Jeffers. The team is light on catching prospects and getting a decent college catcher should be a priority. 

 

I do hope they nab one or two HS pitchers in the top 10.

 

Of course I concur that the Twins are in a good position to take Best Player available. IF there is a slight positional bias, I agree with Diehard that catcher has been a perennial position of relative weakness.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Of course I concur that the Twins are in a good position to take Best Player available. IF there is a slight positional bias, I agree with Diehard that catcher has been a perennial position of relative weakness.

With Garver graduated, Rortvedt is probably the only high ceiling catcher in the system right now. I think they'd be wise to focus on it.

 

BPA, while subjective, really doesn't amount to much outside of the first (and maybe second) rounds, so stocking up on pitching and catching that that point would be smart. 

[terrydactyls]

You want to feel really old?

This is going to be the first year we'll see players drafted that were born in the year 2000....

That day happened almost 20 years ago when the Twins drafted Joe Mauer. I played high school hockey with his grandfather's brother. I'm pretty sure my athritis appeared that day also.

[2wins87]

Kiley McDaniel has a bunch of notes on prep prospects projected in the first few rounds:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-draft-prospects/

 

If you are interested in pitchers it sounds like Mason Denaburg could be a buy low candidate around where the Twins pick due to a minor injury, though he could also re-establish himself in the top 10.  Cole Winn could be on the Twins radar and Gunnar Hogland is a helium name to keep an eye on (and his bat could also attract some teams).

[gunnarthor]

 

Kiley McDaniel has a bunch of notes on prep prospects projected in the first few rounds:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-draft-prospects/

 

If you are interested in pitchers it sounds like Mason Denaburg could be a buy low candidate around where the Twins pick due to a minor injury, though he could also re-establish himself in the top 10.  Cole Winn could be on the Twins radar and Gunnar Hogland is a helium name to keep an eye on (and his bat could also attract some teams).

Well, Gunnarthor wants Gunnar Hogland.

 

That said, a guy like Jordyn Adams seems to be the traditional toolsy type OF prospect that the Twins have a lot of history taking and McDaniel mentioned both Buxton and Lewis when describing him.

 

Lastly, in my first post in this thread I thought the Twins might take a prep guy like Denaburg and he certainly seems like he could be there at 20.

[AZTwin]

Was going to post that I think Mike Vasil should go to the Twins.   Googled him real quick and saw he almost had a perfect game the other day.   He may shoot up higher than the Twins pick.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd like that. As I said before, I'm a huge fan of them taking a prep pitcher at 1. If he's there, it would be hard to ignore, especially with mid 90s velo. 

[gunnarthor]

Updated prospect order from fangraphs duo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

 

There are a lot of prep arms in the, say, 10-30 range that will probably get shuffled around a lot depending on price tag and how teams' scouts view them. The draft seems pitching heavy but a guy like Brice Turang, a plus defender at short with a bat that needs work, could also be the type of player the Twins target if they think his bat will come along. 

 

Their rankings go 55 deep and the Twins second pick is #59 so a few of these guys might end up available then, too.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Updated prospect order from fangraphs duo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

 

There are a lot of prep arms in the, say, 10-30 range that will probably get shuffled around a lot depending on price tag and how teams' scouts view them. The draft seems pitching heavy but a guy like Brice Turang, a plus defender at short with a bat that needs work, could also be the type of player the Twins target if they think his bat will come along. 

 

Their rankings go 55 deep and the Twins second pick is #59 so a few of these guys might end up available then, too.

I feel pretty good, seen 19 of their Top 55 in person within the last year and most the HS within the last 6 months, and quite a few that fell off the list from earlier.

[biggentleben]

 

I feel pretty good, seen 19 of their Top 55 in person within the last year and most the HS within the last 6 months, and quite a few that fell off the list from earlier.

 

Your YouTube is going to be a very good source for my mock drafts (first one comes out Monday, just saying...)

[gunnarthor]

mlbpipeline has updated their top 100 for the draft.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=draft

 

They also have an article about the draft. Generally, it's a depth draft (which is good for us) and heavy on high school players, particularly arms. "It's a high school dominant Draft," one National League scouting director said. "There are some good college players at the top of the Draft, though maybe not the star potential of some of the Drafts of the past."