Article: Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects: #4 Stephen Gonsalves

[mikelink45]

 

He is a guy that has started the year the same place he ended the year before and now we are going to give him a shot in the majors, doesn't that seem like the Twins would be setting him up to fall flat on his face, so the first 5 years in the minors seemed to work really well, but lets change what has been working?

Romero has been in the minors since 2012 (yes I know he had TJ) but at this point I don't think you can consider anything he does as advancing quickly IMO.

I would love for Berrios, Gonzo and Romero to be our Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz or something even close but we all need to temper our expectations a bit on when this is going to happen.

Remember a few years ago when the Mets had a rotation of pitchers with maybe the greatest stuff every (Smoltz said himself they were better then the Braves top 3/4) and how has that worked out?

I am ready to take a chance.  What are our options?  Do you think Slegers really has potential?  It we do not get Cobb or Lynn is there anyone out there with the potential to make us better?  I am not a believer in Hughes, Pineda is not ready.  Put the young guys in.  Like I said before they can be pulled when Santana comes back.  I do not care if it is Gonsalves or Romero or both.  But I want us to do something to move us forward - especially towards 2019.

[Darius]

If you can dial it up to 93-94 as a left handed starter, that's pretty darn good.

 

I think Gio Gonzales is pretty good comp (not just because the names are phonetically similar). The way he's pitched with velocity declining late in his career is a pretty good blueprint for Gonsalves. Both have decent fastballs, big looping curveballs, sliders and changeups.

 

Gonzales has the better curveball, and Gonsalves has the better changeup, but they're pretty similar.

[strumdatjaguar]

So the tall lanky, lean lefty is seeking advice from David Wells who is the polar opposite physically.   

[Tomj14]

 

I am ready to take a chance.  What are our options?  Do you think Slegers really has potential?  It we do not get Cobb or Lynn is there anyone out there with the potential to make us better?  I am not a believer in Hughes, Pineda is not ready.  Put the young guys in.  Like I said before they can be pulled when Santana comes back.  I do not care if it is Gonsalves or Romero or both.  But I want us to do something to move us forward - especially towards 2019.

The options are bad since we didn't get Darvish and didn't trade for somebody. I would rather have a cheap 1 year deal than force Gonzo or Romero into something they are not ready for and end up with Slegers and Hughes anyway and nobody after them.

 

[rdehring]

Throwing 90+ is nice, but not mandatory to be successful.  Especially as a left hander.

 

Was talking to an old lefty 10-15 years ago.  When someone else asked about throwing hard, he pointed out he never got close to 90.  But if you hit your spots, every time with every pitch, you can be very successful.  Although it was a different time, he was more successful than any lefty ever...if you go by the number of major league wins!

 

Gonsalves throws low to mid-90's.  Plenty hard if he can put all three of his best pitches where he wants em,

[Thrylos]

The issue I have with Gonsalves is that I am not sure how his fastball will translate in the majors, and if that does not translate, he will be more like Dan Serafini than Jason Vargas.  Vargas is a good comparable, btw, as far as a lefty whose best pitch is a plus plus (or close to) change up and his fastball is not quite there.

 

Gonsalves's fastball's (89-91 btw, and sporadically higher) issue is its location.  He throws at 3/4 and the fastball does not really move down the zone much.  He gets minor leaguers to swing and miss up the zone or get grounders because it has a high spin and they have a hard time squaring the barrel of the bat to it.  Major leaguers take these belt high and higher fastballs to the concessions.  

 

That already happened to him at AAA last season and that league is full of people who can hit the fastball.  He usually averaged about 0.2 to 0.3 HR/9 previously.  In AAA he gave up 1.6 HR/9.  And then he riles and started to try to paint the corners and walked a career high 4.9 per 9...

 

Unless he gets move movement and he throws it lower in the strike zone with plus command, he will be dead meat in the majors, because even if your change up is plus, if major leaguers are sitting it...

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

Our individual rankings:

 

Seth (2), Nick (4), Cody (3), Tom (5).

[beckmt]

I have the same concern, major leaguers will foul off the very hard to hit pitches from Gonsalves and cream the mistakes.  Can he be fine enough to get major league hitters out on a regular basis, time will tell (and so will year 2).

[laloesch]

 

I am ready to take a chance.  What are our options?  Do you think Slegers really has potential?  It we do not get Cobb or Lynn is there anyone out there with the potential to make us better?  I am not a believer in Hughes, Pineda is not ready.  Put the young guys in.  Like I said before they can be pulled when Santana comes back.  I do not care if it is Gonsalves or Romero or both.  But I want us to do something to move us forward - especially towards 2019.

 

Well if the Twins don't add Cobb or Lynn and don't trade for a starter i gotta imagine they'll roll with Berrios leading the rotation followed by Gibson, Meija, Slegers and Enns. 

 

It also depends on Hughes status.  If he's healthy i think the Twins give him every opportunity to start regardless of results the first couple of weeks because they are short experienced starters.  The way i see it 2019 is likely a lost season now that Santana is down the first two months unless they add a quality starter to the rotation or someone else takes a major step forward besides Berrios. 

 

The improved bullpen will certainly help but it likely won't be enough.  The way i see it let's give the youngsters their chance to step forward and shine.  I'm also not opposed to reaching down deep to Chattanooga depending on where Littell and Romero start.  Heck Thorpe might get a look later in the season if he pitches well this year.  

[Tom Froemming]

It's going to be a lot of fun when Gonsalves makes his debut and we get a look at some of his measurables. I'd be willing to bet he has some really unique attributes -- release point/extension or spin rates -- that would provide some explanation as to why he's been so effective. The Twins have access to those things, but that data is not yet public on the minor leaguers.

[mikelink45]

 

The options are bad since we didn't get Darvish and didn't trade for somebody. I would rather have a cheap 1 year deal than force Gonzo or Romero into something they are not ready for and end up with Slegers and Hughes anyway and nobody after them.

I agree with the options are bad, but I have faith in young people to meet challenges - maybe it comes from all my years teaching college, but some can really rise to the challenge and I say go for it. 

[bird]

 

So the tall lanky, lean lefty is seeking advice from David Wells who is the polar opposite physically.   

 

If he teaches Gonsalves how to aim an occasional FB at the belt buckle of a guy who's crowding the plate, that might be good.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I really hope he continues to pitch well. I hope some of his struggles in AAA (he had an ERA over 5) can be ironed out. I think they will as he is coming into the year fully healthy. It really doesn’t sound like he’s that far off, if his breaking pitches are improved he’ll be a better pitcher.

[Shaitan]

David Wells helping the Twins? That's un-possible.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Remember when Kohl Stewart was a higher ranked and more highly regarded prospect than Gonsalves?

 

That seems like a long time ago.

[Kirbek]

This pitcher is the one we have been waiting for.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm really hoping Gonsalves has a high floor and can stick around for quite a while in the middle-back end of the rotation.  It's hard to expect a lot more than that from a pitcher who relies on control and some deception, and doesn't have the most filthy or overpowering of stuff.  People have comp'd Gonsalves to Jaime Garcia, but I just don't see it.  Garcia has a tight windup and release, and throws some loopy stuff.  Gonsalves is long and loose and slings the ball, more like a poor-man's Chris Sale. 

 

But my favorite comp is to Jeremy Hellickson.  Though Hellickson is a righty, watch the two pitching and you'll see that they have the same delivery and same approach to getting batters out.  They have very similar minor league numbers.  Hellickson was very successful his first two years in the majors, though his K/9 numbers dropped drastically in the majors from the minors.  I think to be honest we should expect the same thing from Gonsalves.  But if Gonsalves can stay healthy and pitch to an ERA in the mid to high 3's, he could be a big help to the team for at least a few years.

 

If his changeup is plus plus as mentioned in the article, I think calling Gonsalves a control/deception guys is unfair. We did have some kid named Santana who had quite the career off of a good changeup. Not saying Gonsalves is the next Johan, but that kind of a pitch can make for a long and above average major league career.