Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[Danchat]

 

It doesn't shock me.  You're a fair person in how you respond to this team, I genuinely appreciate your posts because you're among a the group here that you can't predict what they're going to type before they type it.  I come here for interesting takes, the cookie cutter responses aren't interesting.  The Strib comments are full of those, I come here for interesting takes.  (If anything, your previous posting endeavor was more shocking)

 

The current talent of the rotation makes me think a .500ish team, which puts you in the conversation for a WC spot.  Which would then mean the real question could be their aggressiveness at the deadline.  

 

But I think adding a guy like Cobb or Lynn could put them solidly in WC and divisional contention.  In lieu of getting a #2, I'll settle for having a bevy of 3/4 types.  This offense is good enough to make that workable.  

 

And in lieu of Cobb or Lynn?  Well then go get a DH and just put your foot down on the offensive side of the game.  Either way, this current roster is too middling for my liking.  And that looks like a wasted opportunity.

Yeah, I also think they're a .500 team but they'll be a few wins above .500 thanks to the poor competition in the division. They sorely need a #1 starter to be a playoff contender.

 

I personally think they're done with adding starters (Wolfson said something to that affect). However, speaking of getting a DH, I would try to acquire Dickerson from the Rays. Now that's he's DFA'd, they're basically forced to trade him, so I think the Twins could get a discount on him.

[Oxtung]

 

Won’t like me quote you mike but came here to post the same article. His BABIP was so low last year because those 17 extra hits were homers last year and didn’t count towards BABIP.

Homers have no effect on BABIP. They are entirely removed from the equation because they are not a "ball in play".

Edited February 18, 2018 by Oxtung

[Oxtung]

 

This is off topic, but stats aren't objective. Ever. They are all formed by humans, which means they are founded on human choice and bias. Statistical analysis is one form among many of narrating the world. The history of science is full of people developing statistics that both reproduce and justify preexisting viewpoints. The statistical concept of regression is one example. It describes an anomaly returning to some mythical norm. Did you know that the concept was invented by Charles Darwin's cousin, Francis Galton--the father of the eugenics movement? In that context, regression gains a sinister aspect, in that it applies standards of normalcy and deviance to human bodies and paves the way for "legitimate" racial hierarchies.

Stats are not objective.

You're conflating objective stats with subjective projections. "Regression" is not a stat. It is applied to statistics to create a forward looking prediction. That is entirely subjective.

 

Stats, by definition, are objective. Rosario hit 27 HR's last year. His BA was .290. He had a .312 BABIP. These things are indisputable. 

[gunnarthor]

really late to this thread but the trade seems pretty decent to me

[rico7961]

Odorizzi will be long gone from the Twins before Palacios ever plays a major league game. That's if he ever does. So the Twins win the trade until the day Palacios, MAKES the majors. Knowing the Twins luck. he will be the next coming of D Jeter and all our other SS prospects will flop.

[AZTwin]

Homers have no effect on BABIP. They are entirely removed from the equation because they are not a "ball in play".

Exactly. But they impact performance. Lets add them to the equation. Let’s pretend 500 balls in play at .300. That’s 150 hits. Now 500 balls in play at .200. That’s 100 hits. Now let’s add 30 homeruns to the .200 rate and 18 homeruns to the .300 rate

 

168/518 = .324

 

130/530 = .245

 

Closes the gap in rate quite dramatically. Now plug in the actual numbers? .270 vs. .230 starting point? Actual average balls in play each year... can’t find the raw stats that go into it, but I’m guessing there’s no difference once you account for homeruns.

Edited February 18, 2018 by AZTwin

[Mike Sixel]

I'm with ya on this. However... it's a strange place for me to be. Before the off-season started I never dreamed the Twins would be in the hunt for a top end starter so I was hoping for complete focus on the bullpen and creativity with the rotation such as moving someone out of a bullpen role into the rotation like Minor.

 

Now that Darvish was supposedly in play... My mindset has changed and now I can't shake the desire for a top end guy that will push the others down a notch.

 

However... If they don't grab that top end guy... I will remained heartened by one thing. The Twins have quality depth and that hasn't been the case for quite a few years.

 

We shouldn't have to throw a Cole DeVries or Scott Diamond type pitcher for 20 plus starts just to get through the season. I think this could be huge.

I am not yet convinced they have quality. I hope so, but I'm not convinced.

[Thrylos]

 

I’ll take odorrizzi having higher BABIP rate if it means giving up less homers

 

BABIP is Batting Average of Balls In Play.  Homers are not in play, thus excluded.  Balls in play are balls hit fair and stay in the park.

[Oxtung]

 

Exactly. But they impact performance. Lets add them to the equation. Let’s pretend 500 balls in play at .300. That’s 150 hits. Now 500 balls in play at .200. That’s 100 hits. Now let’s add 30 homeruns to the .200 rate and 18 homeruns to the .300 rate

168/518 = .324

130/530 = .245

Closes the gap in rate quite dramatically. Now plug in the actual numbers? .270 vs. .230 starting point? Actual average balls in play each year... can’t find the raw stats that go into it, but I’m guessing there’s no difference once you account for homeruns.

You're more than welcome to create your own stat with whatever inputs you desire and if it leads to an improvement in our current understanding of the game, awesome! 

 

BABIP is used to understand how lucky/unlucky a player was based on the balls that landed in the field of play. Since there is no fielder that can affect home runs it isn't included (the minute number of Torii Hunter-like catches withstanding).

 

In the case of Odorizzi, his very low BABIP suggests he got pretty lucky last year and we should expect more hits to fall in 2018, regardless of how many home runs he gives up.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

BABIP is Batting Average of Balls In Play. Homers are not in play, thus excluded. Balls in play are balls hit fair and stay in the park.

just going out on a limb, but I believe AZ was saying s/he’d be ok if more homers stayed in the park, as then they would be a part of the BABIP metric. Edited February 18, 2018 by Sconnie

[snap4birds]

 

A few stats to think about with Odorizzi and his nice ERA:

 

- Odorizzi had good fortune with bullpen help. League average ~30% of bequeathed runners on base end up scoring. Odorizzi had only 15% last year.

- Odorizzi was 7th in baseball in total unearned runs.

- Baseball Reference calculated that he had the easiest pitching environment in the AL in 2017. This attempts to combine the quality of opponents, team defense and stadium effects.

I was wondering how a pitcher with 143 IP, 117 hits allowed, 127 KO's could have a 0 bWAR.  I like the 'new' stats, but don't always understand how they are calculated.  So from reading the comments to this point, I'm guessing Odorizzi had a 0 bWAR because of a high(ish) walk rate, a high(ish) HR rate, extremely low BABIP, and a high strand rate.  

I still think it was a great trade, now if they can land Archer or someone at the top, Cleveland should be worried.  But that can also occur during the season.  

[Thegrin]

I hate being negative, BUT if looks too good to be true its usually too good to be true.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Odorizzi had good fortune with bullpen help. League average ~30% of bequeathed runners on base end up scoring. Odorizzi had only 15% last year.

Interesting. Fangraphs actually said he got -1.2 wins in 2017 from stranding runners (or a lack thereof).

[AZTwin]

just going out on a limb, but I believe AZ was saying s/he’d be ok if more homers stayed in the park, as then they would be a part of the BABIP metric.

Bingo.  Even if it turned some of those homers into doubles.  Its a net positive.

Edited February 18, 2018 by AZTwin

[NewClearHarley]

 

Odorizzi had a decent start last year but was terrible from midseason on. (And "midseason" is being generous). Of his 28 starts, 18 were bad outings (3 or more runs or lasting less than 6 innings).

 

Teams expect more than 150 innings from their #3 pitchers. This is no #3. If he performs at his potential he is a #4. If he continues his slide, well....

 

It's weird how the Twins get tunnel vision on certain players, particularly pitchers. This isn't the first time Odorizzi has come up in conversation.

Some are suggesting Odorizzi can play better with a better defense behind him. According to his BABIP, he was extremely lucky last year when it comes to defense, luckier than any Twins pitcher. The dude allowed 59 home runs over the past two years! His failures are all on him.

 

Rays fans are happy to see him go. I suspect we have been Miloned.

non-quality starts (as you define above) describes roughly 80% of Minnesota's starts last year by pitchers not named Berrios and Santana. So on this team last season (arguably his worst ever), Odorizzi would have been our third best starting pitcher. If he is out there every fifth day as our #3, I will feel more confident in our chances than watching Bartolo Colon or Implosion Gibson or Adalberto 4-2/3 IP Mejia.

 

Now I'm not saying I wouldn't love to acquire a true #1 or ace, but Santana was pretty close to that over the last couple years pitching multiple shutouts and complete games (he led the entire AL last year in both categories). In addition, over the last five years pretty much everyone has been saying that Berrios is projected to be our next superstar starter. He was pretty darn good last year and if he improves on that he very well might be our ace that we are looking for. The fact of the matter is that MLB teams don't trade young cost-controlled #1 starters frequently and when they do they want a Kings' Ransom. Even high-end young cost-controlled non-aces (Jose Quintana) cost ridiculous amounts via trade. 

 

If we do not acquire another starter, I feel fine expecting our rotation to be Santana, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, ?. With a dramatically improved bullpen, this team should compete with CLE for the division all season. Whether or not we can get past NY or HOU in the post season remains to be seen, but nothing is ever guaranteed. Maybe we get lucky and a team goes into sell mode at the trade deadline and the Twins do a Royals-like move and acquire a Cueto-level starter to carry us through the playoffs. 

[NewClearHarley]

so i was slightly off - the Twins were 30/104 on quality starts by pitchers not named Santana and Berrios. So our 3-5 starters only had 71% failure at achieving Quality start status. Over the last four years Odorizzi has 59 QS in 120 Starts. That works out to basically 50% quality starts.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Heard his nice interview on MLB channel this morning he talked about his back injury and the effect on him last year before he went on the disabled list his piches were were breaking across the plate because he was not able to finish and stretch out the last part of his delivery normally they break down not across the plate and he attributed that for the Home Run problems after the disabled list he came back and did not have that problem. He was very excited to be coming to the twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How much would you be willing to trade for Gibson? Odorizzi is basically Gibson, though they get there in different ways.
The Rays don't need to sober up, this seems like a pretty fair trade.

 

I think you need to look a bit harder at their career numbers, not just 2017.

[diehardtwinsfan]

He definitely wasn't my first target, but I'm not really going to argue with the price. The question, as I see it, is whether 2017 was an aberration or the new normal. Odorizzi was a pretty decent pitcher in 2015 and 2016, definitely well above average. He was basically a very slightly better than league average starter in 2017. His walk rate spiked pretty high. I've got to hope there was a reason for that, whether that was due to his back injury or not. He's not a bad bounce back candidate, and could pitch like a 2 this season. For Palacios, I'm not going to argue with the move.

[Mr. Brooks]

When you say if you had to lean one way or another, Tampa got the better of the deal. COME ON MAN!

Yeah, it's a very fair trade. I wouldn't chose to lean one way or another, because it is so fair. But, if forced to, I'd lean Rays.

I don't understand how that statement leads to the belief that I think Falvine are bad at their jobs.

I'm among the biggest Falvine fanboys on this site.

[Mr. Brooks]

One last thing from me and then I'll hang up and listen

 

Even if you don't like Odorizzi, Jermaine Palacios was buried behind a bunch of other shortstops. Furthermore, he's going to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft at the end of this season. It's tough to imagine the Twins would've added him to the 40-man roster. Would he get taken in the draft? Maybe, maybe not, but it's entirely possible the Twins would've lost Palacios at the end of the year and gotten absolutely nothing in return.

I don't think anyone is complaining that Palacios was traded for Odorizzi.

 

Most things aren't black and white. I think that can get lost in threads like this.

Multiple times I've had to point out that I like the trade, that I think it's a fair trade, and bringing in Odorizzi is smart.

 

Sometimes in these threads people forget there is grey area. That disagreeing with the opinion that Odorizzi is a surefire #3 or #4 means you don't like the trade, or think Odorizzi is terrible.

[Mr. Brooks]

Odorizzi will be long gone from the Twins before Palacios ever plays a major league game. That's if he ever does. So the Twins win the trade until the day Palacios, MAKES the majors. Knowing the Twins luck. he will be the next coming of D Jeter and all our other SS prospects will flop.

Not necessarily. Odorizzi could be a negative WAR player during his time with the Twins, at which point the Twins will have lost the trade, at least until Palacios debuts and has a chance to also cost his team wins.

Simply being on a major league roster is no guarantee that a player is producing wins for his team.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think you need to look a bit harder at their career numbers, not just 2017.

I was using their career numbers. Basically identical career FIP and xFIP.

[Dr. Evil]

Having a top outfield playing behind him is bound to help his numbers. Also, I really like the trade.

[Platoon]

Yeah, I also think they're a .500 team but they'll be a few wins above .500 thanks to the poor competition in the division. They sorely need a #1 starter to be a playoff contender.

 

I personally think they're done with adding starters (Wolfson said something to that affect). However, speaking of getting a DH, I would try to acquire Dickerson from the Rays. Now that's he's DFA'd, they're basically forced to trade him, so I think the Twins could get a discount on him.

Our DH may have just arrived in camp. LEN3 reported, delicately, that Sanos conditioning has been impacted by his leg injury. Reading between the lines is not only acceptable, it's highly encouraged. I for one fear that Sanos season is going to be very disappointing. As for playing third, that seems to be quite a bit into the future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Having a top outfield playing behind him is bound to help his numbers. Also, I really like the trade.

The Tampa outfield was pretty well regarded -- Kiermaier especially. The Rays defense overall ranked pretty highly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not necessarily. Odorizzi could be a negative WAR player during his time with the Twins, at which point the Twins will have lost the trade, at least until Palacios debuts and has a chance to also cost his team wins.

Simply being on a major league roster is no guarantee that a player is producing wins for his team.

Actually, Odorizzi could be 0 WAR, or even slightly positive, and still be a "negative" for the Twins, given they are stopping their search for a better starter with him.

[AZTwin]

Actually, Odorizzi could be 0 WAR, or even slightly positive, and still be a "negative" for the Twins, given they are stopping their search for a better starter with him.

In football terms, it’s like trading for a starter for a future 4th round pick

[Otto von Ballpark]

In football terms, it’s like trading for a starter for a future 4th round pick

I'm not saying it is a bad trade today, I endorse it.

 

Just that "Palacios won't play in MLB for awhile" doesn't guarantee this will be a win for the Twins in the final accounting. Odorizzi still has to perform.

 

In your example, trading a 4th round pick for a starter is fine, but if you passed up capable free agents to make the trade... the "starter" still has to perform.

[Rosterman]

Should think about a 2-3 years extension with a buyout clause.