Article: Minnesota's Winter Of Discontent

[Tomj14]

 

a. it is not like they won the World Series and b. it is not like Dozier was not part of the 103 loss team as well...

Couldn't an argument be made that maybe if they would have traded prospects instead of Dozier and Santana maybe they could have went further? Gray, Darvish, verlander for example?

[USAFChief]

I for one don't have a problem with the patience they've exhibited, and if they don't land a new arm for the rotation, I'm OK with that too at this point. They have nine or ten guys who all could be capable, and out of those 9-10, a few will rise to the top.

 

Ervin Santana

Jose Berrios

Kyle Gibson

Adalberto Mejia

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

Aaron Slegers

Stephen Gonsalves

Fernando Romero

Zach Littell

 

Granted, the last three on the list all need more AAA seasoning, but I'm OK with seeing what they have out of these 11 over the course of the first three months of the season, and if they have a need, make a deal in July.

Just my opinion, but entering the season with that staff is basically throwing up a white flag.

 

That is not a staff capable of competing. Ever.

[kab21]

 

You think you are getting more than a top fifty prospect for him? I predict Dozier is gone after this year, another year of a great player wasted.

Yes, I think they should get more than a top 50 prospect for a 4-5+ WAR player. This isn't even remotely a consideration for me. Dozier is very good and apparently underappreciated (by more than just Thrylos).

 

If they can't they should keep him and the production that he will provide this season.

[bird]

 

I thought you couldn't have a long term winning team, that small market teams went in cycles?

 

I don't think anyone would argue that you can avoid cycling up and down in this business, so the objective probably has to be shallower down cycles and shorter cycles. I think that's really what Falvey is talking about when he talks about sustained long term success, and what drives every decision strategically. 

 

We all know that the difference between a .500 season and a wild card season can come down to one or two performance flops or injuries, or maybe one failure on the part of the GM to fill a hole. Falvey knows this. I disagree with the notion that he's intentionally going to compromise 2018 while thinking about 2019.  But I also think he does his calculations one opportunity at a time, sets his "price", and won't compromise 2021 while thinking about 2018. I think he would have loved it if either Ohtani or Darvish signed with the Twins-at his price.

 

I do have this nagging suspicion and doubt about Falvey finding a rotation solution that he believes is truly a solution and that he truly believes can be had at a prospect price that he can live with. If he doesn't think either Cobb or Lynn move the needle enough to justify their asking price, I'm not sure where he goes other than to load up on the Tillman-type long shots and roll the dice on guys like Slegers and Gonsalves for 2018. I just don't see a trade happening here because I think he puts a higher value on the prospects than even many of us do. 

 

 

[SarasotaBill]

Patience.

 

Let's wait and see what happens with the remaining free agents.

 

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Should’ve gotten Cole. Would’ve rather have gotten him than Yu. Now they’re pretty much screwed, though Alex Cobb would be an OK participation trophy.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

The point is that Dozier will not get them to the next level (He did not.  Fact.)  Same with Santana.  Young top of the rotation controllable pitching will.  And if they need to add some second level prospects (eg. Gonsalves, Kirilloff etc) to get it, in addition to the veterans, they should go for it.

 

Last I checked, baseball is a team sport. The Angels had Mike Trout for the past several years – arguably the best player in baseball. Did he get them to the postseason last year?

 

One cannot blame one or two players for a failure to get a team - any team - to the playoffs. Baseball is a team sport.

[bobs]

 

Don't sleep on Berrios!

True.  Looking more like a top-end #2 to me.  Maybe that's Romero's ceiling as well?  Hosken Powell...Bombo Rivera...and Disco Danny Ford.  Love the '70's!

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I'm not high on Adalberto Mejia or Trevor May. I think Phil Hughes has a better chance in 2018 to be an impactful starter than either Mejia or May. The reason: He's done it before. Mejia and Mays have not.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

If the Twins DO NOT add another starter, I predict the rotation at the beginning of the season will be Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia, with Mejia being sent down when Ervin Santana returns. May, when he's ready, may get an extended try, or could land in the bullpen for the year. I think the latter is actually more probable.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I am hopeful that Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and/or Zach Littell will be brought up at some point, but I think they need more seasoning at AAA.  Any more injuries in spring training, without adding to the roster, would bump at least one into the rotation – sink or swim.

[KirbyDome89]

I'm not sure why this FO is still getting credit for "being patient." If "patient," is redefined to mean excessive frugality to the point of harming the team I'll give credit where it's due. 

 

I was all for trading Dozier last offseason, but they didn't. Holding onto Dozier is a win-now move. I didn't think MN was close to that point, but I was wrong and essentially every member of the young core took strides forward last season. The FO got a lot of credit for feeling out the organization and having the foresight to hold onto Dozier and/or Santana, although I do question how much of those decisions was foresight and how much was simply an unwillingness to walk in and blow things up. Either way, it worked out last year, but they haven't done anything to address their most significant need in either of the last two off seasons. That doesn't mesh with the win-now theme.

 

Refusing to sign front end FA pitchers to long term deals, no matter how desperate the need, means they're counting on prospects to fill in the gaping holes on the roster. That isn't going to happen within the next year or possibly two, so as of now it looks like they're more focused on the future. That runs opposite of the message sent all last offseason. 

 

The trade deadline was a microcosm of these last few off seasons; flipping back and forth, a lack of significant transactions to push the club in any discernible direction, and ultimately a team that suffers for it. 

 

These moves, or lack thereof, are the same half measures that everybody is tired of, except this time they're on a larger scale.

[mikelink45]

 

That's fair, but if you have to do 4/60 to land Cobb, maybe you'd rather do 1/10 (with a team option) for Garcia, especially if you believe in prospects arriving sooner rather than later.

Nope - of course Garcia is already signed, but even if not - I am not his fan.

[FormerMinnasotan]

To be honest I am not too upset the Twins didn’t land Darvish, I knew it was more possible they didn’t get him rather than get him. But where I am angry is the lack of motivation to sign an impact starter with the 3 remaining starting pitching free agents. Even if Santana was healthy we knew we are a starter away of competing this year. I mean expectations are higher now so IMO we have to work to meet it. I mean if in the end we sign a lower level starting pitching free agent (who lasts as long as Jason Marquis) and then declare “there’s nothing else we could have done” it looks to the fans the FO doesn’t care to be a winning franchise. I am hopeful Gonsalves and Romero are impact pitchers this year, but that is an unrealistic expectation since neither pitcher has pitched even an inning of big league ball. What makes me mad is it was set up so well for us to make a big slash in free agency and yet, it’s the same old conservative bs.

[howieramone2]

 

I thought you couldn't have a long term winning team, that small market teams went in cycles?

Baseball is cyclical for mid-market teams, but the period the competitive window is open varies. You should know by now we are a mid-market team, not a small market team.

 

Let me repeat something I have said before. Note, I will not guarantee it, I will merely foretell it. When the 2021 seasons ends, we will look back and see we were in the hunt 6 of the past 7 years. I know this will be disappointing to some.

Edited February 16, 2018 by howieramone2

[Mike Sixel]

No one here will be disappointed if the team is good. Seriously.

 

The point holds for mid market teams, not sure why that was what you argued .

[howieramone2]

 

They knew what they were getting into. They chose this. They aren't in a tough spot at all.

That's correct and they will not be in a tough spot until the fat lady sings.

[howieramone2]

 

We are all trying our best to figure out why the front office is so reluctant to improve our starting pitching when we look very impressive in all other phases of the game. My only guess is that they think our young prospects are ready to prove that they are at least as good as the free agents they refuse to sign or trade for? If they find they are wrong a month into the season, I hope they have at least laid the groundwork to quickly fix it.

I don't think this is correct, but none the less, I'm rethinking Mejia and Gonsalves. I like them both.

[Danchat]

 

I'm not high on Adalberto Mejia or Trevor May. I think Phil Hughes has a better chance in 2018 to be an impactful starter than either Mejia or May. The reason: He's done it before. Mejia and Mays have not.

Really? Hughes' numbers starting the past two seasons:

2016: 11 starts, 5.97 ERA, hitters hit .846 OPS, 5.0 K/9

2017: 9 starts, 5.74 ERA, hitters hit .875 OPS, 5.7 K/9

 

And he's coming off of another round of surgery... I just can't see how he could be "impactful" in the rotation. Compare that to Mejia and May:

Mejia 2017: 21 starts, 4.50 ERA, hitters hit .822 OPS, 7.8 K/9

May 2015: 15 starts, 4.37 ERA, hitters hit .753 OPS, 7.95 K/9

 

It's hard to speculate if May could be the same in the rotation, but I think Mejia will improve off of his 2017 numbers, so I just can't see how Hughes will be better than both of them. IMO Phil looks like he's nearing the end of the line.

[howieramone2]

 

Totally agree with this message, and I'll up it one:

 

To have a

 

 

 

 

you will need a long-term sustainable top of the rotation starting pitching pipeline. 

 

The Twins pipeline of top of the rotation long-term controlled starting pitching is not that great.  And you cannot rebuild a pipeline in a season.  I think that there are pitchers coming up that they can help the Twins around 2020-2021 time (Graterol, Enlow) but other than Berrios and maybe Romero there is not much there between then and now.  That's why getting someone like Darvish (or even better Cole or Archer) to cover that gap was essential.

 

They need to get there this season, and they should look at plan B and see what they can get by trading Dozier and Santana.  I still think that it was a huge mistake not trading Dozier last season (we don't know the offers, but even for De Leon+)  They better not repeat it.

You don't break up a winning team. I remember before last season, members wanted to trade those 2 for pie-in-the sky which would have dragged out the rebuild until the 2020's.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Really? Hughes' numbers starting the past two seasons:

2016: 11 starts, 5.97 ERA, hitters hit .846 OPS, 5.0 K/9

2017: 9 starts, 5.74 ERA, hitters hit .875 OPS, 5.7 K/9

 

And he's coming off of another round of surgery... I just can't see how he could be "impactful" in the rotation.

"Impactful" could be in a negative direction too!

[howieramone2]

 

You mean Falvey, Levine and Jim Pohlad were fooling themselves. The fans optimism stemmed from repeated comments from all of them that they were trying to get Darvish.

Which they were. We have already had one meltdown this week where members were allowed to direct their pent up hatred towards the FO. Time to move on, so stop trying to fan the flames. 

[howieramone2]

 

I for one don't have a problem with the patience they've exhibited, and if they don't land a new arm for the rotation, I'm OK with that too at this point. They have nine or ten guys who all could be capable, and out of those 9-10, a few will rise to the top. 

 

Ervin Santana

Jose Berrios

Kyle Gibson

Adalberto Mejia

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

Aaron Slegers

Stephen Gonsalves

Fernando Romero

Zach Littell

 

Granted, the last three on the list all need more AAA seasoning, but I'm OK with seeing what they have out of these 11 over the course of the first three months of the season, and if they have a need, make a deal in July.

I'm not there yet, but agree with your thinking long term. I would make Lynn or Cobb the "P" word.

[slash129]

 

I am hopeful that Aaron Slegers, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and/or Zach Littell will be brought up at some point, but I think they need more seasoning at AAA.  Any more injuries in spring training, without adding to the roster, would bump at least one into the rotation – sink or swim.

I agree with all but Slegers.  He doesn't really need more seasoning at AAA. He put up a solid 150 IP in 2017.  Now that could be his ceiling of success.  If the Twins don't find a veteran or two veterans to fill in this rotation (as irresponsible as it may bet), I would probably advocate for accepting replacement level starts from Slegers for the first couple months on the big club.  I'd rather do that than accelerate Gonsalves and Romero for the sake of need (cough, cough .... Aaron Hicks ... cough, cough).  If Gonsalves mows through 10-12 starts at AAA,  I'm sure he'll be given the first opportunity at that point.  Romero needs to ramp up his innings at AAA and show that he's back and can sustain over a long season before he's being handed the ball every five days.  Littell will probably have the path that Slegers had last season - 140+ IP at AAA, then getting need based spot starts when rosters expand.

 

Honestly, Dietrich Enns has had a successful enough MILB career that 10-12 starts of AAA success this season could warrant some replacement level bridge starts as well.

 

Still hoping for at least one vet signing, so this avenue doesn't have to be explored to deeply.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Really? Hughes' numbers starting the past two seasons:

2016: 11 starts, 5.97 ERA, hitters hit .846 OPS, 5.0 K/9

2017: 9 starts, 5.74 ERA, hitters hit .875 OPS, 5.7 K/9

 

And he's coming off of another round of surgery... I just can't see how he could be "impactful" in the rotation. Compare that to Mejia and May:

Mejia 2017: 21 starts, 4.50 ERA, hitters hit .822 OPS, 7.8 K/9

May 2015: 15 starts, 4.37 ERA, hitters hit .753 OPS, 7.95 K/9

 

It's hard to speculate if May could be the same in the rotation, but I think Mejia will improve off of his 2017 numbers, so I just can't see how Hughes will be better than both of them. IMO Phil looks like he's nearing the end of the line.

 

I noticed you went back to 2015 for May, but not for Hughes. (He was 11-9, 4.40 ERA that year; 2014 was his best season as a Twin, at 16-10, 3.52 ERA) 

 

My point is that i think Hughes could do it again, or come close – he has done it before. You referenced two seasons which were shortened by shoulder injuries and surgery. By all accounts, he's healthy so far this year - note I said so far. I just think, if all three are healthy, Hughes has a better chance of having a positive impact as a starter in 2018 than May or Mejia.  He's done it before. The others haven't.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I agree with all but Slegers.  He doesn't really need more seasoning at AAA. He put up a solid 150 IP in 2017.  Now that could be his ceiling of success.  If the Twins don't find a veteran or two veterans to fill in this rotation (as irresponsible as it may bet), I would probably advocate for accepting replacement level starts from Slegers for the first couple months on the big club.  I'd rather do that than accelerate Gonsalves and Romero for the sake of need (cough, cough .... Aaron Hicks ... cough, cough).  If Gonsalves mows through 10-12 starts at AAA,  I'm sure he'll be given the first opportunity at that point.  Romero needs to ramp up his innings at AAA and show that he's back and can sustain over a long season before he's being handed the ball every five days.  Littell will probably have the path that Slegers had last season - 140+ IP at AAA, then getting need based spot starts when rosters expand.

 

Honestly, Dietrich Enns has had a successful enough MILB career that 10-12 starts of AAA success this season could warrant some replacement level bridge starts as well.

 

Still hoping for at least one vet signing, so this avenue doesn't have to be explored to deeply.

Well said. Good job.

[notoriousgod71]

I think with the rotation as it currently stands this team will be lucky to not start of the season 10 games below .500 in the first 30 games.

[Platoon]

I was amused by the news that the Molitor will maybe go with a 4 man rotation until mid April. I am not sure whether it was Molitor, or the writer who made it seem like this would mitigate the loss of Big Erv. Now if the loss had been one of our numerous candidates to fill the #5 slot, then that would make sense. We may need to devise a metric for "explanations"? Give them some sort of numerical grade. We could call it pWOE. Pronounced Pee Woe. 'pulling Wool Over Eyes'.

[frightwig]

 

Darvish was never coming to Minnesota. Not for a 7yr/$175M. Why would he? He could take a deal with the Cubs and pitch for a better team in a bigger market.

 

Going into the offseason, everybody expected that it would take at least $150/6 to get Darvish.

 

As it turned out, because of a slow market (or collusion), his price came down to $126/6.

 

If you're a team like the Twins, this is a perfect opportunity to get a top FA who normally wouldn't be available to them. All they have to do, the least they could do, is put something interesting on the table to give Darvish something to think about.

 

Try $140/6. It's less than the expected minimum, and a good deal more than the Cubs offer. Or try $126M for 5 years and see what he says. At the very least, they could make the Cubs pay the expected freight.

 

No, instead the Twins float an offer (and make sure the media report on it) that nobody would ever expect Darvish to take, unless the Cubs and Dodgers dropped out of the bidding entirely. They let the Cubs get a steal. And some people insist that the Twins should get props for this. "But they've never bid $100M on anyone before!" Yeah, it's a $100M deal that they knew Darvish was never going to sign. So what was the point?

 

It wasn't a serious offer. Let's be straight about this. It was just a pantomime. A joke.

 

They take us for fools.

[frightwig]

Btw, this is how Darvish's contract is structured, per Cot's:

 

2018 $25M

2019 $20M

2020 $22M

2021 $22M

2022 $19M

2023 $18M

 

*may opt out after 2019

*$2M for Cy Young, $1M for 2nd-5th place in vote

 

This is such a nice deal for the Cubs, it's crazy.

 

If the Twins were serious, is there anyone who thinks that was way beyond their means?

 

Even if he opts out, you have Yu Darvish for $45M over 2 years. And if he doesn't? Fine, you have him for 4 more years at a reasonable salary, well within the Twins' means to pay him, and within the AAV range that they were apparently prepared to pay him. Why didn't they try to compete with that?

 

Did anyone EVER expect that $100M/5 was going to be the winning bid? So, why bother?

 

Like I've said, it's not a surprise to me that the Twins didn't get Darvish. But I really expected them to offer something like $140/6, or some kind of $25M/yr deal, and then Darvish would sign elsewhere for a little more or maybe something way beyond the Twins' means. To see Darvish actually sign such a bargain deal, and the Twins didn't even really try to match or top it, is just... irritating and disappointing.

 

And I wish people wouldn't try to spin it like they did as much as we could expect. Let's be honest. They did not.

Edited February 17, 2018 by frightwig