Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[Mike Sixel]

Should think about a 2-3 years extension with a buyout clause.

Not sure if serious.

[Otwins]

Hopefully we learned something by doing Hughes extension too early

[twinssouth]

I like the trade, good job Falvey/Levine

[David HK]

I concur with this deal.

 

Wow- got a good, dependable starter for only 1 prospect- well played, Falvine.

[gocgo]

Sweet mother of all that is good.

[Loosey]

I was originally ok with the trade. I thought Odorizzi was nice piece to complement the rest of rotation. But after reading the most recent Athletic article I look at this trade in a different light. The Twins #5 starters last year combine to have 54 starts and 8.66 ERA and -.2 f-wins above replacement. Adding Odorizzi can essentially push that junk at #5 out and put his numbers in their place. Add that to a 83 win team and I think you can add a handful of wins easily. A staff ace would be great but putting together a very solid staff from top to bottom is a good start.

[h2oface]

My thoughts? Well, Ok. It should be better, I hope. Can't say it excites me. I think Correia, Pelfrey, etc. Still hoping to get excited with the real significant help to the starting rotation. Someone I don't have to try to talk myself, or read others, into pretending he is what he isn't, or just wants to be..... a consensus ace.

Edited February 19, 2018 by h2oface

[wabene]

after excoriating them over the Sanchez debacle I must give proper credit to Falvine for the hornswoggling of TB on this deal

As much as I like the hornswoggling reference the debacle reference cancels it out

[wabene]

I think this a great trade.  Odorizzi could provide some very good results the next year or two.  I was encouraged by the article on him that the Tampa Bay Times did after his last start in 2017.  Odorizzi said he's never felt better as a pitcher and was excited to take the momentum he had in September into next year.  Time will tell.  

 

By the way, here is chart I found on "Beyond the Box Score" that shows pitching aging curves by total fWAR. Just thought it was interesting to see.  I would like to see this through 2017.  I also edited post to include 20+ game starter aging curves. 

 

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/4041081/Aging_2.pnghttp://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4041249/Aging_3.png

 

How much did the Cubs pay for Darvish again?

[iastfan112]

 

How much did the Cubs pay for Darvish again?

 
Those charts are pretty pointless to judge Darvish by. Your not isolating the guys who dominate at their peak from the ones who manage to put together a few decent season during that time frame before their decline kicks in. Including Nick Blackburn in the same dataset as Yu Darvish isn't going to tell you much.

[shs_59]

Great trade . stuff Wise Odorizzi reminds me of Brad Radke... Odorizzi is what I thought Kevin Slowey would have become. Odorizzi to me, is a #2 or legit #3. Starter... Those that try to knock him down to a #4 or even a strong #5. Don't know what the heck they're talking about. Try facing Yankees, Red Sox , Orioles and Blie Jay's lineups / hitters ~ 65 times a year in which probably 10 or 11 of Odo's starts were against

[nytwinsfan]

 

He had back and hamstring issues.  Back issues started at Spring Training. That made him make mechanical adjustments that hurt his pitching.  He went to the DL, rested his back and then returned.  Took him about another month to fix his mechanics. 

Check his September numbers.

Yeah, injuries might be a legit reason to expect some upside.  Hope you are right.

[Deduno Abides]

It’s interesting that Palacios could be Tampa’s sixth-ranked SS, behind even old friend Jelfry Marte.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Try facing Yankees, Red Sox , Orioles and Blie Jay's lineups / hitters ~ 65 times a year in which probably 10 or 11 of Odo's starts were against

14 starts, actually. But in 2017, Odorizzi gave up 4.98 runs per 9 innings against the AL East, vs. 5.06 runs per 9 innings versus everyone else. The AL East was not why he struggled in 2017.

[Doomtints]

 

I was originally ok with the trade. I thought Odorizzi was nice piece to complement the rest of rotation. But after reading the most recent Athletic article I look at this trade in a different light. The Twins #5 starters last year combine to have 54 starts and 8.66 ERA and -.2 f-wins above replacement. Adding Odorizzi can essentially push that junk at #5 out and put his numbers in their place. Add that to a 83 win team and I think you can add a handful of wins easily. A staff ace would be great but putting together a very solid staff from top to bottom is a good start.

 

At least you are realistic about him being a #5. We now have 1,2,5 sealed up, and we can hope some of the others on the roster land somewhere north of #5 this year. (And at least one of them probably will.)

Edited February 19, 2018 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

Great trade . stuff Wise Odorizzi reminds me of Brad Radke... Odorizzi is what I thought Kevin Slowey would have become. Odorizzi to me, is a #2 or legit #3. Starter... Those that try to knock him down to a #4 or even a strong #5. Don't know what the heck they're talking about. Try facing Yankees, Red Sox , Orioles and Blie Jay's lineups / hitters ~ 65 times a year in which probably 10 or 11 of Odo's starts were against

If he's a legit number three, why was he basically free?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The past 4-5 days are where the rubber meets the road for the front office. I actually laughed at the Sanchez signing but quite liked the Odorizzi signing; not because I think he's great but if you give up your fourth-best SS prospect in the low minors for what should be a competent starting pitcher, that's a good deal.

 

So, I'm underwhelmed. Not super unhappy but definitely underwhelmed.

 

Now it's up to the front office to show they're smarter than me. They made their decisions, now we wait to see how it all plays out.

[Mike Sixel]

Minnesota (T)wins

12:32 I know some articles have been posted about the Odorizzi/Palacios trade. I can continue to feel hopeful (or rather less bad?) about the Twins rotation this year? I love the trade, feels kinda weak for TB return, right?

Travis Sawchik

12:32 I like the Odorizzi pickup even he's more of a back-end guy...the Twins have a huge SP need and their SP depth was horrendous last season

12:33 Twins didn't have to surrender much either.

[twinssouth]

If he's a legit number three, why was he basically free?

Shedding salary. Per ownership. They had to go from upper 70's payroll to 60M

[Mike Sixel]

Shedding salary. Per ownership. They had to go from upper 70's payroll to 60M

And no other team would offer more than that for a number three?

[Mr. Brooks]

Great trade . stuff Wise Odorizzi reminds me of Brad Radke... Odorizzi is what I thought Kevin Slowey would have become. Odorizzi to me, is a #2 or legit #3. Starter... Those that try to knock him down to a #4 or even a strong #5. Don't know what the heck they're talking about. Try facing Yankees, Red Sox , Orioles and Blie Jay's lineups / hitters ~ 65 times a year in which probably 10 or 11 of Odo's starts were against

Teams don't trade #2 pitchers, with 2 years of cheap team control for Jermaine Palacios.

 

It's already been posted in these threads that the facts don't line up with the perception of AL East the last couple years. Jake Odorizzi faced one of the easiest average opposing hitters in baseball last year.

 

And saying that people don't know what they are talking about, because they don't agree with your opinion really has no place on this site.

[Mr. Brooks]

The past 4-5 days are where the rubber meets the road for the front office. I actually laughed at the Sanchez signing but quite liked the Odorizzi signing; not because I think he's great but if you give up your fourth-best SS prospect in the low minors for what should be a competent starting pitcher, that's a good deal.

 

So, I'm underwhelmed. Not super unhappy but definitely underwhelmed.

 

Now it's up to the front office to show they're smarter than me. They made their decisions, now we wait to see how it all plays out.

So, no pitchforks then?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, no pitchforks then?

The pitchfork mob can be proportionally underwhelming too!

[terrydactyls]

Teams don't trade #2 pitchers, with 2 years of cheap team control for Jermaine Palacios.

It's already been posted in these threads that the facts don't line up with the perception of AL East the last couple years. Jake Odorizzi faced one of the easiest average opposing hitters in baseball last year.

And saying that people don't know what they are talking about, because they don't agree with your opinion really has no place on this site.

Your response to shs_59 sounds to me like your telling him he doesn't know what he's talking about.t

[AlwaysinModeration]

The argument is that the cost for Odorizzi was not steep because a) he is not good, or b ) the Rays really value Palacios (and thus the cost was in fact steep, c) Palacios is really good, or d) Rays were just shedding payroll.

To these arguments, I say:

a) maybe, time will tell how good he is. But if he isn’t, this isn’t something to get worked up over

b ) maybe, but even if so, why didn’t the Rays get more than Palacios, even if they think Palacios is the next Miguel Tejada

c) maybe, if so great, the Twins have a hugely deep farm system and are using it to improve a clear area of need

d) maybe, in which case the Twins lucked out, especially that the Rays didn’t shop him more extensively looking for a better deal.

In any event, I still like the trade, think they got a rotation upgrade with potential for upside for peanuts, and think it will work out as a win for the Twins.

Now, random note...was Odorizzi the name of the dog from Garfield?

[bird]

 

How much did the Cubs pay for Darvish again?

 

 

Don't despair, his rate of decline will level off over the last four years.

[Twins33]

Now, random note...was Odorizzi the name of the dog from Garfield?

Ha! Odie could be his nickname though fans have always called him Odo from what I've seen and that's how i shorthand it as well.

[InterQuartileFlange]

For whatever it's worth (very little):

 

Palacios strikes me as both front offices acting intelligently. Taking Tampa at their word (although sadly, no front offices are likely to reply with "eh, he's just a guy"), they've scouted Palacios and like him. Palacios is also likely undervalued due to being on the Twins and being the 4th/5th best SS under 25 in the system. My take from the various prospect reports has been that there were a number of orgs where he'd have been in the Top 10 (see also: the Pirates return for Cole). They likely feel they found someone who was undervalued in the baseball and prospect community.

 

From the Twins standpoint, they found someone who (compared to the community) overvalued Palacios. They flipped him to get 2 years of a starter who has had past success going into his Age 28 season. The return isn't as appealing as say, Cole, but the cost was far less. For the similar price, I'd rather have Odorizzi than Moore-but we'll get a chance to watch that play out this season.

 

The 19 17 pages of this thread seem to have a bit of an undercurrent where reaction to the move is getting crossed with reaction to not making [poster's preferred move]. Kudos to those who have been able to discuss without conflating the two.

Edited February 19, 2018 by InterQuartileFlange

[InterQuartileFlange]

Also, because I was bored and am not going grocery shopping in this muck:

 

Odorizzi threw more than 400 innings from 2014-2016 with both his ERA and FIP below 4 and a K/9 above 8. His poor 2017 (ERA/FIP > 4, fWAR < 2) has been much discussed. But it made me curious-who fit those criteria from 13-15 and had a poor 16.... and how'd they perform in 2017?

 

Turns out there were 12 pitchers who saw a similar dropoff after a recent track record of success. 8 of them threw 100+IP in 2017: Mike Fiers, Jordan Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, Sonny Gray, and the former Tiger/new Twin who shall not be named.

 

5 of these stories ended poorly, with 2017 being a worse season for the pitcher. 1 was a tiny bit more rosy as James Shields went from atrocious (5.85 ERA/6.01 FIP/-1.1 WAR) to... still bad (5.23/5.83/-0.2).

 

The two who succeeded: Corbin and Gray. These two, like Odorizzi, were the only ones from that set under 30 years old in 2017. There are certainly differences (Odorizzi's BABIP was much lower than any of the 8, Groundballers like Corbin/Gray fared much better than FBprone folks like [redacted], Shields, and Zimmerman) but Odorizzi's whiff rate and K/9 both stood out against that group.

 

The endpoints are aribtraryish and I've only looked at a year so nobody should read too much into this, other than "If you've had a track record of success and can miss bats, a bad season before you're 30 isn't a death sentence". I'd say "Who has bounceback seasons?" for pitchers like this would be an interesting place to look for anyone else with an itch to pop open Excel tonight though.

[Mr. Brooks]

Your response to shs_59 sounds to me like your telling him he doesn't know what he's talking about.t

In what way? I just posted facts, no commentary.