Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios

[jcphitman]

I look at it this way. The Twins could have traded a draft pick for Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn. All in their 30’s and all requiring three plus year commitments a higher overall price. Instead, they dealt for two years of a pitcher in his late 20’s and can separate with him before his age 30 at a two year max commitment at a reduced price vs. signing a FA unless they want to extend it longer.

 

The draft is growing in popularity. More picks mean more money and more opportunities for the FO to bring in their hand picked players. The prospect we gave up while good is from a spot of strength and an international signing from a past FO group.

 

I know there are much more statistics to compare. I’m choosing the financial approach with this one. Archer would have been the ideal target, but the Rays have to agree to trade him. If they trade him, good luck selling 5,000 seats per game. They need to retain some sort of selling point to their dwindling fan base. Maybe the Twins can blow them away with another offer for Archer, but it does appear they’ve made their move for the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

Really nice trade.

Moving to the AL Central out of the AL East will help him out. Moving to Target Field from the Thunderdome will help. I think he could be really good here.

I don't mind a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero/Sanchez for the bulk of the season. I don't think it's unlikely that'll be pretty good. I'd like to throw a Cobb or Lynn in there, but that's not happening.

Four of those were on last year's team, that was bad at starting pitching.....

[Mr. Brooks]

So let me get this straight. You like the Sanchez pick up, but are worried Odorizzi is on a downward trend?

I'm not sure I've said that I "like" the Sanchez signing. Just that looking deeper into the numbers,I don't hate it, and think there is a chance he becomes a smart bounce back candidate.

 

I also think, and have made clear that I think this trade was fine as well. They need arms, and didn't give up much. If they aren't going to sign a top of the rotation pitcher, then the more arms they can throw at those last 3 rotation spots to see which stick, the better, IMO.

 

I just disagree with the opinion that we've just landed a sure thing #3 or #4 starter. That disagreement doesn't mean i don't like the move.

 

Every single option after Berrios and Santana have huge question marks, anyone of them could wind up as the best or worst of the remaining options, because they all have so many question marks.

[AZTwin]

Won’t like me quote you mike but came here to post the same article. His BABIP was so low last year because those 17 extra hits were homers last year and didn’t count towards BABIP.

[Mr. Brooks]

0 WAR is an AAA player, or in other words a below average MLB player. He is already costing teams wins.

But most of the other options that he'd be replacing in the Twins rotation are also likely 0 WAR (or similar) players.

[Mr. Brooks]

Like most trades only time will tell who got the better end of the trade. I believe Falvey is a capable and bright baseball mind. I believe any decisions that are made by him are to make the Twins a better team. I believe that he has more information than any of us to make these decisions. I believe he is a better GM than any of us. Some posters might not agree with these beliefs by the sound of it!

Who disagrees with this??

Is anyone claiming they think he's trying to sabotage the team by intentionally making a bad trade?

Of course he has more information than, and is a better GM than any of us. What does any of that have to do with anything I'm saying?

 

Nowhere have I said that it's a bad trade.

And saying that we don't know yet if he helps our team, isn't the same as saying he doesn't help our team, or that Falvey doesn't know what he's doing, or isn't trying to make us better.

[bcs4]

 

If you don't think it's sustainable, then what exactly are we disagreeing about?

 

It was a comparison of Gibson and Odorizzi. BAPIP was used in the discussion. I don't like BAPIP, but even if BABIP is used, it shows Odorizzi has a much better history. That's my take, but maybe I'm wrong.

[AZTwin]

It was a comparison of Gibson and Odorizzi. BAPIP was used in the discussion. I don't like BAPIP, but even if BABIP is used, it shows Odorizzi has a much better history. That's my take, but maybe I'm wrong.

I’ll take odorrizzi having higher BABIP rate if it means giving up less homers

[Mr. Brooks]

It was a comparison of Gibson and Odorizzi. BAPIP was used in the discussion. I don't like BAPIP, but even if BABIP is used, it shows Odorizzi has a much better history. That's my take, but maybe I'm wrong.

I never used babip to compare the two.

I explicitly said they get there in different ways, but in the end, more or less look like the same pitcher.

Yes, Odorizzi will likely always have a babip advantage on Gibson, he's a fly ball pitcher, but for that same reason, Gibson will give up less home runs. Different paths resulting in more or less the same results.

[Riverbrian]

 

This may shock you, Levi, but I'm in this camp too, probably along with 85% of the rest here. Absent a front line starter, the prospects for improvement for this team in 2018 are extremely shaky at best. 

 

If you start with an objective of mid-rotation performance, every potential rotation option, outside of maybe Berrios, is a big question mark in one way or another. I don't think it's a glass half empty viewpoint to expect that 3 out of 5 of them will fail to give us #3 type performance. Which means that we trot out Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia, Santana, Hughes, maybe eventually May, and then begin the auditions perhaps of Slegers, Gonsalves...who am I missing? Oh. Sanchez. Maybe the team is more optimistic about some of these guys, and for reasons we don't know? It's perplexing.

 

So maybe 2 of them give us #3 stuff, maybe even 3 of them if the cards fall right. Maybe another 2 or 3 give us adequate results for a #4-5 slot. But rationally, the addition of the front line starter we have all been clamoring for makes the difference between competing for a postseason berth or not. On paper.

 

Assuming for a moment that Falvey is done now (a sad thought), where does this team finish in the AL Central? Out of the wild card hunt, at a few games under .500, in 3rd place behind Cleveland and Chicago? You have to play the games, but that's what I see as the risk without that front end guy.

 

I'm with ya on this. However... it's a strange place for me to be. Before the off-season started I never dreamed the Twins would be in the hunt for a top end starter so I was hoping for complete focus on the bullpen and creativity with the rotation such as moving someone out of a bullpen role into the rotation like Minor. 

 

Now that Darvish was supposedly in play... My mindset has changed and now I can't shake the desire for a top end guy that will push the others down a notch. 

 

However... If they don't grab that top end guy... I will remained heartened by one thing. The Twins have quality depth and that hasn't been the case for quite a few years.

 

We shouldn't have to throw a Cole DeVries or Scott Diamond type pitcher for 20 plus starts just to get through the season. I think this could be huge. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Really nice trade.

 

Moving to the AL Central out of the AL East will help him out. Moving to Target Field from the Thunderdome will help. I think he could be really good here.

Tampa's ballpark has rated as a pitcher's park for 9 straight seasons, and even before then, it was never more than neutral. It has never rated as a hitter's park.

 

And the AL East was not an offensive powerhouse last year. The 4 non-Tampa teams in the AL East averaged 770 runs last year. The AL Central and West teams averaged 767.

[Mr. Brooks]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-odorizzi-is-probably-an-adjustment-away/

Great read. Hopefully the Twins have something they can work with there.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

https://www.mlb.com/news/jake-odorizzi-gets-twins-closer-to-contending/c-266677752

 

Richard Justice says it well.

 

I’ll paraphrase- Good start, now go get one of the top 3 free agents still out there to really prove contention.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Who disagrees with this??

Is anyone claiming they think he's trying to sabotage the team by intentionally making a bad trade?

Of course he has more information than, and is a better GM than any of us. What does any of that have to do with anything I'm saying?

Nowhere have I said that it's a bad trade.

And saying that we don't know yet if he helps our team, isn't the same as saying he doesn't help our team, or that Falvey doesn't know what he's doing, or isn't trying to make us better.

 

When you say if you had to lean one way or another, Tampa got the better of the deal. COME ON MAN!

[bcs4]

 

Again, it's not a projection. There are systems that do project, like Steamer, ZIPS, PECOTA, but this isn't one of them. Humans also project. I think there are some very valid arguments about whether people are accurately projecting future BABIP. But that is a human projection not the stats.

 

I think maybe we're talking past each other. Here's what I said:

 

It's a weighted calculation. By definition it manipulates by including or not including selected statistics and their uses them in a way that is based on the designer's opinion. It doesn't take parks, schedule, defense, league, surface and many other factors into account that would all have a significant impact on projection.

 

I wasn't saying that it was a projection by itself, I was saying that based on excluded factors it's not that useful on projection, and especially in this circumstance.

[Doomtints]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-odorizzi-is-probably-an-adjustment-away/

 

This article focuses on his 30 home runs last year as the reason why last year was so much worse for him.

 

How many home runs did he have the year before last? 29. No mention of this in the article...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Tampa's ballpark has rated as a pitcher's park for 9 straight seasons, and even before then, it was never more than neutral. It has never rated as a hitter's park.

And the AL East was not an offensive powerhouse last year. The 4 non-Tampa teams in the AL East averaged 770 runs last year. The AL Central and West teams averaged 767.

I believe you, but how much of that has to do with Tampa Bay just having better than average pitching?

[AZTwin]

This article focuses on his 30 home runs last year as the reason why last year was so much worse for him.

 

How many home runs did he have the year before last? 29. No mention of this in the article...

40 extra innInns. Year before was 18 in more innings as well. That makes up for the BABIP argument

[DaveW]

 

I look at it this way. The Twins could have traded a draft pick for Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn. All in their 30’s and all requiring three plus year commitments a higher overall price. Instead, they dealt for two years of a pitcher in his late 20’s and can separate with him before his age 30 at a two year max commitment at a reduced price vs. signing a FA unless they want to extend it longer.

The draft is growing in popularity. More picks mean more money and more opportunities for the FO to bring in their hand picked players. The prospect we gave up while good is from a spot of strength and an international signing from a past FO group.

I know there are much more statistics to compare. I’m choosing the financial approach with this one. Archer would have been the ideal target, but the Rays have to agree to trade him. If they trade him, good luck selling 5,000 seats per game. They need to retain some sort of selling point to their dwindling fan base. Maybe the Twins can blow them away with another offer for Archer, but it does appear they’ve made their move for the rotation.

I still want them to go after Archer or another 'top of the rotation guy'

But the trade for Odorizzi is much better than overpaying for a guy like Lynn, Arrieta or Cobb on the FA market.

HOWEVER with that said, I still think you try to see if you can get one of those guys in on a team friendly deal. I wonder if Arrieta at this stage would be interested in a one year, 18 million (prove it) type of deal?

[Riverbrian]

 

I've been responding to people claiming we fleeced the Rays. If the Rays place a high value on Palacios, then we didn't fleece them. That's all I'm saying.

 

Exactly

 

The Twins didn't have a gun to their head. The only gun to their head was in the hand of the owner dictating that payroll has to be reduced. 

 

I think it is reasonable to assume that the Twins were not the only team that called the Rays about Odorizzi. They considered all the discussions and traded for the guy that their scouting department liked the best.  

 

That's how trades are supposed to work.

 

No one got fleeced yet. 

[DaveW]

 

I believe you, but how much of that has to do with Tampa Bay just having better than average pitching?

Yeah, David Price had a lot to do with that as well.

I think overall the Rays have always had some pretty damn good pitching, their weakness seemingly year in and year out has been offense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I believe you, but how much of that has to do with Tampa Bay just having better than average pitching?

Perhaps some, although Tampa's pitcher's road performance is in that calculation too. As well as Tampa's hitters, home vs road.

 

I think some skepticism of park factors is understandable, but it's hard to make a case that moving from Tampa to Minnesota is going to give a pitcher a park boost. At best, it could be neutral.

[prouster]

All stats are objective. By definition. You might disagree with what components the creator chose to include but it is still objectively measuring what it was intended to.

This is off topic, but stats aren't objective. Ever. They are all formed by humans, which means they are founded on human choice and bias. Statistical analysis is one form among many of narrating the world. The history of science is full of people developing statistics that both reproduce and justify preexisting viewpoints. The statistical concept of regression is one example. It describes an anomaly returning to some mythical norm. Did you know that the concept was invented by Charles Darwin's cousin, Francis Galton--the father of the eugenics movement? In that context, regression gains a sinister aspect, in that it applies standards of normalcy and deviance to human bodies and paves the way for "legitimate" racial hierarchies.

 

Stats are not objective.

Edited February 18, 2018 by prouster

[Tom Froemming]

 

That .269 career mark includes last year's .227. If you are going to attempt this exercise, shouldn't you use his career babip prior to 2017? Also, 17 more hits is pretty significant.
That's the difference between a .300 hitter, and a .265 hitter.
Guys are in the HOF because 17 more hits per year dropped in, compared to the other guy.

Finally, does any pitcher, even the best you can come up with, tend to sustain that low of a babip, fly ball pitcher or otherwise?

His BABIP prior to 2017 was .279. So using that rate instead, that would put us at something like 21 more hits, or less than a hit per start. If those are bases-clearing doubles, you've got issues. If those are two-out singles with the bases empty, big whoop. Not all hits are created equal, that's why we don't use batting average as the primary way to evaluate hitters anymore, right?

 

Speaking of which, there's hope that Odorizzi keeps the ball in the park better this season. His HR/FB was 15.5% last season, but his career rate prior to that it was 9.9%. To put that into context, that's the difference between giving up 30 homers and 19.

 

Does anyone sustain a .227 BABIP? No, I'd certainly suspect that will go up. I'd also expect his walk rate to go down, however, so it's possible things even out to some degree. Prior to 2017, Odorizzi walked 7.3% of the batters he faced, last season it was 10.1. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, David Price had a lot to do with that as well.

 

I think overall the Rays have always had some pretty damn good pitching, their weakness seemingly year in and year out has been offense.

Again, park factors include Price home vs road, the Tampa hitters home vs road, etc. And some park factor evidence of Tampa as a pitcher's park predates Price too.

 

Not to say park factors are super-precise, but I think they indicate a lean pretty well. I just don't see a case that Odorizzi should expect a park benefit with this move.

[TheLeviathan]

 

This may shock you, Levi, but I'm in this camp too, probably along with 85% of the rest here. Absent a front line starter, the prospects for improvement for this team in 2018 are extremely shaky at best. 

 

Assuming for a moment that Falvey is done now (a sad thought), where does this team finish in the AL Central? Out of the wild card hunt, at a few games under .500, in 3rd place behind Cleveland and Chicago? You have to play the games, but that's what I see as the risk without that front end guy.

 

It doesn't shock me.  You're a fair person in how you respond to this team, I genuinely appreciate your posts because you're among a the group here that you can't predict what they're going to type before they type it.  I come here for interesting takes, the cookie cutter responses aren't interesting.  The Strib comments are full of those, I come here for interesting takes.  (If anything, your previous posting endeavor was more shocking)

 

The current talent of the rotation makes me think a .500ish team, which puts you in the conversation for a WC spot.  Which would then mean the real question could be their aggressiveness at the deadline.  

 

But I think adding a guy like Cobb or Lynn could put them solidly in WC and divisional contention.  In lieu of getting a #2, I'll settle for having a bevy of 3/4 types.  This offense is good enough to make that workable.  

 

And in lieu of Cobb or Lynn?  Well then go get a DH and just put your foot down on the offensive side of the game.  Either way, this current roster is too middling for my liking.  And that looks like a wasted opportunity.

Edited February 18, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's weird, usually when there is a BABIP discrepancy, you see it in bWAR vs fWAR. But both of those peg him at replacement level for 2017.

[Teflon]

Odorizzi pitched fewer than 5 innings in 10 of his 28 starts in 2017. That number was 4 in 2016 in 33 starts. His walks per 9 innings also increased from 2.6 to 3.8 between those two years. If the Twins were getting the 2016 Jake Ordorizzi I would be happy for this deal. He didn't look like the same pitcher in 2017, however. This smacks of Vance Worley.

[Tom Froemming]

One last thing from me and then I'll hang up and listen

 

Even if you don't like Odorizzi, Jermaine Palacios was buried behind a bunch of other shortstops. Furthermore, he's going to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft at the end of this season. It's tough to imagine the Twins would've added him to the 40-man roster. Would he get taken in the draft? Maybe, maybe not, but it's entirely possible the Twins would've lost Palacios at the end of the year and gotten absolutely nothing in return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

His BABIP prior to 2017 was .279. So using that rate instead, that would put us at something like 21 more hits, or less than a hit per start. If those are bases-clearing doubles, you've got issues. If those are two-out singles with the bases empty, big whoop. Not all hits are created equal, that's why we don't use batting average as the primary way to evaluate hitters anymore, right?

Per Fangraphs, his low BABIP was worth 2.2 wins alone in 2017 ("BIP-Wins"). Even with a .271 BABIP in 2015-2016, they had him gaining 1+ wins from low BABIP each of those seasons -- I guess it was still low relative to league/park.