Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[bird]

 

Also, because I was bored and am not going grocery shopping in this muck:

 

Odorizzi threw more than 400 innings from 2014-2016 with both his ERA and FIP below 4 and a K/9 above 8. His poor 2017 (ERA/FIP > 4, fWAR < 2) has been much discussed. But it made me curious-who fit those criteria from 13-15 and had a poor 16.... and how'd they perform in 2017?

 

Turns out there were 12 pitchers who saw a similar dropoff after a recent track record of success. 8 of them threw 100+IP in 2017: Mike Fiers, Jordan Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, Sonny Gray, and the former Tiger/new Twin who shall not be named.

 

5 of these stories ended poorly, with 2017 being a worse season for the pitcher. 1 was a tiny bit more rosy as James Shields went from atrocious (5.85 ERA/6.01 FIP/-1.1 WAR) to... still bad (5.23/5.83/-0.2).

 

The two who succeeded: Corbin and Gray. These two, like Odorizzi, were the only ones from that set under 30 years old in 2017. There are certainly differences (Odorizzi's BABIP was much lower than any of the 8, Groundballers like Corbin/Gray fared much better than FBprone folks like [redacted], Shields, and Zimmerman) but Odorizzi's whiff rate and K/9 both stood out against that group.

 

The endpoints are aribtraryish and I've only looked at a year so nobody should read too much into this, other than "If you've had a track record of success and can miss bats, a bad season before you're 30 isn't a death sentence". I'd say "Who has bounceback seasons?" for pitchers like this would be an interesting place to look for anyone else with an itch to pop open Excel tonight though.

 

 

Thank you for your two posts. Insightful stuff. If snowfall is what it takes to get you to post, let it snow.

[Mike Sixel]

Thank you for your two posts. Insightful stuff. If snowfall is what it takes to get you to post, let it snow.

Agreed, two good posts.

[Dr. Evil]

The Tampa outfield was pretty well regarded -- Kiermaier especially. The Rays defense overall ranked pretty highly.

Very good point. I haven't researched in as much detail. I had Buxton on the brain when I posted.

[ALessKosherScott]

A right-handed extreme flyball pitcher who limits batting average seems like a good piece for Target Field.

[Jham]

For whatever it's worth (very little):

 

Palacios strikes me as both front offices acting intelligently. Taking Tampa at their word (although sadly, no front offices are likely to reply with "eh, he's just a guy"), they've scouted Palacios and like him. Palacios is also likely undervalued due to being on the Twins and being the 4th/5th best SS under 25 in the system. My take from the various prospect reports has been that there were a number of orgs where he'd have been in the Top 10 (see also: the Pirates return for Cole). They likely feel they found someone who was undervalued in the baseball and prospect community.

 

From the Twins standpoint, they found someone who (compared to the community) overvalued Palacios. They flipped him to get 2 years of a starter who has had past success going into his Age 28 season. The return isn't as appealing as say, Cole, but the cost was far less. For the similar price, I'd rather have Odorizzi than Moore-but we'll get a chance to watch that play out this season.

 

The 19 17 pages of this thread seem to have a bit of an undercurrent where reaction to the move is getting crossed with reaction to not making [poster's preferred move]. Kudos to those who have been able to discuss without conflating the two.

You need to post more. Human nature is darn fascinating. It makes us incredibly predictable at times. And incredibly unpredictable at times. There is no metric to measure the human elements. And yet we each diligently chase our own best interests. Even if it's just a opinion. The Rays don't get ripped off. I looked at Baseball America's prospect rankings for Polacios, Polanco, and Gordon. Really similar profiles. Biggest difference is that Gordon started as a top prospect, Polanco had to work his way there, and Polacios will need to work on to those lists. Polacios is only a year older and 1 level behind Gordon.

 

His offense had developed similarly. His defense is evidently better. Given Polacios' offensive breakout last year, and the sure route to the bigs for ss being defense, it's actually a little is he's not more highly regarded than the 3 others with defensive concerns (and offensive concerns is say). Lewis, Wander, and Gordon were all big dollar bonus babies and have carried all the hype.

 

But if we had to be truly honest, I'm guessing we'd admit doubts regarding each of the other more highly regarded 6s. Lewis slumped after a hot start and always had concerns at short. Gordon's production finally matched the hype, the hype turned around and finally met his performance. Wander Javier had similar questions about his ability to stick at the position, and much like the others, his bat, while showing flashes really hasn't Terry matched the hype.

 

Meanwhile Polacios has quietly climbed the ladder while out hitting the others, apparently adding the power, and without the apparent question marks regarding the glove.

 

In summation, Tampa rarely loses trades. Though they often trade fairly. After all, their model requires frequent trade partners.

 

And you should post more.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Jham

[Mr. Brooks]

You need to post more. Human nature is darn fascinating. It makes us incredibly predictable at times. And incredibly unpredictable at times. There is no metric to measure the human elements. And yet we each diligently chase our own best interests. Even if it's just a opinion. The Rays don't get ripped off. I looked at Baseball America's prospect rankings for Polacios, Polanco, and Gordon. Really similar profiles. Biggest difference is that Gordon started as a top prospect, Polanco had to work his way there, and Polacios will need to work on to those lists. Polacios is only a year older and 1 level behind Gordon. His offense had developed similarly. His defense is evidently better. Given Polacios' offensive breakout last year, and the sure route to the bigs for ss being defense, it's actually a little is he's not more highly regarded than the 3 others with defensive concerns (and offensive concerns is say). Lewis, Wander, and Gordon were all big dollar bonus babies and have carried all the hype. But if we had to be truly honest, I'm guessing we'd admit doubts regarding each of the other more highly regarded 6s. Lewis slumped after a hot start and always had concerns at short. Gordon's production finally matched the hype, the hype turned around and finally met his performance. Wander Javier had similar questions about his ability to stick at the position, and much like the others, his bat, while showing flashes really hasn't Terry matched the hype. Meanwhile Polacios has quietly climbed the ladder while out hitting the others, apparently adding the power, and without the apparent question marks regarding the glove.

 

In summation, Tampa rarely loses trades. Though they often trade fairly. After all, their model requires frequent trade partners.

 

And you should post more.

I thought Palacios was expected to have to move off of SS?

[bird]

 

I thought Palacios was expected to have to move off of SS?

 

 

Curiously, I think I've read scouting reports or have seen comments about all four of these guys saying they have a chance to stick at SS. The only one of the four that I cannot recall someone suggesting they may need to switch positions is Palacios. But I don't catch everything and would guess someone somewhere has said Palacios may not stick. It feels like a standard caveat these days.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Curiously, I think I've read scouting reports or have seen comments about all four of these guys saying they have a chance to stick at SS. The only one of the four that I cannot recall someone suggesting they may need to switch positions is Palacios. But I don't catch everything and would guess someone somewhere has said Palacios may not stick. It feels like a standard caveat these days.

Ditto. I’ve always read the question is his bat, not his glove.

[Mr. Brooks]

Curiously, I think I've read scouting reports or have seen comments about all four of these guys saying they have a chance to stick at SS. The only one of the four that I cannot recall someone suggesting they may need to switch positions is Palacios. But I don't catch everything and would guess someone somewhere has said Palacios may not stick. It feels like a standard caveat these days.

I found where I'd seen it. It was in the mlbtraderumers write up of the trade. Though, I now notice that it says he might have to move off SS in part because of the depth ahead of him, fwiw.

 

"MLB.com’s scouting report described him as “an offensive-minded middle infielder whose bat is a little bit ahead of his glove….He has some potential at the plate to hit for average and good extra-base pop.” Palacios’s defense got solid reviews, though the assumption was that he would eventually have to change positions due to the number of other good shortstops ahead of him in the Twins’ system; the same could be true for him in Tampa given Willy Adames‘ rep as the Rays’ shortstop of the future."

[Mr. Brooks]

Ditto. I’ve always read the question is his bat, not his glove.

Both fangraphs and mlb.com scouting reports describe his bat being ahead of his glove.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Both fangraphs and mlb.com scouting reports describe his bat being ahead of his glove.

Interesting. BP has him as a plus defender.

[Mr. Brooks]

Interesting. BP has him as a plus defender.

I'd assume when exactly each publication scouted him makes a difference. These guys are so young when they sign it's all projection.

I remember when Polanco first signed, he was scouted as a glove first guy who may never hit enough.

By the time he got close to mlb, of course, that had flipped.

[Jham]

I thought Palacios was expected to have to move off of SS?

Not from what I've read. Strong arm, good glove, range, etc. He's extremely slight. Alexei Ramirez build. I think sometimes people see that and assume glove first/ only. So I would expect him to gain weight and strength, but I have not heard real concerns that he won't play short. I'm guessing the rays think that they can put some muscle on him, teach him to elevate, and have a shot at a 15 to 20 hr ss.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not from what I've read. Strong arm, good glove, range, etc. He's extremely slight. Alexei Ramirez build. I think sometimes people see that and assume glove first/ only. So I would expect him to gain weight and strength, but I have not heard real concerns that he won't play short. I'm guessing the rays think that they can put some muscle on him, teach him to elevate, and have a shot at a 15 to 20 hr ss.

Ahead of Willy Adames?

[Jham]

Ahead of Willy Adames?

Not at this time. But the Rays did trade for him. Same way I see the twins bringing in kalk and trading odorizzi instead of signing cobb as curious. Could mean something, could mean nothing.

 

But look at their stat lines coming through the minors. Polacios is only perhaps 1 step away from matching the likes of Gordon and adames.

[howieramone2]

 

He's ok. But let's be realistic, he was just traded for the twins third or fourth best short stop prospect....

Everyone is being realistic. 4th best SS prospect, in an organization deeper than any other at that position. Let's not forget Atlanta's top IFA prospect, said he didn't come here because of the competition at SS.

[howieramone2]

 

If Odorizzi’s peripherals we’re down last year because his injuries were lingering (2 separate DL stints), or because he was pitching himself into shape, AND he’s now healthy, I’m good with the assumption he’s a likely bounce back candidate. The low price of a guy who, through no fault of his own, projects as a utility player at best for us is also nice.

That being said, if Odorizzi is truly what he showed last year, we just got a guy that’s going to make it harder to start evaluating Gonsalves and Romero at the major league level. If that’s what happens, any price was too high to pay.

We don't need another Berrios of 2016. Gonzalves will make it to Target Field in 2018, and Romero in 2019. No need to throw them to the wolves.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Everyone is being realistic. 4th best SS prospect, in an organization deeper than any other at that position. Let's not forget Atlanta's top IFA prospect, said he didn't come here because of the competition at SS.

Also, we should note that it's going to become increasingly difficult to keep all those SS prospects at the correct level for their development while also staying at short. Palacios finished the season in Ft Myers but needs more time there. Lewis, if all goes according to plan, will likely end 2018 in Ft Myers. Javier is a wild card, as he has hit well and is now at the age where promotions can come fast and furious. In front of all of them, you have Gordon in Rochester and Polanco in Minnesota.

 

And you don't want to move a guy off short if at all possible. It made sense to give up a guy like Palacios who appears to be on an upward trajectory because you don't want to run into the issue of deciding to move either move Palacios to second or stunt Lewis' advancement through the system.

[howieramone2]

 

Four of those were on last year's team, that was bad at starting pitching.....

Did you know last season we were the first team in the history of baseball, to go from a 100 loss season to the playoffs? Can't argue with success.

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah, I also think they're a .500 team but they'll be a few wins above .500 thanks to the poor competition in the division. They sorely need a #1 starter to be a playoff contender.

 

I personally think they're done with adding starters (Wolfson said something to that affect). However, speaking of getting a DH, I would try to acquire Dickerson from the Rays. Now that's he's DFA'd, they're basically forced to trade him, so I think the Twins could get a discount on him.

They are already a playoff contender. Enough with the mythical aces. There maybe 10-12 in all of baseball, and those not fortunate to have one, are not going to take their baseball and go home.

[Mike Sixel]

Did you know last season we were the first team in the history of baseball, to go from a 100 loss season to the playoffs? Can't argue with success.

I did. And? Growth is not linear. Just ask the Diamondbacks.... They were sure they'd just get better in a line. Their GM even said it. They were universally mocked, and fired the next off-season.

[howieramone2]

 

I did. And? Growth is not linear. Just ask the Diamondbacks.... They were sure they'd just get better in a line. Their GM even said it. They were universally mocked, and fired the next off-season.

The Diamondbacks are not the Twins, and the Twins are not the Diamondbacks. 

[Oxtung]

 

They are already a playoff contender. Enough with the mythical aces. There maybe 10-12 in all of baseball, and those not fortunate to have one, are not going to take their baseball and go home.

Well a lot of that depends on how you define Ace; not everyone has your definition. If we instead say "front of the rotation pitcher" things start to look much clearer.

 

Let's review the top pitcher on each team in the playoffs last year:

 

AL

Keuchel, Severino, Sale, Kluber, E. Santana

 

NL

Kershaw, Greinke, Strasburg/Scherzer, Gray, Arrieta

 

Eight out of those eleven pitchers had sub-3 ERAs. Santana and Gray were both knocked out in the wild card games. While the Twins might be able to compete without a top of the rotation pitcher it clearly makes things much more difficult. There is no adjustment for difficulty in baseball; I hope the Twins make it easier on themselves and find that top of the rotation pitcher somewhere.

[Doomtints]

 

The Diamondbacks are not the Twins, and the Twins are not the Diamondbacks. 

 

http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/620/434/f9e.gif

[ashbury]

The Diamondbacks are not the Twins, and the Twins are not the Diamondbacks. 

http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/620/434/f9e.gif

Moderator's note: Guys. Let's not be condescending, one toward another.

[gunnarthor]

 

Well a lot of that depends on how you define Ace; not everyone has your definition. If we instead say "front of the rotation pitcher" things start to look much clearer.

 

Let's review the top pitcher on each team in the playoffs last year:

 

AL

Keuchel, Severino, Sale, Kluber, E. Santana

 

NL

Kershaw, Greinke, Strasburg/Scherzer, Gray, Arrieta

 

Eight out of those eleven pitchers had sub-3 ERAs. Santana and Gray were both knocked out in the wild card games. While the Twins might be able to compete without a top of the rotation pitcher it clearly makes things much more difficult. There is no adjustment for difficulty in baseball; I hope the Twins make it easier on themselves and find that top of the rotation pitcher somewhere.

You forgot to mention that Severino was also knocked out of the wild card game. Sale gave up 9 runs in 9.1ip in his post season. And Kluber was even worse, with an ERA approaching 13 in his two starts. Greinke gave up 7 runs in 8.2ip. 

 

Berrios and Santana were a solid top of the rotation last year. They can be again. I expect Berrios to make a step forward this year. But realistically, Santana pitched like a front of the rotation starter last year.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Everyone is being realistic. 4th best SS prospect, in an organization deeper than any other at that position. Let's not forget Atlanta's top IFA prospect, said he didn't come here because of the competition at SS.

 

Palacios might be good. He might even be the best shortstop down the road between all the guys in the system. But at the end of the day, it's kind of worth trading the prospect of that happening for the prospect of not wanting to stab our eyes out looking at our pitching staff this year.

[Oxtung]

 

You forgot to mention that Severino was also knocked out of the wild card game. Sale gave up 9 runs in 9.1ip in his post season. And Kluber was even worse, with an ERA approaching 13 in his two starts. Greinke gave up 7 runs in 8.2ip. 

 

Berrios and Santana were a solid top of the rotation last year. They can be again. I expect Berrios to make a step forward this year. But realistically, Santana pitched like a front of the rotation starter last year.

Yup, the sample sizes are small enough in the post season that it is hard to accurately predict the outcomes. That doesn't change the fact that front of the rotation pitchers are more likely to do better than mid-rotation or back of the rotation pitchers. However, I'm not able to use my crystal ball to predict which pitcher will go on a hot streak during the playoffs. Instead I'm hoping the FO goes with the pitchers that give us the greatest chance. In this case E.Santana is the weak link.

[kab21]

 

Also, we should note that it's going to become increasingly difficult to keep all those SS prospects at the correct level for their development while also staying at short. Palacios finished the season in Ft Myers but needs more time there. Lewis, if all goes according to plan, will likely end 2018 in Ft Myers. Javier is a wild card, as he has hit well and is now at the age where promotions can come fast and furious. In front of all of them, you have Gordon in Rochester and Polanco in Minnesota.

 

And you don't want to move a guy off short if at all possible. It made sense to give up a guy like Palacios who appears to be on an upward trajectory because you don't want to run into the issue of deciding to move either move Palacios to second or stunt Lewis' advancement through the system.

Not really. The Twins have played multiple SS prospects at multiple positions on the same team before and it makes it easier for the inevitable 'he's blocked but X position is needed' situation that arises.

I really like having guys like Palacios in the org and it is easy to see why the Rays targeted him. He is the A ball flyer that we often talk about targeting in similar trades. But overall I am quite happy with the trade. Odorizzi has his flaws but he should be solid and the Twins rotation has trainwreck written all over it. Hopefully someone like Mejia or Gonsalves nails down a spot this year to further solidify the rotation.

[kab21]

 

Not at this time. But the Rays did trade for him. Same way I see the twins bringing in kalk and trading odorizzi instead of signing cobb as curious. Could mean something, could mean nothing.

But look at their stat lines coming through the minors. Polacios is only perhaps 1 step away from matching the likes of Gordon and adames.

I see the Twins targeting Odorizzi (at the price of a prospect) instead of Cobb as a way of avoiding a 75M contract for an alright pitcher that could become dead weight halfway through. I would certainly rather have Cobb next season but I don't want to be paying Cobb 15+M for 5 years.