Article: Is This Front Office Truly Enlightened About Pitching?

[beckmt]

Chief said deeper too, no? Also if the added depth isn't "better", what good is it to be deeper?

 

Gonsalves and Romero were already available last year, the Twins just chose not to use them. Maybe they will be more ready later this season, but their presence isn't much of a credit to the current front office.

 

And It's not altogether clear that Sanchez is going to be a better option than those other guys.  Last 3 seasons by bWAR: 0.1, -1.2, -0.8.  And we may not have the luxury of keeping him in reserve as a midseason reinforcement, or for a spot start -- his contract apparently calls for us to put him on the opening day roster or release him.

You seemed to have missed my point. The bottom end pitchers we use this year are likely to be Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Littel etc. That could be light years better than Colon, Turley,Tepesch .

[Mr. Brooks]

You seemed to have missed my point. The bottom end pitchers we use this year are likely to be Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Littel etc. That could be light years better than Colon, Turkey,Tepesch .

They could also be just as bad. Rookie pitchers often struggle. Look at Berrios and May's rookie seasons.

[prouster]

Signing an ace would push our current 1-5 starters down to 2-6. That's probably a better way to improve depth than acquiring more 4-5-6 types.

 

You make it sound like the Twins could only have one ~4 WAR pitcher. Having Berrios add 1-2 WAR would be nice, but so would adding Darvish's ~4 WAR over, say, Hughes/Sanchez -- without costing any prospect capital, and not making us overly reliant on the vagaries of the trade market (and helping us from day 1 of the season rather than day 1 after the trade deadline too).

Darvish would have been great. He probably would have enabled them to compete for the division. But, he's not in the cards anymore. My point is that there is reason to believe the current rotation has some upside. Heck, if Hughes is actually healthy, maybe he'll contribute something. They shouldn't rely on such a sunny outcome, because it's not likely. If they need to add another 4 WAR pitcher, however, they have the pieces to trade for one.

 

Edit: I don't think they'll get Archer before opening day, but he could definitely be a possibility at the deadline. We know they've already discussed him with Tampa. It could be a matter of assessing what they've got and circling back before making that trade. I think a deadline deal could be comparable to what they'd pay now, given the mix of deadline premium and less team control. We'll see, I guess.

Edited February 19, 2018 by prouster

[Mike Sixel]

They don't seem inclined to deal prospects, though. They've been quoted saying as much.

[Twins33]

Well Odorizzi was worth 0.1 fWAR last year, so he's not going to give you that many wins over the -0.3 fWAR that you cited.

True, but I don't see him being as bad as last year. I have no idea why. Nothing to base it on obviously, but if he even hits those projected stats he's better than Colon, Santiago and the 10-12 or however many others that they had last year. The Twins were awful beyond Berrios and Santana and managed to win 85 games. With that rotation and bullpen I expected another 90 loss season. Was it just all luck to win 13 more games than that? If it was, then the Twins will be lucky they win even 80 this year.

 

 

the obvious question: have Falvine done much of anything to improve spots 5-16?

It requires a leap of faith to conclude they have.

Have they done much by grabbing more number fives and on? I'd say no because they've only added Sanchez for that and they've added Odorizzi who will slot in higher than five. Whether his production is more than a five, we will see. Hughes and May too could be added to the number five, but health isn't in the FO control and right now I expect zero contribution especially from Hughes.

 

Again, I wanted Darvish and Archer (who I didn't mention before). I'm not jumping up and down for Odo and Sanchez, but I at least understand Odo will probably be an improvement over Santiago and Colon unless he goes in the wrong direction even more.

 

On paper I'd much rather have Mejia, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Littell as the five spot depth over Santiago/Colon (whatever one you want to count, Turley, Slegers, Jorge, Tepesch. The 2018 guys aren't guaranteed to be better on the field, but I like them better on paper.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You seemed to have missed my point. The bottom end pitchers we use this year are likely to be Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Littel etc. That could be light years better than Colon, Turkey,Tepesch .

Colon was actually replacement level for us -- I wouldn't be so confident that Slegers and a bunch of AA guys in their MLB debuts could notably exceed that. Not to mention Duffey and return-from-surgery May.

 

And you had Sanchez in your list the first time, and removed him this time. Assuming he is 6 or 7 in our current depth chart, you might be talking about ~15 starts from those "bottom end pitchers" below him -- how much overall staff improvement can we project from that?  I'd rather have upgraded ~60 of the regular rotation starts.

Edited February 19, 2018 by spycake

[prouster]

They don't seem inclined to deal prospects, though. They've been quoted saying as much.

That could just be their position right now. Things change.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I see both of these moves as good moves in a vacuum; the question is what they mean in the context of this offseason. I agree with Nick's premise--this is a good test of Falvine's pitching evaluation.

 

Sanchez is an extremely low-risk signing. The question will be what they do with him. If they cut him during spring training or he makes the rotation and pitches like a major league pitcher, it's a good move. It's only if they mis-evaluate him and give him a roster spot he doesn't deserve that this one haunts us.

 

There's no question Odorizzi is worth more to this organization than Palacios. In many ways, this trade reminds me of the Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade. As a trade, it's a good one. As a Twins fan, I'm underwhelmed that this is how the front office has chosen to fill a glaring hole. Overall, I'm trusting their evaluators to see something real there and find value if this is their solution.

 

The Hicks deal obviously didn't work out. The Odorizzi deal makes me nervous in that the Rays are known for their pitching savvy, too. But I'm willing to see what comes of it.

[Mike Sixel]

I see both of these moves as good moves in a vacuum; the question is what they mean in the context of this offseason. I agree with Nick's premise--this is a good test of Falvine's pitching evaluation.

 

Sanchez is an extremely low-risk signing. The question will be what they do with him. If they cut him during spring training or he makes the rotation and pitches like a major league pitcher, it's a good move. It's only if they mis-evaluate him and give him a roster spot he doesn't deserve that this one haunts us.

 

There's no question Odorizzi is worth more to this organization than Palacios. In many ways, this trade reminds me of the Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade. As a trade, it's a good one. As a Twins fan, I'm underwhelmed that this is how the front office has chosen to fill a glaring hole. Overall, I'm trusting their evaluators to see something real there and find value if this is their solution.

 

The Hicks deal obviously didn't work out. The Odorizzi deal makes me nervous in that the Rays are known for their pitching savvy, too. But I'm willing to see what comes of it.

Great post!

[Jham]

Cobb is available to sign, but we were instead interested in trading for 2 other Rays pitchers. We sign Kalk to run numbers. And in the end we choose Hodor. Could be nothing. Could be significant.

 

Also, I believe Sanchez only helps our depth of he makes the team. Less than 50%in my mind. K not guaranteed, and signed prior to the Hodor trade.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Jham

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also, I believe Sanchez only helps our depth of he makes the team. Less than 50%in my mind. K not guaranteed, and signed prior to the Hodor trade.

It's tricky, because Sanchez is guaranteed roughly ~$500k. His signing was so close to the Odorizzi trade, that I don't think the two pitchers are seen as mutually exclusive.

 

Even if Sanchez gets cut before opening day and doesn't get the extra $2 mil, he's probably going to consume a fair number of spring training innings which may make it a little harder to sort the depth guys behind him. (And if he makes the team, he's not really "depth" like a pitcher in reserve -- he's actually a front-line guy.)

[USAFChief]

I see both of these moves as good moves in a vacuum; the question is what they mean in the context of this offseason. I agree with Nick's premise--this is a good test of Falvine's pitching evaluation.

 

Sanchez is an extremely low-risk signing. The question will be what they do with him. If they cut him during spring training or he makes the rotation and pitches like a major league pitcher, it's a good move. It's only if they mis-evaluate him and give him a roster spot he doesn't deserve that this one haunts us.

 

There's no question Odorizzi is worth more to this organization than Palacios. In many ways, this trade reminds me of the Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade. As a trade, it's a good one. As a Twins fan, I'm underwhelmed that this is how the front office has chosen to fill a glaring hole. Overall, I'm trusting their evaluators to see something real there and find value if this is their solution.

 

The Hicks deal obviously didn't work out. The Odorizzi deal makes me nervous in that the Rays are known for their pitching savvy, too. But I'm willing to see what comes of it.

Nit pic: the Hicks-Murphy trade was awful from day one. Awful, from any perspective.

 

Nothing like this, IMO. I agree Odorizzi is worth much more to the Twins than Palacios.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Interesting. The pitch is described as a splitter almost everywhere I've read -- MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Detroit's local newspaper... 

 

Yeah, again, it's a common mistake because of the movement, but there's no grip evidence that he throws a splitter (unlike Odorizzi). And part of the reason I brought it up in the comments section was because I noticed Rhett and Aaron's articles citing that as such.

 

As a background: MLB's pitchfx data uploads into a raw format without any cleaning and labels a lot of his pitches as a splitter based on algorithms on those movement metrics (which is why BaseballSavant.com's data has him throwing a splitter instead of a changeup). I would guess Rhett Bollinger simply looked there for information (or maybe some other MLB database) which carries the raw pitch data. When the Twins first signed him I initially went there and assumed he threw a split-change.

 

Places like BrooksBaseball.com (and Baseball Prospectus) employ methods to clean it up to ensure pitches are categorized accurately. Those guys actually go through images and get confirmation on what type of pitch each pitcher has before categorizing them. It's the nerdiest of baseball data nerd stuff. 

 

 

 

So when you look at Fangraphs' "Pitch Info Pitch Type" section under a player's page, that's the data that has been scrubbed. Pitch Info is the group that runs Brooks Baseball. Under the generic Pitch Type section for Sanchez and Odorizzi, it has both pitchers throwing Changeups and no Splitters. However, snce Pitch Info knows Odorizzi throws his with a split grip, they have moved those pitches to the Split Fastball category.

 

It's splitting hairs at this point (pun intending) because if you get the same movement regardless of the grip, should the pitch be categorized by the movement or the grip? 

 

 

[frightwig]

 

 If the Twins could win 85 with that bad of production for 100+ innings, adding in Odo should be an easy upgrade and help a team win more than 85.

 

The Twins had a 81-81 BaseRuns record last year; I would use that as a baseline. And keep in mind that Dozier probably isn't going to be a 5-win player again, Santana almost certainly would be bound to regress even if he didn't have to miss a month+ recovering from finger surgery, and Sano probably is going to serve a long suspension, too. I know that a lot of fans are counting on big improvements from the young players to offset problems like those, but the projection models aren't anticipating that, either.

 

If the Twins are going to get back to the WC game, they'll need a lot of nice surprises--Odorizzi solving his HR problem, a good year from Gibson and/or Hughes, a couple of youngsters becoming All-Stars, another big year from Dozier, a sustained Mauer comeback, and some nice cluster-luck. Otherwise it's probably a .500-ish team.

Edited February 19, 2018 by frightwig

[Twins33]

The Twins had a 81-81 BaseRuns record last year; I would use that as a baseline. And keep in mind that Dozier probably isn't going to be a 5-win player again, Santana almost certainly would be bound to regress even if he didn't have to miss a month+ recovering from finger surgery, and Sano probably is going to serve a long suspension, too. I know that a lot of fans are counting on big improvements from the young players to offset problems like those, but the projection models aren't anticipating that, either.

 

If the Twins are going to get back to the WC game, they'll need a lot of nice surprises--Odorizzi solving his HR problem, a good year from Gibson and/or Hughes, a couple of youngsters becoming All-Stars, another big year from Dozier, a sustained Mauer comeback, and some nice cluster-luck. Otherwise it's probably a .500-ish team.

I didn't think the Twins were going to make the WC if they did nothing. I wasn't even sure adding Darvish would do it, though I still wanted him. I think it's going to take 90 wins to get a WC. That may be slightly high, but I think it would be smart for all contending teams to think that way. The Twins have always needed two pitchers. Odo helps, but nowhere near as much as a Darvish or Archer. I would have been shocked if they added either.

 

What I know is the Twins won 85 with a rotation of Berrios and Santana, and a bullpen of Rogers, Kintzler and Hildenberger. Even if that team only won 80 wins...that's a freaking miracle. Add better players to that and they should get right back to it again, unless they were more like 15 wins lucky rather than five. I do expect Kepler and Buxton to improve and pick up the slack that others lose. I expect Odorizzi to be another Gibson and while that sounds awful, it is actually a big upgrade on a good chunk of other players.

 

There is no reason why this team shouldn't be a mid-80s win team again, unless last year was a fluke. I obviously do want more wins then that and a better team than that and better players than they added, but this is what we've got. I think the bullpen is better and I think the rotation is better. It's not Darvish and Archer better, but it's better...at least in my eyes. Like I said, I'm not jumping for joy at these moves. The only move I truly loved was Reed, but I see an improvement on paper even if it isn't as big of one as I'd have liked.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Twins33

[yarnivek1972]

It’s interesting that they both employ the splitter. As I recall, it was a pitch the Terry Ryan regime actively discouraged prospects from throwing (claiming it was more likely to lead to injury). Personally, I always thought the Twins discouraged prospects from throwing it because it led to strikeouts which tends to lead to bigger paydays.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Is This Front Office Truly Enlightened About Pitching?

 

Based on the evidence we have:

 

2016 Twins' pitching: 5.08 ERA, 1.453 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3 BB/9 
2017 Twins' pitching: 4.59 ERA, 1.372 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3 BB/9

 

The new FO, with pretty much the same pitchers and the same raw numbers (K/9, BB/9) was able to chip half a run and about a hit per game.  And that with the old pitching coach who, based on the fact that was fired, I suspect was not on board with their methods.  

 

If they strip another half a run and another hit a game this season, that will put the Twins at 4.09 team ERA and 1.272 team WHIP.  In 2017 those numbers would have been 5th in the AL, just ahead of the Astros', last season.

 

So far so good, what they are doing is working and I hope that it continues to work.

 

Might not be enlightened enough to make people who do not want to come to Minnesota, like Otani and Darvish, to do so, but even Dalai Lama cannot do that...

Edited February 19, 2018 by Thrylos

[BJames]

Let's hope the Relief pitching can add in some wins as well.  I've got to believe the 13 pitchers on the opening day roster will be a Big improvement from 2017.

[clone52]

 

Well, if he was "fixed" then why did Tampa Bay trade him for a single good but not great prospect?

 

Money.  Tampa is trying to cut as much money as possible from their payroll.  Heck, the released a guy who was an All-star last year and there were rumors that they might have released Odorizzi as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Money. Tampa is trying to cut as much money as possible from their payroll. Heck, the released a guy who was an All-star last year and there were rumors that they might have released Odorizzi as well.

Then why didn't someone else offer more?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Money. Tampa is trying to cut as much money as possible from their payroll. Heck, the released a guy who was an All-star last year and there were rumors that they might have released Odorizzi as well.

FYI, they didn't release Dickerson, they DFA'd him. Most likely to force a trade.

[Nick Nelson]

 

It's splitting hairs at this point (pun intending) because if you get the same movement regardless of the grip, should the pitch be categorized by the movement or the grip? 

 

That was kind of what I was pondering after your first comment. Thanks for all the detail and images, good stuff.

 

Btw, all this talk about splitter/changeups had me thinking back to Jared Burton and all the buzz around his "splangeup." Back then it was considered kind of a unique pitch. Now, not so much? Seemingly the hybrid has grown more common. 

[The Wise One]

one can be enlightened about pitching and also have bad results with your staff choices.  An enlightened evaluator can like a pitcher and be right that the pitcher is good for any reason but why that person  said the pitcher would be,    There may be fine tuning needed of Odorizzi and his chronically high fastball. Sanchez had poor catchers in Detroit along with poor fielders in Detroit. It is hard to get GB out like he used to when the batter lays off the pitch, elevates and celebrates, or the fielder just does not move well enough to catch the ball.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Based on the evidence we have:

 

2016 Twins' pitching: 5.08 ERA, 1.453 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3 BB/9

2017 Twins' pitching: 4.59 ERA, 1.372 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3 BB/9

 

The new FO, with pretty much the same pitchers and the same raw numbers (K/9, BB/9) was able to chip half a run and about a hit per game. And that with the old pitching coach who, based on the fact that was fired, I suspect was not on board with their methods.

 

If they strip another half a run and another hit a game this season, that will put the Twins at 4.09 team ERA and 1.272 team WHIP. In 2017 those numbers would have been 5th in the AL, just ahead of the Astros', last season.

 

So far so good, what they are doing is working and I hope that it continues to work.

 

Might not be enlightened enough to make people who do not want to come to Minnesota, like Otani and Darvish, to do so, but even Dalai Lama cannot do that...

Hasn't it already been shown a few times on this board that the ERA improvement in 2017 (and then some) were the result of improved defense, not better pitching, and that adjusting for defense, the pitching was actually worse in 2017?

[Thrylos]

 

Hasn't it already been shown a few times on this board that the ERA improvement in 2017 (and then some) were the result of improved defense, not better pitching, and that adjusting for defense, the pitching was actually worse in 2017?

 

One way of improving pitching is that.  Better defense.  This Front Office decided that Sano is not an outfielder and improved in the catcher position.  That went long ways.  Also better intelligence about how to place defenders based on individual pitchers.  That went another long ways.

 

Really excited to see what a new pitching coach will bring to the team.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess by that logic, we are looking at over 105 wins, over 110? That's the trend.

[rdehring]

The front office will be real enlightened should the guys that take the mound improve from their performances of last year.  Will Berrios take that next step and be close to becoming a real ACE?  Will Santana return close to what he was last year?  Will Hughes be healthy, in which case he could be the pitcher he was in 2014...after all it is an even year?  Were Odorizzi's problems last year all injury related?  Can Mejia take another step in his second season?  And will Gibson finally be the pitcher he was in August/September?  

 

There is a good chance some, or even most, of those questions will have positive answers.  That being the case, I am going out on a limb and picking Phil Hughes for opening day.  He will be followed by Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson and the winner of the battle between Mejia and Sanchez.  Should Sanchez lose that battle, I expect he will be either released or traded if he has a decent spring.  

 

If there aren't any injuries by the time Santana returns, Mejia is the logical candidate to go down to Rochester.

[clone52]

 

Then why didn't someone else offer more?

 

Maybe Tampa like Palacios.  Maybe other teams though they would DFA him and get him for even less.

[KrnlDoug]

It is clear that the leadership sees something that we do not. This is a quote from Falvey an ESPN article that was posted yesterday (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22505175/jake-odorizzi-welcomes-trade-minnesota-twins-tampa-bay-rays-cut-costs))

 

"This guy has upside," chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said. "I think he's kind of one of those guys who's sneaky, ends up in the top of your rotation, and it might not be the big velocity or otherwise, but the way he pitches and the way he manages contact, guys don't square it up often."

 

I just hope that he isn't setting himself, or the fans for that matter, up for disappointment. 

[wabene]

The front office will be real enlightened should the guys that take the mound improve from their performances of last year.  Will Berrios take that next step and be close to becoming a real ACE?  Will Santana return close to what he was last year?  Will Hughes be healthy, in which case he could be the pitcher he was in 2014...after all it is an even year?  Were Odorizzi's problems last year all injury related?  Can Mejia take another step in his second season?  And will Gibson finally be the pitcher he was in August/September?  

 

There is a good chance some, or even most, of those questions will have positive answers.  That being the case, I am going out on a limb and picking Phil Hughes for opening day.  He will be followed by Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson and the winner of the battle between Mejia and Sanchez.  Should Sanchez lose that battle, I expect he will be either released or traded if he has a decent spring.  

 

If there aren't any injuries by the time Santana returns, Mejia is the logical candidate to go down to Rochester.

Lots of optimism here a very spring like post! Hughes the pick to click! I am liking the overall depth and less chance of some of the the guys they through out there to start last year. That was hard take.