Article: Is This Front Office Truly Enlightened About Pitching?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The bullpen and the rotation is better than last year. The front office does not like the prices on ace pitchers and we are not one player away. If we stay in the playoff race they may be willing to pay the price at the trade deadline. I like what they have done so far and they are still in position to do more.

the opening day rotation has not improved; Odorizzi is not better than Santana. Odorizzi has the opportunity to be better than Santiago and clearly the 6th through 10th starters in the rotation are much improved over Dillon Gee, et. al. It depends on how Santana and Berrios pitch, if Berrios continues to improve and Erv doesn’t regress and recovers well from surgery the rotation has improved.

 

Getting another impact start like Lynn or Arrieta (higher risk, much higher reward) could really push the rotation up a notch

[Mr. Brooks]

i agree that those numbers are bad and we'd want and need better than that, but we also have to remember what those numbers would be replacing a big chunk of:

 

https://twitter.com/danhayesmlb/status/965348219105538048

 

Other WC teams did get better and the Twins do need a number one or two still, but replace those stats from last year with Odorizzi putting up 165 innings of your stats and you've got a big improvement or an improvement at least if the word "big" is too strong.

 

Obviously I want more/better, I was on the sign Darvish train, but this "should" help us not have to rely on the Tepesch and Turley's of the world (I know they are no longer Twins). If the Twins could win 85 with that bad of production for 100+ innings, adding in Odo should be an easy upgrade and help a team win more than 85. That still might not be enough to beat the WC teams though and I acknowledge that. Again, I wanted Darvish.

Well Odorizzi was worth 0.1 fWAR last year, so he's not going to give you that many wins over the -0.3 fWAR that you cited.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think it's obvious that ownership capped payroll at around $115 million, basically making a major free agent signing impossible. There are only 2 significant questions that I think can be asked as relates to the Twins' off-season strategy:

 

1) Should the Twins have given up a huge prospect haul for Archer?

 

2) Should the Twins have signed Cobb or Lynn instead of acquiring Rodney, Reed, and Odorizzi?

 

I don't think a low-payroll team like the Twins could realistically choose option (1), because they will need their prospects to have any hope of competing in the future. The more interesting question is option (2), which would have produced a more reliable mid-rotation option than Odorizzi albeit without being able to improve the bullpen.

They also could have traded for Gerritt Cole.

[Doctor Wu]

I keep hoping the "Falvine" brain-trust knows what it's doing, or at least has some sort of rational plan for getting the Twins to the next stage of the playoffs. Perhaps the most puzzling move so far this off-season was choosing Tyler Kinley in the Rule 5 draft. Will be waiting to see if that pickup amounts to anything remotely impressive.

[lukeduke1980]

 

I agree. Sign Lynn. He'll be expensive but signing him would make this team a division contender. A rotation of Santana, Lynn, Berrios, Odorizzi and Gibson / one of the many 5th rotation options is a strong starting five.

(Go the distance)

[Nick Nelson]

 

Just a point of clarification: Sanchez does not throw a splitter or a split change. He has a circle grip that moves more similarly to a splitter movement -- which is probably why Fangraphs has it quantified as such.

Interesting. The pitch is described as a splitter almost everywhere I've read -- MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Detroit's local newspaper... 

[drivlikejehu]

 

They also could have traded for Gerritt Cole.

 

Right, but that's pretty close to the Archer scenario in terms of requiring significant prospects. 

[Linus]

Falvine haven’t proven a thing in the area of pitching. Their two obvious attempts last year were Haley and Breslow. Both were flops and they compounded their error by hanging on to both far too long

[USAFChief]

i agree that those numbers are bad and we'd want and need better than that, but we also have to remember what those numbers would be replacing a big chunk of:

 

https://twitter.com/danhayesmlb/status/965348219105538048

 

Other WC teams did get better and the Twins do need a number one or two still, but replace those stats from last year with Odorizzi putting up 165 innings of your stats and you've got a big improvement or an improvement at least if the word "big" is too strong.

 

Obviously I want more/better, I was on the sign Darvish train, but this "should" help us not have to rely on the Tepesch and Turley's of the world (I know they are no longer Twins). If the Twins could win 85 with that bad of production for 100+ innings, adding in Odo should be an easy upgrade and help a team win more than 85. That still might not be enough to beat the WC teams though and I acknowledge that. Again, I wanted Darvish.

the obvious question: have Falvine done much of anything to improve spots 5-16?

 

It requires a leap of faith to conclude they have.

[USAFChief]

Right, but that's pretty close to the Archer scenario in terms of requiring significant prospects.

he went to Houston fairly cheaply.

[beckmt]

 

the obvious question: have Falvine done much of anything to improve spots 5-16?

It requires a leap of faith to conclude they have.

The Twins are much deeper in starting pitching than in any of the last 20 years.  This year may be a revolving door as the opening to the future.  I also feel this FO will move the good minor league pitchers in the lower levels much faster than the old FO did (At least I hope).  That would have us with a homegrown rotation by 2021 at the latest.  

[TFRazor]

 

They also could have traded for Gerritt Cole.

Don't get me wrong, I like Gerrit Cole, not sure he's all that much better than Odorizzi though. Just taking a quick look at the stats and a lot of stuff seems pretty close. Their FIPs are a bit apart but the problem there is Cole regularly under-performs his while Odorizzi regularly over-performs. Take in to account what was paid in prospects and and contract, seem pretty close.

 

Sources:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/65957/gerrit-cole

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/58507/jake-odorizzi

[USAFChief]

The Twins are much deeper in starting pitching than in any of the last 20 years. This year may be a revolving door as the opening to the future. I also feel this FO will move the good minor league pitchers in the lower levels much faster than the old FO did (At least I hope). That would have us with a homegrown rotation by 2021 at the latest.

I don't see how adding Odorizzi/Sanchez suddenly makes us deep in pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

the obvious question: have Falvine done much of anything to improve spots 5-16?

It requires a leap of faith to conclude they have.

That's fair.  Here's a comparison of where we stood on opening day 2017 vs 2018, where I've tried to roughly average bWAR and fWAR.

 

Entering 2017:

Santana coming off a 3-4 WAR season

Santiago coming off a ~1 WAR season

Gibson coming off a ~1 WAR season

Hughes coming off surgery

Mejia with 1 MLB game

Duffey coming off a ~0 WAR season

Berrios with 14 MLB games

Jorge with zero MLB games

Slegers with zero MLB games

Gonsalves with zero MLB games

Romero with zero MLB games

 

Entering 2018:

Santana coming off a 3-4 WAR season but scheduled to miss at least the first month

Odorizzi coming off a ~0 WAR season

Gibson coming off a ~0 WAR season

Hughes coming off another surgery

Mejia coming off a ~1 WAR season

Duffey hasn't started a game in over a year

Berrios coming off a ~2 WAR season

Sanchez coming off a ~0 WAR season

May coming off surgery, hasn't started a game in over 2 years

Slegers with 3 MLB games

Jorge with 2 MLB games

Gonsalves with zero MLB games

Romero with zero MLB games

 

I'd pick the 2018 group, but its primary improvement is Berrios. Still quite a bit of risk, and not a ton of upside -- I guess Odorizzi is a year removed from a ~3 WAR season, but lest we forget, so was Gibson entering 2017.

[Mike Sixel]

Doesn't look a lot better.... Let's not forget Santana isn't getting younger, at some point he will get worse.

 

There is hope, but almost none of it has been added by this front office, unless you like Odorizzi

[beckmt]

 

I don't see how adding Odorizzi/Sanchez suddenly makes us deep in pitching.

I said deeper which you have seemed to confuse with better.  Gonsalves, Romero, and Sanchaz are probably going to be better than Tepsesh, Turley, Wick and the others the Twins have run out there lately.

[nicksaviking]

Doesn't matter who their choices were, this is what they accomplished so far.... Usually you judge people on actions, not what they wanted to do, but didn't

Right, but I was refuting that the current moves have anything to do with judging their "enlightenment". I'd think failure to get better pitchers more likely stems from tentativeness, frugality, an unfavorable destination for free agents or other reasons. I don't know that it has much to do with enlightenment:

[Mike Sixel]

Right, but I was refuting that the current moves have anything to do with judging their "enlightenment". I'd think failure to get better pitchers more likely stems from tentativeness, frugality, an unfavorable destination for free agents or other reasons. I don't know that it has much to do with enlightenment:

Got it. I guess I don't care if they are enlightened, or whatever. I care if the make the team better, or worse.

[ND-Fan]

If the market comes back on in next few days for remaining free agents like I think could happen. I could see the Twins signing Cobb for a three year contract at 36 to 39 million dollar mark with more incentives added to the contract to get the deal done. This would put the Twins pitching rotation in position to compete for the whole season with likely rotation Santana, Berrios,Odorizzi, Cobb, Gibson, and then you would have Hughes if healthy, Duffy, Mejia, and May to fill if anybody hurt or not performing. Also this this still leaves the two in minor leagues also available. It also may mean they don't add Cobb may wait until trade deadline to add a pitcher to see how the season goes. I soon would think they are going to turn their attention to resigning some players and extending some of their young talent. I guessing they are behind on this because of the slow off season in acquiring talent.

[Mike Sixel]

Imo, it is a pipe dream that Berrios signs an extension. It is getting rare for elite talents to do so.

 

As for pitching, waiting for the deadline is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.... They aren't likely to be really good, and need more pitching....

[prouster]

 

the obvious question: have Falvine done much of anything to improve spots 5-16?

It requires a leap of faith to conclude they have.

 

I thought they should have signed an ace? Now they should have signed a bunch of minor league depth?

 

As some other posters have said, the plan may largely be to let progression candidates actually progress. We get ourselves tied up over acquiring a #1 or 2 starter (whatever that means), but maybe the plan is for Berrios to take a step forward. It's not unreasonable to think he's capable of producing 4-5 fWAR. He produced about 3 fWAR last year as a fairly raw 23 year old. Steamer has him projected at 2.0 fWAR, which of course includes his terrible 2016 season. Fangraphs readers project him for 4.3 fWAR. For comparison, Steamer projects 3.9 fWAR for Darvish, and Fangraphs readers project 3.7. It's possible Berrios could deliver a very similar performance for about $19.5 million fewer.

 

Let's see how it plays out. If Berrios realizes his potential, then they already have the ace we're clamoring for. The addition of Odorizzi would then bolster the middle of the rotation, and the back end could be filled by guys returning from injury and/or promising rookies. If things don't go as planned, they have plenty of prospect capital to acquire someone during the season.

[prouster]

 

Imo, it is a pipe dream that Berrios signs an extension. It is getting rare for elite talents to do so.
 

 

That could very well be, but free agency has been a nightmare even for some quality players. Some guys might rather have the security of an early extension.

[Mike Sixel]

That could very well be, but free agency has been a nightmare even for some quality players. Some guys might rather have the security of an early extension.

Ooops. Meant to type Buxton!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I thought they should have signed an ace? Now they should have signed a bunch of minor league depth?

 

As some other posters have said, the plan may largely be to let progression candidates actually progress. We get ourselves tied up over acquiring a #1 or 2 starter (whatever that means), but maybe the plan is for Berrios to take a step forward. It's not unreasonable to think he's capable of producing 4-5 fWAR. He produced about 3 fWAR last year as a fairly raw 23 year old. Steamer has him projected at 2.0 fWAR, which of course includes his terrible 2016 season. Fangraphs readers project him for 4.3 fWAR. For comparison, Steamer projects 3.9 fWAR for Darvish, and Fangraphs readers project 3.7. It's possible Berrios could deliver a very similar performance for about $19.5 million fewer.

 

Let's see how it plays out. If Berrios realizes his potential, then they already have the ace we're clamoring for. The addition of Odorizzi would then bolster the middle of the rotation, and the back end could be filled by guys returning from injury and/or promising rookies. If things don't go as planned, they have plenty of prospect capital to acquire someone during the season.

Signing an ace would push our current 1-5 starters down to 2-6. That's probably a better way to improve depth than acquiring more 4-5-6 types.

 

You make it sound like the Twins could only have one ~4 WAR pitcher.  Having Berrios add 1-2 WAR would be nice, but so would adding Darvish's ~4 WAR over, say, Hughes/Sanchez -- without costing any prospect capital, and not making us overly reliant on the vagaries of the trade market (and helping us from day 1 of the season rather than day 1 after the trade deadline too).

Edited February 19, 2018 by spycake

[KirbyDome89]

 

As for pitching, waiting for the deadline is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.... They aren't likely to be really good, and need more pitching....

Not only that, but even if they make it to the midway point within reach of contention, the primary focus of the FO seems to be finding great "value." That's going to be tough to come by if they're buying at the deadline, especially if the player is a rental. They weren't willing to make any big moves this offseason, I'm not sure why there is any faith in them acquiring a front end starter at the deadline. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I thought they should have signed an ace? Now they should have signed a bunch of minor league depth?

 

As some other posters have said, the plan may largely be to let progression candidates actually progress. We get ourselves tied up over acquiring a #1 or 2 starter (whatever that means), but maybe the plan is for Berrios to take a step forward. It's not unreasonable to think he's capable of producing 4-5 fWAR. He produced about 3 fWAR last year as a fairly raw 23 year old. Steamer has him projected at 2.0 fWAR, which of course includes his terrible 2016 season. Fangraphs readers project him for 4.3 fWAR. For comparison, Steamer projects 3.9 fWAR for Darvish, and Fangraphs readers project 3.7. It's possible Berrios could deliver a very similar performance for about $19.5 million fewer.

 

Let's see how it plays out. If Berrios realizes his potential, then they already have the ace we're clamoring for. The addition of Odorizzi would then bolster the middle of the rotation, and the back end could be filled by guys returning from injury and/or promising rookies. If things don't go as planned, they have plenty of prospect capital to acquire someone during the season.

I like and share your optimism on Berrios, but even with Odorizzi the rotation is still looking at too many #5 types getting too many starts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I said deeper which you have seemed to confuse with better.  Gonsalves, Romero, and Sanchaz are probably going to be better than Tepsesh, Turley, Wick and the others the Twins have run out there lately.

Chief said deeper too, no? Also if the added depth isn't "better", what good is it to be deeper?

 

Gonsalves and Romero were already available last year, the Twins just chose not to use them. Maybe they will be more ready later this season, but their presence isn't much of a credit to the current front office.

 

And It's not altogether clear that Sanchez is going to be a better option than those other guys.  Last 3 seasons by bWAR: 0.1, -1.2, -0.8.  And we may not have the luxury of keeping him in reserve as a midseason reinforcement, or for a spot start -- his contract apparently calls for us to put him on the opening day roster or release him.

[Mr. Brooks]

Right, but that's pretty close to the Archer scenario in terms of requiring significant prospects.

That's still their choice though.

They chose not to pay the required trade package, they deserve to be judged on their choices on the roster.

[Mr. Brooks]

Don't get me wrong, I like Gerrit Cole, not sure he's all that much better than Odorizzi though. Just taking a quick look at the stats and a lot of stuff seems pretty close. Their FIPs are a bit apart but the problem there is Cole regularly under-performs his while Odorizzi regularly over-performs. Take in to account what was paid in prospects and and contract, seem pretty close.

 

Sources:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/65957/gerrit-cole

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/58507/jake-odorizzi

Gerritt Cole is a much better pitcher than Jake Odorizzi, which is why he cost more to acquire in a trade.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins are much deeper in starting pitching than in any of the last 20 years. This year may be a revolving door as the opening to the future. I also feel this FO will move the good minor league pitchers in the lower levels much faster than the old FO did (At least I hope). That would have us with a homegrown rotation by 2021 at the latest.

So right around the time most of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco are leaving in free agency?